Sensitivity of the ERA40 reanalysis to the observing system: determination of the global atmospheric circulation from reduced observations

The impact of selected observing systems on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-yr reanalysis (ERA40) is explored by mimicking observational networks of the past. This is accomplished by systematically removing observations from the present observational data base used by ERA40. The observing systems considered are a surface-based system typical of the period prior to 1945/50, obtained by only retaining the surface observations, a terrestrial-based system typical of the period 1950-1979, obtained by removing all space-based observations, and finally a space-based system, obtained by removing all terrestrial observations except those for surface pressure. Experiments using these different observing systems have been limited to seasonal periods selected from the last 10 yr of ERA40. The results show that the surface-based system has severe limitations in reconstructing the atmospheric state of the upper troposphere and stratosphere. The terrestrial system has major limitations in generating the circulation of the Southern Hemisphere with considerable errors in the position and intensity of individual weather systems. The space-based system is able to analyse the larger-scale aspects of the global atmosphere almost as well as the present observing system but performs less well in analysing the smaller-scale aspects as represented by the vorticity field. Here, terrestrial data such as radiosondes and aircraft observations are of paramount importance. The terrestrial system in the form of a limited number of radiosondes in the tropics is also required to analyse the quasi-biennial oscillation phenomenon in a proper way. The results also show the dominance of the satellite observing system in the Southern Hemisphere. These results all indicate that care is required in using current reanalyses in climate studies due to the large inhomogeneity of the available observations, in particular in time.

The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change

We separate and quantify the sources of uncertainty in projections of regional (*2,500 km) precipitation changes for the twenty-first century using the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble, allowing a direct comparison with a similar analysis for regional temperature changes. For decadal means of seasonal mean precipitation, internal variability is the dominant uncertainty for predictions of the first decade everywhere, and for many regions until the third decade ahead. Model uncertainty is generally the dominant source of uncertainty for longer lead times. Scenario uncertainty is found to be small or negligible for all regions and lead times, apart from close to the poles at the end of the century. For the global mean, model uncertainty dominates at all lead times. The signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) of the precipitation projections is highest at the poles but less than 1 almost everywhere else, and is far lower than for temperature projections. In particular, the tropics have the highest S/N for temperature, but the lowest for precipitation. We also estimate a ‘potential S/N’ by assuming that model uncertainty could be reduced to zero, and show that, for regional precipitation, the gains in S/N are fairly modest, especially for predictions of the next few decades. This finding suggests that adaptation decisions will need to be made in the context of high uncertainty concerning regional changes in precipitation. The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional temperature projections is far greater. These conclusions on S/N are for the current generation of models; the real signal may be larger or smaller than the CMIP3 multi-model mean. Also note that the S/N for extreme precipitation, which is more relevant for many climate impacts, may be larger than for the seasonal mean precipitation considered here.

The CAP and EU enlargement: Prospects for an alternative strategy to avoid the lock-in of CAP support

The integration of the central and east European countries (CEECs) into the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) could become a major problem. At the Copenhagen European summit in December 2002, the EU agreed a transitional period with a gradual phasing in of direct payments. However, this strategy will not solve the problems of the CAP: budgetary limits remain problematic, the policy ignores possible developments in the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the extension of direct payments to the CEECs will further capitalize, and hence lock-in, agricultural support. The latter makes future reform even more difficult and, to overcome these problems, we suggest an alternative strategy to integrate the CEECs into the CAP. The EU should phase out direct payments by applying a bond scheme. Finally, we consider whether this option is politically viable.

Analysis of Pan-European attitudes to the eradication and control of bovine viral diarrhoea

At present, national-level policies concerning the eradication and control of bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) differ widely across Europe. Some Scandinavian countries have enacted strong regulatory frameworks to eradicate the disease, whereas other countries have few formal policies. To examine these differences, the attitudes of stakeholders and policy makers in 17 European countries were investigated. A web-based questionnaire was sent to policy makers, government and private sector veterinarians, and representatives of farmers' organisations. On total, 131 individuals responded to the questionnaire and their responses were analysed by applying a method used in sociolinguistics: frame analysis. The results showed that the different attitudes of countries that applied compulsory or voluntary frameworks were associated with different views about the attribution or blame for BVD and the roles ascribed to farmers and other stakeholders in its eradication and control.

The use of life-cycle assessment to evaluate the environmental impacts of growing genetically modified, nitrogen use-efficient canola

Agriculture, particularly intensive crop production, makes a significant contribution to environmental pollution. A variety of canola (Brassica napus) has been genetically modified to enhance nitrogen use efficiency, effectively reducing the amount of fertilizer required for crop production. A partial life-cycle assessment adapted to crop production was used to assess the potential environmental impacts of growing genetically modified, nitrogen use-efficient (GMNUE) canola in North Dakota and Minnesota compared with a conventionally bred control variety. The analysis took into account the entire production system used to produce 1 tonne of canola. This comprised raw material extraction, processing and transportation, as well as all agricultural field operations. All emissions associated with the production of 1 tonne of canola were listed, aggregated and weighted in order to calculate the level of environmental impact. The findings show that there are a range of potential environmental benefits associated with growing GMNUE canola. These include reduced impacts on global warming, freshwater ecotoxicity, eutrophication and acidification. Given the large areas of canola grown in North America and, in particular, Canada, as well as the wide acceptance of genetically modified varieties in this area, there is the potential for GMNUE canola to reduce pollution from agriculture, with the largest reductions predicted to be in greenhouse gases and diffuse water pollution.

How difficult is it to recover from dangerous levels of global warming?

Climate models provide compelling evidence that if greenhouse gas emissions continue at present rates, then key global temperature thresholds (such as the European Union limit of two degrees of warming since pre-industrial times) are very likely to be crossed in the next few decades. However, there is relatively little attention paid to whether, should a dangerous temperature level be exceeded, it is feasible for the global temperature to then return to safer levels in a usefully short time. We focus on the timescales needed to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gases and associated temperatures back below potentially dangerous thresholds, using a state-of-the-art general circulation model. This analysis is extended with a simple climate model to provide uncertainty bounds. We find that even for very large reductions in emissions, temperature reduction is likely to occur at a low rate. Policy-makers need to consider such very long recovery timescales implicit in the Earth system when formulating future emission pathways that have the potential to 'overshoot' particular atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and, more importantly, related temperature levels that might be considered dangerous.

Pollinator community responses to the spatial population structure of wild plants: A pan-European approach

Land-use changes can alter the spatial population structure of plant species, which may in turn affect the attractiveness of flower aggregations to different groups of pollinators at different spatial scales. To assess how pollinators respond to spatial heterogeneity of plant distributions and whether honeybees affect visitation by other pollinators we used an extensive data set comprising ten plant species and their flower visitors from five European countries. In particular we tested the hypothesis that the composition of the flower visitor community in terms of visitation frequencies by different pollinator groups were affected by the spatial plant population structure, viz. area and density measures, at a within-population (‘patch’) and among-population (‘population’) scale. We found that patch area and population density were the spatial variables that best explained the variation in visitation frequencies within the pollinator community. Honeybees had higher visitation frequencies in larger patches, while bumblebees and hoverflies had higher visitation frequencies in sparser populations. Solitary bees had higher visitation frequencies in sparser populations and smaller patches. We also tested the hypothesis that honeybees affect the composition of the pollinator community by altering the visitation frequencies of other groups of pollinators. There was a positive relationship between visitation frequencies of honeybees and bumblebees, while the relationship with hoverflies and solitary bees varied (positive, negative and no relationship) depending on the plant species under study. The overall conclusion is that the spatial structure of plant populations affects different groups of pollinators in contrasting ways at both the local (‘patch’) and the larger (‘population’) scales and, that honeybees affect the flower visitation by other pollinator groups in various ways, depending on the plant species under study. These contrasting responses emphasize the need to investigate the entire pollinator community when the effects of landscape change on plant–pollinator interactions are studied.

Applying Jackson’s methodological ideal-types: problems of differentiation and classification

In The Conduct of Inquiry in International Relations, Patrick Jackson situates methodologies in International Relations in relation to their underlying philosophical assumptions. One of his aims is to map International Relations debates in a way that ‘capture[s] current controversies’ (p. 40). This ambition is overstated: whilst Jackson’s typology is useful as a clarificatory tool, (re)classifying existing scholarship in International Relations is more problematic. One problem with Jackson’s approach is that he tends to run together the philosophical assumptions which decisively differentiate his methodologies (by stipulating a distinctive warrant for knowledge claims) and the explanatory strategies that are employed to generate such knowledge claims, suggesting that the latter are entailed by the former. In fact, the explanatory strategies which Jackson associates with each methodology reflect conventional practice in International Relations just as much as they reflect philosophical assumptions. This makes it more difficult to identify each methodology at work than Jackson implies. I illustrate this point through a critical analysis of Jackson’s controversial reclassification of Waltz as an analyticist, showing that whilst Jackson’s typology helps to expose inconsistencies in Waltz’s approach, it does not fully support the proposed reclassification. The conventional aspect of methodologies in International Relations also raises questions about the limits of Jackson’s ‘engaged pluralism’.

Does energy efficiency matter to home-buyers? An investigation of EPC ratings and transaction prices in England

This paper investigates whether energy performance ratings, as measured by mandatory Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs), are reflected in the sale prices of residential properties. This is the first large-scale empirical study of this topic in England involving 333,095 dwellings sold at least twice in the period from 1995 to 2012. Applying hedonic regression and an augmented repeat sales regression, we find a positive relationship between the energy efficiency rating of a dwelling and the transaction price per square metre. The price effects of superior energy performance tend to be higher for terraced dwellings and flats compared to detached and semi-detached dwellings. The evidence is less clear-cut for rates of house price growth but remains supportive of a positive association. Overall, the results of this study suggest that energy efficiency labels have a measurable and significant impact on house prices in England

COCO-2: a model to assess the economic impact of an accident

COCO-2 is a model for assessing the potential economic costs likely to arise off-site following an accident at a nuclear reactor. COCO-2 builds on work presented in the model COCO-1 developed in 1991 by considering economic effects in more detail, and by including more sources of loss. Of particular note are: the consideration of the directly affected local economy, indirect losses that stem from the directly affected businesses, losses due to changes in tourism consumption, integration with the large body of work on recovery after an accident and a more systematic approach to health costs. The work, where possible, is based on official data sources for reasons of traceability, maintenance and ease of future development. This report describes the methodology and discusses the results of an example calculation. Guidance on how the base economic data can be updated in the future is also provided.

A methodology to measure the environmental impact of ICT operating systems across different device platforms

Abstract: A new methodology was created to measure the energy consumption and related green house gas (GHG) emissions of a computer operating system (OS) across different device platforms. The methodology involved the direct power measurement of devices under different activity states. In order to include all aspects of an OS, the methodology included measurements in various OS modes, whilst uniquely, also incorporating measurements when running an array of defined software activities, so as to include OS application management features. The methodology was demonstrated on a laptop and phone that could each run multiple OSs, results confirmed that OS can significantly impact the energy consumption of devices. In particular, the new versions of the Microsoft Windows OS were tested and highlighted significant differences between the OS versions on the same hardware. The developed methodology could enable a greater awareness of energy consumption, during both the software development and software marketing processes.

Exploring methods to evaluate the carbon impact of network investment deferral

Replacement, expansion and upgrading of assets in the electricity network represents financial investment for the distribution utilities. Network Investment Deferral (NID) is a well discussed benefit of wider adoption of Distributed Generation (DG). There have been many attempts to quantify and evaluate the financial benefit for the distribution utilities. While the carbon benefits of NID are commonly mentioned, there is little attempt to quantify these impacts. This paper explores the quantitative methods previously used to evaluate financial benefits in order to discuss the carbon impacts. These carbon impacts are important for companies owning DG equipment for internal reporting and emissions reductions ambitions. Currently, a GB wide approach is taken as a means for discussing more regional and local methods to be used in future work. By investigating these principles, the paper offers a novel approach to quantifying carbon emissions from various DG technologies.

Hypothalamic sites responding to predator threats - the role of the dorsal premammillary nucleus in unconditioned and conditioned antipredatory defensive behavior

In this study we provide a comprehensive analysis of the hypothalamic activation pattern during exposure to a live predator or an environment previously associated with a predator. Our results support the view that hypothalamic processing of the actual and the contextual predatory threats share the same circuit, in which the dorsal premammillary nucleus (PMd) plays a pivotal role in amplifying this processing. To further understand the role of the PMd in the circuit organizing antipredatory defensive behaviors, we studied rats with cytotoxic PMd lesions during cat exposure and examined the pattern of behavioral responses as well as how PMd lesions affect the neuronal activation of the systems engaged in predator detection, in contextual memory formation and in defensive behavioral responses. Next, we investigated how pharmacological blockade of the PMd interferes with the conditioned behavioral responses to a context previously associated with a predator, and how this blockade affects the activation pattern of periaqueductal gray (PAG) sites likely to organize the conditioned behavioral responses to the predatory context. Behavioral observations indicate that the PMd interferes with both unconditioned and conditioned antipredatory defensive behavior. Moreover, we have shown that the PMd influences the activation of its major projecting targets, i.e. the ventral part of the anteromedial thalamic nucleus which is likely to influence mnemonic processing, and PAG sites involved in the expression of antipredatory unconditioned and conditioned behavioral responses. Of particular relevance, this work provides evidence to elucidate the basic organization of the neural circuits integrating unconditioned and contextual conditioned responses to predatory threats.

Time-resolved study electronic and thermal contributions to the nonlinear refractive index of Nd3+: SBN laser crystals

The propagation of an optical beam through dielectric media induces changes in the refractive index, An, which causes self-focusing or self-defocusing. In the particular case of ion-doped solids, there are thermal and non-thermal lens effects, where the latter is due to the polarizability difference, Delta alpha, between the excited and ground states, the so-called population lens (PL) effect. PL is a pure electronic contribution to the nonlinearity, while the thermal lens (TL) effect is caused by the conversion of part of the absorbed energy into heat. In time-resolved measurements such as Z-scan and TL transient experiments, it is not easy to separate these two contributions to nonlinear refractive index because they usually have similar response times. In this work, we performed time-resolved measurements using both Z-scan and mode mismatched TL in order to discriminate thermal and electronic contributions to the laser-induced refractive index change of the Nd3+-doped Strontium Barium Niobate (SrxBa1-xNb2O6) laser crystal. Combining numerical simulations with experimental results we could successfully distinguish between the two contributions to An. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Role of the triad N46, S106 and T107 and the surface charges in the determination of the acidic pH optimum of digestive lysozymes from Musca domestica

Structures of digestive lysozymes 1 and 2 from housefly (MdL1 and MdL2) show that S106-T107 delimit a polar pocket around E32 (catalytic acid/base) and N46 contributes to the positioning of 050 (catalytic nucleophile), whereas those residues are replaced by V109-A110 and D48 in the non-digestive lysozyme from hen egg-white (HEWL). Further analyses revealed that MdL1 and MdL2 surfaces are less positively charged than HEWL surface. To verify the relevance of these differences to the acidic pH optimum of digestive lysozymes it was determined that pKas of the catalytic residues of the triple mutant MdL2 (N46D-S106V-T107A) are similar to HEWL pKas and higher than those for MdL2. In agreement, triple mutant MdL2 and HEWL exhibits the same pH optimum upon methylumbelliferylchitotrioside. In addition to that, the introduction of six basic residues on MdL1 surface increased by 1 unit the pH optimum for the activity upon bacterial walls. Thus, the acidic pH optimum for MdL2 and MdL1 activities upon methylumbelliferylchitotrioside is determined by the presence of N46, S106 and T107 in the environment of their catalytic residues, which favors pKas reduction. Conversely, acidic pH optimum upon bacterial walls is determined by a low concentration of positive charges on the MdL2 and MdL1 surfaces. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.