The reliability of R50 as a measure of vulnerability of food webs to sequential species deletions

Recent studies predict elevated and accelerating rates of species extinctions over the 21st century, due to climate change and habitat loss. Considering that such primary species loss may initiate cascades of secondary extinctions and push systems towards critical tipping points, we urgently need to increase our understanding of if certain sequences of species extinctions can be expected to be more devastating than others Most theoretical studies addressing this question have used a topological (non-dynamical) approach to analyse the probability that food webs will collapse, below a fixed threshold value in species richness, when subjected to different sequences of species loss. Typically, these studies have neither considered the possibility of dynamical responses of species, nor that conclusions may depend on the value of the collapse threshold. Here we analyse how sensitive conclusions on the importance of different species are to the threshold value of food web collapse. Using dynamical simulations, where we expose model food webs to a range of extinction sequences, we evaluate the reliability of the most frequently used index, R<inf>50</inf>, as a measure of food web robustness. In general, we find that R<inf>50</inf> is a reliable measure and that identification of destructive deletion sequences is fairly robust, within a moderate range of collapse thresholds. At the same time, however, focusing on R<inf>50</inf> only hides a lot of interesting information on the disassembly process and can, in some cases, lead to incorrect conclusions on the relative importance of species in food webs.

Seismic vulnerability and risk assessment of historic masonry buildings

Seismic risk evaluation of built-up areas involves analysis of the level of earthquake hazard of the region, building vulnerability and exposure. Within this approach that defines seismic risk, building vulnerability assessment assumes great importance, not only because of the obvious physical consequences in the eventual occurrence of a seismic event, but also because it is the one of the few potential aspects in which engineering research can intervene. In fact, rigorous vulnerability assessment of existing buildings and the implementation of appropriate retrofitting solutions can help to reduce the levels of physical damage, loss of life and the economic impact of future seismic events. Vulnerability studies of urban centresshould be developed with the aim of identifying building fragilities and reducing seismic risk. As part of the rehabilitation of the historic city centre of Coimbra, a complete identification and inspection survey of old masonry buildings has been carried out. The main purpose of this research is to discuss vulnerability assessment methodologies, particularly those of the first level, through the proposal and development of a method previously used to determine the level of vulnerability, in the assessment of physical damage and its relationship with seismic intensity.

Seismic vulnerability assessment of slender masonry structures

Slender masonry structures are distributed all over the world and constitute a relevant part of the architectural and cultural heritage of humanity. Their protection against earthquakes is a topic of great concern among the scientific community. This concern mainly arises from the strong damage or complete loss suffered by this group of structures due to catastrophic events and the need and interest to preserve them. Although the great progress in technology, and in the knowledge of seismology and earthquake engineering, the preservation of these brittle and massive structures still represents a major challenge. Based on the research developed in this work it is proposed a methodology for the seismic risk assessment of slender masonry structures. The proposed methodology was applied for the vulnerability assessment of Nepalese Pagoda temples which follow very simple construction procedure and construction detailing in relation to seismic resistance requirements. The work is divided in three main parts. Firstly, particular structural fragilities and building characteristics of the important UNESCO classified Nepalese Pagoda temples which affect their seismic performance and dynamic properties are discussed. In the second part the simplified method proposed for seismic vulnerability assessment of slender masonry structures is presented. Finally, the methodology proposed in this work is applied to study Nepalese Pagoda temples, as well as in the efficiency assessment of seismic performance improvement solution compatible with original cultural and technological value.

Application of LOICZ DPSIR framework to South asia Basins and developing typology for coastal vulnerability in South Asia

Dissertação de Mestrado, Gestão da Água e da Costa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2007

The sound of a breaking string: critical environmental law and ontological vulnerability

This is a thought-provoking contribution on the space of ontological vulnerability as the awareness of being existentially exposed. This space, conceptualised as a space of ‘the middle’ (as opposed, emphatically, to ‘the centre’) offers an opportunity to think away from the sterile debate on eco/anthropocentricity and from such limiting hierarchies as animal/human, human/environmental, natural/artificial. This new, vulnerable position of the middle allows the reconfiguration of ecological processes, and more specifically the position of environmental law in relation to them. Environmental law now finds itself amidst a new, moving, ‘open ecology’ of social, biological and ecological processes. This is a new, radical conceptualisation of what the author has called ‘critical environmental law,’ based upon an epistemology of observation and an ontology of being part of this open ecology. Environmental law, in this light, is simultaneously reformulated as an invitation to disciplinary and ontological openness and yet a call to remain immanent within existing legal structures. This finds expression in four critical environmental positions that set the stage for the further elaboration of a critical environmental law.

Delineating environmental groundwater vulnerability and protection zones mapping in fractured rock masses

Hard‐rock watersheds commonly exhibit complex geological bedrock and morphological features. Hydromineral resources have relevant economic value for the thermal spas industry. The present study aims to develop a groundwater vulnerability approach in Caldas da Cavaca hydromineral system (Aguiar da Beira, Central Portugal) which has a thermal tradition that dates back to the late 19th century, and contribute to a better understanding of the hydrogeological conceptual site model. In this work different layers were overlaid, generating several thematic maps to arrive at an integrated framework of several key‐sectors in Caldas da Cavaca site. Thus, to accomplish a comprehensive analysis and conceptualization of the site, a multi‐technical approach was used, such as, field and laboratory techniques, where several data was collected, like geotectonics, hydrology and hydrogeology, hydrogeomorphology, hydrogeophysical and hydrogeomechanical zoning aiming the application of the so‐called DISCO method. All these techniques were successfully performed and a groundwater vulnerability to contamination assessment, based on GOD‐S, DRASTIC‐Fm, SINTACS, SI and DISCO indexes methodology, was delineated. Geographical Information Systems (GIS) technology was on the basis to organise and integrate the geodatabases and to produce all the thematic maps. This multi‐technical approach highlights the importance of groundwater vulnerability to contamination mapping as a tool to support hydrogeological conceptualisation, contributing to better decision‐making of water resources management and sustainability.

Groundwater quality, vulnerability and potential assessment in Kobo Valley development project, Ethiopia

This study deals with investigating the groundwater quality for irrigation purpose, the vulnerability of the aquifer system to pollution and also the aquifer potential for sustainable water resources development in Kobo Valley development project. The groundwater quality is evaluated up on predicting the best possible distribution of hydrogeochemicals using geostatistical method and comparing them with the water quality guidelines given for the purpose of irrigation. The hydro geochemical parameters considered are SAR, EC, TDS, Cl-, Na+, Ca++, SO4 2- and HCO3 -. The spatial variability map reveals that these parameters falls under safe, moderate and severe or increasing problems. In order to present it clearly, the aggregated Water Quality Index (WQI) map is constructed using Weighted Arithmetic Mean method. It is found that Kobo-Gerbi sub basin is suffered from bad water quality for the irrigation purpose. Waja Golesha sub-basin has moderate and Hormat Golena is the better sub basin in terms of water quality. The groundwater vulnerability assessment of the study area is made using the GOD rating system. It is found that the whole area is experiencing moderate to high risk of vulnerability and it is a good warning for proper management of the resource. The high risks of vulnerability are noticed in Hormat Golena and Waja Golesha sub basins. The aquifer potential of the study area is obtained using weighted overlay analysis and 73.3% of the total area is a good site for future water well development. The rest 26.7% of the area is not considered as a good site for spotting groundwater wells. Most of this area fall under Kobo-Gerbi sub basin.

Using life strategies to explore the vulnerability of ecosystem services to invasion by alien plants

Invasive plants can have different effects of ecosystem functioning and on the provision of ecosystem services, from strongly deleterious impacts to positive effects. The nature and intensity of such effects will depend on the service and ecosystem being considered, but also on features of life strategies of invaders that influence their invasiveness as well as their influence of key processes of receiving ecosystems. To address the combined effect of these various factors we developed a robust and efficient methodological framework that allows to identify areas of possible conflict between ecosystem services and alien invasive plants, considering interactions between landscape invasibility and species invasiveness. Our framework combines the statistical robustness of multi-model inference, efficient techniques to map ecosystem services, and life strategies as a functional link between invasion, functional changes and potential provision of services by invaded ecosystems. The framework was applied to a test region in Portugal, for which we could successfully predict the current patterns of plant invasion, of ecosystem service provision, and finally of probable conflict (expressing concern for negative impacts, and value for positive impacts on services) between alien species richness (total and per plant life strategy) and the potential provision of selected services. Potential conflicts were identified for all combinations of plant strategy and ecosystem service, with an emphasis for those concerning conflicts with carbon sequestration, water regulation and wood production. Lower levels of conflict were obtained between invasive plant strategies and the habitat for biodiversity supporting service. The added value of the proposed framework in the context of landscape management and planning is discussed in perspective of anticipation of conflicts, mitigation of negative impacts, and potentiation of positive effects of plant invasions on ecosystems and their services.

Heterogeneity of atherosclerotic plaque phenotypes and composition in four different arterial beds: an intravascular ultrasound virtual histology study

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to compare the plaque morphology between coronary and peripheral arteries using intravascular ultrasound (IVUS). Methods: IVUS was performed in 68 patients with coronary and 93 with peripheral artery lesions (29 carotid, 50 renal, and 14 iliac). Plaques were classified as fibroatheroma (VH-FA) (further subclassified as thin-capped [VH-TCFA] and thick-capped [VH-ThCFA]), fibrocalcific plaque (VH-FC) and pathological intimal thickening (VH-PIT). Results: Plaque rupture (13% of coronary, 7% of carotid, 6% of renal, and 7% of iliac arteries; P=NS) and VH-TCFA (37% of coronary, 24% of carotid, 16% of renal, and 7% of iliac arteries; P=0.02) was observed in all arteries. Compared to coronary arteries, VH-FA was less frequently observed in renal (P<0.001) and iliac arteries (P<0.006), while VH-PIT and VH-FC were prevalent in both of these peripheral arteries. Lesions with positive remodeling demonstrated more characteristics of VH-FA in coronary, carotid, and renal arteries compared to those with intermediate/negative remodeling (all P<0.01). There was positive relationship between RI and percent necrotic core area in all four arteries. Conclusions: Atherosclerotic plaque phenotypes were heterogeneous among four different arteries. In contrast, the associations of remodeling mode with plaque phenotype and composition were similar among the various arterial beds.

Impact of carotid plaque screening on smoking cessation and other cardiovascular risk factors: a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Screening of peripheral atherosclerosis is increasingly used, but few trials have examined its clinical impact. We aimed to assess whether carotid plaque screening helps smokers to improve their health behaviors and cardiovascular risk factors. METHODS: We randomly assigned 536 smokers aged 40 to 70 years to carotid plaque ultrasonographic screening (US group) vs no screening (control group) in addition to individual counseling and nicotine replacement therapy for all participants. Smokers with at least 1 plaque received pictures of their plaques with a 7-minute structured explanation. The outcomes included biochemically validated smoking cessation at 12 months (primary outcome) and changes in cardiovascular risk factor levels and Framingham risk score. RESULTS: At baseline, participants (mean age, 51.1 years; 45.0% women) smoked an average of 20 cigarettes per day with a median duration of 32 years. The US group had a high prevalence of carotid plaques (57.9%). At 12 months, smoking cessation rates were high, but did not differ between the US and control groups (24.9% vs 22.1%; P = .45). In the US group, cessation rates did not differ according to the presence or absence of plaques. Control of cardiovascular risk factors (ie, blood pressure and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and hemoglobin A(1c) levels in diabetic patients) and mean absolute risk change in Framingham risk score did not differ between the groups. The mean absolute risk change in Framingham risk score was +0.6 in the US group vs +0.3 in the control group (P = .56). CONCLUSION: In smokers, carotid plaque screening performed in addition to thorough smoking cessation counseling is not associated with increased rates of smoking cessation or control of cardiovascular risk factors. Trial Registration  clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00548665.

Controversies about the enhanced vulnerability of the adolescent brain to develop addiction.

Adolescence, defined as a transition phase toward autonomy and independence, is a natural time of learning and adjustment, particularly in the setting of long-term goals and personal aspirations. It also is a period of heightened sensation seeking, including risk taking and reckless behaviors, which is a major cause of morbidity and mortality among teenagers. Recent observations suggest that a relative immaturity in frontal cortical neural systems may underlie the adolescent propensity for uninhibited risk taking and hazardous behaviors. However, converging preclinical and clinical studies do not support a simple model of frontal cortical immaturity, and there is substantial evidence that adolescents engage in dangerous activities, including drug abuse, despite knowing and understanding the risks involved. Therefore, a current consensus considers that much brain development during adolescence occurs in brain regions and systems that are critically involved in the perception and evaluation of risk and reward, leading to important changes in social and affective processing. Hence, rather than naive, immature and vulnerable, the adolescent brain, particularly the prefrontal cortex, should be considered as prewired for expecting novel experiences. In this perspective, thrill seeking may not represent a danger but rather a window of opportunities permitting the development of cognitive control through multiple experiences. However, if the maturation of brain systems implicated in self-regulation is contextually dependent, it is important to understand which experiences matter most. In particular, it is essential to unveil the underpinning mechanisms by which recurrent adverse episodes of stress or unrestricted access to drugs can shape the adolescent brain and potentially trigger life-long maladaptive responses.

Effect of biogeographic history on population vulnerability in European amphibians.

The genetic diversity of populations, which contributes greatly to their adaptive potential, is negatively affected by anthropogenic habitat fragmentation and destruction. However, continental-scale losses of genetic diversity also resulted from the population expansions that followed the end of the last glaciation, an element that is rarely considered in a conservation context. We addressed this issue in a meta-analysis in which we compared the spatial patterns of vulnerability of 18 widespread European amphibians in light of phylogeographic histories (glacial refugia and postglacial routes) and anthropogenic disturbances. Conservation statuses significantly worsened with distances from refugia, particularly in the context of industrial agriculture; human population density also had a negative effect. These findings suggest that features associated with the loss of genetic diversity in post-glacial amphibian populations (such as enhanced fixation load or depressed adaptive potential) may increase their susceptibility to current threats (e.g., habitat fragmentation and pesticide use). We propose that the phylogeographic status of populations (i.e., refugial vs. post-glacial) should be considered in conservation assessments for regional and national red lists.