Modeling Seasonal and Weather Impacts on Cycling Count

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

A novel phantom and method for comprehensive 3-dimensional measurement and correction of geometric distortion in magnetic resonance imaging

A phantom that can be used for mapping geometric distortion in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is described. This phantom provides an array of densely distributed control points in three-dimensional (3D) space. These points form the basis of a comprehensive measurement method to correct for geometric distortion in MR images arising principally from gradient field non-linearity and magnet field inhomogeneity. The phantom was designed based on the concept that a point in space can be defined using three orthogonal planes. This novel design approach allows for as many control points as desired. Employing this novel design, a highly accurate method has been developed that enables the positions of the control points to be measured to sub-voxel accuracy. The phantom described in this paper was constructed to fit into a body coil of a MRI scanner, (external dimensions of the phantom were: 310 mm x 310 mm x 310 mm), and it contained 10,830 control points. With this phantom, the mean errors in the measured coordinates of the control points were on the order of 0.1 mm or less, which were less than one tenth of the voxel's dimensions of the phantom image. The calculated three-dimensional distortion map, i.e., the differences between the image positions and true positions of the control points, can then be used to compensate for geometric distortion for a full image restoration. It is anticipated that this novel method will have an impact on the applicability of MRI in both clinical and research settings. especially in areas where geometric accuracy is highly required, such as in MR neuro-imaging. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A probabilistic switch model of information flow in social networks: Application for virtual circuits to organizational design

Network building and exchange of information by people within networks is crucial to the innovation process. Contrary to older models, in social networks the flow of information is noncontinuous and nonlinear. There are critical barriers to information flow that operate in a problematic manner. New models and new analytic tools are needed for these systems. This paper introduces the concept of virtual circuits and draws on recent concepts of network modelling and design to introduce a probabilistic switch theory that can be described using matrices. It can be used to model multistep information flow between people within organisational networks, to provide formal definitions of efficient and balanced networks and to describe distortion of information as it passes along human communication channels. The concept of multi-dimensional information space arises naturally from the use of matrices. The theory and the use of serial diagonal matrices have applications to organisational design and to the modelling of other systems. It is hypothesised that opinion leaders or creative individuals are more likely to emerge at information-rich nodes in networks. A mathematical definition of such nodes is developed and it does not invariably correspond with centrality as defined by early work on networks.

The programming language python in earth system simulations

-scale vary from a planetary scale and million years for convection problems to 100km and 10 years for fault systems simulations. Various techniques are in use to deal with the time dependency (e.g. Crank-Nicholson), with the non-linearity (e.g. Newton-Raphson) and weakly coupled equations (e.g. non-linear Gauss-Seidel). Besides these high-level solution algorithms discretization methods (e.g. finite element method (FEM), boundary element method (BEM)) are used to deal with spatial derivatives. Typically, large-scale, three dimensional meshes are required to resolve geometrical complexity (e.g. in the case of fault systems) or features in the solution (e.g. in mantel convection simulations). The modelling environment escript allows the rapid implementation of new physics as required for the development of simulation codes in earth sciences. Its main object is to provide a programming language, where the user can define new models and rapidly develop high-level solution algorithms. The current implementation is linked with the finite element package finley as a PDE solver. However, the design is open and other discretization technologies such as finite differences and boundary element methods could be included. escript is implemented as an extension of the interactive programming environment python (see www.python.org). Key concepts introduced are Data objects, which are holding values on nodes or elements of the finite element mesh, and linearPDE objects, which are defining linear partial differential equations to be solved by the underlying discretization technology. In this paper we will show the basic concepts of escript and will show how escript is used to implement a simulation code for interacting fault systems. We will show some results of large-scale, parallel simulations on an SGI Altix system. Acknowledgements: Project work is supported by Australian Commonwealth Government through the Australian Computational Earth Systems Simulator Major National Research Facility, Queensland State Government Smart State Research Facility Fund, The University of Queensland and SGI.

A ÉTICA CONTEMPORÂNEA NO DISCURSO DA PUBLICIDADE PARA A MULHER

Esta pesquisa reflete sobre questões da ética contemporânea na publicidade dirigida ao público feminino. A discussão de tais questões debruça sobre a vertente deontológica (convicção). O objetivo do estudo é investigar como os anúncios publicados nas revistas Claudia e Nova articulam questões de tal ética. Assim, buscou-se verificar, por meio da análise de conteúdo, se os anúncios seguiam os princípios contidos no Código Brasileiro de Auto-Regulamentação Publicitária. Em uma segunda etapa, pretendeu-se investigar, por meio da análise de discurso, como se deu a construção dos anúncios sob o enfoque da ética e da mulher na sociedade dos dias de hoje. Concluiu-se que as representações da ética deontológica na publicidade feminina ocorrem de maneira não linear e fragmentada. A não linearidade se refere ao não cumprimento dos princípios éticos por parte de alguns anúncios analisados. Já a fragmentação diz respeito ao modo como a mulher é retratada e como os produtos são divulgados nos anúncios, a partir de diferentes padrões de conduta (princípios) e baseados em valores diversificados. Ora os anúncios apresentam os produtos de maneira verdadeira ou não, ora as mulheres aparecem sob um enfoque baseado em valores contemporâneos ou em valores tradicionais de modo diferenciado.(AU)

Direct femtosecond laser inscription in transparent dielectrics

Since 1996 direct femtosecond inscription in transparent dielectrics has become the subject of intensive research. This enabling technology significantly expands the technological boundaries for direct fabrication of 3D structures in a wide variety of materials. It allows modification of non-photosensitive materials, which opens the door to numerous practical applications. In this work we explored the direct femtosecond inscription of waveguides and demonstrated at least one order of magnitude enhancement in the most critical parameter - the induced contrast of the refractive index in a standard borosilicate optical glass. A record high induced refractive contrast of 2.5×10-2 is demonstrated. The waveguides fabricated possess one of the lowest losses, approaching level of Fresnel reflection losses at the glassair interface. High refractive index contrast allows the fabrication of curvilinear waveguides with low bend losses. We also demonstrated the optimisation of the inscription regimes in BK7 glass over a broad range of experimental parameters and observed a counter-intuitive increase of the induced refractive index contrast with increasing translation speed of a sample. Examples of inscription in a number of transparent dielectrics hosts using high repetition rate fs laser system (both glasses and crystals) are also presented. Sub-wavelength scale periodic inscription inside any material often demands supercritical propagation regimes, when pulse peak power is more than the critical power for selffocusing, sometimes several times higher than the critical power. For a sub-critical regime, when the pulse peak power is less than the critical power for self-focusing, we derive analytic expressions for Gaussian beam focusing in the presence of Kerr non-linearity as well as for a number of other beam shapes commonly used in experiments, including astigmatic and ring-shaped ones. In the part devoted to the fabrication of periodic structures, we report on recent development of our point-by-point method, demonstrating the shortest periodic perturbation created in the bulk of a pure fused silica sample, by using third harmonics (? =267 nm) of fundamental laser frequency (? =800 nm) and 1 kHz femtosecond laser system. To overcome the fundamental limitations of the point-by-point method we suggested and experimentally demonstrated the micro-holographic inscription method, which is based on using the combination of a diffractive optical element and standard micro-objectives. Sub-500 nm periodic structures with a much higher aspect ratio were demonstrated. From the applications point of view, we demonstrate examples of photonics devices by direct femtosecond fabrication method, including various vectorial bend-sensors fabricated in standard optical fibres, as well as a highly birefringent long-period gratings by direct modulation method. To address the intrinsic limitations of femtosecond inscription at very shallow depths we suggested the hybrid mask-less lithography method. The method is based on precision ablation of a thin metal layer deposited on the surface of the sample to create a mask. After that an ion-exchange process in the melt of Ag-containing salts allows quick and low-cost fabrication of shallow waveguides and other components of integrated optics. This approach covers the gap in direct fs inscription of shallow waveguide. Perspectives and future developments of direct femtosecond micro-fabrication are also discussed.

Using monthly returns to model conditional heteroscedasticity

This empirical study examines the extent of non-linearity in a multivariate model of monthly financial series. To capture the conditional heteroscedasticity in the series, both the GARCH(1,1) and GARCH(1,1)-in-mean models are employed. The conditional errors are assumed to follow the normal and Student-t distributions. The non-linearity in the residuals of a standard OLS regression are also assessed. It is found that the OLS residuals as well as conditional errors of the GARCH models exhibit strong non-linearity. Under the Student density, the extent of non-linearity in the GARCH conditional errors was generally similar to those of the standard OLS. The GARCH-in-mean regression generated the worse out-of-sample forecasts.

Approximate Bayesian techniques for inference in stochastic dynamical systems

This thesis is concerned with approximate inference in dynamical systems, from a variational Bayesian perspective. When modelling real world dynamical systems, stochastic differential equations appear as a natural choice, mainly because of their ability to model the noise of the system by adding a variant of some stochastic process to the deterministic dynamics. Hence, inference in such processes has drawn much attention. Here two new extended frameworks are derived and presented that are based on basis function expansions and local polynomial approximations of a recently proposed variational Bayesian algorithm. It is shown that the new extensions converge to the original variational algorithm and can be used for state estimation (smoothing). However, the main focus is on estimating the (hyper-) parameters of these systems (i.e. drift parameters and diffusion coefficients). The new methods are numerically validated on a range of different systems which vary in dimensionality and non-linearity. These are the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, for which the exact likelihood can be computed analytically, the univariate and highly non-linear, stochastic double well and the multivariate chaotic stochastic Lorenz '63 (3-dimensional model). The algorithms are also applied to the 40 dimensional stochastic Lorenz '96 system. In this investigation these new approaches are compared with a variety of other well known methods such as the ensemble Kalman filter / smoother, a hybrid Monte Carlo sampler, the dual unscented Kalman filter (for jointly estimating the systems states and model parameters) and full weak-constraint 4D-Var. Empirical analysis of their asymptotic behaviour as a function of observation density or length of time window increases is provided.

Resistance heating of steel conductors of circular cross-section

The object of this thesis is to develop a method for calculating the losses developed in steel conductors of circular cross-section and at temperatures below 100oC, by the direct passage of a sinusoidally alternating current. Three cases are considered. 1. Isolated solid or tubular conductor. 2. Concentric arrangement of tube and solid return conductor. 3. Concentric arrangement of two tubes. These cases find applications in process temperature maintenance of pipelines, resistance heating of bars and design of bus-bars. The problems associated with the non-linearity of steel are examined. Resistance heating of bars and methods of surface heating of pipelines are briefly described. Magnetic-linear solutions based on Maxwell's equations are critically examined and conditions under which various formulae apply investigated. The conditions under which a tube is electrically equivalent to a solid conductor and to a semi-infinite plate are derived. Existing solutions for the calculation of losses in isolated steel conductors of circular cross-section are reviewed, evaluated and compared. Two methods of solution are developed for the three cases considered. The first is based on the magnetic-linear solutions and offers an alternative to the available methods which are not universal. The second solution extends the existing B/H step-function approximation method to small diameter conductors and to tubes in isolation or in a concentric arrangement. A comprehensive experimental investigation is presented for cases 1 and 2 above which confirms the validity of the proposed methods of solution. These are further supported by experimental results reported in the literature. Good agreement is obtained between measured and calculated loss values for surface field strengths beyond the linear part of the d.c. magnetisation characteristic. It is also shown that there is a difference in the electrical behaviour of a small diameter conductor or thin tube under resistance or induction heating conditions.

Estimating parameters in stochastic systems:a variational Bayesian approach

This work is concerned with approximate inference in dynamical systems, from a variational Bayesian perspective. When modelling real world dynamical systems, stochastic differential equations appear as a natural choice, mainly because of their ability to model the noise of the system by adding a variation of some stochastic process to the deterministic dynamics. Hence, inference in such processes has drawn much attention. Here a new extended framework is derived that is based on a local polynomial approximation of a recently proposed variational Bayesian algorithm. The paper begins by showing that the new extension of this variational algorithm can be used for state estimation (smoothing) and converges to the original algorithm. However, the main focus is on estimating the (hyper-) parameters of these systems (i.e. drift parameters and diffusion coefficients). The new approach is validated on a range of different systems which vary in dimensionality and non-linearity. These are the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, the exact likelihood of which can be computed analytically, the univariate and highly non-linear, stochastic double well and the multivariate chaotic stochastic Lorenz ’63 (3D model). As a special case the algorithm is also applied to the 40 dimensional stochastic Lorenz ’96 system. In our investigation we compare this new approach with a variety of other well known methods, such as the hybrid Monte Carlo, dual unscented Kalman filter, full weak-constraint 4D-Var algorithm and analyse empirically their asymptotic behaviour as a function of observation density or length of time window increases. In particular we show that we are able to estimate parameters in both the drift (deterministic) and the diffusion (stochastic) part of the model evolution equations using our new methods.

Short-term electricity demand and gas price forecasts using wavelet transforms and adaptive models

This paper presents some forecasting techniques for energy demand and price prediction, one day ahead. These techniques combine wavelet transform (WT) with fixed and adaptive machine learning/time series models (multi-layer perceptron (MLP), radial basis functions, linear regression, or GARCH). To create an adaptive model, we use an extended Kalman filter or particle filter to update the parameters continuously on the test set. The adaptive GARCH model is a new contribution, broadening the applicability of GARCH methods. We empirically compared two approaches of combining the WT with prediction models: multicomponent forecasts and direct forecasts. These techniques are applied to large sets of real data (both stationary and non-stationary) from the UK energy markets, so as to provide comparative results that are statistically stronger than those previously reported. The results showed that the forecasting accuracy is significantly improved by using the WT and adaptive models. The best models on the electricity demand/gas price forecast are the adaptive MLP/GARCH with the multicomponent forecast; their MSEs are 0.02314 and 0.15384 respectively.

Computer simulation of form-roll design

Changes in modern structural design have created a demand for products which are light but possess high strength. The objective is a reduction in fuel consumption and weight of materials to satisfy both economic and environmental criteria. Cold roll forming has the potential to fulfil this requirement. The bending process is controlled by the shape of the profile machined on the periphery of the rolls. A CNC lathe can machine complicated profiles to a high standard of precision, but the expertise of a numerical control programmer is required. A computer program was developed during this project, using the expert system concept, to calculate tool paths and consequently to expedite the procurement of the machine control tapes whilst removing the need for a skilled programmer. Codifying the expertise of a human and the encapsulation of knowledge within a computer memory, destroys the dependency on highly trained people whose services can be costly, inconsistent and unreliable. A successful cold roll forming operation, where the product is geometrically correct and free from visual defects, is not easy to attain. The geometry of the sheet after travelling through the rolling mill depends on the residual strains generated by the elastic-plastic deformation. Accurate evaluation of the residual strains can provide the basis for predicting the geometry of the section. A study of geometric and material non-linearity, yield criteria, material hardening and stress-strain relationships was undertaken in this research project. The finite element method was chosen to provide a mathematical model of the bending process and, to ensure an efficient manipulation of the large stiffness matrices, the frontal solution was applied. A series of experimental investigations provided data to compare with corresponding values obtained from the theoretical modelling. A computer simulation, capable of predicting that a design will be satisfactory prior to the manufacture of the rolls, would allow effort to be concentrated into devising an optimum design where costs are minimised.

Ultra-long mode-locked Er-droped fibre lasers

The development of ultra-long (UL) cavity (hundreds of meters to several kilometres) mode-locked fibre lasers for the generation of high-energy light pulses with relatively low (sub-megahertz) repetition rates has emerged as a new rapidly advancing area of laser physics. The first demonstration of high pulse energy laser of this type was followed by a number of publications from many research groups on long-cavity Ytterbium and Erbium lasers featuring a variety of configurations with rather different mode-locked operations. The substantial interest to this new approach is stimulated both by non-trivial underlying physics and by the potential of high pulse energy laser sources with unique parameters for a range of applications in industry, bio-medicine, metrology and telecommunications. It is well known, that pulse generation regimes in mode-locked fibre lasers are determined by the intra-cavity balance between the effects of dispersion and non-linearity, and the processes of energy attenuation and amplification. The highest per-pulse energy has been achieved in normal-dispersion UL fibre lasers mode-locked through nonlinear polarization evolution (NPE) for self-modelocking operation. In such lasers are generated the so-called dissipative optical solitons. The uncompensated net normal dispersion in long-cavity resonatorsusually leads to very high chirp and, consequently, to a relatively long duration of generated pulses. This thesis presents the results of research Er-doped ultra-long (more than 1 km cavity length) fibre lasers mode-locked based on NPE. The self-mode-locked erbium-based 3.5-km-long all-fiber laser with the 1.7 µJ pulse energy at a wavelength of 1.55 µm was developed as a part of this research. It has resulted in direct generation of short laser pulses with an ultralow repetition rate of 35.1 kHz. The laser cavity has net normal-dispersion and has been fabricated from commercially-available telecom fibers and optical-fiber elements. Its unconventional linear-ring design with compensation for polarization instability ensures high reliability of the self-mode-locking operation, despite the use of a non polarization-maintaining fibers. The single pulse generation regime in all-fibre erbium mode-locking laser based on NPE with a record cavity length of 25 km was demonstrated. Modelocked lasers with such a long cavity have never been studied before. Our result shows a feasibility of stable mode-locked operation even for an ultra-long cavity length. A new design of fibre laser cavity – “y-configuration”, that offers a range of new functionalities for optimization and stabilization of mode-locked lasing regimes was proposed. This novel cavity configuration has been successfully implemented into a long-cavity normal-dispersion self-mode-locked Er-fibre laser. In particular, it features compensation for polarization instability, suppression of ASE, reduction of pulse duration, prevention of in-cavity wave breaking, and stabilization of the lasing wavelength. This laser along with a specially designed double-pass EDFA have allowed us to demonstrate anenvironmentally stable all-fibre laser system able to deliver sub-nanosecond high-energy pulses with low level of ASE noise.

A Stochastic Approach for Investigation Ultrafast Phenomena in Semiconductors

2002 Mathematics Subject Classification: 65C05

Fibonacci Series, Golden Proportions, and the Human Biology

Pythagoras, Plato and Euclid’s paved the way for Classical Geometry. The idea of shapes that can be mathematically defined by equations led to the creation of great structures of modern and ancient civilizations, and milestones in mathematics and science. However, classical geometry fails to explain the complexity of non-linear shapes replete in nature such as the curvature of a flower or the wings of a Butterfly. Such non-linearity can be explained by fractal geometry which creates shapes that emulate those found in nature with remarkable accuracy. Such phenomenon begs the question of architectural origin for biological existence within the universe. While the concept of a unifying equation of life has yet to be discovered, the Fibonacci sequence may establish an origin for such a development. The observation of the Fibonacci sequence is existent in almost all aspects of life ranging from the leaves of a fern tree, architecture, and even paintings, makes it highly unlikely to be a stochastic phenomenon. Despite its wide-spread occurrence and existence, the Fibonacci series and the Rule of Golden Proportions has not been widely documented in the human body. This paper serves to review the observed documentation of the Fibonacci sequence in the human body.