The Probe, Issue 190 – July 1998

Research, Cooperation Pays Off for Fish Farmers -- Peter Butchko, District Supervisor, USDA-APHIS-WS, Mississippi and NADCA Vice-President, East Thoughts... Robert H. Giles, Jr., President, NADCA Book Review : The Wildlife Damage Inspection Handbook, by Stephen Vantassel with Tom Olander; Reviewed by Rex E. Marsh British Fox Hunting Ban Fails Passage Recent Coyote Research From Texas: Diets of Coyotes (Canis latrans) in the Edwards Plateau and Trans-Pecos regions of Texas, by J. Harris Glass, S.K. Canon, and D. Rollins Long-time NADCA Member Robert H. Schmidt Featured in Associated Press Article on Nuisance Animal Control Industry Research Continues in New Zealand and Australia on the Efficacy of Rabbit Calicivirus Disease as Rabbit Population Control Method Latest Rabies Trends Subject of Meeting of State and National Health Experts: Keeping Physicians and the Public Informed on Managing Deadly Disease Bogus Gizmos and Gadgets No Help With Homeowners' Wildlife Problems

OPENING REMARKS - THIRD VERTEBRATE PEST CONFERENCE

To open this Third Vertebrate Pest Conference is a real privilege. It is a pleasure to welcome all of you in attendance, and I know there are others who would like to be meeting with us, but, for one reason or another cannot be. However, we can serve them by taking back the results of discussion and by making available the printed transactions of what is said here. It has been the interest and demand for the proceedings of the two previous conferen- ces which, along with personal contacts many of you have with the sponsoring committee, have gauged the need for continuing these meetings. The National Pest Control Association officers who printed the 1962 proceedings still are supplying copies of that conference. Two reprintings of the 1964 conference have been necessary and repeat orders from several universities indicate that those proceedings have become textbooks for special classes. When Dr. Howard mentioned in opening the first Conference in 1962 that publication of those papers would make a valuable handbook of animal control, he was prophetic, indeed. We are pleased that this has happened, but not surprised, since to many of us in this specialized field, the conferences have provided a unique opportunity to meet colleagues with similar interests, to exchange information on control techniques and to be informed by research workers of problem solving investigations as well as to hear of promising basic research. The development of research is a two-way street and we think these conferences also identify areas of inadequate knowledge, thereby stimulating needed research. We have represented here a number of types of specialists—animal ecologists, public health and transmissible disease experts, control methods specialists, public agency administration and enforcement staffs, agricultural extension people, manufacturing and sale industry representatives, commercial pest control operators, and others—and in addition to improving communications among these professional groups an equally important purpose of these conferences is to improve understanding between them and the general public. Within the term general public are many individuals and also organizations dedicated to appreciation and protection of certain animal forms or animal life in general. Proper concepts of vertebrate pest control do not conflict with such views. It is worth repeating for the record the definition of "vertebrate pest" which has been stated at our previous conferences. "A vertebrate pest is any native or introduced, wild or feral, non-human spe- cies of vertebrate animal that is currently troublesome locally or over a wide area to one or more persons either by being a general nuisance, a health hazard or by destroying food or natural resources. In other words, vertebrate pest status is not an inherent quality or fixed classification but is a circumstantial relationship to man's interests." I believe progress has been made in reducing the misunderstanding and emotion with which vertebrate pest control was formerly treated whenever a necessity for control was stated. If this is true, I likewise believe it is deserved, because control methods and programs have progressed. Control no longer refers only to population reductions by lethal means. We have learned something of alternate control approaches and the necessity for studying the total environment; where reduction of pest animal numbers is the required solution to a problem situation we have a wider choice of more selective, safe and efficient materials. Although increased attention has been given to control methods, research when we take a close look at the severity of animal damage to so many facets of our economy, particularly to agricultural production and public health, we realize it still is pitifully small and slow. The tremendous acceleration of the world's food and health requirements seems to demand expediting vertebrate pest control to effectively neutralize the enormous impact of animal damage to vital resources. The efforts we are making here at problem delineation, idea communication and exchange of methodology could well serve as both nucleus and rough model for a broader application elsewhere. I know we all hope this Third Conference will advance these general objectives, and I think there is no doubt of its value in increasing our own scope of information.

Integrative Musterbildung kranialer Strukturen

Form und Gestalt kraniofazialer Strukturen sind primär beeinflusst durch die inhärente Integration der unterschiedlichsten Funktionssysteme und externer selektiver Einflüsse. Die Variabilität der Schädel-Morphe ist ein Indikator für solche Einflussfaktoren und damit ein idealer Gegenstand für vergleichende Analysen morphogenetischer Formbildung. Zur Ermittlung morphologisch-adaptiver Trends und Muster wurden sowohl Hypothesen zur morphologischen Differenziertheit als auch zu Korrelationen zwischen modularen Schädelkompartimenten (fazial, neurokranial, basikranial) untersucht. Zusätzlich wurden aus Schichtröntgenaufnahmen (CT) virtuelle Modelle rekonstruiert, welche die Interpretation der statistischen Befunde unterstützen sollten. Zur Berechnung der Gestaltunterschiede wurden mittels eines mechanischen Gelenkarm-Messgerätes (MicroScribe-G2) max. 85 ektokraniale Messpunkte (Landmarks) bzw. dreidimensionale Koordinaten an ca. 520 Schädeln von fünf rezenten Gattungen der Überfamilie Hominoidea (Hylobates, Pongo, Gorilla, Pan und Homo) akquiriert. Aus dem Datensatz wurden geometrische Störfaktoren (Größe, Translation, Rotation) mathematisch eliminiert und die verbleibenden Residuale bzw. ‚Gestalt-Variablen‘ diversen multivariat-statistischen Verfahren unterzogen (Faktoren, Cluster-, Regressions- und Korrelationsanalysen sowie statistische Tests). Die angewandten Methoden erhalten die geometrische Information der Untersuchungsobjekte über alle Analyseschritte hinweg und werden unter der Bezeichnung „Geometric Morphometrics (GMM)“ als aktueller Ansatz der Morphometrie zusammengefasst. Für die unterschiedlichen Fragestellungen wurden spezifische Datensätze generiert. Es konnten diverse morphologische Trends und adaptive Muster mit Hilfe der Synthese statistischer Methoden und computer-basierter Rekonstruktionen aus den generierten Datensätzen ermittelt werden. Außerdem war es möglich, präzise zu rekonstruieren, welche kranialen Strukturen innerhalb der Stichprobe miteinander wechselwirken, einzigartige Variabilitäten repräsentieren oder eher homogen gestaltet sind. Die vorliegenden Befunde lassen erkennen, dass Fazial- und Neurokranium am stärksten miteinander korrelieren, während das Basikranium geringe Abhängigkeiten in Bezug auf Gesichts- oder Hirnschädelveränderungen zeigte. Das Basikranium erweist sich zudem bei den nicht-menschlichen Hominoidea und über alle Analysen hinweg als konservative und evolutiv-persistente Struktur mit dem geringsten Veränderungs-Potential. Juvenile Individuen zeigen eine hohe Affinität zueinander und zu Formen mit einem kleinem Gesichts- und großem Hirnschädel. Während das Kranium des rezenten Menschen primär von Enkephalisation und fazialer Retraktion (Orthognathisierung) dominiert ist und somit eine einzigartige Gestalt aufweist, zeigt sich der Kauapparat als maßgeblich formbildendes Kompartiment bei den nicht-menschlichen Formen. Die Verbindung von GMM mit den interaktiven Möglichkeiten computergenerierter Modelle erwies sich als valides Werkzeug zur Erfassung der aufgeworfenen Fragestellungen. Die Interpretation der Befunde ist durch massive Interkorrelationen der untersuchten Strukturen und der statistisch-mathematischen Prozeduren als hoch komplex zu kennzeichnen. Die Studie präsentiert einen innovativen Ansatz der modernen Morphometrie, welcher für zukünftige Untersuchungen im Bereich der kraniofazialen Gestaltanalyse ausgebaut werden könnte. Dabei verspricht die Verknüpfung mit ‚klassischen’ und modernen Zugängen (z. B. Molekularbiologie) gesteigerte Erkenntnismöglichkeiten für künftige morphometrische Fragestellungen.

Comportement thermique des géopolymères obtenus à partir d'une argile kaolinite

The aim of this work is to study the thermal behavior of geopolymers derived from kaolinite (clay). The geopolymers were characterized by various technics: Thermal analysis (DTA, TGA and dilatometer), X-ray diffractography (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). Certain physical properties of the products were equally determined: linear shrinkage of curing, percentage of water absorption and compressive strength. The results obtained after drying and thermal treatment showed that the products preserved their initial forms, but showed variable colours based on the temperatures they were treated at. The products obtained at 90, 300 and 500 °C contained hydroxysodalite. The synthesis of geopolymers is not complete at 300 °C (presence of kaolinite in the material) but the products obtained are quite consolidated. The geopolymers obtained have weak values of linear shrinkage of curing (less than 0.6 %) and the compressive strength increases from room temperature (4.9 Mpa) up to 400 °C (8.9 MPa) then becomes constant between 400 and 500 °C. The combination of results demonstrates the efficiency of the temperature parameter during the synthesis of geopolymers based on kaolinite. // L’objet de ce travail est l’étude du comportement thermique des géopolymères à base d’une argile kaolinite. Les produits obtenus ont été caractérisés au moyen de plusieurs techniques : analyses thermiques (ATD, ATG et dilatométrie), microscopie électronique à balayage (MEB), analyse par diffraction de rayons X (DRX), analyse infrarouge par transformée de Fourier (IRTF). Certaines propriétés physiques des produits obtenus ont également été déterminées : retrait linéaire de cuisson, pourcentage d’absorption d’eau et résistance à la compression. Les résultats obtenus montrent qu’après le séchage et à la fin du traitement thermique, les éprouvettes des produits conservent leur forme initiale mais présentent une variation de couleur en fonction de la température de traitement. Les produits obtenus à 90, 300 et 500 °C contiennent de l’hydroxysodalite. La réaction de synthèse géopolymère n’est pas encore terminée au moins à 300 °C (présence de kaolinite dans le matériau) mais les produits obtenus sont assez consolidés. Les géopolymères obtenus présentent de faibles valeurs de retrait linéaire de cuisson (inférieure à 0,6 %) et une résistance à la compression qui augmente de la température ambiante (4,9 MPa) jusqu’à 400 °C (8,9 MPa) puis devient constante entre 400 et 500 °C. L’ensemble de ces résultats permet de mettre en exergue l’efficacité du paramètre « température » au cours de la synthèse des géopolymères à base de kaolinite.

A Cox Model for Biostatistics of the Future

Professor Sir David R. Cox (DRC) is widely acknowledged as among the most important scientists of the second half of the twentieth century. He inherited the mantle of statistical science from Pearson and Fisher, advanced their ideas, and translated statistical theory into practice so as to forever change the application of statistics in many fields, but especially biology and medicine. The logistic and proportional hazards models he substantially developed, are arguably among the most influential biostatistical methods in current practice. This paper looks forward over the period from DRC's 80th to 90th birthdays, to speculate about the future of biostatistics, drawing lessons from DRC's contributions along the way. We consider "Cox's model" of biostatistics, an approach to statistical science that: formulates scientific questions or quantities in terms of parameters gamma in probability models f(y; gamma) that represent in a parsimonious fashion, the underlying scientific mechanisms (Cox, 1997); partition the parameters gamma = theta, eta into a subset of interest theta and other "nuisance parameters" eta necessary to complete the probability distribution (Cox and Hinkley, 1974); develops methods of inference about the scientific quantities that depend as little as possible upon the nuisance parameters (Barndorff-Nielsen and Cox, 1989); and thinks critically about the appropriate conditional distribution on which to base infrences. We briefly review exciting biomedical and public health challenges that are capable of driving statistical developments in the next decade. We discuss the statistical models and model-based inferences central to the CM approach, contrasting them with computationally-intensive strategies for prediction and inference advocated by Breiman and others (e.g. Breiman, 2001) and to more traditional design-based methods of inference (Fisher, 1935). We discuss the hierarchical (multi-level) model as an example of the future challanges and opportunities for model-based inference. We then consider the role of conditional inference, a second key element of the CM. Recent examples from genetics are used to illustrate these ideas. Finally, the paper examines causal inference and statistical computing, two other topics we believe will be central to biostatistics research and practice in the coming decade. Throughout the paper, we attempt to indicate how DRC's work and the "Cox Model" have set a standard of excellence to which all can aspire in the future.

Robust Inferences For Covariate Effects On Survival Time With Censored Linear Regression Models

Various inference procedures for linear regression models with censored failure times have been studied extensively. Recent developments on efficient algorithms to implement these procedures enhance the practical usage of such models in survival analysis. In this article, we present robust inferences for certain covariate effects on the failure time in the presence of "nuisance" confounders under a semiparametric, partial linear regression setting. Specifically, the estimation procedures for the regression coefficients of interest are derived from a working linear model and are valid even when the function of the confounders in the model is not correctly specified. The new proposals are illustrated with two examples and their validity for cases with practical sample sizes is demonstrated via a simulation study.

Semiparametric Estimation in General Repeated Measures Problems

This paper considers a wide class of semiparametric problems with a parametric part for some covariate effects and repeated evaluations of a nonparametric function. Special cases in our approach include marginal models for longitudinal/clustered data, conditional logistic regression for matched case-control studies, multivariate measurement error models, generalized linear mixed models with a semiparametric component, and many others. We propose profile-kernel and backfitting estimation methods for these problems, derive their asymptotic distributions, and show that in likelihood problems the methods are semiparametric efficient. While generally not true, with our methods profiling and backfitting are asymptotically equivalent. We also consider pseudolikelihood methods where some nuisance parameters are estimated from a different algorithm. The proposed methods are evaluated using simulation studies and applied to the Kenya hemoglobin data.

Semiparametric Normal Transformation Models for Spatially Correlated Survival Data

There is an emerging interest in modeling spatially correlated survival data in biomedical and epidemiological studies. In this paper, we propose a new class of semiparametric normal transformation models for right censored spatially correlated survival data. This class of models assumes that survival outcomes marginally follow a Cox proportional hazard model with unspecified baseline hazard, and their joint distribution is obtained by transforming survival outcomes to normal random variables, whose joint distribution is assumed to be multivariate normal with a spatial correlation structure. A key feature of the class of semiparametric normal transformation models is that it provides a rich class of spatial survival models where regression coefficients have population average interpretation and the spatial dependence of survival times is conveniently modeled using the transformed variables by flexible normal random fields. We study the relationship of the spatial correlation structure of the transformed normal variables and the dependence measures of the original survival times. Direct nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation in such models is practically prohibited due to the high dimensional intractable integration of the likelihood function and the infinite dimensional nuisance baseline hazard parameter. We hence develop a class of spatial semiparametric estimating equations, which conveniently estimate the population-level regression coefficients and the dependence parameters simultaneously. We study the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators, and show that they are consistent and asymptotically normal. The proposed method is illustrated with an analysis of data from the East Boston Ashma Study and its performance is evaluated using simulations.

Analyzing Panel Count Data with Informative Observation Times

In this paper, we study panel count data with informative observation times. We assume nonparametric and semiparametric proportional rate models for the underlying recurrent event process, where the form of the baseline rate function is left unspecified and a subject-specific frailty variable inflates or deflates the rate function multiplicatively. The proposed models allow the recurrent event processes and observation times to be correlated through their connections with the unobserved frailty; moreover, the distributions of both the frailty variable and observation times are considered as nuisance parameters. The baseline rate function and the regression parameters are estimated by maximizing a conditional likelihood function of observed event counts and solving estimation equations. Large sample properties of the proposed estimators are studied. Numerical studies demonstrate that the proposed estimation procedures perform well for moderate sample sizes. An application to a bladder tumor study is presented to illustrate the use of the proposed methods.

Reduced Bayesian Hierarchical Models: Estimating Health Effects of Simultaneous Exposure to Multiple Pollutants

Quantifying the health effects associated with simultaneous exposure to many air pollutants is now a research priority of the US EPA. Bayesian hierarchical models (BHM) have been extensively used in multisite time series studies of air pollution and health to estimate health effects of a single pollutant adjusted for potential confounding of other pollutants and other time-varying factors. However, when the scientific goal is to estimate the impacts of many pollutants jointly, a straightforward application of BHM is challenged by the need to specify a random-effect distribution on a high-dimensional vector of nuisance parameters, which often do not have an easy interpretation. In this paper we introduce a new BHM formulation, which we call "reduced BHM", aimed at analyzing clustered data sets in the presence of a large number of random effects that are not of primary scientific interest. At the first stage of the reduced BHM, we calculate the integrated likelihood of the parameter of interest (e.g. excess number of deaths attributed to simultaneous exposure to high levels of many pollutants). At the second stage, we specify a flexible random-effect distribution directly on the parameter of interest. The reduced BHM overcomes many of the challenges in the specification and implementation of full BHM in the context of a large number of nuisance parameters. In simulation studies we show that the reduced BHM performs comparably to the full BHM in many scenarios, and even performs better in some cases. Methods are applied to estimate location-specific and overall relative risks of cardiovascular hospital admissions associated with simultaneous exposure to elevated levels of particulate matter and ozone in 51 US counties during the period 1999-2005.

Thermal neutron capture effects in radioactive and stable nuclide systems

Neutron capture effects in meteorites and lunar surface samples have been successfully used in the past to study exposure histories and shielding conditions. In recent years, however, it turned out that neutron capture effects produce a nuisance for some of the short-lived radionuclide systems. The most prominent example is the 182Hf-182W system in iron meteorites, for which neutron capture effects lower the 182W/184W ratio, thereby producing too old apparent ages. Here, we present a thorough study of neutron capture effects in iron meteorites, ordinary chondrites, and carbonaceous chondrites, whereas the focus is on iron meteorites. We study in detail the effects responsible for neutron production, neutron transport, and neutron slowing down and find that neutron capture in all studied meteorite types is not, as usually expected, exclusively via thermal neutrons. In contrast, most of the neutron capture in iron meteorites is in the epithermal energy range and there is a significant contribution from epithermal neutron capture even in stony meteorites. Using sophisticated particle spectra and evaluated cross section data files for neutron capture reactions we calculate the neutron capture effects for Sm, Gd, Cd, Pd, Pt, and Os isotopes, which all can serve as neutron-dose proxies, either in stony or in iron meteorites. In addition, we model neutron capture effects in W and Ag isotopes. For W isotopes, the GCR-induced shifts perfectly correlate with Os and Pt isotope shifts, which therefore can be used as neutron-dose proxies and permit a reliable correction. We also found that GCR-induced effects for the 107Pd-107Ag system can be significant and need to be corrected, a result that is in contrast to earlier studies.

A Word. Palaver and Its Transferal Residues

The word 'palaver' is colloquially associated with useless verbiage and the nuisance of a tediously long, aimless and superfluous debate. At the same time, it insinuates an uncivilized culture of discourse beyond reason. Thus it appears to be of vaguely exotic origin but still firmly set in the European lexicon. Yet behind this contemporary meaning there lies a long history of linguistic and cultural transfers which is encased in a context of different usages of language and their intersections. By tracing the usage and semantics of 'palaver' in various encyclopaedias, glossaries and dictionaries of English, French, German, Portuguese and Spanish, the following article explores the rich history of this word. Moreover, it also regards the travelling semantics of the term 'palaver' as a process of cultural transfer that can be likened to the microcellular workings of a (retro)virus. Viral reproduction and evolution work through processes of transfer that enable the alteration of the host to adjust it to the replication and reproduction of the virus. In some cases, these processes also allow for the mutation or modification of the virus, making it suitable for transfer from one host to another. The virus is thus offered here as a vital model for cultural transfer: It not only encompasses the necessary adoption and adaption of contents or objects of cultural transfer in different contexts. It contributes to a conceptual understanding of the transferal residue that the transferred content is endowed with by its diversifying contexts. This model thereby surpasses an understanding of cultural transfer as literal translation or transmission: it conceptualizes cultural transfer as an agent of evolutionary processes, allowing for mutational effects of transfer as endowment.

Optimal Test for Parameter Instability When the Unstable Process and the Error Distribution are Unknown

This paper proposes asymptotically optimal tests for unstable parameter process under the feasible circumstance that the researcher has little information about the unstable parameter process and the error distribution, and suggests conditions under which the knowledge of those processes does not provide asymptotic power gains. I first derive a test under known error distribution, which is asymptotically equivalent to LR tests for correctly identified unstable parameter processes under suitable conditions. The conditions are weak enough to cover a wide range of unstable processes such as various types of structural breaks and time varying parameter processes. The test is then extended to semiparametric models in which the underlying distribution in unknown but treated as unknown infinite dimensional nuisance parameter. The semiparametric test is adaptive in the sense that its asymptotic power function is equivalent to the power envelope under known error distribution.