A historical approach to the new secular stagnation hypothesis

In this paper, we analyze the behavior of real interest rates over the long-run using historical data for nine developed economies, to assess the extent to which the recent decline observed in most advanced countries is at odds with the past data, as suggested by the Secular Stagnation hypothesis. By using data from 1703 and performing stationarity and structural breaks tests, we find that the recent decline in interest rates is not explained by a structural break in the time series. Our results also show that considering long-run data leads to different conclusions than using short-run data.

A pictorial field guide for the rapid identification of sandflies (DIPTERA: PSYCHODIDAE), commonly encountered in Pará state, Brazil.

A pictorial field guide to the 30 species of sandfly most commonly encountered in Pará State is presented, based on the easily recognised external characters of the length of the 5th palpal segment, thoracic infuscation, abdominal colour and head and body size. In most cases this allows identification to the species. In others, especially with females, it gives an indication of the species, which may then be confirmed with data from more detailed taxanomix studies. This type of field guide helps in teaching, rapid sorting of flies prior to dissection and in acquainting visitors with the variety of species present in a given area.A rapid technique for the taxonomic sorting of unmounted, freshly killed female sandflies is required, prior to the dissection of large numbers of a particular species. Such a method is useful in areas where numerous species occur in studies on natural flagellate infections, age determination and for ecological studies. With the above points in mind a pictorial field guide has been designed that enables the identification of unmounted, unmacerated specimens of the 30 more commonly encountered species of phleboto-mine sandflies (***) in Pará State, North Brazil. It is based on the easily recognised external characters of the length of the 5th palpal segment, thoracic infuscation, ad-dominal colour and proboscis and body size.Taxonomy of male phlebotomine sandflies is based on the structure of the genitalia and, as most of this is external, a wholly external character key is readily made. Female taxonomy, however, is based on the internal character of the cibarium, pharynx and sperma thecae. In order to produce an external character key we therefore return to an unso phisticated "phlebotometry" (see Martins et al., 1978 p. 3 for review), using relative lengths of the proboscis, palpal segments and body, along with the degree of infuscation. Ihis idea is not new; indeed many sandfly specialists presently use external characters to separate certain species (H. Fraiha, R. P. Lane, P. D. Ready, D. G. Young and R. D. Ward personal communications 1983 & 1984).A key used to separate five anthropophillic sandflies by Biagi (1966), in Mexico, was based mainly on palpal segment length and infuscation. Floch and Abonnenc (1952) stressed the use of relative lengths of palpal segments in their keys to the sandflies of French Guiana, and four members of the shannoni group have been similarly separated according to the degree of infuscation by Morales et al. (1982). The use of thoracic infuscation as a reliable character seems to be gaining favour, having been used by young & Fairchild (1974) and Ready & Fraiha (1981). Indeed Chariotis 1974) showed the usefulness of thoracic infuscation to sepenate 7 anthropophillic species, during studies onvesicular stomatitis in Panama. Identification using external characters is essential for work on viral isolations from sandflies, where bulk samples of whole sandflies are used.Perhaps the major advantage of a simple visual guide is for teaching purposes. Technical staff in this lnstitute are able to identify most of the species they encounter without having to use the standard, more unwieldly (and in many cases unavailable) internal character keys, and the guides presented below have allowed rapid species sorting prior to the dissection of sandflies in our leismaniasis study areas (Ryan et at. ,1985).

Proving a market for a startup befor scaling using the hypothesis-driven entrepreneurship process

The year is 2015 and the startup and tech business ecosphere has never seen more activity. In New York City alone, the tech startup industry is on track to amass $8 billion dollars in total funding – the highest in 7 years (CB Insights, 2015). According to the Kauffman Index of Entrepreneurship (2015), this figure represents just 20% of the total funding in the United States. Thanks to platforms that link entrepreneurs with investors, there are simply more funding opportunities than ever, and funding can be initiated in a variety of ways (angel investors, venture capital firms, crowdfunding). And yet, in spite of all this, according to Forbes Magazine (2015), nine of ten startups will fail. Because of the unpredictable nature of the modern tech industry, it is difficult to pinpoint exactly why 90% of startups fail – but the general consensus amongst top tech executives is that “startups make products that no one wants” (Fortune, 2014). In 2011, author Eric Ries wrote a book called The Lean Startup in attempts to solve this all-too-familiar problem. It was in this book where he developed the framework for The Hypothesis-Driven Entrepreneurship Process, an iterative process that aims at proving a market before actually launching a product. Ries discusses concepts such as the Minimum Variable Product, the smallest set of activities necessary to disprove a hypothesis (or business model characteristic). Ries encourages acting briefly and often: if you are to fail, then fail fast. In today’s fast-moving economy, an entrepreneur cannot afford to waste his own time, nor his customer’s time. The purpose of this thesis is to conduct an in-depth of analysis of Hypothesis-Driven Entrepreneurship Process, in order to test market viability of a reallife startup idea, ShowMeAround. This analysis will follow the scientific Lean Startup approach; for the purpose of developing a functional business model and business plan. The objective is to conclude with an investment-ready startup idea, backed by rigorous entrepreneurial study.

Evidence for a stress hypothesis: hemiparasitism effect on the colonization of Alchornea castaneaefolia A. Juss.uphorbiaceae) by Galling Insects

Stressed plants are generally more attacked by galling insects. In this study we investigated the relationship between population abundance and species richness of galling insects on the tree Alchornea castaneaefolia A. JUSS. (Euphorbiaceae), submited to stress induced by the hemiparasite Psittacanthus sp. (Loranthaceae) in the Amazon, Brazil. Branches of A. castaneaefolia attacked by the hemiparasite were more heavily infested by galling insects than non-attacked branches. The field observations partially corroborate the hypothesis that there would be an optimal level of host-plant stress for galling insect establishment.

Ergonomic evaluation of office workplaces with Rapid Office Strain Assessment (ROSA)

The regular use of the computer in the office contributed to the appearance of many risk factors related with work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WRMSD) such as maintaining static sitting postures for long time and awkward postures of the head, neck and upper limbs, leading to increased muscle activity in the cervical spine and shoulders. The objective of this study was to evaluate the presence of risk factors for WRMSD in an office using the Rapid Assessment Office Strain method (ROSA). Based on the results of this ergonomic evaluation, an occupational gym program was designed and implemented. Thirty-eight workplaces were evaluated using the observation of the tasks and pictures records in order to characterize those tasks in more detail. The ROSA tool was applied by an observer, who selected the appropriate score based on the worker's posture as well as the time spent in each posture. Scores were recorded for the sections of the method, specifically Chair, Monitor and Mouse and Keyboard and Telephone. The scores were recorded in a sheet developed for the method. The mean ROSA final score was 3.61 ± 0.64, for Chair section was 3.45 ± 0.55, to Monitor and Telephone section was 3.11 ± 0.61, and to Mouse and Keyboard section was 2.11 ± 0.31. The results led to understand that the analyzed tasks represent situations of risk of discomfort and, according to the methods guidelines, further research and modifications of the workplace may be necessary. It should be emphasized that these scores may not be related to the poor available equipment but with the need to optimize their use by the workers. It was noticed also that the interaction of workers with the tasks and the adopted sitting posture at the computer throughout the day have effects at a muscular level, essentially for the cervical area and shoulders. ROSA tool is an useful and easy method to assess several risk factors associated with WRMSD, also allowing the design of specific occupational gym programs.

Ergosterol as a rapid measurement of Ganoderma rot of oil palm

Palm oil (PO) is a very important commodity for many countries and especially Indonesia and Malaysia who are the predominant producers. PO is used in ca. 30% of supermarket foods, cosmetics, cooking and as biodiesel. The growth of oil palms in plantations is controversial as the production methods contribute to climate change and cause environmental damage [1]. The plant is subjected to a devastating disease in these two countries caused by the white rot fungus Ganoderma. There are no satisfactory methods to diagnose the disease in the plant as they are too slow and/or inaccurate. The lipid compound ergosterol is unique to fungi and is used to measure growth especially in solid substrates. We report here on the use of ergosterol to measure the growth of Ganoderma in oil palms using HPLC and TLC methods [2]. The method is rapid and correlates well with other methods and is capable of being used on-site, hence improving the speed of analysis and allowing remedial action. Climate change will affect the health of OP [1] and rapid detection methods will be increasingly required to control the disease. [1] Paterson, RRM, Kumar, L, Taylor, S, Lima N. Future climate effects on suitability for growth of oil palms in Malaysia and Indonesia. Scientific Reports, 5, 2015, 14457. [2] Muniroh, MS, Sariah M, Zainal Abidin, MA, Lima, N, Paterson, RRM. Rapid detection of Ganoderma-infected oil palms by microwave ergosterol extraction with HPLC and TLC. Journal of Microbiological Methods, 100, 2014, 143–147.

Does nitrogen availability have greater control over the formation of tropical heath forests than water stress?A hypothesis based on nitrogen isotope ratios

Global scale analyses of soil and foliage δ15N have found positive relationships between δ15N and ecosystem N loss (suggesting an open N cycle) and a negative relationship between δ15N and water availability. We show here that soils and leaves from tropical heath forests are depleted in 15N relative to 'typical' forests suggesting that they have a tight N cycle and are therefore limited by N rather than by, often suggested, water availability.

An object-oriented model for rapid prototyping of data path/control systems - a case study

Publicado em "Information control in manufacturing 1998 : (INCOM'98) : advances in industrial engineering : a proceedings volume from the 9th IFAC Symposium, Nancy-Metz, France, 24-26 June 1998. Vol. 2"

Pre-clinical trials for Machado-Joseph Disease: Hypothesis-based and hypothesis-free therapeutic approaches

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências da Saúde

Revision of the tribe Phyllotini (Rodentia: Sigmodontinae), with a phylogenetic hypothesis for the Sigmodontinae / Scott J. Steppan.

n.s. no.80(1995)

Investigações sobre doenças de Psittacideos

The present paper colligates the notions acquired in previous investigations, already published, and new observations upon diseases of the psittacidae, liable to be confused with psittacosis of parrots. The author calls attention to the indifference with regard to this question shown by investigators, even by those who dealt with the study of this disease on the occasion of the latest outbreak of psittacosis, in flagrant contrast with the researches upon the alterations induced by pathogenic agents of other diseases transmissible to man, when these agents pass through animals or when the latter are depositaries of the virus. This remark considerably enhances the importance of the presence paper from a hygienic and epidemiologic point of view, representing moreover a contribution to general knowledge and to veterinary medicine. The researches carried out since the appearance of the latest outbreak of psittacosis,-which occurred simultaneously with an epizooty in parrots lodged in aviary of the park of Agua Branca (Directory of Animal Industry of the State São Paulo)-led to the verification of the frequent existence in these animals of various diseases liable to be confused with psittacosis. These diseases are due to two kinds of pathogenic agents: virus and bacteria. In the first group there are to be found the diseases occasioned by the virus of human psittacosis, discovered by Western, Bedson and Simpson, and the disease me with in parrots coming from traders in S. Paulo. The infections by bacteria of the genus Salmonella and by those of other genera belong to the second group. As differential characters of the two infections due to virus, delineated on the strength of notions drawn from a detailed experimental study and from the literature on this subject, the following are given: ¹ Samples of our virus were sent, for comparison, to various investigators of psittacosis. Amongst them, Prof. M. Rivers acceded to our request; he found its nature to be different from that of the virus of psittacosis studiedby him. We are very much obliged to him for the attention he paid to this verification. Virus of psittacosis - Infectiousness: man, monkey, rabbit, mouse, hen, canary. Neurotropic affinity. Inclusions: small, protoplasmic. Exsiccation: the virus has good power of preservation. Symptoms: inactivity, drowsiness, frequent diarrhoea, oculo-nasal discharge and cough, coma. Duration: 4 to 5 days. Bodily lesions: congestion of intestines, splenomegaly. Virus of S. Paulo - Infects only psittacidae, particularly those of the genus Amazona. No localization in the nervous system. Large, nuclear. Is rapidly destroyed. Inactivity, inappetency, adynamia (drooping of the wings, indifference, leaning its beak against the bars of the cage in order not to fall down); profuse diarrhoea, of whitish stools, at times enterorrhagia; prolonged coma. 2 to 8 days. Foci of yellowish necrosis in liver, spleen and lung. At times, congestion of intestines. Characteristic features common to the two viruses.-They act in great dilutions, filter through tight candles though being partly retained, are preserved under glycerine or Bedson's solution, are stable at 55°C. heat and are destroyed by physical and chemical agents. Both virus diseases are very seldom met with in psittacidae: only once, amongst numberless sick parrots, the author met with a disease of the virus differring from that of psittacosis. This disease, greatly transmissible to man, ought to be more frequent, if it were common in parrots. On the contrary, bacteria cause diseases in these animals with great frequency, presenting variable characters, from a severe epizootic form, rapidly mortal, to ambulatory or silent forms, for the most part developing towards a cure or assuming a chronic character. Amongst the bacteria which cause the infection of this group the salmonellae predominate and amongst them the bacterium discovered by Nocard, as well as a species which in the course of this study is characterized under the name of Salmonella nocardi. The author believes that in the epizooty from which Nocard isolated his bacterium there was association of the virus-disease inducing the epizooty of that epoch in Paris with the bacterial disease, as must have happened in Argentina, where the disease was transmitted to man, and Santillan, according to Barros, isolated from the sick parrots bacteria of the genus Salmonella. The diseases of the two groups, that due to virus and that due to bacteria, are differentiated: Virus-diseases - Evolution: rapid, nearly always followed by death. Symptoms: sadness, profuse diarrhoea, of whitish stools, at times enterorrhagia, complete inappetency, adynamia, indifference, prolonged coma. Clinical forms: acute and subacute. Lesions: Foci of necrosis in liver and spleen without cellular reaction around the focus, yellow liver, multiple serositis. Presence of protoplasmic or nuclear granulations. Bacteriology: Complete lack or inconstant presence of bacteria in the organs and blood. Infectiousness of the organs and blood after filtration: positive. Bacterial diseases - Varies from one week to a month or more, not always fatal. Sadness, partial inappetency, tremblings, intensive thirst, mucous or mucosanguineous diarrhoea, lack of adynamia (reacts to stimulations and moves well at any time of the disease, though showing little disposition to locomotion), soiling of feathers. Frustrate, acute, subacute and chronic. Hepatic and intestinal cogestion, foci of necrosis in liver, spleen and lung with cellular reaction around the focus. Lack of granulations. Constant presence of bacteria in the organs and blood. Negative. The analysis of the litterature shows that the characteristic features of the diseases in parrots referred to parrot psittacosis, more frequently approach the bacterial diseases here described of these animals, a hypothesis which is reinforced by the observation of the greater frequency of infections...

ParallelKnoppix - Rapid deployment of a linux cluster for MPI parallel processing using non-dedicated computers

This note describes ParallelKnoppix, a bootable CD that allows creation of a Linux cluster in very little time. An experienced user can create a cluster ready to execute MPI programs in less than 10 minutes. The computers used may be heterogeneous machines, of the IA-32 architecture. When the cluster is shut down, all machines except one are in their original state, and the last can be returned to its original state by deleting a directory. The system thus provides a means of using non-dedicated computers to create a cluster. An example session is documented.