Stochastic Simulations Suggest that HIV-1 Survives Close to Its Error Threshold

The use of mutagenic drugs to drive HIV-1 past its error threshold presents a novel intervention strategy, as suggested by the quasispecies theory, that may be less susceptible to failure via viral mutation-induced emergence of drug resistance than current strategies. The error threshold of HIV-1, mu(c), however, is not known. Application of the quasispecies theory to determine mu(c) poses significant challenges: Whereas the quasispecies theory considers the asexual reproduction of an infinitely large population of haploid individuals, HIV-1 is diploid, undergoes recombination, and is estimated to have a small effective population size in vivo. We performed population genetics-based stochastic simulations of the within-host evolution of HIV-1 and estimated the structure of the HIV-1 quasispecies and mu(c). We found that with small mutation rates, the quasispecies was dominated by genomes with few mutations. Upon increasing the mutation rate, a sharp error catastrophe occurred where the quasispecies became delocalized in sequence space. Using parameter values that quantitatively captured data of viral diversification in HIV-1 patients, we estimated mu(c) to be 7 x 10(-5) -1 x 10(-4) substitutions/site/replication, similar to 2-6 fold higher than the natural mutation rate of HIV-1, suggesting that HIV-1 survives close to its error threshold and may be readily susceptible to mutagenic drugs. The latter estimate was weakly dependent on the within-host effective population size of HIV-1. With large population sizes and in the absence of recombination, our simulations converged to the quasispecies theory, bridging the gap between quasispecies theory and population genetics-based approaches to describing HIV-1 evolution. Further, mu(c) increased with the recombination rate, rendering HIV-1 less susceptible to error catastrophe, thus elucidating an added benefit of recombination to HIV-1. Our estimate of mu(c) may serve as a quantitative guideline for the use of mutagenic drugs against HIV-1.

A finite population model of mlecular evolution: theory and computation

This article is concerned with the evolution of haploid organisms that reproduce asexually. In a seminal piece of work, Eigen and coauthors proposed the quasispecies model in an attempt to understand such an evolutionary process. Their work has impacted antiviral treatment and vaccine design strategies. Yet, predictions of the quasispecies model are at best viewed as a guideline, primarily because it assumes an infinite population size, whereas realistic population sizes can be quite small. In this paper we consider a population genetics-based model aimed at understanding the evolution of such organisms with finite population sizes and present a rigorous study of the convergence and computational issues that arise therein. Our first result is structural and shows that, at any time during the evolution, as the population size tends to infinity, the distribution of genomes predicted by our model converges to that predicted by the quasispecies model. This justifies the continued use of the quasispecies model to derive guidelines for intervention. While the stationary state in the quasispecies model is readily obtained, due to the explosion of the state space in our model, exact computations are prohibitive. Our second set of results are computational in nature and address this issue. We derive conditions on the parameters of evolution under which our stochastic model mixes rapidly. Further, for a class of widely used fitness landscapes we give a fast deterministic algorithm which computes the stationary distribution of our model. These computational tools are expected to serve as a framework for the modeling of strategies for the deployment of mutagenic drugs.

Determination of size-independent specific fracture energy of concrete mixes by two methods

The RILEM work-of-fracture method for measuring the specific fracture energy of concrete from notched three-point bend specimens is still the most common method used throughout the world, despite the fact that the specific fracture energy so measured is known to vary with the size and shape of the test specimen. The reasons for this variation have also been known for nearly two decades, and two methods have been proposed in the literature to correct the measured size-dependent specific fracture energy (G(f)) in order to obtain a size-independent value (G(F)). It has also been proved recently, on the basis of a limited set of results on a single concrete mix with a compressive strength of 37 MPa, that when the size-dependent G(f) measured by the RILEM method is corrected following either of these two methods, the resulting specific fracture energy G(F) is very nearly the same and independent of the size of the specimen. In this paper, we will provide further evidence in support of this important conclusion using extensive independent test results of three different concrete mixes ranging in compressive strength from 57 to 122 MPa. (c) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling harvest rates and numbers from age and sex ratios: A demonstration for elephant populations

Illegal harvest rates of wildlife populations are often unknown or difficult to estimate from field data due to under-reporting or incomplete detection of carcasses. This is especially true for elephants that are killed for ivory or in conflicts with people. We describe a method to infer harvest rates from coarse field data of three population parameters, namely, adult female to male ratio, male old-adult to young-adult ratio, and proportion of adult males in the population using Jensen's (2000) 2-sex, density-dependent Leslie matrix model. The specific combination of male and female harvest rates and numbers can be determined from the history of harvest and estimate of population size. We applied this technique to two populations of elephants for which data on age structure and records of mortality were available-a forest-dwelling population of the Asian elephant (at Nagarahole, India) and an African savannah elephant population (at Samburu, Kenya) that had experienced male-biased harvest regimes over 2-3 decades. For the Nagarahole population, the recorded numbers of male and female elephants killed illegally during 1981-2000 were 64% and 88% of the values predicted by the model, respectively, implying some non-detection or incomplete reporting while for the Samburu population the recorded and modeled numbers of harvest during 1990-1999 closely matched. This technique, applicable to any animal population following logistic growth model, can be especially useful for inferring illegal harvest numbers of forest elephants in Africa and Asia.

Modeling harvest rates and numbers from age and sex ratios: A demonstration for elephant populations

Illegal harvest rates of wildlife populations are often unknown or difficult to estimate from field data due to under-reporting or incomplete detection of carcasses. This is especially true for elephants that are killed for ivory or in conflicts with people. We describe a method to infer harvest rates from coarse field data of three population parameters, namely, adult female to male ratio, male old-adult to young-adult ratio, and proportion of adult males in the population using Jensen's (2000) 2-sex, density-dependent Leslie matrix model. The specific combination of male and female harvest rates and numbers can be determined from the history of harvest and estimate of population size. We applied this technique to two populations of elephants for which data on age structure and records of mortality were available-a forest-dwelling population of the Asian elephant (at Nagarahole, India) and an African savannah elephant population (at Samburu, Kenya) that had experienced male-biased harvest regimes over 2-3 decades. For the Nagarahole population, the recorded numbers of male and female elephants killed illegally during 1981-2000 were 64% and 88% of the values predicted by the model, respectively, implying some non-detection or incomplete reporting while for the Samburu population the recorded and modeled numbers of harvest during 1990-1999 closely matched. This technique, applicable to any animal population following logistic growth model, can be especially useful for inferring illegal harvest numbers of forest elephants in Africa and Asia. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Thermal co-reduction approach to vary size of silver nanoparticle: its microbial and cellular toxicology

In recent years, silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) have attracted considerable interest in the field of food, agriculture and pharmaceuticals mainly due to its antibacterial activity. AgNPs have also been reported to possess toxic behavior. The toxicological behavior of nanomaterials largely depends on its size and shape which ultimately depend on synthetic protocol. A systematic and detailed analysis for size variation of AgNP by thermal co-reduction approach and its efficacy toward microbial and cellular toxicological behavior is presented here. With the focus to explore the size-dependent toxicological variation, two different-sized NPs have been synthesized, i.e., 60 nm (Ag60) and 85 nm (Ag85). A detailed microbial toxicological evaluation has been performed by analyzing minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC), minimum bactericidal concentration (MBC), diameter of inhibition zone (DIZ), growth kinetics (GrK), and death kinetics (DeK). Comparative cytotoxicological behavior was analyzed by 3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2,5-diphenyltetrazolium bromide (MTT) assay. It has been concluded by this study that the size of AgNPs can be varied, by varying the concentration of reactants and temperature called as ``thermal co-reduction'' approach, which is one of the suitable approaches to meet the same. Also, the smaller AgNP has shown more microbial and cellular toxicity.

PICES-GLOBEC International Program on Climate Change and Carrying Capacity

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY WORKSHOP OVERVIEW Introduction Goals and objectives of the workshop Organizing committee, participants, sponsors and venue Workshop activity NEMURO.FISH COUPLED WITH A POPULATION DYNAMICS MODEL (SAURY) Introduction One cohort case with no reproduction Two (overlapping) cohort scenario with no reproduction Two-cohort case with no reproduction and body size-dependent mortality Two-cohort case with reproduction and KL-dependent mortality Conclusions and future perspectives LAGRANGIAN MODEL OF NEMURO.FISH Tasks and members Description of model and preliminary results Future tasks COUPLING NEMURO TO HERRING BIOENERGETICS Overview Details of the NEMURO_Herring model Example simulation of NEMURO_Herring Future plans REFERENCES APPENDICES Workshop participants Workshop schedule Lagrangian model (FORTRAN program) (55 page document)

Population response of triploid grass carp to declining levels of hydrilla in the Santee Cooper Reservoirs, South Carolina

Approximately 768,500 triploid grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella Valenciennes) were stocked into the Santee Cooper reservoirs, South Carolina between 1989 and 1996 to control hydrilla ( Hydrilla verticillata (L.f.) Royle). Hydrilla coverage was reduced from a high of 17,272 ha during 1994 to a few ha by 1998. During 1997, 1998 and 1999, at least 98 triploid grass carp were collected yearly for population monitoring. Estimates of age, growth, and mortality, as well as population models, were used in the study to monitor triploid grass carp and predict population trends. Condition declined from that measured during a previous study in 1994. The annual mortality rate was estimated at 28% in 1997, 32% in 1998 and 39% in 1999; however, only the 1999 mortality rate was significantly different. Few (2 out of 98) of the triploid grass carp collected during 1999 were older than age 9. We expect increased mortality due to an aging population and sparse hydrilla coverage. During 1999, we estimated about 63,000 triploid grass carp system wide and project less than 3,000 fish by 2004, assuming no future stocking. management, population size Ctenopharyngodon idella, Hydrilla

Population assessment of two stocks of white grunt, Haemulon plumieri, from the southeastern coast of the United States

Changes in the age structure and population size of white grunt, Haemulon plumieri, from North Carolina through the Florida Keys were examined using records of landings and size frequencies of fish from commercial, re~reational, and headboat fisheries from 1986-1998. Data were stratified into two geographical areas: North Carolina and South Carolina; and southeast Florida. Population size in numbers at age was estimated for each year and geographical area by applying an uncalibrated separable virtual population analysis (SVPA) to the landings in numbers at age. A calibrated virtual population analysis, FADAPT, was also run for data from North Carolina and South Carolina. SVPA and FADAPT were used to estimate annual, age-specific fishing mortality (F) for four levels of natural mortality (M = 0.20, 0.25, 0.30, and 0.35). The best estimate of M for white grunt is 0.30. Landings of white grunt in the Carolinas for the three fisheries have generally decreased in recent years, but have held fairly steady for the species in southeast Florida. Age at entry and age at full recruitment were age-1 and age-4 for the Carolinas, and age-l and age-3 for southeast Florida. With M = 0.30, levels of fishing mortality (F) on the fully-recruited ages were 0.23 for the Carolinas and 0.33 for southeast Florida. Spawning potential ratio (SPR) at M = 0.30 was 57% for the Carolinas and 61% for southeast Florida, which indicates that the species, by definition, has not been over-exploited by fishing. The results of this assessment of the white grunt population off the Carolinas agree with the recent F/FMSY analysis of white grunt (Anonymous, 1999). (PDF contaons 72 pages)

Impact of the commercial fishery on the population of bait shrimp (Penaeus spp.) in Biscayne Bay, 1986

Monthly population size of bait shrimp in the Bay was estimated from December 1984 to July 1985. Growth rates for male and female P. duorarum showed that pink shrimp exhibit a mean residence time in the nursery area (Biscayne Bay) of approximately 21 weeks. Monthly mortality rates were determined for each sex of pink shrimp. It was estimated that 23% and 26% of the male and female monthly population size, respectively, was absorbed by both the fishery and ecosystem monthly. Monthly proportion of the standing stock expected to die exclusively through fishing was 6.5% and 6.0% for males and females respectively. Estimates of emigration rates showed that approximately 4.0% of the population was lost from the Bay system each month. This surplus production was about 50% of the average monthly catch by the fleet. Fishing mortality represents only 8 - 9% of the losses to the shrimp population. The biggest source of loss is emigration, suggesting that most shrimp beyond the size at recruitment (to the fishery) are not utilized for food while in the Bay. Thus, it appears that the direct impact of the fishery on the bait shrimp population is relatively small. (PDF contains 46 pages)

Population assessment of the vermilion snapper, Rhomboplites aurorubens, from the Southeastern United States

Changes in the age structure and population size of vermilion snapper, Rhornboplites aurorubens, from North Carolina through the Florida Keys were examined using records of landings and size frequencies of fish from commercial, recreational, and headboat fisheries from 1986-1996. Population size in numbers at age was estimated for each year by applying separable virtual population analysis (SVPA) to the landings in numbers at age. SVPA was used to estimate annual, age-specific fishing mortality (F) for four levels of natural mortality (M = 0.20, 0.25, 0.30, and 0.35). Although landings of vermilion snapper for the three fisheries have declined, minimum fish size regulations have resulted in an increase in the mean size of fish landed. Age at entry and age at full recruitment were age-1 andage-3 fDr 1986-1991, compared with age-1 and age-4, respectively, for 1992-1996. Levels of mortality from fishing (F) ranged from 0.38 - 0.61 for the entire period. Current spawning potential ratio (SPR) is 21% or 27% depending on the natural mortality estimate. SPR could be raised to 30% or 40% with a reduction in F, or by increasing the age at entry to the fisheries. The latter could be enhanced now if fishermen, particularly recreational, comply with minimum size regulations. However, released fish mortality, modeled in the assessment at 27%, will continue to make the achievement of 30% and 40% SPR more difficult. (PDF contains 63 pages)

Diversidade genética em um grupo de anuros em miniatura endêmico da Mata Atlântica brasileira (Euparkerella Griffiths 1959).

A Mata Atlântica (MA) está entre as regiões com maior biodiversidade e mais ameaçadas do planeta. Esforços em diversas áreas do conhecimento têm sido feitos para que se tenha uma estimativa mais refinada da diversidade existente e sua organização ao longo do bioma. O crescente número de estudos que buscam reconstituir a história da diversificação da MA apontam para um cenário espacial e temporal complexo, havendo ainda uma lacuna no conhecimento dos processos em pequena escala. Vertebrados em miniatura têm se mostrado uma boa ferramenta para estudos de processos evolutivos em pequena escala. Assim, o gênero Euparkerella, endêmico de uma pequena região da MA dos Estados do Rio de Janeiro (RJ) e Espírito Santo (ES), foi escolhido como modelo para este estudo. No primeiro capítulo buscou-se descrever a diversidade existente dentro do gênero a partir de uma filogenia molecular. Para isso, utilizaram-se métodos bayesianos para gerar genealogias de genes e de espécies a partir de um fragmento de gene mitocondrial e quatro fragmentos de genes nucleares. Os resultados obtidos apontaram para uma grande diversidade críptica no gênero. Foram identificadas seis unidades evolutivas significativamente divergentes para o RJ: duas em Euparkerella cochranae, três em Euparkerella brasiliensis, e Euparkerella sp.. A espécie mais basal recuperada foi Euparkerella robusta, do ES, e estimou-se o início da diversificação do gênero para o final do Mioceno. O segundo capítulo descreve onze marcadores de microssatélites desenvolvidos para Euparkerella brasiliensis através do método de pirosequenciamento de nova geração 454. No terceiro capítulo estudou-se apenas uma unidade evolutiva, Euparkerella brasiliensis da área dos Três Picos/ RJ. A partir de marcadores de evolução rápida (microssatélites) e lenta (sequências de DNA) buscou-se compreender a estrutura e a dinâmica populacional desta unidade evolutiva em uma área bastante pequena (aprox. 20 km) sob influência de um gradiente ambiental altitudinal (40 m 1000 m). Foram identificadas, a partir dos microssatélites, duas subpopulações geneticamente distintas nas bordas do gradiente. O fluxo gênico se deu predominantemente das bordas para a zona de contato, onde foi observado o maior efetivo populacional. Tais resultados indicam que pequenas variações ambientais podem atuar no isolamento populacional em Euparkerella e corroboram o padrão de formas microendêmicas identificadas na filogenia. Futuros estudos devem ser feitos no sentido de buscar caracterizar morfologicamente as unidades evolutivas aqui identificadas; preencher as lacunas amostrais, especialmente no ES; e descrever os processos que atuam em pequena escala nas zonas de contato entre as unidades evolutivas e fatores limitantes a distribuição das mesmas.

Ontogenetic patterns and temperature-dependent growth rates in early life stages of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus)

Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) is an important component of fisheries and food webs in the North Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea. However, vital rates of early life stages of this species have yet to be described in detail. We determined the thermal sensitivity of growth rates of embryos, preflexion and postflexion larvae, and postsettlement juveniles. Growth rates (length and mass) at each ontogenetic stage were measured in three replicate tanks at four to five temperatures. Nonlinear regression was used to obtain parameters for independent stage-specific growth functions and a unified size- and temperature-dependent growth function. Specific growth rates increased with temperature at all stages and generally decreased with increases in body size. However, these analyses revealed a departure from a strict size-based allometry in growth patterns, as reduced growth rates were observed among preflexion larvae: the reduction in specific growth rate between embryos and free-swimming larvae was greater than expected based on body size differences. Growth reductions in the preflexion larvae appear to be associated with increased metabolic rates and the transition from endogenous to exogenous feeding. In future studies, experiments should be integrated across life transitions to more clearly define intrinsic ontogenetic and size-dependent growth patterns because these are critical for evaluations of spatial and temporal variation in habitat quality.

Abundance and distribution of the eastern North Pacific Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) population

The eastern Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) population comprises animals that breed along the west coast of North America between California and southeastern Alaska. There are currently 13 major rookeries (>50 pups): five in southeastern Alaska, three in British Columbia, two in Oregon, and three in California. Overall abundance has increased at an average annual rate of 3.1% since the 1970s. These increases can largely be attributed to population recovery from predator-control kills and commercial harvests, and abundance is now probably as high as it has been in the last century. The number of rookeries has remained fairly constant (n=11 to 13) over the past 80 years, but there has been a northward shift in distribution of both rookeries and numbers of animals. Based on the number of pups counted in a population-wide survey in 2002, total pup production was estimated to be about 11,000 (82% in southeastern Alaska and British Columbia), representing a total population size as approximately 46,000−58,000 animal

Ecology and growth of juvenile California spiny lobster, Panulirus interruptus (Randall)

ABSTRACT TRANSCRIBED FROM ENGLE'S PH.D. ORAL DEFENSE PAMPHLET: The natural history of juvenile California spiny lobster, Panulirus interruptus (Randall), was investigated, with primary emphasis placed on ascertaining juvenile habitats, determining juvenile growth rates and component growth processes, and evaluating ecological and behavioral phenomena associated with juvenile survival and growth. Habitat surveys of island and mainland localities throughout southern and lower California revealed that small, greenish juveniles typically inhabit crevices or temporary burrows in 0-4m deep, wave-swept rocky habitats covered by dense beds of surf grass, Phyllospadix torreyi S. Watson. Phyllospadix beds were more abundant on gradually sloping rocky mainland beaches than on steeply sloping island shores. Phyllospadix abundance was positively correlated with P. interruptus abundance; however, at Santa Catalina Island, the Phyllospadix habitat was not extensive enough to be the sole lobster nursery. In laboratory tests, puerulus larvae and early juveniles chose Phyllospadix over rubble rocks or broad-bladed kelp, but did not consistently prefer Phyllospadix over reticulate algae. Ecology, growth, and behavior of juvenile P. interruptus inhabiting a discrete Phyllospadix habitat at Bird Rock, Santa Catalina Island, were investigated from October 1974 through December 1976 by means of frequent scuba surveys. Pueruli settled from June to November. Peak recruitment occurred from July to September, when seasonal temperatures were maximal. Settled larvae were approximately one year old. Juvenile growth was determined by size-frequency, single molt increment, mark-recapture, and laboratory culture studies. Carapace length vs. wet weight relationships fit standard power curve equations. Bird Rock juveniles grew from 7 to 32mm CL in 10-11 molts and from 32 to 56mm CL in 5-6 molts during their first and second benthic years, respectively. Growth rates were similar for males and females. Juveniles regenerating more than two limbs grew less per molt than intact lobsters. Long-term growth of laboratory-reared juveniles was 20% less than that of field lobsters. Growth component multiple regression analyses demonstrated that molt increment was directly proportional to premolt size and temperature for age 1+ lobsters. Molt frequency was inversely proportional to size and directly proportional to temperature. Temperature affected age 2+ lobsters similarly, but molt increment was independent of size, and molt frequency declined at a different rate. Juvenile growth rates more than doubled during warm water months compared to cold water months, primarily because of increased molt frequency. Based on results from this study and from previous investigations, it is estimated that P. interruptus males and females become sexually mature by ages 4 and 5 years, respectively, and that legai size is reached by 7 or 8 years of age. Juvenile P. interruptus activity patterns and foraging behavior were similar to those of adults, except that juvenile home ranges were proportionally smaller, and small juveniles were apparently not attracted to distant food. Small mollusks, abundant in Phyllospadix habitats, were the major food items. Size-dependent predation by fish and octopus apparently caused the considerable juvenile mortality observed at Bird Rock. Juveniles approaching 2 years of age gathered in mixed size-class aggregations by day and foraged beyond the grass beds at night. In autumn, these juveniles migrated to deeper habitats, coincident with new puerulus settlement in the Phyllospadix beds. Based on strong inferences from the results, it is proposed that size-dependent predation is the most important factor determining the !ife history strategy of juvenile P. interruptus. Life history tactics promoting rapid growth apparently function dually in reducing the period of high vulnerability to predation and decreasing the time required to reach sexual maturity. The Phyllospadix habitat is an excellent lobster nursery because it provides shelter from predators and possesses abundant food resources for sustaining optimum juvenile growth rates in shallow, warm water.