A SARIMA forecasting model to predict the number of cases of dengue in Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Forecasting dengue cases in a population by using time-series models can provide useful information that can be used to facilitate the planning of public health interventions. The objective of this article was to develop a forecasting model for dengue incidence in Campinas, southeast Brazil, considering the Box-Jenkins modeling approach. METHODS: The forecasting model for dengue incidence was performed with R software using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. We fitted a model based on the reported monthly incidence of dengue from 1998 to 2008, and we validated the model using the data collected between January and December of 2009. RESULTS: SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1)12 was the model with the best fit for data. This model indicated that the number of dengue cases in a given month can be estimated by the number of dengue cases occurring one, two and twelve months prior. The predicted values for 2009 are relatively close to the observed values. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this article indicate that SARIMA models are useful tools for monitoring dengue incidence. We also observe that the SARIMA model is capable of representing with relative precision the number of cases in a next year.

Evaluation of two sweeping methods for estimating the number of immature Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in large containers

Introduction Here, we evaluated sweeping methods used to estimate the number of immature Aedes aegypti in large containers. Methods III/IV instars and pupae at a 9:1 ratio were placed in three types of containers with, each one with three different water levels. Two sweeping methods were tested: water-surface sweeping and five-sweep netting. The data were analyzed using linear regression. Results The five-sweep netting technique was more suitable for drums and water-tanks, while the water-surface sweeping method provided the best results for swimming pools. Conclusions Both sweeping methods are useful tools in epidemiological surveillance programs for the control of Aedes aegypti.

Sperm tail flexibility test: a simple test for selecting viable spermatozoa for intracytoplasmic sperm injection from semen samples without motile spermatozoa

PURPOSE: The objective was to describe the results of the injection of immotile spermatozoa with flexible tails when only immotile spermatozoa are present in the semen sample. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted to analyze the procedure results for 10 couples who participated in our intracytoplasmic sperm injection program. The sperm tail was considered flexible when it moved up and down independently of the head movement, and it was considered inflexible when the movement occurred together (tail plus head). The fertilization and pregnancy rate were analyzed. RESULTS: The normal fertilization rate (presence of 2 pronuclei) was 30.3% (40/132), and the abnormal fertilization rate (presence of less than or more than 2 pronuclei) was 6.81% (9/132). A total of 52 embryos were obtained with 9 transfer procedures performed (pregnancy rate: 11.12%). CONCLUSIONS: The sperm tail flexibility test (STFT) is an easy and cost-effective way for selecting viable immotile spermatozoa and can be used as an alternative method for determining the viability of spermatozoa. This test seems to be a simple and risk-free method when compared to the swelling test.

An algorithmic approach to estimating the minimal number of periodic points for smooth self-maps of simply-connected manifolds

For a given self-map f of M, a closed smooth connected and simply-connected manifold of dimension m ≥ 4, we provide an algorithm for estimating the values of the topological invariant Dm r [f], which equals the minimal number of r-periodic points in the smooth homotopy class of f. Our results are based on the combinatorial scheme for computing Dm r [f] introduced by G. Graff and J. Jezierski [J. Fixed Point Theory Appl. 13 (2013), 63–84]. An open-source implementation of the algorithm programmed in C++ is publicly available at http://www.pawelpilarczyk.com/combtop/.

Low f-number microlenses for integration on optical microsystems

This paper presents microlenses (MLs) with low f-number made of AZ4562 photoresist for integration on optical microsystems. The fabrication process was based on the thermal reflow and rehydration. Large series of MLs were fabricated with a width of 35 μm, a thickness of 5 μm, and spaced apart by 3 μm. The MLs were fabricated directly on the surface of a die with type n+/p-substrate junction photodiode fabricated in a standard CMOS process. The measured focal length was 49 μm with a tolerance of ±2 μm (maximum error of ±4%), resulting in a numerical aperture of 33.6 × 10-2 (±1.3 × 10-2). The measurements also revealed an f-number of 1.4.

Plantae Asiaticae rariores, or, Descriptions and figures of a select number of unpublished East Indian plants /by N. Wallich.

v.1

Plantae Asiaticae rariores, or, Descriptions and figures of a select number of unpublished East Indian plants /by N. Wallich.

v.2

Plantae Asiaticae rariores, or, Descriptions and figures of a select number of unpublished East Indian plants /by N. Wallich.

v.3

Importancia del Ca2+ en la fisiología espermática: modulación de su actividad por progesterona y proteínas del plasma seminal. Importance of calcium in sperm physiology: its regulation by progesterone and proteins from the seminal plasma.

El objetivo general del proyecto es estudiar el efecto de la progesterona y de algunas proteínas del plasma seminal sobre la actividad del Ca2+ en diferentes procesos fisiológicos que ocurren en el espermatozoide, los cuales están estrechamente relacionados con la capacidad fertilizante de esta célula. La progesterona, principal esteroide secretado por las células del cumulus oophorus, ejerce su efecto a través de un receptor no-genómico provocando aumento en el calcio intracelular de los espermatozoides y, consecuentemente, promoviendo la capacitación, la respuesta quimiotáctica y la exocitosis acrosomal. Pese a estas observaciones, los mecanismos a través de los cuales la progesterona estimula fenómenos tan diversos en el espermatozoide son aún desconocidos. Tampoco se conoce con exactitud el papel funcional y los mecanismos de acción de algunas proteínas del plasma seminal que interaccionan y se unen a los espermatozoides, con alta especificidad, durante la eyaculación. Por lo tanto, resulta altamente interesante profundizar los estudios sobre las propiedades funcionales de las proteínas caltrin (calcium transport inhibitor) y ß-microseminoprotein (MSP) del plasma seminal de mamíferos, las cuales responden a las características mencionadas. Los estudios hasta ahora realizados han dado cuenta de que caltrin inhibe la incorporación de Ca2+ extracelular, previene la exocitosis acrosomal espontánea y promueve la unión espermatozoide-zona pelúcida. También hay datos preliminares que sugieren un efecto inhibitorio sobre la movilidad hiperactivada de los espermatozoides. Respecto a MSP, sólo se sabe que inhibe la exocitosis acrosomal espontánea y que su contenido, en el plasma seminal, guarda una relación inversa con la fertilidad. Por todo lo expuesto, se propone estudiar los mecanismos de acción de la progesterona y las proteínas caltrin y MSP sobre los procesos fisiológicos antes indicados. Para ello, se estudiarán las variaciones de Ca2+ intracelular en espermatozoides individuales sometidos a diferentes tratamientos (gradientes de progesterona, capacitación en presencia y ausencia de caltrin y/o MSP, etc.), usando video microscopía de fluorescencia y análisis computarizado de imágenes. También se examinará la influencia de estas moléculas sobre la interacción de gametas y la fertilización.

Investigation of Copy Number Variation in Children with Conotruncal Heart Defects

Background:Congenital heart defects (CHD) are the most prevalent group of structural abnormalities at birth and one of the main causes of infant morbidity and mortality. Studies have shown a contribution of the copy number variation in the genesis of cardiac malformations.Objectives:Investigate gene copy number variation (CNV) in children with conotruncal heart defect.Methods:Multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA) was performed in 39 patients with conotruncal heart defect. Clinical and laboratory assessments were conducted in all patients. The parents of the probands who presented abnormal findings were also investigated.Results:Gene copy number variation was detected in 7/39 patients: 22q11.2 deletion, 22q11.2 duplication, 15q11.2 duplication, 20p12.2 duplication, 19p deletion, 15q and 8p23.2 duplication with 10p12.31 duplication. The clinical characteristics were consistent with those reported in the literature associated with the encountered microdeletion/microduplication. None of these changes was inherited from the parents.Conclusions:Our results demonstrate that the technique of MLPA is useful in the investigation of microdeletions and microduplications in conotruncal congenital heart defects. Early diagnosis of the copy number variation in patients with congenital heart defect assists in the prevention of morbidity and decreased mortality in these patients.

Bases para o estudo da genética de populações dos Hymenoptera em geral e dos Apinae sociais em particular

This paper deals with problems on population genetics in Hymenoptera and particularly in social Apidae. 1) The studies on populations of Hymenoptera were made according to the two basic types of reproduction: endogamy and panmixia. The populations of social Apinae have a mixed method of reproduction with higher percentage of panmixia and a lower of endogamy. This is shown by the following a) males can enter any hive in swarming time; b) males of Meliponini are expelled from hives which does not need them, and thus, are forced to look for some other place; c) Meliponini males were seen powdering themselves with pollen, thus becoming more acceptable in any other hive. The panmixia is not complete owing to the fact that the density of the breeding population as very low, even in the more frequent species as low as about 2 females and 160 males per reproductive area. We adopted as selection values (or survival indices) the expressions according to Brieger (1948,1950) which may be summarised as follows; a population: p2AA + ²pq Aa + q2aa became after selection: x p2AA + 2pq Aa + z q²aa. For alge-braics facilities Brieger divided the three selective values by y giving thus: x/y p2 AA + y/y 2 pq Aa + z/y q²aa. He called x/y of RA and z/y of Ra, that are survival or selective index, calculated in relation to the heterozygote. In our case all index were calculated in relation to the heterozygote, including the ones for haploid males; thus we have: RA surveval index of genotype AA Ra surveval index of genotype aa R'A surveval index of genotype A R'a surveval index of genotype a 1 surveval index of genotype Aa The index R'A ande R'a were equalized to RA and Ra, respectively, for facilities in the conclusions. 2) Panmitic populations of Hymenoptera, barring mutations, migrations and selection, should follow the Hardy-Weinberg law, thus all gens will be present in the population in the inicial frequency (see Graphifc 1). 3) Heterotic genes: If mutation for heterotic gene ( 1 > RA > Ra) occurs, an equilibrium will be reached in a population when: P = R A + Ra - 2R²a _____________ (9) 2(R A + Ra - R²A - R²a q = R A + Ra - 2R²A _____________ (10) 2(R A + Ra - R²A - R²a A heterotic gene in an hymenopteran population may be maintained without the aid of new mutation only if the survival index of the most viable mutant (RA) does not exced the limiting value given by the formula: R A = 1 + √1+Ra _________ 4 If RA has a value higher thah the one permitted by the formula, then only the more viable gene will remain present in the population (see Graphic 10). The only direct proof for heterotic genes in Hymenoptera was given by Mackensen and Roberts, who obtained offspring from Apis mellefera L. queens fertilized by their own sons. Such inbreeding resulted in a rapid loss of vigor the colony; inbred lines intercrossed gave a high hybrid vigor. Other fats correlated with the "heterosis" problem are; a) In a colony M. quadrifasciata Lep., which suffered severely from heat, the percentage of deths omong males was greater .than among females; b) Casteel and Phillips had shown that in their samples (Apis melifera L). the males had 7 times more abnormalities tian the workers (see Quadros IV to VIII); c) just after emerging the males have great variation, but the older ones show a variation equal to that of workers; d) The tongue lenght of males of Apis mellifera L., of Bombus rubicundus Smith (Quadro X), of Melipona marginata Lep. (Quadro XI), and of Melipona quadrifasciata Lep. Quadro IX, show greater variationthan that of workers of the respective species. If such variation were only caused by subviables genes a rapid increasse of homozigoty for the most viable alleles should be expected; then, these .wild populations, supposed to be in equilibrium, could .not show such variability among males. Thus we conclude that heterotic genes have a grat importance in these cases. 4) By means of mathematical models, we came to the conclusion tht isolating genes (Ra ^ Ra > 1), even in the case of mutations with more adaptability, have only the opor-tunity of survival when the population number is very low (thus the frequency of the gene in the breeding population will be large just after its appearence). A pair of such alleles can only remain present in a population when in border regions of two races or subspecies. For more details see Graphics 5 to 8. 5) Sex-limited genes affecting only females, are of great importance toHymenoptera, being subject to the same limits and formulas as diploid panmitic populations (see formulas 12 and 13). The following examples of these genes were given: a) caste-determining genes in the genus Melipona; b) genes permiting an easy response of females to differences in feeding in almost all social Hymenoptera; c) two genes, found in wild populations, one in Trigona (Plebéia) mosquito F. SMITH (quadro XII) and other in Melipona marginata marginata LEP. (Quadro XIII, colonies 76 and 56) showing sex-limited effects. Sex-limited genes affecting only males do not contribute to the plasticity or genie reserve in hymenopteran populations (see formula 14). 6) The factor time (life span) in Hymenoptera has a particular importance for heterotic genes. Supposing one year to be the time unit and a pair of heterotic genes with respective survival indice equal to RA = 0, 90 and Ra = 0,70 to be present; then if the life time of a population is either one or two years, only the more viable gene will remain present (see formula 11). If the species has a life time of three years, then both alleles will be maintained. Thus we conclude that in specis with long lif-time, the heterotic genes have more importance, and should be found more easily. 7) The colonies of social Hymenoptera behave as units in competition, thus in the studies of populations one must determine the survival index, of these units which may be subdivided in indice for egg-laying, for adaptive value of the queen, for working capacity of workers, etc. 8) A study of endogamic hymenopteran populations, reproduced by sister x brother mating (fig. 2), lead us to the following conclusions: a) without selection, a population, heterozygous for one pair of alleles, will consist after some generations (theoretically after an infinite number of generation) of females AA fecundated with males A and females aa fecundated with males a (see Quadro I). b) Even in endogamic population there is the theoretical possibility of the presence of heterotic genes, at equilibrium without the aid of new mutations (see Graphics 11 and 12), but the following! conditions must be satisfied: I - surveval index of both homozygotes (RA e Ra) should be below 0,75 (see Graphic 13); II - The most viable allele must riot exced the less viable one by more than is permited by the following formula (Pimentel Gomes 1950) (see Gra-fic 14) : 4 R5A + 8 Ra R4A - 4 Ra R³A (Ra - 1) R²A - - R²a (4 R²a + 4 Ra - 1) R A + 2 R³a < o Considering these two conditions, the existance of heterotic genes in endogamic populations of Hymenoptera \>ecames very improbable though not - impossible. 9) Genie mutation offects more hymenopteran than diploid populations. Thus we have for lethal genes in diploid populations: u = q2, and in Hymenoptera: u = s, being u the mutation ratio and s the frequency of the mutant in the male population. 10) Three factors, important to competition among species of Meliponini were analysed: flying capacity of workers, food gathering capacity of workers, egg-laying of the queen. In this connection we refer to the variability of the tongue lenght observed in colonies from several localites, to the method of transporting the pollen in the stomach, from some pots (Melliponi-ni storage alveolus) to others (e. g. in cases of pillage), and to the observation that the species with the most populous hives are almost always the most frequent ones also. 11) Several defensive ways used for Meliponini to avoid predation are cited, but special references are made upon the camouflage of both hive (fig. 5) and hive entrance (fig. 4) and on the mimetism (see list in page ). Also under the same heading we described the method of Lestrimelitta for pillage. 12) As mechanisms important for promoting genetic plasticity of hymenopteran species we cited: a) cytological variations and b) genie reserve. As to the former, duplications and numerical variations of chromosomes were studied. Diprion simile ATC was cited as example for polyploidy. Apis mellife-ra L. (n •= 16) also sugests polyploid origen since: a) The genus Melipona, which belongs to a" related tribe, presents in all species so far studied n = 9 chromosomes and b) there occurs formation of dyads in the firt spermatocyte division. It is su-gested that the origin of the sex-chromosome of Apis mellifera It. may be related to the possible origin of diplo-tetraploidy in this species. With regards to the genie reserve, several possible types of mutants were discussed. They were classified according to their survival indices; the heterotic and neutral mutants must be considered as more important for the genie reserve. 13) The mean radius from a mother to a daghter colony was estimated as 100 meters. Since the Meliponini hives swarm only once a year we may take 100 meters a year as the average dispersion of female Meliponini in ocordance to data obtained from Trigona (tetragonisca) jaty F. SMITH and Melipona marginata LEP., while other species may give different values. For males the flying distance was roughly estimated to be 10 times that for females. A review of the bibliography on Meliponini swarm was made (pg. 43 to 47) and new facts added. The population desity (breeding population) corresponds in may species of Meliponini to one male and one female per 10.000 square meters. Apparently the males are more frequent than the females, because there are sometimes many thousands, of males in a swarm; but for the genie frequency the individuals which have descendants are the ones computed. In the case of Apini and Meliponini, only one queen per hive and the males represented by. the spermatozoos in its spermateca are computed. In Meliponini only one male mate with the queen, while queens of Apis mellijera L. are fecundated by an average of about 1, 5 males. (Roberts, 1944). From the date cited, one clearly sees that, on the whole, populations of wild social bees (Meliponini) are so small that the Sewall Wright effect may become of great importance. In fact applying the Wright's formula: f = ( 1/aN♂ + 1/aN♀) (1 - 1/aN♂ + 1/aN♀) which measures the fixation and loss of genes per generation, we see that the fixation or loss of genes is of about 7% in the more frequent species, and rarer species about 11%. The variation in size, tergite color, background color, etc, of Melipona marginata Lep. is atributed to this genetic drift. A detail, important to the survival of Meliponini species, is the Constance of their breeding population. This Constance is due to the social organization, i. e., to the care given to the reproductive individuals (the queen with its sperm pack), to the way of swarming, to the food storage intended to control variations of feeding supply, etc. 14) Some species of the Meliponini are adapted to various ecological conditions and inhabit large geographical areas (e. g. T. (Tetragonisca jaty F. SMITH), and Trigona (Nanno-trigona testaceicornis LEP.) while others are limited to narrow regions with special ecological conditions (e. g. M. fuscata me-lanoventer SCHWARZ). Other species still, within the same geographical region, profit different ecological conditions, as do M. marginata LEP. and M. quadrifasciata LEP. The geographical distribution of Melipona quadrifasciata LEP. is different according to the subspecies: a) subsp anthidio-des LEP. (represented in Fig. 7 by black squares) inhabits a region fron the North of the S. Paulo State to Northeastern Brazil, ,b) subspecies quadrifasciata LEP., (marked in Fig. 7 with black triangles) accurs from the South of S. Paulo State to the middle of the State of Rio Grande do Sul (South Brazil). In the margined region between these two areas of distribution, hi-brid colonies were found (Fig. 7, white circles); they are shown with more details in fig. 8, while the zone of hybridization is roughly indicated in fig. 9 (gray zone). The subspecies quadrifasciata LEP., has 4 complete yellow bands on the abdominal tergites while anthidioides LEP. has interrupted ones. This character is determined by one or two genes and gives different adaptative properties to the subspecies. Figs. 10 shows certains meteorological isoclines which have aproximately the same configuration as the limits of the hybrid zone, suggesting different climatic adaptabilities for both genotypes. The exis-tance of a border zone between the areas of both subspecies, where were found a high frequency of hybrids, is explained as follows: being each subspecies adapted to a special climatic zone, we may suppose a poor adaptation of either one in the border region, which is also a region of intermediate climatic conditions. Thus, the hybrids, having a combination of the parent qualities, will be best adapted to the transition zone. Thus, the hybrids will become heterotic and an equilibrium will be reached with all genotypes present in the population in the border region.

Algorithm engineering for expression dag based number types

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Informatik, Diss., 2015

Statistical analysis of stress and deformation state in polycrystalline aggregates with a large number of grains

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Maschinenbau, Diss., 2015

Organization of the cysts in bee (Hymenoptera, Apidae) testis: number of spermatozoa per cyst

The morphology of the cyst cells in Apis mellifera Linné, 1758, Scaptotrigona postica Latreille, 1804, and Melipona bicolor bicolor Lepeletier, 1836 testis, as well as the average number of spermatic cells are reported. The data indicates a supporting and nourrishing role of the cyst cells to the developing cystocytes. The counts of immature spermatozoa in the cysts show an average of 202.8 ± 21.2 spermatozoa for A. mellifera, 117.4 ± 8.68 for S. postica and 88.8 ± 15.57 for M. bicolor, which predict the occurrence of 8 mitotic cycles in the cystocytes of A. mellifera and 7 in the meliponines, considering that only one spermatozoom originates of each final spermatogonium.