中国大陆及邻区地震活动背景、环境触发与地震预测研究

This dissertation that includes most of the P. PH.D research work during 2001~2002 covers the large-scale distribution of continental earthquakes in mainland China, the mechanism and statistic features of grouped strong earthquakes related to the tidal triggering, some results in earthquake prediction with correlativity analysis methods, and the flushes from the two strong continental earthquakes in South Asia in 2001. Mainland China is the only continental sub-plate that is compressed by collision boundaries at its two sides, within which earthquakes are dispersive and distributed as seismic belts with different widths. The control capability of the continental block boundaries on the strong earthquakes and seismic hazards is calculated and analyzed in this dissertation. By mapping the distribution of the 31282 ML:3s2,0 earthquakes, I found that the depth of continental earthquakes depend on the tectonic zonings. The events on the boundaries of relatively integrated blocks are deep and those on the new-developed ruptures are shallow. The average depth of earthquakes in the West of China is about 5km deeper than that in the east. The western and southwestern brim of Tarim Basin generated the deepest earthquakes in mainland China. The statistic results from correlation between the grouped M7 earthquakes and the tidal stress show that the strong events were modulated by tidal stress in active periods. Taking Taiwan area as an example, the dependence of moderate events on the moon phase angles (￡>) is analyzed, which shows that the number of the earthquakes in Taiwan when D is 50° ,50° +90° and 50° +180° is more than 2 times of standard deviation over the average frequency at each degree, corresponding to the 4th, 12th and 19th solar day after the new moon. The probability of earthquake attack to the densely populated Taiwan island on the 4th solar day is about 4 times of that on other solar days. On the practice of earthquake prediction, I calculated and analyzed the temporal correlation of the earthquakes in Xinjinag area, Qinghai-Tibet area, west Yunnan area, North China area and those in their adjacent areas, and predicted at the end of 2000 that it would be a special time interval from 2001 to 2003, within which moderate to strong earthquakes would be more active in the west of China. What happened in 2001 partly validated the prediction. Within 10 months, there were 2 great continental earthquakes in south Asia, i.e., the M7.8 event in India on Jan 26 and M8.1 event in China on Nov. 14, 2001, which are the largest earthquake in the past 50 years both for India and China. No records for two great earthquakes in Asia within so short time interval. We should speculate the following aspects from the two incidences: The influence of the fallacious deployment of seismic stations on the fine location and focal mechanism determination of strong earthquakes must be affronted. It is very important to introduce comparative seismology research to seismic hazard analysis and earthquake prediction research. The improvement or changes in real-time prediction of strong earthquakes with precursors is urged. Methods need to be refreshed to protect environment and historical relics in earthquake-prone areas.

热察绥地区过去300年土地利用覆被变化

The historical land use and land cover changes is one of the key issues in LUCC research. However, the achievement of China in this field doesn't match her position in the world yet. And the reliability of the quantitive records in Chinese historical literature, the basic data for historical land use research, has been doubted. This research focuses on Re-Cha-Sui, a typical area for the farming-pastoral region in the north of China, to make a detailed case study in this field. Based on a deep mining and calibration on the data from massive historical documents and land-use surveys, the author gives a detailed analysis on the administrative region evolution, historical population dynamics, reclamation policy, and the land statistic system. According to textual researches, parallel validation and physical geographical analysis, a unified land use series for recent 300 years, which founded on the results of modern land-use surveys, is constructed. And the thematic maps on the cultivation index for different counties in several temporal sections are plotted. Based on the endeavor above, the dynamic of forest and steppe is reconstructed as well. The temporal-spatial patterns of land use/land cover changes in the area is analyzed. And the influence of different driving forces are discussed. The main conclusions of the research are as followed: 1. The quantitive records in literatures on Re-Cha-Sui area are reflection of real amounts of croplands. It is practical to reconstruct a result comparable with the modern land-use surveys, based of a deep mining and considerate validation on historical documents. The unexceptional negative attitude towards the numerical records in historical documents is unnecessary. 2. In recent 300 years, 3 climax of reclamation appeared in Re-Cha-Sui area and altered the pure pastoral area into a farming-pastoral region. The interval were respectively the early time till mid time of the Qing dynasty, the end of the Qing dynasty till early time of the Republic of China(ROC), and the time after A.D. 1949. After the first expansion, the area of cropland in this region reached 2.0 million ha. Among them, Guisui area, which was most densely cultivated, had a cultivation index over 30%, which is similar with modern situation. The second expansion covered broader area, and the amount of cropland reached 3.5 million ha. The increase of farming area after 1949 is due to the recultivation of abandoned farmland. The current area of cropland in this region is 5.6 million ha. In the southern area where the land was reclaimed early, the amount on of the cropland has some fluctuation in 300 years. While in the new reclaimed area in the north, the area of cropland has kept the trend of increasing. 3. Due to the different natural conditions, most forests in Re-Cha-Sui area distribute in the mountain area of North Hebei province, and the upland of West Liaoning province, especially the former, which has a forest coverage near 70%. However, most of these forests were destroyed before the end of the Qing dynasty. In 1949, the natural forest near Chengde was nearly cleared up. They were partly renewed after 1949 due to plantation. 4. In the steppe zone such as northern Rehe, Suiyuan and Chahar, the area of steppe has a negative correlation with that of cropland. With the expansion of cropland, the percentage of steppe has shrunk from over 80% to 53%. In the mountain area of North Hebei province, steppe expanded with the shrinkage of forest, though cropland was expanding. The percentage once reached 60%, and then fell with the renew of forest. However, in the upland of West Liaoning province, the steppe shrink slowly from original 50% to current 26%, with the expansion of cropland. 5. The land use and land cover change in Re-Cha-Sui area in recent 300 years is driven by various factors, including human dimensions such as population, policy of the government, disorder of the society, cultural tradition, and natural factors such as climate change and natural disasters. Among them, pressure from surplus population is the basic driving force.

人口统计信息空间可视化系统研究

Population research is a front area concerned by domestic and overseas, especially its researches on its spatial visualization and its geo-visualization system design, which provides a sound base for understanding and analysis of the regional difference in population distribution and its spatial rules. With the development of GIS, the theory of geo-visualization more and more plays an important role in many research fields, especially in population information visualization, and has been made the big achievements recently. Nevertheless, the current research is less attention paid to the system design for statistical-geo visualization for population information. This paper tries to explore the design theories and methodologies for statistical-geo-visualization system for population information. The researches are mainly focused on the framework, the methodologies and techniques for the system design and construction. The purpose of the research is developed a platform for population atlas by the integration of the former owned copy software of the research group in statistical mapping system. As a modern tool, the system will provide a spatial visual environment for user to analyze the characteristics of population distribution and differentiate the interrelations of the population components. Firstly, the paper discusses the essentiality of geo-visualization for population information and brings forward the key issue in statistical-geo visualization system design based on the analysis of inland and international trends. Secondly, the geo-visualization system for population design, including its structure, functionality, module, user interface design, is studied based on the concepts of theory and technology of geo-visualization. The system design is proposed and further divided into three parts: support layer, technical layer, user layer. The support layer is a basic operation module and main part of the system. The technical layer is a core part of the system, supported by database and function modules. The database module mainly include the integrated population database (comprises spatial data, attribute data and geographical features information), the cartographic symbol library, the color library, the statistical analysis model. The function module of the system consists of thematic map maker component, statistical graph maker component, database management component and statistical analysis component. The user layer is an integrated platform, which provides the functions to design and implement a visual interface for user to query, analysis and management the statistic data and the electronic map. Based on the above, China's E-atlas for population was designed and developed by the integration of the national fifth census data with 1:400 million scaled spatial data. The atlas illustrates the actual development level of the population nowadays in China by about 200 thematic maps relating with 10 map categories(environment, population distribution, sex and age, immigration, nation, family and marriage, birth, education, employment, house). As a scientific reference tool, China's E-atlas for population has already received the high evaluation after published in early 2005. Finally, the paper makes the deep analysis of the sex ratio in China, to show how to use the functions of the system to analyze the specific population problem and how to make the data mining. The analysis results showed that: 1. The sex ratio has been increased in many regions after fourth census in 1990 except the cities in the east region, and the high sex ratio is highly located in hilly and low mountain areas where with the high illiteracy rate and the high poor rate; 2. The statistical-geo visualization system is a powerful tool to handle population information, which can be used to reflect the regional differences and the regional variations of population in China and indicate the interrelations of the population with other environment factors. Although the author tries to bring up a integrate design frame of the statistical-geo visualization system, there are still many problems needed to be resolved with the development of geo-visualization studies.

乡镇级人口统计数据空间化研究

Population data which collected and saved according to administrative region is a kind of statistical data. As a traditional method of spatial data expression, average distribution in every administrative region brings population data on a low spatial and temporal precision. Now, an accurate population data with high spatial resolution is becoming more and more important in regional planning, environment protection, policy making and rural-urban development. Spatial distribution of population data is becoming more important in GIS study area. In this article, the author reviewed the progress of research on spatial distribution of population. Under the support of GIS, correlative geographical theories and Grid data model, Remote Sensing data, terrain data, traffic data, river data, resident data, and social economic statistic were applied to calculate the spatial distribution of population in Fujian province, which includes following parts: (1) Simulating of boundary at township level. Based on access cost index, land use data, traffic data, river data, DEM, and correlative social economic statistic data, the access cost surface in study area was constructed. Supported by the lowest cost path query and weighted Voronoi diagram, DVT model (Demarcation of Villages and Towns) was established to simulate the boundary at township level in Fujian province. (2) Modeling of population spatial distribution. Based on the knowledge in geography, seven impact factors, such as land use, altitude, slope, residential area, railway, road, and river were chosen as the parameters in this study. Under the support of GIS, the relations of population distribution to these impact factors were analyzed quantificationally, and the coefficients of population density on pixel scale were calculated. Last, the model of population spatial distribution at township level was established through multiplicative fusion of population density coefficients and simulated boundary of towns. (3) Error test and analysis of population spatial distribution base on modeling. The author not only analyzed the numerical character of modeling error, but also its spatial distribution. The reasons of error were discussed.

社会形势预警的几种建模方法比较

Based on social survey data conducted by local research group in some counties executed in the nearly past five years in China, the author proposed and solved two kernel problems in the field of social situation forecasting: i) How can the attitudes’ data on individual level be integrated with social situation data on macrolevel; ii) How can the powers of forecasting models’ constructed by different statistic methods be compared? Five integrative statistics were applied to the research: 1) algorithm average (MEAN); 2) standard deviation (SD); 3) coefficient variability (CV); 4) mixed secondary moment (M2); 5) Tendency (TD). To solve the former problem, the five statistics were taken to synthesize the individual and mocrolevel data of social situations on the levels of counties’ regions, and form novel integrative datasets, from the basis of which, the latter problem was accomplished by the author: modeling methods such as Multiple Regression Analysis (MRA), Discriminant Analysis (DA) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) were used to construct several forecasting models. Meanwhile, on the dimensions of stepwise vs. enter, short-term vs. long-term forecasting and different integrative (statistic) models, meta-analysis and power analysis were taken to compare the predicting power of each model within and among modeling methods. Finally, it can be concluded from the research of the dissertation: 1) Exactly significant difference exists among different integrative (statistic) models, in which, tendency (TD) integrative models have the highest power, but coefficient variability (CV) ones have the lowest; 2) There is no significant difference of the power between stepwise and enter models as well as short-term and long-term forecasting models; 3) There is significant difference among models constructed by different methods, of which, support vector machine (SVM) has the highest statistic power. This research founded basis in all facets for exploring the optimal forecasting models of social situation’s more deeply, further more, it is the first time methods of meta-analysis and power analysis were immersed into the assessments of such forecasting models.

国有企业管理者裁员决策特征及其对留岗者心理影响的研究

In China, orgnizational change and downsizing are the primary topics studied in I/O psychology and Human Resource Management. Due to the great need in reality, both theorists and practitioners raised the same questions: Does downsizing increase the organizational performance? What is the relationship between organizational downsizing strategies and survivors' psychological reations? Which factors influence managers' downsizing decision-making most? How can managers manage the process successfully? The purpose of this study is trying to answer these questions, and then to establish the downsizing decision-making model of China's SOE (State owned enterprise) managers. The hypothetical model of SOE managers' downsizing decision-making was put forward, based on a tremendous amount of literature on downsizing decision-making, especially on the downsizing decision-making model built by B. Shaw, and also based on the results of the interviews conducted to the SOE managers who have the downsizing decision-making experiences. In order to test and verify the model, 322 SOE managers were investigated by a questionnaire study. And the statistic results supported the hypothetical downsizing decision-making model. Further, 259 survivors (those who are still working in the SOEs) from 7 downsized SOEs and 1 non-downsizing SOE, were also investigated by a questionnaire study. The statistic results also supported the hypothetical downsizing decision-making model. A subsequent case study was performed upon one downsized SOE; and a deliberate focus group interview study within 6 SOE mangers from another downsized SOE was also conducted. Both fundings from the two studies surported the hypothetical model again. Thus, China's SOE managers' downsizing decision-making model was established. This China's SOE managers' downsizing decision-making model suggests the following: Firstly, the characteristics of managers'downsizing decision-making were the center of the model. Those characteristics displayed during the process of the downsizing decision planning, the participation of downsizing decision-making and the communication concerning downsizing events, were influenced by managers' sense of crisis, controlling factors out of the organization and the managing experience within it. Especially, the latter two factors were more important. Secondly, in downsizing decision-making problems, the perceived crisis of China's SOE managers was mainly influenced by the outer factors, esp. the controlling factors from the government or the high authorities, but not by the inner factors including manufacturing management, HRM skills and organizational competition strategies. Thirdly, survivors'psychological reactions (including job satisfaction, job motivation, team working cooperation, etc) were mainly influenced by the characteristics of the managers' downsizing decision-making, at the same time, also by the outer factors (including controlling and social security factors) and the inner factors (including competition strategy and HRM skills). Finally, according to the model and the results from this study, the conclusions were reached in the followings: The stronger the controlling effort upon the SOE managers, the worse the effect displayed during the downsizing process. And in order to improve the effect and quality of downsizing decision-making, SOE managers need a lot of training to ameliorate their competencies such as competition strategies and HRM skills.

汉字形音义加工时间进程的事件相关电位（ERP）研究

The time-courses of orthographic, phonological and semantic processing of Chinese characters were investigated systematically with multi-channel event-related potentials (ERPs). New evidences concerning whether phonology or semantics is processed first and whether phonology mediates semantic access were obtained, supporting and developing the new concept of repetition, overlapping, and alternating processing in Chinese character recognition. Statistic parameter mapping based on physiological double dissociation has been developed. Seven experiments were conducted: I) deciding which type of structure, left-right or non-left-right, the character displayed on the screen was; 2) deciding whether or not there was a vowel/a/in the pronunciation of the character; 3) deciding which classification, natural object or non-natural object, the character was; 4) deciding which color, red or green, the character was; 5) deciding which color, red or green, the non-character was; 6) fixing on the non-character; 7) fixing on the crosslet. The main results are: 1. N240 and P240:N240 and P240 localized at occipital and prefrontal respectively were found in experiments 1, 2, 3, and 4, but not in experiments 5, 6, or 7. The difference between the former 4 and the latter 3 experiments was only their stimuli: the former's were true Chinese characters while the latter's were non-characters or crosslet. Thus Chinese characters were related to these two components, which reflected unique processing of Chinese characters peaking at about 240 msec. 2. Basic visual feature analysis: In comparison with experiment 7 there was a common cognitive process in experiments 1, 2, 4, and 6 - basic visual feature analysis. The corresponding ERP amplitude increase in most sites started from about 60 msec. 3. Orthography: The ERP differences located at the main processing area of orthography (occipital) between experiments 1, 2, 3, 4 and experiment 5 started from about 130 msec. This was the category difference between Chinese characters and non-characters, which revealed that orthographic processing started from about 130 msec. The ERP differences between the experiments 1, 2, 3 and the experiment 4 occurred in 210-250, 230-240, and 190-250 msec respectively, suggesting orthography was processed again. These were the differences between language and non-language tasks, which revealed a higher level processing than that in the above mentioned 130 msec. All the phenomena imply that the orthographic processing does not finished in one time of processing; the second time of processing is not a simple repetition, but a higher level one. 4. Phonology: The ERPs of experiment 2 (phonological task) were significantly stronger than those of experiment 3 (semantic task) at the main processing areas of phonology (temporal and left prefrontal) starting from about 270 msec, which revealed phonologic processing. The ERP differences at left frontal between experiment 2 and experiment 1 (orthographic task) started from about 250 msec. When comparing phonological task with experiment 4 (character color decision), the ERP differences at left temporal and prefrontal started from about 220 msec. Thus phonological processing may start before 220 msec. 5. Semantic: The ERPs of experiment 3 (semantic task) were significantly stronger than those of experiment 2 (phonological task) at the main processing areas of semantics (parietal and occipital) starting from about 290 msec, which revealed semantic processing. The ERP differences at these areas between experiment 3 and experiment 4 (character color decision) started from about 270 msec. The ERP differences between experiment 3 and experiment 1 (orthographic task) started from about 260 msec. Thus semantic processing may start before 260 msec. 6. Overlapping of phonological and semantic processing: From about 270 to 350 msec, the ERPs of experiment 2 (phonological task) were significantly larger than those of experiment 3 (semantic task) at the main processing areas of phonology (temporal and left prefrontal); while from about 290-360 msec, the ERPs of experiment 3 were significantly larger than those of experiment 2 at the main processing areas of semantics (frontal, parietal, and occipital). Thus phonological processing may start earlier than semantic and their time-courses may alternate, which reveals parallel processing. 7. Semantic processing needs part phonology: When experiment 1 (orthographic task) served as baseline, the ERPs of experiment 2 and 3 (phonological and semantic tasks) significantly increased at the main processing areas of phonology (left temporal and frontal) starting from about 250 msec. The ERPs of experiment 3, besides, increased significantly at the main processing areas of semantics (parietal and frontal) starting from about 260 msec. When experiment 4 (character color decision) served as baseline, the ERPs of experiment 2 and 3 significantly increased at phonological areas (left temporal and frontal) starting from about 220 msec. The ERPs of experiment 3, similarly, increased significantly at semantic areas (parietal and frontal) starting from about270 msec. Hence, before semantic processing, a part of phonological information may be required. The conclusion could be got from above results in the present experimental conditions: 1. The basic visual feature processing starts from about 60 msec; 2. Orthographic processing starts from about 130 msec, and repeats at about 240 msec. The second processing is not simple repetition of the first one, but a higher level processing; 3. Phonological processing begins earlier than semantic, and their time-courses overlap; 4. Before semantic processing, a part of phonological information may be required; 5. The repetition, overlapping, and alternating of the orthographic, phonological and semantic processing of Chinese characters could exist in cognition. Thus the problem of whether phonology mediates semantics access is not a simple, but a complicated issue.

通过对心理学期刊的几项统计分析看我国十年来儿童发展教育心理学研究状况与动向

In this study, bibliometric method was usded in the investigation of 2274 papers concerning child developmental and educational psychology, which were published during the ten years of 1979-1988, in 14 psychological journals and 97 other scientific journals. According to the quantitative and qualitative analyses, the results are as follows: 1979-1988 saw the rapid development and prosperous period in China's child developmental and educational psychology, During which more papers were published and more fields couched than in the psvious thirty years. The number of literature publications increased and went to the peak in 1983 and 1984, and came down since 1985. The trend was found to result from the decrease in popular science introductions of psychology, which reflected that a heat of psychology had appeared in 1983 and started to cool in 1985. At the mean time, the number of research reports had been holding a steady increase by 1987 and decreased obviously in 1988, especially in the fields of cognitive and social development. There could be several possible explanations of this phenonemon: Piagetian studies are becoming fewer and the eakening of Piaget's influence might predict a period of standstill in the field of developmental psychology in China; As researches become more and more difficult, researchers have turned to be more cautious in lay out their reports; the cutdown of fees and staff could also be one of reasons for less publication in 1988. As the factors mentioned above still exist and their influences last, the number of papers are not expected to increase in the near future. The field of thinking and menory is closely connected with that of artificial intelligence. The downhill situations in these two fileds should be taken seriously. 2. The types of research work are divided on the bases of their problem raising. The trends show that the deepening studies, which represent a comaratively higher level of exploration, are waving fewer, while repeated studies and creative studies are becoming more as the years go along. This fact is worth being further analysed. Big progress could be seen from research methods. The methods currently used are mainly experiment, psychological measurement and assessment, and theoretical reasoning. There is a rapid increase of research by using scales. Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children, Binet Scale and Baley Scale have been revised andstandardized. Chinese researchers have also developed several good scales of their own, some of which are valuable and need to be standardized. In the papers investigated, the amount of citation is significantly lower than the world average level as well as the average citation number of whole China's scientific literature. Among the papers cited, most are of Chinese and English languages, and only a small rate were published in resently five years. The renewal of literature cited seems to stay at a low level in the ten years. Tremendous work could be reflected by the number of subjects used the research work in those ten years: 362665. A lot of studies piled on the period of 4-16 year olds. Compared with the previous thirty years, the age range was much enlarged and there were quite a few studies about preschool, school and adolescent periods. The study of newborn of 0-3 has been a weak point so far and it is a field to which chinese developmental psychologists should pay more attention. The progress in using statistics is one of the most obvious part in the development in the research work of child developmental and educational psychology. The one tendency that should be awared and avoid is to put the cart before the horse: seeking for more sophisticated statistic method while neglecting the meanings of research problems. 3. Citation analysis was used in selecting scholars who had great influence in the field of child developmental and educational psychology. Among the often cited and famous scholars, 31 are Chinese researchers and 12 are Western psychologists. The authoritative journal for child developmental psychology and educational psychology is Acta Psychologica Sinica.

An in silico approach for screening flavonoids as P-glycoprotein inhibitors based on a Bayesian-regularized neural network

P-glycoprotein (P-gp), an ATP-binding cassette (ABC) transporter, functions as a biological barrier by extruding cytotoxic agents out of cells, resulting in an obstacle in chemotherapeutic treatment of cancer. In order to aid in the development of potential P-gp inhibitors, we constructed a quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) model of flavonoids as P-gp inhibitors based on Bayesian-regularized neural network (BRNN). A dataset of 57 flavonoids collected from a literature binding to the C-terminal nucleotide-binding domain of mouse P-gp was compiled. The predictive ability of the model was assessed using a test set that was independent of the training set, which showed a standard error of prediction of 0.146 +/- 0.006 (data scaled from 0 to 1). Meanwhile, two other mathematical tools, back-propagation neural network (BPNN) and partial least squares (PLS) were also attempted to build QSAR models. The BRNN provided slightly better results for the test set compared to BPNN, but the difference was not significant according to F-statistic at p = 0.05. The PLS failed to build a reliable model in the present study. Our study indicates that the BRNN-based in silico model has good potential in facilitating the prediction of P-gp flavonoid inhibitors and might be applied in further drug design.

Moisture conditions in timber cladding: field trial data for Sitka spruce.

Exposure trials on timber cladding are valuable for informing facade designers. This paper describes a trial using Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis). Sitka spruce is the only UK-grown timber available in sufficient volume to supply the growing cladding market, but its suitability is unclear. Data indicated that the moisture content range in timber cladding was wider than generally accepted. The minimum of around 10% moisture content appeared to be similar for all details tested. The maximum was influenced by construction detailing but was around 30%. From a theoretical standpoint, the range, and rate, of moisture content fluctuation observed meant that the commonly quoted average value was largely irrelevant. The mode was a more representative statistic; most of the data were skewed towards the wood's fibre saturation point. Sitka spruce is, therefore, at risk of fungal decay and is only suitable as external cladding in the UK if treated with preservative

Prediction of 30-day mortality in older patients with a first acute myocardial infarction

This study sought predictors of mortality in patients aged >or=75 years with a first ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and evaluated the validity of the GUSTO-I and TIMI risk models. Clinical variables, treatment and mortality data from 433 consecutive patients were collected. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were applied to identify baseline factors associated with 30-day mortality. Subsequently a model predicting 30-day mortality was created and compared with the performance of the GUSTO-I and TIMI models. After adjustment, a higher Killip class was the most important predictor (OR 16.1; 95% CI 5.7-45.6). Elevated heart rate, longer time delay to admission, hyperglycemia and older age were also associated with increased risk. Patients with hypercholesterolemia had a significantly lower risk (OR 0.46; 95% CI 0.24-0.86). Discrimination (c-statistic 0.79, 95% CI 0.75-0.84) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow 6, p = 0.5) of our model were good. The GUSTO-I and TIMI risk scores produced adequate discrimination within our dataset (c-statistic 0.76, 95% CI 0.71-0.81, and c-statistic 0.77, 95% CI 0.72-0.82, respectively), but calibration was not satisfactory (HL 21.8, p = 0.005 for GUSTO-I, and HL 20.6, p = 0.008 for TIMI). In conclusion, short-term mortality in elderly patients with a first STEMI depends most importantly on initial clinical and hemodynamic status. The GUSTO-I and TIMI models are insufficiently adequate for providing an exact estimate of 30-day mortality risk.

Locational distribution of gene functional classes in Arabidopsis thaliana

Riley, M. C., Clare, A., King, R. D. (2007). Locational distribution of gene functional classes in Arabidopsis thaliana. BMC Bioinformatics 8, Article No: 112 Sponsorship: EPSRC / RAEng

Spatial distribution of upland beetles in relation to landform, vegetation and grazing management

Dennis, P., Aspinall, R. J., Gordon, I. J. (2002). Spatial distribution of upland beetles in relation to landform vegetation and grazing management. Basic and Applied Ecology, 3 (2), 183?193. Sponsorship: SEERAD RAE2008

Ewaluacja splotowa InfoKultury. Skala dwuważonych ocen

Pakiet oprogramowania InfoCult™ Analyser 1.4 stanowiącego obudowę książki do pobrania ze strony: ewaluacja.amu.edu.pl

Specyfika skali ważonych ocen

The author describes the essence and characteristics of the novel surveying evaluation scale of the educational process. Balancing between quality, intensity and conclusiveness of expressions is a selective clue to choose indicators i.e. stimulus ascertainments to the survey. On the basis of empirical studies of "Informatics Culture" (computer experience and cognizance) the author discusses quantitative parameters of the scale and the way of representing them in practice. Special attention was paid to a contextual representation of results, to the vector method of the appraisal value of alteration in time; and to the issues of inter-group comparability of the process effects.