Scheduling satellite-based SAR acquisition for sequential assimilation of water level observations into flood modelling

Satellite-based Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) has proved useful for obtaining information on flood extent, which, when intersected with a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the floodplain, provides water level observations that can be assimilated into a hydrodynamic model to decrease forecast uncertainty. With an increasing number of operational satellites with SAR capability, information on the relationship between satellite first visit and revisit times and forecast performance is required to optimise the operational scheduling of satellite imagery. By using an Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) and a synthetic analysis with the 2D hydrodynamic model LISFLOOD-FP based on a real flooding case affecting an urban area (summer 2007,Tewkesbury, Southwest UK), we evaluate the sensitivity of the forecast performance to visit parameters. We emulate a generic hydrologic-hydrodynamic modelling cascade by imposing a bias and spatiotemporal correlations to the inflow error ensemble into the hydrodynamic domain. First, in agreement with previous research, estimation and correction for this bias leads to a clear improvement in keeping the forecast on track. Second, imagery obtained early in the flood is shown to have a large influence on forecast statistics. Revisit interval is most influential for early observations. The results are promising for the future of remote sensing-based water level observations for real-time flood forecasting in complex scenarios.

A sequential procedure for comparing two experimental treatments with a control

A procedure is described in which patients are randomized between two experimental treatments and a control. At a series of interim analyses, each experimental treatment is compared with control. One of the experimental treatments might then be found sufficiently superior to the control for it to be declared the best treatment, and the trial stopped. Alternatively, experimental treatments might be eliminated from further consideration at any stage. It is shown how the procedure can be conducted while controlling overall error probabilities. Data concerning evaluation of different doses of riluzole in the treatment of motor neurone disease are used for illustration.

Sequential variations of phytoplankton growth and mortality in an NPZ model: a remote-sensing-based assessment

Radiometric data in the visible domain acquired by satellite remote sensing have proven to be powerful for monitoring the states of the ocean, both physical and biological. With the help of these data it is possible to understand certain variations in biological responses of marine phytoplankton on ecological time scales. Here, we implement a sequential data-assimilation technique to estimate from a conventional nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton (NPZ) model the time variations of observed and unobserved variables. In addition, we estimate the time evolution of two biological parameters, namely, the specific growth rate and specific mortality of phytoplankton. Our study demonstrates that: (i) the series of time-varying estimates of specific growth rate obtained by sequential data assimilation improves the fitting of the NPZ model to the satellite-derived time series: the model trajectories are closer to the observations than those obtained by implementing static values of the parameter; (ii) the estimates of unobserved variables, i.e., nutrient and zooplankton, obtained from an NPZ model by implementation of a pre-defined parameter evolution can be different from those obtained on applying the sequences of parameters estimated by assimilation; and (iii) the maximum estimated specific growth rate of phytoplankton in the study area is more sensitive to the sea-surface temperature than would be predicted by temperature-dependent functions reported previously. The overall results of the study are potentially useful for enhancing our understanding of the biological response of phytoplankton in a changing environment.

Benchmarks and the accuracy of GARCH model estimation

This paper reviews nine software packages with particular reference to their GARCH model estimation accuracy when judged against a respected benchmark. We consider the numerical consistency of GARCH and EGARCH estimation and forecasting. Our results have a number of implications for published research and future software development. Finally, we argue that the establishment of benchmarks for other standard non-linear models is long overdue.

A review of existing building benchmarks and the development of a set of reference office buildings for England and Wales

The modern built environment has become more complex in terms of building types, environmental systems and use profiles. This complexity causes difficulties in terms of optimising buildings energy design. In this circumstance, introducing a set of prototype reference buildings, or so called benchmark buildings, that are able to represent all or majority parts of the UK building stock may be useful for the examination of the impact of national energy policies on building energy consumption. This study proposes a set of reference office buildings for England and Wales based on the information collected from the Non-Domestic Building Stock (NDBS) project and an intensive review of the existing building benchmarks. The proposed building benchmark comprises 10 prototypical reference buildings, which in relation to built form and size, represent 95% of office buildings in England and Wales. This building benchmark provides a platform for those involved in building energy simulations to evaluate energy-efficiency measures and for policy-makers to assess the influence of different building energy policies.

Production and on-line comprehension of definite articles and clitic pronouns by Greek sequential bilingual children and monolingual children with specific language impairment

The present study compared production and on-line comprehension of definite articles and third person direct object clitic pronouns in Greek-speaking typically developing, sequential bilingual (L2-TD) children and monolingual children with specific language impairment (L1-SLI). Twenty Turkish Greek L2-TD children, 16 Greek L1-SLI children, and 31 L1-TD Greek children participated in a production task examining definite articles and clitic pronouns and, in an on-line comprehension task, involving grammatical sentences with definite articles and clitics and sentences with grammatical violations induced by omitted articles and clitics. The results showed that the L2-TD children were sensitive to the grammatical violations despite low production. In contrast, the children with SLI were not sensitive to clitic omission in the on-line task, despite high production. These results support a dissociation between production and on-line comprehension in L2 children and for impaired grammatical representations and lack of automaticity in children with SLI. They also suggest that on-line comprehension tasks may complement production tasks by differentiating between the language profiles of L2-TD children and children with SLI.

How do I know if my forecasts are better? Using benchmarks in Hydrological ensemble prediction

The skill of a forecast can be assessed by comparing the relative proximity of both the forecast and a benchmark to the observations. Example benchmarks include climatology or a naïve forecast. Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) are currently transforming the hydrological forecasting environment but in this new field there is little information to guide researchers and operational forecasters on how benchmarks can be best used to evaluate their probabilistic forecasts. In this study, it is identified that the forecast skill calculated can vary depending on the benchmark selected and that the selection of a benchmark for determining forecasting system skill is sensitive to a number of hydrological and system factors. A benchmark intercomparison experiment is then undertaken using the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), a reference forecasting system and a suite of 23 different methods to derive benchmarks. The benchmarks are assessed within the operational set-up of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to determine those that are ‘toughest to beat’ and so give the most robust discrimination of forecast skill, particularly for the spatial average fields that EFAS relies upon. Evaluating against an observed discharge proxy the benchmark that has most utility for EFAS and avoids the most naïve skill across different hydrological situations is found to be meteorological persistency. This benchmark uses the latest meteorological observations of precipitation and temperature to drive the hydrological model. Hydrological long term average benchmarks, which are currently used in EFAS, are very easily beaten by the forecasting system and the use of these produces much naïve skill. When decomposed into seasons, the advanced meteorological benchmarks, which make use of meteorological observations from the past 20 years at the same calendar date, have the most skill discrimination. They are also good at discriminating skill in low flows and for all catchment sizes. Simpler meteorological benchmarks are particularly useful for high flows. Recommendations for EFAS are to move to routine use of meteorological persistency, an advanced meteorological benchmark and a simple meteorological benchmark in order to provide a robust evaluation of forecast skill. This work provides the first comprehensive evidence on how benchmarks can be used in evaluation of skill in probabilistic hydrological forecasts and which benchmarks are most useful for skill discrimination and avoidance of naïve skill in a large scale HEPS. It is recommended that all HEPS use the evidence and methodology provided here to evaluate which benchmarks to employ; so forecasters can have trust in their skill evaluation and will have confidence that their forecasts are indeed better.

Sequential hydrocarbon biodegradation of a soil from arid coastal Australia oil-treated under laboratory controlled conditions

A general consistency in the sequential order of petroleum hydrocarbon reduction in previous biodegradation studies has led to the proposal of several molecularly based biodegradation scales. Few studies have investigated the biodegradation susceptibility of petroleum hydrocarbon products in soil media, however, and metabolic preferences can change with habitat type. A laboratory based study comprising gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC–MS) analysis of extracts of oil-treated soil samples incubated for up to 161 days was conducted to investigate the biodegradation of crude oil exposed to sandy soils of Barrow Island, home to both a Class ‘‘A” nature reserve and Australia’s largest on-shore oil field. Biodegradation trends of the hydrocarbon-treated soils were largely consistent with previous reports but some unusual behaviour was recognised both between and within hydrocarbon classes. For example, the n-alkanes persisted at trace levels from day 86 to 161 following the removal of typically more stable dimethyl naphthalenes and methyl phenanthrenes. The relative susceptibility to biodegradation of different di- tri- and tetramethylnaphthalene isomers also showed several features distinct from previous reports. The unique biodegradation behaviour of Barrow Is. soil likely reflects difference in microbial functioning with physiochemical variation in the environment. Correlation of molecular parameters, reduction rates of selected alkyl naphthalene isomers and CO2 respiration values with a delayed (61 d) oil-treated soil identified a slowing of biodegradation with microcosm incubation; a reduced function or population of incubated soil flora might also influence the biodegradation patterns observed.

Production and on-line comprehension of definiteness in English and Dutch by monolingual and sequential bilingual children

The present article examines production and on-line processing of definite articles in Turkish-speaking sequential bilingual children acquiring English and Dutch as second languages (L2) in the UK and in the Netherlands, respectively. Thirty-nine 6–8-year-old L2 children and 48 monolingual (L1) age-matched children participated in two separate studies examining the production of definite articles in English and Dutch in conditions manipulating semantic context, that is, the anaphoric and the bridging contexts. Sensitivity to article omission was examined in the same groups of children using an on-line processing task involving article use in the same semantic contexts as in the production task. The results indicate that both L2 children and L1 controls are less accurate when definiteness is established by keeping track of the discourse referents (anaphoric) than when it is established via world knowledge (bridging). Moreover, despite variable production, all groups of children were sensitive to the omission of definite articles in the on-line comprehension task. This suggests that the errors of omission are not due to the lack of abstract syntactic representations, but could result from processes implicated in the spell-out of definite articles. The findings are in line with the idea that variable production in child L2 learners does not necessarily indicate lack of abstract representations (Haznedar and Schwartz, 1997).

An investigation of the shortcomings of the CONSORT 2010 statement for the reporting of group sequential randomised controlled trials: a methodological systematic review

Background It can be argued that adaptive designs are underused in clinical research. We have explored concerns related to inadequate reporting of such trials, which may influence their uptake. Through a careful examination of the literature, we evaluated the standards of reporting of group sequential (GS) randomised controlled trials, one form of a confirmatory adaptive design. Methods We undertook a systematic review, by searching Ovid MEDLINE from the 1st January 2001 to 23rd September 2014, supplemented with trials from an audit study. We included parallel group, confirmatory, GS trials that were prospectively designed using a Frequentist approach. Eligible trials were examined for compliance in their reporting against the CONSORT 2010 checklist. In addition, as part of our evaluation, we developed a supplementary checklist to explicitly capture group sequential specific reporting aspects, and investigated how these are currently being reported. Results Of the 284 screened trials, 68(24%) were eligible. Most trials were published in “high impact” peer-reviewed journals. Examination of trials established that 46(68%) were stopped early, predominantly either for futility or efficacy. Suboptimal reporting compliance was found in general items relating to: access to full trials protocols; methods to generate randomisation list(s); details of randomisation concealment, and its implementation. Benchmarking against the supplementary checklist, GS aspects were largely inadequately reported. Only 3(7%) trials which stopped early reported use of statistical bias correction. Moreover, 52(76%) trials failed to disclose methods used to minimise the risk of operational bias, due to the knowledge or leakage of interim results. Occurrence of changes to trial methods and outcomes could not be determined in most trials, due to inaccessible protocols and amendments. Discussion and Conclusions There are issues with the reporting of GS trials, particularly those specific to the conduct of interim analyses. Suboptimal reporting of bias correction methods could potentially imply most GS trials stopping early are giving biased results of treatment effects. As a result, research consumers may question credibility of findings to change practice when trials are stopped early. These issues could be alleviated through a CONSORT extension. Assurance of scientific rigour through transparent adequate reporting is paramount to the credibility of findings from adaptive trials. Our systematic literature search was restricted to one database due to resource constraints.

Interim analyses and sequential designs in phase III studies

Recruitment of patients to a clinical trial usually occurs over a period of time, resulting in the steady accumulation of data throughout the trial's duration. Yet, according to traditional statistical methods, the sample size of the trial should be determined in advance, and data collected on all subjects before analysis proceeds. For ethical and economic reasons, the technique of sequential testing has been developed to enable the examination of data at a series of interim analyses. The aim is to stop recruitment to the study as soon as there is sufficient evidence to reach a firm conclusion. In this paper we present the advantages and disadvantages of conducting interim analyses in phase III clinical trials, together with the key steps to enable the successful implementation of sequential methods in this setting. Examples are given of completed trials, which have been carried out sequentially, and references to relevant literature and software are provided.