Model experiment on optimal size of a fish stock with environmental uncertainties

We analyze the effect of environmental uncertainties on optimal fishery management in a bio-economic fishery model. Unlike most of the literature on resource economics, but in line with ecological models, we allow the different biological processes of survival and recruitment to be affected differently by environmental uncertainties. We show that the overall effect of uncertainty on the optimal size of a fish stock is ambiguous, depending on the prudence of the value function. For the case of a risk-neutral fishery manager, the overall effect depends on the relative magnitude of two opposing effects, the 'convex-cost effect' and the 'gambling effect'. We apply the analysis to the Baltic cod and the North Sea herring fisheries, concluding that for risk neutral agents the net effect of environmental uncertainties on the optimal size of these fish stocks is negative, albeit small in absolute value. Under risk aversion, the effect on optimal stock size is positive for sufficiently high coefficients of constant relative risk aversion.

(Table 1) Population density and biomass of the foraminifer Rupertina, and grain size of cores from the Norwegian continental slope

Rupertina stabilis occupies a depth restricted biotope of suspension feeding animals situated at the Norwegian continental margin. It extends from the Voring plateau northwards for at least 200 - 300 km, in depths between 600 and 800 m. This slope position is known for relatively strong bottom currents and shifting watermass boundaries. - The species is attached to hard substrates, mainly stones or hydroid stalks and obviously prefers an elevated position. It is building a permanent cyst of sponge spicules and debris at the apertural region. The spicules are used to support a pseudopodial network similar to that described from Halyphysema (LIPPS 1983). It is believed to serve as a filter apparatus. - A review of known occurences in the Atlantic is given, suggesting a temperature adaption of the species ranging from 0°C to a maximum of 8°C. Specimens were successfully cultured for about 2-3 weeks.