894 resultados para probability of error


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The adaptive process in motor learning was examined in terms of effects of varying amounts of constant practice performed before random practice. Participants pressed five response keys sequentially, the last one coincident with the lighting of a final visual stimulus provided by a complex coincident timing apparatus. Different visual stimulus speeds were used during the random practice. 33 children (M age=11.6 yr.) were randomly assigned to one of three experimental groups: constant-random, constant-random 33%, and constant-random 66%. The constant-random group practiced constantly until they reached a criterion of performance stabilization three consecutive trials within 50 msec. of error. The other two groups had additional constant practice of 33 and 66%, respectively, of the number of trials needed to achieve the stabilization criterion. All three groups performed 36 trials under random practice; in the adaptation phase, they practiced at a different visual stimulus speed adopted in the stabilization phase. Global performance measures were absolute, constant, and variable errors, and movement pattern was analyzed by relative timing and overall movement time. There was no group difference in relation to global performance measures and overall movement time. However, differences between the groups were observed on movement pattern, since constant-random 66% group changed its relative timing performance in the adaptation phase.

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Purpose Adverse drug events (ADEs) are harmful and occur with alarming frequency in critically ill patients. Complex pharmacotherapy with multiple medications increases the probability of a drug interaction (DI) and ADEs in patients in intensive care units (ICUs). The objective of the study is to determine the frequency of ADEs among patients in the ICU of a university hospital and the drugs implicated. Also, factors associated with ADEs are investigated. Methods This cross-sectional study investigated 299 medical records of patients hospitalized for 5 or more days in an ICU. ADEs were identified through intensive monitoring adopted in hospital pharmacovigilance and also ADE triggers. Adverse drug reactions (ADR) causality was classified using the Naranjo algorithm. Data were analyzed through descriptive analysis, and through univariate and multiple logistic regression. Results The most frequent ADEs were ADRs type A, of possible causality and moderate severity. The most frequent ADR was drug-induced acute kidney injury. Patients with ADEs related to DIs corresponded to 7% of the sample. The multiple logistic regression showed that length of hospitalization (OR = 1.06) and administration of cardiovascular drugs (OR = 2.2) were associated with the occurrence of ADEs. Conclusion Adverse drug reactions of clinical significance were the most frequent ADEs in the ICU studied, which reduces patient safety. The number of ADEs related to drug interactions was small, suggesting that clinical manifestations of drug interactions that harm patients are not frequent in ICUs.

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Carbonation is one of the main concerns for concrete service life in tropical countries. The mechanism and materials that produce it have been widely studied as well as natural and accelerated methods to report and analyze it. In spite of reported investigations, there is a need for information that could allow an adequate interpretation of the results of the standardization process. This lack of information can produce variations not only in the interpretation but also in the predictions of service life. The purpose of this paper is to analyze and discuss variables that could be sources of error, especially when performing accelerated tests. As a result, a methodologies to minimize variations when interpreting and comparing results is proposed, such as specimen geometry and preconditioning, spacing, relative humidity, and CO(2) concentration.

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The objective of this work was to evaluate the economic feasibility of cowpea irrigation in Piaui State Brazil. Water balances were carried out on a daily basis using the Thornthwaite and Mather (1955) method, for 165 sites, considering twelve sowings dates and available water capacity in the soil of 20, 40 and 60 mm. The net revenues were estimated with a probability of occurrence of 75%, later being spatialized to Piaui State. Cowpea irrigation was shown to economically viable for all sowing dates, irrespective of the available water capacity. Net revenues varied among several regions of the State, in function of the sowing date and available water capacity in the soil. Considering a planning strategy for Piaui State, sowing on February, I was shown to be most favorable, because it enabled higher net revenue values, covering larger areas of the State.

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By applying a directed evolution methodology specific enzymatic characteristics can be enhanced, but to select mutants of interest from a large mutant bank, this approach requires high throughput screening and facile selection. To facilitate such primary screening of enhanced clones, an expression system was tested that uses a green fluorescent protein (GFP) tag from Aequorea victoria linked to the enzyme of interest. As GFP`s fluorescence is readily measured, and as there is a 1:1 molar correlation between the target protein and GFP, the concept proposed was to determine whether GFP could facilitate primary screening of error-prone PCR (EPP) clones. For this purpose a thermostable beta-glucosidase (BglA) from Fervidobacterium sp. was used as a model enzyme. A vector expressing the chimeric protein BglA-GFP-6XHis was constructed and the fusion protein purified and characterized. When compared to the native proteins, the components of the fusion displayed modified characteristics, such as enhanced GFP thermostability and a higher BglA optimum temperature. Clones carrying mutant BglA proteins obtained by EPP, were screened based on the BglA/GFP activity ratio. Purified tagged enzymes from selected clones resulted in modified substrate specificity.

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The purpose of the present study was to examine the benefits of providing audible speech to listeners with sensorineural hearing loss when the speech is presented in a background noise. Previous studies have shown that when listeners have a severe hearing loss in the higher frequencies, providing audible speech (in a quiet background) to these higher frequencies usually results in no improvement in speech recognition. In the present experiments, speech was presented in a background of multitalker babble to listeners with various severities of hearing loss. The signal was low-pass filtered at numerous cutoff frequencies and speech recognition was measured as additional high-frequency speech information was provided to the hearing-impaired listeners. It was found in all cases, regardless of hearing loss or frequency range, that providing audible speech resulted in an increase in recognition score. The change in recognition as the cutoff frequency was increased, along with the amount of audible speech information in each condition (articulation index), was used to calculate the "efficiency" of providing audible speech. Efficiencies were positive for all degrees of hearing loss. However, the gains in recognition were small, and the maximum score obtained by an listener was low, due to the noise background. An analysis of error patterns showed that due to the limited speech audibility in a noise background, even severely impaired listeners used additional speech audibility in the high frequencies to improve their perception of the "easier" features of speech including voicing

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Reviews the ecological status of the mahogany glider and describes its distribution, habitat and abundance, life history and threats to it. Three serial surveys of Brisbane residents provide data on the knowledge of respondents about the mahogany glider. The results provide information about the attitudes of respondents to the mahogany glider, to its conservation and relevant public policies and about variations in these factors as the knowledge of participants of the mahogany glider alters. Similarly data is provided and analysed about the willingness to pay of respondents to conserve the mahogany glider. Population viability analysis is applied to estimate the required habitat area for a minimum viable population of the mahogany glider to ensure at least a 95% probability of its survival for 100 years. Places are identified in Queensland where the requisite minimum area of critical habitat can be conserved. Using the survey results as a basis, the likely willingness of groups of Australians to pay for the conservation of the mahogany glider is estimated and consequently their willingness to pay for the minimum required area of its habitat. Methods for estimating the cost of protecting this habitat are outlined. Australia-wide benefits seem to exceed the costs. Establishing a national park containing the minimum viable population of the mahogany glider is an appealing management option. This would also be beneficial in conserving other endangered wildlife species. Therefore, additional economic benefits to those estimated on account of the mahogany glider itself can be obtained.

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The avian hippocampus plays a pivotal role in memory required for spatial navigation and food storing. Here we have examined synaptic transmission and plasticity within the hippocampal formation of the domestic chicken using an in vitro slice preparation. With the use of sharp microelectrodes we have shown that excitatory synaptic inputs in this structure are glutamatergic and activate both NMDA-and AMPA-type receptors on the postsynaptic membrane. In response to tetanic stimulation, the EPSP displayed a robust long-term potentiation (LTP) lasting >1 hr. This LTP was unaffected by blockade of NMDA receptors or chelation of postsynaptic calcium. Application of forskolin increased the EPSP and reduced paired-pulse facilitation: (PPF), indicating an increase in release probability. In contrast, LTP was not associated with a change in the PPF ratio. Induction of LTP did not occlude the effects of forskolin. Thus, in contrast to NMDA receptor-independent LTP in the mammalian brain, LTP in the chicken hippocampus is not attributable to a change in the probability of transmitter release and does not require activation of adenylyl cyclase, These findings indicate that a novel form of synaptic plasticity might underlie learning in the avian hippocampus.

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Potential errors in the application of mixture theory to the analysis of multiple-frequency bioelectrical impedance data for the determination of body fluid volumes are assessed. Potential sources of error include: conductive length; tissue fluid resistivity; body density; weight and technical errors of measurement. Inclusion of inaccurate estimates of body density and weight introduce errors of typically < +/-3% but incorrect assumptions regarding conductive length or fluid resistivities may each incur errors of up to 20%.

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Algorithms for explicit integration of structural dynamics problems with multiple time steps (subcycling) are investigated. Only one such algorithm, due to Smolinski and Sleith has proved to be stable in a classical sense. A simplified version of this algorithm that retains its stability is presented. However, as with the original version, it can be shown to sacrifice accuracy to achieve stability. Another algorithm in use is shown to be only statistically stable, in that a probability of stability can be assigned if appropriate time step limits are observed. This probability improves rapidly with the number of degrees of freedom in a finite element model. The stability problems are shown to be a property of the central difference method itself, which is modified to give the subcycling algorithm. A related problem is shown to arise when a constraint equation in time is introduced into a time-continuous space-time finite element model. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science S.A.

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A mathematical model was developed to estimate HIV incidence in NSW prisons. Data included: duration of imprisonment; number of inmates using each needle; lower and higher number of shared injections per IDU per week; proportion of IDUs using bleach; efficacy of bleach; HIV prevalence and probability of infection. HIV prevalence in IDUs in prison was estimated to have risen from 0.8 to 5.7% (12.2%) over 180 weeks when using lower (and higher) values for frequency of shared injections. The estimated minimum (and maximum) number of IDU inmates infected with HIV in NSW prisons was 38 (and 152) in 1993 according to the model. These figures require confirmation by seroincidence studies. (C) 1998 Published by Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Objective: To improve the success of culturing olfactory neurons from human nasal mucosa by investigating the intranasal distribution of the olfactory epithelium and devising new techniques for growing human olfactory epithelium in vitro. Design: Ninety-seven biopsy specimens were obtained from 33 individuals, aged 21 to 74 years, collected from 6 regions of the nasal cavity. Each biopsy specimen was bisected, and 1 piece was processed for immunohistochemistry or electron microscopy while the other piece was dissected further for explant culture. Four culture techniques were performed, including whole explants and explanted biopsy slices. Five days after plating, neuronal differentiation was induced by means of a medium that contained basic fibroblast growth factor. After another 5 days, cultures were processed for immunocytochemical analysis. Results: The probability of finding olfactory epithelium in a biopsy specimen ranged from 30% to 76%, depending on its location. The dorsoposterior regions of the nasal septum and the superior turbinate provided the highest probability, but, surprisingly, olfactory epithelium was also found anteriorly and ventrally on both septum and turbinates. A new method of culturing the olfactory epithelium was devised. This slice culture technique improved the success rate for generating olfactory neurons from 10% to 90%. Conclusions: This study explains and overcomes most of the variability in the success in observing neurogenesis in cultures of adult human olfactory epithelium. The techniques presented here make the human olfactory epithelium a useful model for clinical research into certain olfactory dysfunctions and a model for the causes of neurodevelopmental and neurodegenerative diseases.

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The problem of extracting pore size distributions from characterization data is solved here with particular reference to adsorption. The technique developed is based on a finite element collocation discretization of the adsorption integral, with fitting of the isotherm data by least squares using regularization. A rapid and simple technique for ensuring non-negativity of the solutions is also developed which modifies the original solution having some negativity. The technique yields stable and converged solutions, and is implemented in a package RIDFEC. The package is demonstrated to be robust, yielding results which are less sensitive to experimental error than conventional methods, with fitting errors matching the known data error. It is shown that the choice of relative or absolute error norm in the least-squares analysis is best based on the kind of error in the data. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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This is the first paper in a study on the influence of the environment on the crack tip strain field for AISI 4340. A stressing stage for the environmental scanning electron microscope (ESEM) was constructed which was capable of applying loads up to 60 kN to fracture-mechanics samples. The measurement of the crack tip strain field required preparation (by electron lithography or chemical etching) of a system of reference points spaced at similar to 5 mu m intervals on the sample surface, loading the sample inside an electron microscope, image processing procedures to measure the displacement at each reference point and calculation of the strain field. Two algorithms to calculate strain were evaluated. Possible sources of errors were calculation errors due to the algorithm, errors inherent in the image processing procedure and errors due to the limited precision of the displacement measurements. Estimation of the contribution of each source of error was performed. The technique allows measurement of the crack tip strain field over an area of 50 x 40 mu m with a strain precision better than +/- 0.02 at distances larger than 5 mu m from the crack tip. (C) 1999 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

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Objective: To assess how general practitioners might interpret and apply the results of a systematic review relevant to general practice. Design: Cross-sectional postal survey of general practitioners in August 1997. Participants: 51 general practitioners in the Southern Division of General Practice in Adelaide and 11 professors or heads of departments of general practice. Main outcome measures:Extent to which comments on the implications for practice and implications for research coincided with the evidence presented in a systematic review of antibiotics for the treatment of acute otitis media in children; and reported probability that respondents would prescribe antibiotics in three brief case scenarios. Results: There was considerable variation in the comments made by general practitioners on the implications of the review for clinical practice. After reading the review, respondents with training in critical appraisal were more likely to state that children with acute otitis media would usually recover spontaneously and reported a lower probability of prescribing antibiotics in two of the three case scenarios. Conclusions: Providing systematic reviews is not sufficient for the results of such evidence to be translated:into clinical practice. There is an association between critical appraisal skills and the application of evidence-based practice.