Solving higher-dimensional continuous time stochastic control problems by value function regression

The paper develops a method to solve higher-dimensional stochasticcontrol problems in continuous time. A finite difference typeapproximation scheme is used on a coarse grid of low discrepancypoints, while the value function at intermediate points is obtainedby regression. The stability properties of the method are discussed,and applications are given to test problems of up to 10 dimensions.Accurate solutions to these problems can be obtained on a personalcomputer.

Cost efficiency in primary care contracting: A stochastic frontier cost function approach

The principal aim of this paper is to estimate a stochastic frontier costfunction and an inefficiency effects model in the analysis of the primaryhealth care services purchased by the public authority and supplied by 180providers in 1996 in Catalonia. The evidence from our sample does not supportthe premise that contracting out has helped improve purchasing costefficiency in primary care. Inefficient purchasing cost was observed in thecomponent of this purchasing cost explicitly included in the contract betweenpurchaser and provider. There are no observable incentives for thecontracted-out primary health care teams to minimise prescription costs, whichare not explicitly included in the present contracting system.

Inventory-routing model, for a multi-period problem with stochastic and deterministic demand

The need for integration in the supply chain management leads us to considerthe coordination of two logistic planning functions: transportation andinventory. The coordination of these activities can be an extremely importantsource of competitive advantage in the supply chain management. The battle forcost reduction can pass through the equilibrium of transportation versusinventory managing costs. In this work, we study the specific case of aninventory-routing problem for a week planning period with different types ofdemand. A heuristic methodology, based on the Iterated Local Search, isproposed to solve the Multi-Period Inventory Routing Problem with stochasticand deterministic demand.

A Hull and White formula for a general stochastic volatility jump-diffusion model with applications to the study of the short-time behavior of the implied volatility

In this paper, generalizing results in Alòs, León and Vives (2007b), we see that the dependence of jumps in the volatility under a jump-diffusion stochastic volatility model, has no effect on the short-time behaviour of the at-the-money implied volatility skew, although the corresponding Hull and White formula depends on the jumps. Towards this end, we use Malliavin calculus techniques for Lévy processes based on Løkka (2004), Petrou (2006), and Solé, Utzet and Vives (2007).

On the short-time behavior of the implied volatility for jump-diffusion models with stochastic volatility

In this paper we use Malliavin calculus techniques to obtain an expression for the short-time behavior of the at-the-money implied volatility skew for a generalization of the Bates model, where the volatility does not need to be neither a difussion, nor a Markov process as the examples in section 7 show. This expression depends on the derivative of the volatility in the sense of Malliavin calculus.

Stochastic evolution of rules for playing normal form games

The evolution of boundedly rational rules for playing normal form games is studied within stationary environments ofstochastically changing games. Rules are viewed as algorithms prescribing strategies for the different normal formgames that arise. It is shown that many of the folk results of evolutionary game theory typically obtained witha fixed game and fixed strategies carry over to the present case. The results are also related to recent experimentson rules and games.

Elongation behaviour of elastic stitch types in household sewing machines: stretch-stitches versus serger overlock stitces

Lectio praecursoria

Improving the prediction of plant species distribution and community composition by adding edaphic to topo-climatic variables

Questions Soil properties have been widely shown to influence plant growth and distribution. However, the degree to which edaphic variables can improve models based on topo-climatic variables is still unclear. In this study, we tested the roles of seven edaphic variables, namely (1) pH; (2) the content of nitrogen and of (3) phosphorus; (4) silt; (5) sand; (6) clay and (7) carbon-to-nitrogen ratio, as predictors of species distribution models in an edaphically heterogeneous landscape. We also tested how the respective influence of these variables in the models is linked to different ecological and functional species characteristics. Location The Western Alps, Switzerland. Methods With four different modelling techniques, we built models for 115 plant species using topo-climatic variables alone and then topo-climatic variables plus each of the seven edaphic variables, one at a time. We evaluated the contribution of each edaphic variable by assessing the change in predictive power of the model. In a second step, we evaluated the importance of the two edaphic variables that yielded the largest increase in predictive power in one final set of models for each species. Third, we explored the change in predictive power and the importance of variables across plant functional groups. Finally, we assessed the influence of the edaphic predictors on the prediction of community composition by stacking the models for all species and comparing the predicted communities with the observed community. Results Among the set of edaphic variables studied, pH and nitrogen content showed the highest contributions to improvement of the predictive power of the models, as well as the predictions of community composition. When considering all topo-climatic and edaphic variables together, pH was the second most important variable after degree-days. The changes in model results caused by edaphic predictors were dependent on species characteristics. The predictions for the species that have a low specific leaf area, and acidophilic preferences, tolerating low soil pH and high humus content, showed the largest improvement by the addition of pH and nitrogen in the model. Conclusions pH was an important predictor variable for explaining species distribution and community composition of the mountain plants considered in our study. pH allowed more precise predictions for acidophilic species. This variable should not be neglected in the construction of species distribution models in areas with contrasting edaphic conditions.

La coordination des dirigeants économiques face à la financiarisation : gouvernance d'entreprise, relations industrielles et élites dirigeantes dans l'industrie suisse des machines, de l'électrotechnique et de la métallurgie (1970-2008)

Résumé Cette recherche analyse les transformations de la gouvernance d'entreprise et des relations industrielles entre 1970 et 2008 dans le contexte suisse, en mettant l'accent sur les changements survenus depuis les années 1990. Elle se centre sur le secteur de l'industrie des machines, de l'électrotechnique et de la métallurgie -noyau historique du capitalisme helvétique et principal employeur et exportateur industriel du pays - et discute l'hypothèse de la convergence des économies coordonnées vers le modèle libéral. Elle examine d'abord les formes de coordination hors-marché qui se sont consolidées entre les élites économiques suisses au cours de la période d'après-guerre. Les stratégies d'innovation incrémentale des grandes sociétés étaient soutenues par une gouvernance marquée par la faible pression des marchés des capitaux, en raison notamment de la forte concentration de l'actionnariat, de mécanismes protectionnistes en matière d'accès au contrôle des sociétés, ainsi que d'une grande interdépendance entre banques et entreprises. Cette interdépendance apparaît dans la forte densité du réseau d'interconnexions des Conseils d'administration, où les principales banques tiennent une place centrale. Le réseau met également en relation les sociétés du secteur entre elles, ainsi qu'avec des firmes actives sur d'autres marchés, ce qui témoigne de l'irréductibilité des stratégies industrielles à une pure logique de compétition centrée sur les marchés. Les stratégies à long terme du management peuvent également s'appuyer sur un système pacifié de relations industrielles, caractérisé par l'autorégulation des acteurs privés dans le cadre d'un partenariat social de branche entre des associations aux stratégies modérées, « néocorporatistes ». Nous analysons alors l'impact de la libéralisation et de la financiarisation de l'économie suisse sur la coordination des élites économiques durant les années 1990. Nous montrons que l'affirmation des fonds d'investissement a déstabilisé le système traditionnel de gouvernance d'entreprise. Ce dernier a ainsi été marqué par l'émergence d'un marché pour le contrôle de l'entreprise -fin du «capital patient » -, la dissolution de l'interdépendance entre banques et industries et plus globalement des formes de coordination hors-marché reposant sur le réseau d'interconnexions des Conseils d'administration, ainsi que par de profondes restructurations des grandes sociétés orientées vers la création de richesse pour les actionnaires. La recherche explore alors les logiques d'interactions entre la sphère de la gouvernance d'entreprise et celle des relations industrielles, l'affirmation du capital financier faisant pression sur le partenariat social dans le sens d'une flexibilisation et déréglementation du marché du travail. Par ailleurs, nous mettons en perspective le rôle central des élites dans le changement institutionnel. Loin de subir la pression des actionnaires, les préférences d'une nouvelle élite managériale au profil financier ont convergé avec les intérêts des investisseurs dans le processus de financiarisation. Ces préférences ont également participé à l'érosion du partenariat social de branche. Du côté syndical, l'émergence -ici aussi - d'une nouvelle élite, académique et issue de la gauche politique, au cours des années 1990, a remis en cause les recettes de l'ancienne génération de syndicalistes ouvriers. La principale association du secteur a ainsi diversifié ses registres d'action en investissant la sphère politique et en relativisant la paix absolue du travail, deux stratégies activement rejetées par le syndicat au cours du régime de croissance d'après-guerre. Tout en mettant la sociologie des élites au service d'une meilleure compréhension des processus de changement institutionnel dans les capitalismes contemporains, cette recherche souligne des logiques de changement différentes dans les sphères sous revue :changement disruptif dans la gouvernance d'entreprise, incrémentai dans les relations industrielles. L'analyse s'est appuyée sur le croisement de différentes méthodes : analyse documentaire, entretiens semi-directifs, analyse du parcours et profil des élites, analyse de réseau, études de cas.

Stochastic resonance in noisy nondynamical systems

We have analyzed the effects of the addition of external noise to nondynamical systems displaying intrinsic noise, and established general conditions under which stochastic resonance appears. The criterion we have found may be applied to a wide class of nondynamical systems, covering situations of different nature. Some particular examples are discussed in detail.

Stochastic Population Projection for Germany - based on the Quadratic Spline approach to modelling age specific fertility rates

This contribution builds upon a former paper by the authors (Lipps and Betz 2004), in which a stochastic population projection for East- and West Germany is performed. Aim was to forecast relevant population parameters and their distribution in a consistent way. We now present some modifications, which have been modelled since. First, population parameters for the entire German population are modelled. In order to overcome the modelling problem of the structural break in the East during reunification, we show that the adaptation process of the relevant figures by the East can be considered to be completed by now. As a consequence, German parameters can be modelled just by using the West German historic patterns, with the start-off population of entire Germany. Second, a new model to simulate age specific fertility rates is presented, based on a quadratic spline approach. This offers a higher flexibility to model various age specific fertility curves. The simulation results are compared with the scenario based official forecasts for Germany in 2050. Exemplary for some population parameters (e.g. dependency ratio), it can be shown that the range spanned by the medium and extreme variants correspond to the s-intervals in the stochastic framework. It seems therefore more appropriate to treat this range as a s-interval covering about two thirds of the true distribution.