908 resultados para probability and reinforcement proportion
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A sample scanning confocal optical microscope (SCOM) was designed and constructed in order to perform local measurements of fluorescence, light scattering and Raman scattering. This instrument allows to measure time resolved fluorescence, Raman scattering and light scattering from the same diffraction limited spot. Fluorescence from single molecules and light scattering from metallic nanoparticles can be studied. First, the electric field distribution in the focus of the SCOM was modelled. This enables the design of illumination modes for different purposes, such as the determination of the three-dimensional orientation of single chromophores. Second, a method for the calculation of the de-excitation rates of a chromophore was presented. This permits to compare different detection schemes and experimental geometries in order to optimize the collection of fluorescence photons. Both methods were combined to calculate the SCOM fluorescence signal of a chromophore in a general layered system. The fluorescence excitation and emission of single molecules through a thin gold film was investigated experimentally and modelled. It was demonstrated that, due to the mediation of surface plasmons, single molecule fluorescence near a thin gold film can be excited and detected with an epi-illumination scheme through the film. Single molecule fluorescence as close as 15nm to the gold film was studied in this manner. The fluorescence dynamics (fluorescence blinking and excited state lifetime) of single molecules was studied in the presence and in the absence of a nearby gold film in order to investigate the influence of the metal on the electronic transition rates. The trace-histogram and the autocorrelation methods for the analysis of single molecule fluorescence blinking were presented and compared via the analysis of Monte-Carlo simulated data. The nearby gold influences the total decay rate in agreement to theory. The gold presence produced no influence on the ISC rate from the excited state to the triplet but increased by a factor of 2 the transition rate from the triplet to the singlet ground state. The photoluminescence blinking of Zn0.42Cd0.58Se QDs on glass and ITO substrates was investigated experimentally as a function of the excitation power (P) and modelled via Monte-Carlo simulations. At low P, it was observed that the probability of a certain on- or off-time follows a negative power-law with exponent near to 1.6. As P increased, the on-time fraction reduced on both substrates whereas the off-times did not change. A weak residual memory effect between consecutive on-times and consecutive off-times was observed but not between an on-time and the adjacent off-time. All of this suggests the presence of two independent mechanisms governing the lifetimes of the on- and off-states. The simulated data showed Poisson-distributed off- and on-intensities, demonstrating that the observed non-Poissonian on-intensity distribution of the QDs is not a product of the underlying power-law probability and that the blinking of QDs occurs between a non-emitting off-state and a distribution of emitting on-states with different intensities. All the experimentally observed photo-induced effects could be accounted for by introducing a characteristic lifetime tPI of the on-state in the simulations. The QDs on glass presented a tPI proportional to P-1 suggesting the presence of a one-photon process. Light scattering images and spectra of colloidal and C-shaped gold nano-particles were acquired. The minimum size of a metallic scatterer detectable with the SCOM lies around 20 nm.
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The ever increasing demand for new services from users who want high-quality broadband services while on the move, is straining the efficiency of current spectrum allocation paradigms, leading to an overall feeling of spectrum scarcity. In order to circumvent this problem, two possible solutions are being investigated: (i) implementing new technologies capable of accessing the temporarily/locally unused bands, without interfering with the licensed services, like Cognitive Radios; (ii) release some spectrum bands thanks to new services providing higher spectral efficiency, e.g., DVB-T, and allocate them to new wireless systems. These two approaches are promising, but also pose novel coexistence and interference management challenges to deal with. In particular, the deployment of devices such as Cognitive Radio, characterized by the inherent unplanned, irregular and random locations of the network nodes, require advanced mathematical techniques in order to explicitly model their spatial distribution. In such context, the system performance and optimization are strongly dependent on this spatial configuration. On the other hand, allocating some released spectrum bands to other wireless services poses severe coexistence issues with all the pre-existing services on the same or adjacent spectrum bands. In this thesis, these methodologies for better spectrum usage are investigated. In particular, using Stochastic Geometry theory, a novel mathematical framework is introduced for cognitive networks, providing a closed-form expression for coverage probability and a single-integral form for average downlink rate and Average Symbol Error Probability. Then, focusing on more regulatory aspects, interference challenges between DVB-T and LTE systems are analysed proposing a versatile methodology for their proper coexistence. Moreover, the studies performed inside the CEPT SE43 working group on the amount of spectrum potentially available to Cognitive Radios and an analysis of the Hidden Node problem are provided. Finally, a study on the extension of cognitive technologies to Hybrid Satellite Terrestrial Systems is proposed.
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Spatial prediction of hourly rainfall via radar calibration is addressed. The change of support problem (COSP), arising when the spatial supports of different data sources do not coincide, is faced in a non-Gaussian setting; in fact, hourly rainfall in Emilia-Romagna region, in Italy, is characterized by abundance of zero values and right-skeweness of the distribution of positive amounts. Rain gauge direct measurements on sparsely distributed locations and hourly cumulated radar grids are provided by the ARPA-SIMC Emilia-Romagna. We propose a three-stage Bayesian hierarchical model for radar calibration, exploiting rain gauges as reference measure. Rain probability and amounts are modeled via linear relationships with radar in the log scale; spatial correlated Gaussian effects capture the residual information. We employ a probit link for rainfall probability and Gamma distribution for rainfall positive amounts; the two steps are joined via a two-part semicontinuous model. Three model specifications differently addressing COSP are presented; in particular, a stochastic weighting of all radar pixels, driven by a latent Gaussian process defined on the grid, is employed. Estimation is performed via MCMC procedures implemented in C, linked to R software. Communication and evaluation of probabilistic, point and interval predictions is investigated. A non-randomized PIT histogram is proposed for correctly assessing calibration and coverage of two-part semicontinuous models. Predictions obtained with the different model specifications are evaluated via graphical tools (Reliability Plot, Sharpness Histogram, PIT Histogram, Brier Score Plot and Quantile Decomposition Plot), proper scoring rules (Brier Score, Continuous Rank Probability Score) and consistent scoring functions (Root Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Error addressing the predictive mean and median, respectively). Calibration is reached and the inclusion of neighbouring information slightly improves predictions. All specifications outperform a benchmark model with incorrelated effects, confirming the relevance of spatial correlation for modeling rainfall probability and accumulation.
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Particle biokinetics is important in hazard identification and characterization of inhaled particles. Such studies intend to convert external to internal exposure or biologically effective dose, and may help to set limits in that way. Here we focus on the biokinetics of inhaled nanometer sized particles in comparison to micrometer sized ones.The presented approach ranges from inhaled particle deposition probability and retention in the respiratory tract to biokinetics and clearance of particles out of the respiratory tract. Particle transport into the blood circulation (translocation), towards secondary target organs and tissues (accumulation), and out of the body (clearance) is considered. The macroscopically assessed amount of particles in the respiratory tract and secondary target organs provides dose estimates for toxicological studies on the level of the whole organism. Complementary, microscopic analyses at the individual particle level provide detailed information about which cells and subcellular components are the target of inhaled particles. These studies contribute to shed light on mechanisms and modes of action eventually leading to adverse health effects by inhaled nanoparticles.We review current methods for macroscopic and microscopic analyses of particle deposition, retention and clearance. Existing macroscopic knowledge on particle biokinetics and microscopic views on particle organ interactions are discussed comparing nanometer and micrometer sized particles. We emphasize the importance for quantitative analyses and the use of particle doses derived from real world exposures.
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Cellular immune responses during acute Hepatitis C virus (HCV) and HIV infection are a known correlate of infection outcome. Viral adaptation to these responses via mutation(s) within CD8+ T-cell epitopes allows these viruses to subvert host immune control. This study examined HCV evolution in 21 HCV genotype 1-infected subjects to characterise the level of viral adaptation during acute and early HCV infection. Of the total mutations observed 25% were within described CD8+ T-cell epitopes or at viral adaptation sites. Most mutations were maintained into the chronic phase of HCV infection (75%). The lack of reversion of adaptations and high proportion of silent substitutions suggests that HCV has structural and functional limitations that constrain evolution. These results were compared to the pattern of viral evolution observed in 98 subjects during a similar phase in HIV infection from a previous study. In contrast to HCV, evolution during acute HIV infection is marked by high levels of amino acid change relative to silent substitutions, including a higher proportion of adaptations, likely reflecting strong and continued CD8+ T-cell pressure combined with greater plasticity of the virus. Understanding viral escape dynamics for these two viruses is important for effective T cell vaccine design.
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Most indices for the assessment of wear of various aetiologies include the distinction between 'enamel still present' and 'dentine exposed' for grading. Since the visual diagnosis of exposed dentine has not yet been validated, the present study is a first attempt to investigate its accuracy and consistency. Sixty-one examiners (23 scientists, 18 university dentists and 20 dental students) were asked to diagnose 49 tooth areas with different grades of wear and to decide whether dentine was exposed (positive test) or not (negative test). Afterwards, the teeth were histologically evaluated. In 44 areas, dentine (also in all cases with minor wear) was exposed, and in 5 areas enamel was present. Overall sensitivity was 0.65, specificity 0.88 and the proportion of correct diagnoses was 0.67. The diagnosis 'dentine is exposed' was about 5 times as likely and the diagnosis 'dentine is not exposed' half as likely to come from an area with exposed dentine than from an enamel-covered area. The closeness of the visual diagnosis to the histological findings was only fair (kappa=0.27), no significant impact of professional experience was found. For inter- and intra-examiner agreement, kappa was 0.28 and 0.55, respectively. It was concluded that the diagnosis of exposed dentine is difficult.
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Eph receptor tyrosine kinases and their cell-surface-bound ligands, the ephrins, regulate axon guidance and bundling in the developing brain, control cell migration and adhesion, and help patterning the embryo. Here we report that two ephrinB ligands and three EphB receptors are expressed in and regulate the formation of the vascular network. Mice lacking ephrinB2 and a proportion of double mutants deficient in EphB2 and EphB3 receptor signaling die in utero before embryonic day 11.5 (E11.5) because of defects in the remodeling of the embryonic vascular system. Our phenotypic analysis suggests complex interactions and multiple functions of Eph receptors and ephrins in the embryonic vasculature. Interaction between ephrinB2 on arteries and its EphB receptors on veins suggests a role in defining boundaries between arterial and venous domains. Expression of ephrinB1 by arterial and venous endothelial cells and EphB3 by veins and some arteries indicates that endothelial cell-to-cell interactions between ephrins and Eph receptors are not restricted to the border between arteries and veins. Furthermore, expression of ephrinB2 and EphB2 in mesenchyme adjacent to vessels and vascular defects in ephB2/ephB3 double mutants indicate a requirement for ephrin-Eph signaling between endothelial cells and surrounding mesenchymal cells. Finally, ephrinB ligands induce capillary sprouting in vitro with a similar efficiency as angiopoietin-1 (Ang1) and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), demonstrating a stimulatory role of ephrins in the remodeling of the developing vascular system.
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BACKGROUND: The retention of patients in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes is an important issue in resource-limited settings. Loss to follow up can be substantial, but it is unclear what the outcomes are in patients who are lost to programmes. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We searched the PubMed, EMBASE, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS), Indian Medlars Centre (IndMed) and African Index Medicus (AIM) databases and the abstracts of three conferences for studies that traced patients lost to follow up to ascertain their vital status. Main outcomes were the proportion of patients traced, the proportion found to be alive and the proportion that had died. Where available, we also examined the reasons why some patients could not be traced, why patients found to be alive did not return to the clinic, and the causes of death. We combined mortality data from several studies using random-effects meta-analysis. Seventeen studies were eligible. All were from sub-Saharan Africa, except one study from India, and none were conducted in children. A total of 6420 patients (range 44 to 1343 patients) were included. Patients were traced using telephone calls, home visits and through social networks. Overall the vital status of 4021 patients could be ascertained (63%, range across studies: 45% to 86%); 1602 patients had died. The combined mortality was 40% (95% confidence interval 33%-48%), with substantial heterogeneity between studies (P<0.0001). Mortality in African programmes ranged from 12% to 87% of patients lost to follow-up. Mortality was inversely associated with the rate of loss to follow up in the programme: it declined from around 60% to 20% as the percentage of patients lost to the programme increased from 5% to 50%. Among patients not found, telephone numbers and addresses were frequently incorrect or missing. Common reasons for not returning to the clinic were transfer to another programme, financial problems and improving or deteriorating health. Causes of death were available for 47 deaths: 29 (62%) died of an AIDS defining illness. CONCLUSIONS: In ART programmes in resource-limited settings a substantial minority of adults lost to follow up cannot be traced, and among those traced 20% to 60% had died. Our findings have implications both for patient care and the monitoring and evaluation of programmes.
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BACKGROUND: Sequencing based mutation screening assays of genes encompassing large numbers of exons could be substantially optimized by multiplex PCR, which enables simultaneous amplification of many targets in one reaction. In the present study, a multiplex PCR protocol originally developed for fragment analysis was evaluated for sequencing based mutation screening of the ornithine transcarbamylase (OTC) and the medium-chain acyl-CoA dehydrogenase (MCAD) genes. METHODS: Single exon and multiplex PCR protocols were applied to generate PCR templates for subsequent DNA sequencing of all exons of the OTC and the MCAD genes. For each PCR protocol and using the same DNA samples, 66 OTC and 98 MCAD sequence reads were generated. The sequences derived from the two different PCR methods were compared at the level of individual signal-to-noise ratios of the four bases and the proportion of high-quality base-signals. RESULTS: The single exon and the multiplex PCR protocol gave qualitatively comparable results for the two genes. CONCLUSIONS: Many existing sequencing based mutation analysis protocols may be easily optimized with the proposed method, since the multiplex PCR protocol was successfully applied without any re-design of the PCR primers and other optimization steps for generating sequencing templates for the OTC and MCAD genes, respectively.
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Employing a scanning tunneling microscopy based beak junction technique and mechanically controlled break junction experiments, we investigated tolane (diphenylacetylene)-type single molecular junctions having four different anchoring groups (SH, pyridyl (PY), NH2, and CN) at a solid/liquid interface. The combination of current–distance and current–voltage measurements and their quantitative statistical analysis revealed the following sequence for junction formation probability and stability: PY > SH > NH2 > CN. For all single molecular junctions investigated, we observed the evolution through multiple junction configurations, with a particularly well-defined binding geometry for PY. The comparison of density functional theory type model calculations and molecular dynamics simulations with the experimental results revealed structure and mechanistic details of the evolution of the different types of (single) molecular junctions upon stretching quantitatively.
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Two consecutive in situ studies were conducted to determine the effects of maturity and frost killing of forages (alfalfa and berseem clover) on degradation kinetics and escape protein concentrations. Four maturities (3, 5, 7, and 9 weeks after second harvest) of forages collected from three locations were used to determine the effects of maturity. Four weeks after a killing frost (-2o C), berseem clover was harvested from the same locations previously sampled. To evaluate maturity, 336 DacronÒ bags containing all maturities of either alfalfa or berseem clover were placed into the rumen of two fistulated steers fed alfalfa-grass hay. Frost killing effects of berseem clover were compared with maturecut berseem clover by placing DacronÒ bags into the rumen of one fistulated steer fed alfalfa hay. Bags were incubated for periods of 0 to 48 hours. With increasing maturity, the proportion of non-degradable protein (NDP) and the rate of crude protein (CP) degradation increased in both forages. While the rate of neutral detergent fiber (NDF) degradation and potentially degradable protein proportion (PDP) increased with increasing maturity in alfalfa, the rate of NDF degradation and PDP proportion decreased and proportion of water soluble protein (WSP) increased in berseem clover. The proportion of protein escaping rumen degradation (PEP) was greater in berseem clover than alfalfa, but was not affected by maturity. Frost killing of mature berseem clover decreased WSP proportion and increased PDP proportion compared to mature berseem clover harvested live. Even though ADIN concentration was higher for frost-killed berseem clover, PEP and total escape protein concentration (CEP) was also higher for frostkilled berseem clover than mature berseem clover harvested live, due to decreases in the rate of ruminal N degradation with frost-killing.
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This progress report focuses on the contribution of tree-ring series to rockfall research and on recent development and challenges in the field. Dendrogeomorphic techniques have been used extensively since the early 2000s and several approaches have been developed to extract rockfall signals from tree-ring records of conifer trees. The reconstruction of rockfall chronologies has been hampered in the past by sample sizes that decrease as one goes back in time, as well as by a paucity of studies that include broadleaved tree species, which are in fact quite common in rockfall-prone environments. In this report, we propose a new approach considering impact probability and quantification of uncertainty in the reconstruction of rockfall time series as well as a quantitative estimate of presumably missed events. In addition, we outline new approaches and future perspectives for the inclusion of woody vegetation in hazard assessment procedures, and end with future thematic perspectives.
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The talk starts out with a short introduction to the philosophy of probability. I highlight the need to interpret probabilities in the sciences and motivate objectivist accounts of probabilities. Very roughly, according to such accounts, ascriptions of probabilities have truth-conditions that are independent of personal interests and needs. But objectivist accounts are pointless if they do not provide an objectivist epistemology, i.e., if they do not determine well-defined methods to support or falsify claims about probabilities. In the rest of the talk I examine recent philosophical proposals for an objectivist methodology. Most of them take up ideas well-known from statistics. I nevertheless find some proposals incompatible with objectivist aspirations.
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Whether interspecific hybridization is important as a mechanism that generates biological diversity is a matter of controversy. Whereas some authors focus on the potential of hybridization as a source of genetic variation, functional novelty and new species, others argue against any important role, because reduced fitness would typically render hybrids an evolutionary dead end. By drawing on recent developments in the genetics and ecology of hybridization and on principles of ecological speciation theory, I develop a concept that reconciles these views and adds a new twist to this debate. Because hybridization is common when populations invade new environments and potentially elevates rates of response to selection, it predisposes colonizing populations to rapid adaptive diversification under disruptive or divergent selection. I discuss predictions and suggest tests of this hybrid swarm theory of adaptive radiation and review published molecular phylogenies of adaptive radiations in light of the theory. Some of the confusion about the role of hybridization in evolutionary diversification stems from the contradiction between a perceived necessity for cessation of gene flow to enable adaptive population differentiation on the one hand [1], and the potential of hybridization for generating adaptive variation, functional novelty and new species 2, 3 and 4 on the other. Much progress in the genetics 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9 and ecology of hybridization 9, 10 and 11, and in our understanding of the role of ecology in speciation (see Glossary) 12, 13 and 14 make a re-evaluation timely. Whereas botanists traditionally stressed the diversity-generating potential of hybridization 2, 3 and 14, zoologists traditionally saw it as a process that limits diversification [1] and refer to it mainly in the contexts of hybrid zones (Box 1) and reinforcement of reproductive isolation [15]. Judging by the wide distribution of allopolyploidy among plants, many plant species might be of direct hybrid origin or descended from a hybrid species in the recent past [16]. The ability to reproduce asexually might explain why allopolyploid hybrid species are more common in plants than in animals. Allopolyploidy arises when meiotic mismatch of parental chromosomes or karyotypes causes hybrid sterility. Mitotic error, duplicating the karyotype, can restore an asexually maintained hybrid line to fertility. Although bisexual allopolyploid hybrid species are not uncommon in fish [17] and frogs [18], the difficulty with which allopolyploid animals reproduce, typically requiring gynogenesis[19], makes establishment and survival of allopolyploid animal species difficult.
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PURPOSE In patients with schizophrenia, premorbid psychosocial adjustment is an important predictor of functional outcome. We studied functional outcome in young clinical high-risk (CHR) patients and how this was predicted by their childhood to adolescence premorbid adjustment. METHODS In all, 245 young help-seeking CHR patients were assessed with the Premorbid Adjustment Scale, the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes (SIPS) and the Schizophrenia Proneness Instrument (SPI-A). The SIPS assesses positive, negative, disorganised, general symptoms, and the Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF), the SPI-A self-experienced basic symptoms; they were carried out at baseline, at 9-month and 18-month follow-up. Transitions to psychosis were identified. In the hierarchical linear model, associations between premorbid adjustment, background data, symptoms, transitions to psychosis and GAF scores were analysed. RESULTS During the 18-month follow-up, GAF scores improved significantly, and the proportion of patients with poor functioning decreased from 74% to 37%. Poor premorbid adjustment, single marital status, poor work status, and symptoms were associated with low baseline GAF scores. Low GAF scores were predicted by poor premorbid adjustment, negative, positive and basic symptoms, and poor baseline work status. The association between premorbid adjustment and follow-up GAF scores remained significant, even when baseline GAF and transition to psychosis were included in the model. CONCLUSION A great majority of help-seeking CHR patients suffer from deficits in their functioning. In CHR patients, premorbid psychosocial adjustment, baseline positive, negative, basic symptoms and poor working/schooling situation predict poor short-term functional outcome. These aspects should be taken into account when acute intervention and long-term rehabilitation for improving outcome in CHR patients are carried out.