Fractional Integration of the Price-Dividend Ratio in a Present-Value Model of Stock Prices

We re-examine the dynamics of returns and dividend growth within the present-value framework of stock prices. We find that the finite sample order of integration of returns is approximately equal to the order of integration of the first-differenced price-dividend ratio. As such, the traditional return forecasting regressions based on the price-dividend ratio are invalid. Moreover, the nonstationary long memory behaviour of the price-dividend ratio induces antipersistence in returns. This suggests that expected returns should be modelled as an AFIRMA process and we show this improves the forecast ability of the present-value model in-sample and out-of-sample.

Oil price shocks and labor market fluctuations

We examine the impact of real oil price shocks on labor market flows in the U.S. We first use smooth transition regression (STR) models to investigate to what extent oil prices can be considered as a driving force of labor market fluctuations. Then we develop and calibrate a modified version of Pissarides' (2000) model with energy costs, which we simulate in response to shocks mimicking the behavior of the actual oil price shocks. We find that (i) these shocks are an important driving force of job market flows; (ii) the job finding probability is the main transmission mechanism of such shocks; and (iii) they bring a new amplification mechanism for the volatility and should thus be seen as complementary of labor productivity shocks. Overall we conclude that shocks in oil prices cannot be neglected in explaining cyclical labor adjustments in the U.S.

Update of the Gene Discovery Program in Schistosoma mansoni with the Expressed Sequence Tag Approach

Continuing the Schistosoma mansoni Genome Project 363 new templates were sequenced generating 205 more ESTs corresponding to 91 genes. Seventy four of these genes (81%) had not previously been described in S. mansoni. Among the newly discovered genes there are several of significant biological interest such as synaptophysin, NIFs-like and rho-GDP dissociation inhibitor

What if there was a stronger pharmaceutical price competition in Spain? When regulation has a similar effect to collusion

This paper examines statins competition in the Spanish pharmaceutical market, where prices are highly regulated, and simulates a situation in which there is unrestricted price competition. A nested logit demand model is estimated with a panel of monthly data for pharmaceuticals prescribed from 1997 to 2005. The simulation indicates that the regulation of prices is similar in its effects to cooperation among producers, since the regulated prices are close to those that would be observed in a scenario of perfect collusion. Freedom to set prices and a regulatory framework with appropriate incentives would result in a general reduction in prices and may make the current veiled competition in the form of discounts to pharmacists become more visible. The decrease in prices would be partially offset by an increase in consumption but the net effect would be an overall decrease in expenditure. The counterfactual set-up would also lead to important changes in the market shares of both manufacturers and active ingredients, and a reversal of generic drugs. Therefore, pro-competitive regulation would be welfare-enhancing but would imply winners and losers.

Generic drugs in Spain: price competition vs. moral hazard

This paper examines competition between generic and brand-name drugs in the regulated Spanish pharmaceutical market. A nested logit demand model is specified for the three most consumed therapeutic subgroups in Spain: statins (anticholesterol), selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (antidepressants) and proton pump inhibitors (antiulcers). The model is estimated with instrumental variables from a panel of monthly prescription data from 1999 to 2005. The dataset distinguishes between three different levels of patients’ copayments within the prescriptions and the results show that the greater the level of insurance that the patient has (and therefore the lower the patient’s copayment), the lower the proportion of generic prescriptions made by physicians. It seems that the low level of copayment has delayed the penetration of generics into the Spanish market. Additionally, the estimation of the demand model suggests that the substitution rules and promotional efforts associated with the reference pricing system have increased generic market share, and that being among the first generic entrants has an additional positive effect.

Response to Heterologous Leishmanins in Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Nigeria: Discovery of a New Focus

A pilot study was undertaken to preliminary illustrate the leishmanin skin test (LST) positivity to distinct antigen preparations (derived from promastigote of either Leishmania major or L. amazonensis, or pooled L. mexicana, L. amazonensis and L. guyanensis) in cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) patients and healthy subjects living in two endemic foci in Nigeria. The study was designed to provide insights into whether cross-species leishmanin, such as that prepared from New World Leishmania could be useful to detect cases of Old World leishmanial infection and to compare the results with LST using L. major-derived leishmanin. The overall LST positivity in individuals from Keana tested with the cross-species leishmanin was 28.7% (27/94), while the positivity rate in the subjects from Kanana tested with the same leishmanin was 54.5% (6/11). Lower positivity values were obtained when L. major (12.5%; 11/88) or L. amazonensis (15.8%; 9/57) was tested as antigen in grossly comparable populations. Moreover, the pooled leishmanin identified most of the subjects (13/14; 92.9%) with active or healed CL, and the maximum reaction sizes were found among positive subjects in this group. No healthy controls (10 total) showed specific DTH response. The LST was useful for assessing the prevalence of subclinical infection and for measuring CL transmission over time. We report for the first time the occurrence of CL in Kanana village of Langtang South local government area of Plateau State

Age effects, unobserved characteristics and hedonic price indexes: The Spanish car market in the 1990s

This paper computes and compares alternative quality-adjusted price indexes for new cars in Spain in the period 1990-2000. The proposed hedonic approach simultaneously controls for time-invariant unobserved product e¤ects and time-variant unobserved quality changes, that are assumed to be captured by model age effects. The results show that the non-adjusted price index largely overstates the increase in the cost of living induced by changes in car prices and that previous evidence for this market have not measured the real extent of that bias, probably due to the omission of controls for unobservables. It is also shown that omitting age effects can also lead to misleading conclusions. The estimated price indexes give also some insights on what could have been the determinants of price evolution in the Spanish car market.

Age effects, unobserved characteristics and hedonic price indexes: The Spanish car market in the 1990's

This paper computes and compares alternative quality-adjusted price indexes for new cars in Spain in the period 1990-2000. The proposed hedonic approach simultaneously controls for time-invariant unobserved product effects and time-variant unobserved quality changes, that are assumed to be captured by model age effects. The results show that the non-adjusted price index largely overstates the increase in the cost of living induced by changes in car prices and that previous evidence for this market have not measured the real extent of that bias, probably due to the omission of controls for unobservables. It is also shown that omitting age effects can also lead to misleading conclusions. The estimated price indexes give also some insights on what could have been the determinants of price evolution in the Spanish car market. JEL classi…fication numbers: C43, E31, L11, L13, Keywords: Hedonic price indexes, Spanish car market, car prices, CPI, Cost of living

Evolution of the clinical and epidemiological knowledge about Chagas disease 90 years after its discovery

Three different periods may be considered in the evolution of knowledge about the clinical and epidemiological aspects of Chagas disease since its discovery: (a) early period concerning the studies carried out by Carlos Chagas in Lassance with the collaboration of other investigators of the Manguinhos School. At that time the disease was described and the parasite, transmitters and reservoirs were studied. The coexistence of endemic goiter in the same region generated some confusion about the clinical forms of the disease; (b) second period involving uncertainty and the description of isolated cases, which lasted until the 1940 decade. Many acute cases were described during this period and the disease was recognized in many Latin American countries. Particularly important were the studies of the Argentine Mission of Regional Pathology Studies, which culminated with the description of the Romaña sign in the 1930 decade, facilitating the diagnosis of the early phase of the disease. However, the chronic phase, which was the most important, continued to be difficult to recognize; (c) period of consolidation of knowledge and recognition of the importance of Chagas disease. Studies conducted by Laranja, Dias and Nóbrega in Bambuí updated the description of Chagas heart disease made by Carlos Chagas and Eurico Villela. From then on, the disease was more easily recognized, especially with the emphasis on the use of a serologic diagnosis; (d) period of enlargement of knowledges on the disease. The studies on denervation conducted in Ribeirão Preto by Fritz Köberle starting in the 1950 decade led to a better understanding of the relations between Chagas disease and megaesophagus and other visceral megas detected in endemic areas.

Discovery of new intracellular pathogens by amoebal coculture and amoebal enrichment approaches.

Intracellular pathogens such as legionella, mycobacteria and Chlamydia-like organisms are difficult to isolate because they often grow poorly or not at all on selective media that are usually used to cultivate bacteria. For this reason, many of these pathogens were discovered only recently or following important outbreaks. These pathogens are often associated with amoebae, which serve as host-cell and allow the survival and growth of the bacteria. We intend here to provide a demonstration of two techniques that allow isolation and characterization of intracellular pathogens present in clinical or environmental samples: the amoebal coculture and the amoebal enrichment. Amoebal coculture allows recovery of intracellular bacteria by inoculating the investigated sample onto an amoebal lawn that can be infected and lysed by the intracellular bacteria present in the sample. Amoebal enrichment allows recovery of amoebae present in a clinical or environmental sample. This can lead to discovery of new amoebal species but also of new intracellular bacteria growing specifically in these amoebae. Together, these two techniques help to discover new intracellular bacteria able to grow in amoebae. Because of their ability to infect amoebae and resist phagocytosis, these intracellular bacteria might also escape phagocytosis by macrophages and thus, be pathogenic for higher eukaryotes.

Price policies and Price dispersion in the private healthcare insurance industry: The Catalan case

We present an overlapping generations model that explains price dispersion among Catalonian healthcare insurance firms. The model shows that firms with different premium policies can coexist. Furthermore, if interest rates are low, firms that apply equal premium to all insureds can charge higher average prices than insurers that set premiums according to the risk of insured. Economic theory, health insurance, health economics.