Nonlinear data assimilation in geosciences: an extremely efficient particle filter

Almost all research fields in geosciences use numerical models and observations and combine these using data-assimilation techniques. With ever-increasing resolution and complexity, the numerical models tend to be highly nonlinear and also observations become more complicated and their relation to the models more nonlinear. Standard data-assimilation techniques like (ensemble) Kalman filters and variational methods like 4D-Var rely on linearizations and are likely to fail in one way or another. Nonlinear data-assimilation techniques are available, but are only efficient for small-dimensional problems, hampered by the so-called ‘curse of dimensionality’. Here we present a fully nonlinear particle filter that can be applied to higher dimensional problems by exploiting the freedom of the proposal density inherent in particle filtering. The method is illustrated for the three-dimensional Lorenz model using three particles and the much more complex 40-dimensional Lorenz model using 20 particles. By also applying the method to the 1000-dimensional Lorenz model, again using only 20 particles, we demonstrate the strong scale-invariance of the method, leading to the optimistic conjecture that the method is applicable to realistic geophysical problems. Copyright c 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

State estimation using model order reduction for unstable systems

The problem of state estimation occurs in many applications of fluid flow. For example, to produce a reliable weather forecast it is essential to find the best possible estimate of the true state of the atmosphere. To find this best estimate a nonlinear least squares problem has to be solved subject to dynamical system constraints. Usually this is solved iteratively by an approximate Gauss–Newton method where the underlying discrete linear system is in general unstable. In this paper we propose a new method for deriving low order approximations to the problem based on a recently developed model reduction method for unstable systems. To illustrate the theoretical results, numerical experiments are performed using a two-dimensional Eady model – a simple model of baroclinic instability, which is the dominant mechanism for the growth of storms at mid-latitudes. It is a suitable test model to show the benefit that may be obtained by using model reduction techniques to approximate unstable systems within the state estimation problem.

Dimensional reduction of a binary Bose-Einstein condensate in mixed dimensions

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Effective nonlinear Schrodinger equations for cigar-shaped and disc-shaped Fermi superfluids at unitarity

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

REDUCTION OF TODA LATTICE HIERARCHY TO GENERALIZED KDV HIERARCHIES AND THE 2-MATRIX MODEL

Toda lattice hierarchy and the associated matrix formulation of the 2M-boson KP hierarchies provide a framework for the Drinfeld-Sokolov reduction scheme realized through Hamiltonian action within the second KP Poisson bracket. By working with free currents, which Abelianize the second KP Hamiltonian structure, we are able to obtain a unified formalism for the reduced SL(M + 1, M - k) KdV hierarchies interpolating between the ordinary KP and KdV hierarchies. The corresponding Lax operators are given as superdeterminants of graded SL(M + 1, M - k) matrices in the diagonal gauge and we describe their bracket structure and field content. In particular, we provide explicit free field representations of the associated W(M, M - k) Poisson bracket algebras generalising the familiar nonlinear W-M+1 algebra. Discrete Backlund transformations for SL(M + 1, M - k) KdV are generated naturally from lattice translations in the underlying Toda-like hierarchy. As an application we demonstrate the equivalence of the two-matrix string model to the SL(M + 1, 1) KdV hierarchy.

Stability of nonlinear system using takagi-sugeno fuzzy models and hyper-rectangle of LMIs

This paper presents a theorem based on the hyper-rectangle defined by the closed set of the time derivatives of the membership functions of Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy systems. This result is also based on Linear Matrix Inequalities and allows the reduction of the conservatism of the stability analysis in the sense of Lyapunov. The theorem generalizes previous results available in the literature. © 2013 Brazilian Society for Automatics - SBA.

Effect of Pursed-Lip Breathing in Patients With COPD: Linear and Nonlinear Analysis of Cardiac Autonomic Modulation

Objective: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the effect of pursed-lip breathing (PLB) on cardiac autonomic modulation in individuals with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) while at rest. Methods: Thirty-two individuals were allocated to one of two groups: COPD (n = 17; 67.29 +/- 6.87 years of age) and control (n = 15; 63.2 +/- 7.96 years of age). The groups were submitted to a two-stage experimental protocol. The first stage consisted of the characterization of the sample and spirometry. The second stage comprised the analysis of cardiac autonomic modulation through the recording of R-R intervals. This analysis was performed using both nonlinear and linear heart rate variability (HRV). In the statistical analysis, the level of significance was set to 5% (p = 0.05). Results: PLB promoted significant increases in the SD1, SD2, RMSSD and LF (ms(2)) indices as well as an increase in alpha(1) and a reduction in alpha(2) in the COPD group. A greater dispersion of points on the Poincare plots was also observed. The magnitude of the changes produced by PLB differed between groups. Conclusion: PLB led to a loss of fractal correlation properties of heart rate in the direction of linearity in patients with COPD as well as an increase in vagal activity and impact on the spectral analysis. The difference in the magnitude of the changes produced by PLB between groups may be related to the presence of the disease and alterations in the respiration rate.

On the mKdV-Liouville hierarchy and its self-similarity reduction

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Nonlinear/electromagnetic co-simulation of microwaves and millimeter-waves links

The Ph.D. thesis describes the simulations of different microwave links from the transmitter to the receiver intermediate-frequency ports, by means of a rigorous circuit-level nonlinear analysis approach coupled with the electromagnetic characterization of the transmitter and receiver front ends. This includes a full electromagnetic computation of the radiated far field which is used to establish the connection between transmitter and receiver. Digitally modulated radio-frequency drive is treated by a modulation-oriented harmonic-balance method based on Krylov-subspace model-order reduction to allow the handling of large-size front ends. Different examples of links have been presented: an End-to-End link simulated by making use of an artificial neural network model; the latter allows a fast computation of the link itself when driven by long sequences of the order of millions of samples. In this way a meaningful evaluation of such link performance aspects as the bit error rate becomes possible at the circuit level. Subsequently, a work focused on the co-simulation an entire link including a realistic simulation of the radio channel has been presented. The channel has been characterized by means of a deterministic approach, such as Ray Tracing technique. Then, a 2x2 multiple-input multiple-output antenna link has been simulated; in this work near-field and far-field coupling between radiating elements, as well as the environment factors, has been rigorously taken into account. Finally, within the scope to simulate an entire ultra-wideband link, the transmitting side of an ultrawideband link has been designed, and an interesting Front-End co-design technique application has been setup.

Model reduction techniques in flexible multibody dynamics with application to engine cranktrain simulation

The development of a multibody model of a motorbike engine cranktrain is presented in this work, with an emphasis on flexible component model reduction. A modelling methodology based upon the adoption of non-ideal joints at interface locations, and the inclusion of component flexibility, is developed: both are necessary tasks if one wants to capture dynamic effects which arise in lightweight, high-speed applications. With regard to the first topic, both a ball bearing model and a journal bearing model are implemented, in order to properly capture the dynamic effects of the main connections in the system: angular contact ball bearings are modelled according to a five-DOF nonlinear scheme in order to grasp the crankshaft main bearings behaviour, while an impedance-based hydrodynamic bearing model is implemented providing an enhanced operation prediction at the conrod big end locations. Concerning the second matter, flexible models of the crankshaft and the connecting rod are produced. The well-established Craig-Bampton reduction technique is adopted as a general framework to obtain reduced model representations which are suitable for the subsequent multibody analyses. A particular component mode selection procedure is implemented, based on the concept of Effective Interface Mass, allowing an assessment of the accuracy of the reduced models prior to the nonlinear simulation phase. In addition, a procedure to alleviate the effects of modal truncation, based on the Modal Truncation Augmentation approach, is developed. In order to assess the performances of the proposed modal reduction schemes, numerical tests are performed onto the crankshaft and the conrod models in both frequency and modal domains. A multibody model of the cranktrain is eventually assembled and simulated using a commercial software. Numerical results are presented, demonstrating the effectiveness of the implemented flexible model reduction techniques. The advantages over the conventional frequency-based truncation approach are discussed.

A Confirmatory Factor Analytic Study Examining the Dimensionality of Educational Achievement Tests

It is important to check the fundamental assumption of most popular Item Response Theory models, unidimensionality. However, it is hard for educational and psychological tests to be strictly unidimensional. The tests studied in this paper are from a standardized high-stake testing program. They feature potential multidimensionality by presenting various item types and item sets. Confirmatory factor analyses with one-factor and bifactor models, and based on both linear structural equation modeling approach and nonlinear IRT approach were conducted. The competing models were compared and the implications of the bifactor model for checking essential unidimensionality were discussed.

Improving automatic detection of obstructive sleep apnea through nonlinear analysis of sustained speech

We present a novel approach for the detection of severe obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) based on patients' voices introducing nonlinear measures to describe sustained speech dynamics. Nonlinear features were combined with state-of-the-art speech recognition systems using statistical modeling techniques (Gaussian mixture models, GMMs) over cepstral parameterization (MFCC) for both continuous and sustained speech. Tests were performed on a database including speech records from both severe OSA and control speakers. A 10 % relative reduction in classification error was obtained for sustained speech when combining MFCC-GMM and nonlinear features, and 33 % when fusing nonlinear features with both sustained and continuous MFCC-GMM. Accuracy reached 88.5 % allowing the system to be used in OSA early detection. Tests showed that nonlinear features and MFCCs are lightly correlated on sustained speech, but uncorrelated on continuous speech. Results also suggest the existence of nonlinear effects in OSA patients' voices, which should be found in continuous speech.

Automated wordlength optimization framework for multi-source statistical interval-based analysis of nonlinear systems with control-flow structures

El uso de aritmética de punto fijo es una opción de diseño muy extendida en sistemas con fuertes restricciones de área, consumo o rendimiento. Para producir implementaciones donde los costes se minimicen sin impactar negativamente en la precisión de los resultados debemos llevar a cabo una asignación cuidadosa de anchuras de palabra. Encontrar la combinación óptima de anchuras de palabra en coma fija para un sistema dado es un problema combinatorio NP-hard al que los diseñadores dedican entre el 25 y el 50 % del ciclo de diseño. Las plataformas hardware reconfigurables, como son las FPGAs, también se benefician de las ventajas que ofrece la aritmética de coma fija, ya que éstas compensan las frecuencias de reloj más bajas y el uso más ineficiente del hardware que hacen estas plataformas respecto a los ASICs. A medida que las FPGAs se popularizan para su uso en computación científica los diseños aumentan de tamaño y complejidad hasta llegar al punto en que no pueden ser manejados eficientemente por las técnicas actuales de modelado de señal y ruido de cuantificación y de optimización de anchura de palabra. En esta Tesis Doctoral exploramos distintos aspectos del problema de la cuantificación y presentamos nuevas metodologías para cada uno de ellos: Las técnicas basadas en extensiones de intervalos han permitido obtener modelos de propagación de señal y ruido de cuantificación muy precisos en sistemas con operaciones no lineales. Nosotros llevamos esta aproximación un paso más allá introduciendo elementos de Multi-Element Generalized Polynomial Chaos (ME-gPC) y combinándolos con una técnica moderna basada en Modified Affine Arithmetic (MAA) estadístico para así modelar sistemas que contienen estructuras de control de flujo. Nuestra metodología genera los distintos caminos de ejecución automáticamente, determina las regiones del dominio de entrada que ejercitarán cada uno de ellos y extrae los momentos estadísticos del sistema a partir de dichas soluciones parciales. Utilizamos esta técnica para estimar tanto el rango dinámico como el ruido de redondeo en sistemas con las ya mencionadas estructuras de control de flujo y mostramos la precisión de nuestra aproximación, que en determinados casos de uso con operadores no lineales llega a tener tan solo una desviación del 0.04% con respecto a los valores de referencia obtenidos mediante simulación. Un inconveniente conocido de las técnicas basadas en extensiones de intervalos es la explosión combinacional de términos a medida que el tamaño de los sistemas a estudiar crece, lo cual conlleva problemas de escalabilidad. Para afrontar este problema presen tamos una técnica de inyección de ruidos agrupados que hace grupos con las señales del sistema, introduce las fuentes de ruido para cada uno de los grupos por separado y finalmente combina los resultados de cada uno de ellos. De esta forma, el número de fuentes de ruido queda controlado en cada momento y, debido a ello, la explosión combinatoria se minimiza. También presentamos un algoritmo de particionado multi-vía destinado a minimizar la desviación de los resultados a causa de la pérdida de correlación entre términos de ruido con el objetivo de mantener los resultados tan precisos como sea posible. La presente Tesis Doctoral también aborda el desarrollo de metodologías de optimización de anchura de palabra basadas en simulaciones de Monte-Cario que se ejecuten en tiempos razonables. Para ello presentamos dos nuevas técnicas que exploran la reducción del tiempo de ejecución desde distintos ángulos: En primer lugar, el método interpolativo aplica un interpolador sencillo pero preciso para estimar la sensibilidad de cada señal, y que es usado después durante la etapa de optimización. En segundo lugar, el método incremental gira en torno al hecho de que, aunque es estrictamente necesario mantener un intervalo de confianza dado para los resultados finales de nuestra búsqueda, podemos emplear niveles de confianza más relajados, lo cual deriva en un menor número de pruebas por simulación, en las etapas iniciales de la búsqueda, cuando todavía estamos lejos de las soluciones optimizadas. Mediante estas dos aproximaciones demostramos que podemos acelerar el tiempo de ejecución de los algoritmos clásicos de búsqueda voraz en factores de hasta x240 para problemas de tamaño pequeño/mediano. Finalmente, este libro presenta HOPLITE, una infraestructura de cuantificación automatizada, flexible y modular que incluye la implementación de las técnicas anteriores y se proporciona de forma pública. Su objetivo es ofrecer a desabolladores e investigadores un entorno común para prototipar y verificar nuevas metodologías de cuantificación de forma sencilla. Describimos el flujo de trabajo, justificamos las decisiones de diseño tomadas, explicamos su API pública y hacemos una demostración paso a paso de su funcionamiento. Además mostramos, a través de un ejemplo sencillo, la forma en que conectar nuevas extensiones a la herramienta con las interfaces ya existentes para poder así expandir y mejorar las capacidades de HOPLITE. ABSTRACT Using fixed-point arithmetic is one of the most common design choices for systems where area, power or throughput are heavily constrained. In order to produce implementations where the cost is minimized without negatively impacting the accuracy of the results, a careful assignment of word-lengths is required. The problem of finding the optimal combination of fixed-point word-lengths for a given system is a combinatorial NP-hard problem to which developers devote between 25 and 50% of the design-cycle time. Reconfigurable hardware platforms such as FPGAs also benefit of the advantages of fixed-point arithmetic, as it compensates for the slower clock frequencies and less efficient area utilization of the hardware platform with respect to ASICs. As FPGAs become commonly used for scientific computation, designs constantly grow larger and more complex, up to the point where they cannot be handled efficiently by current signal and quantization noise modelling and word-length optimization methodologies. In this Ph.D. Thesis we explore different aspects of the quantization problem and we present new methodologies for each of them: The techniques based on extensions of intervals have allowed to obtain accurate models of the signal and quantization noise propagation in systems with non-linear operations. We take this approach a step further by introducing elements of MultiElement Generalized Polynomial Chaos (ME-gPC) and combining them with an stateof- the-art Statistical Modified Affine Arithmetic (MAA) based methodology in order to model systems that contain control-flow structures. Our methodology produces the different execution paths automatically, determines the regions of the input domain that will exercise them, and extracts the system statistical moments from the partial results. We use this technique to estimate both the dynamic range and the round-off noise in systems with the aforementioned control-flow structures. We show the good accuracy of our approach, which in some case studies with non-linear operators shows a 0.04 % deviation respect to the simulation-based reference values. A known drawback of the techniques based on extensions of intervals is the combinatorial explosion of terms as the size of the targeted systems grows, which leads to scalability problems. To address this issue we present a clustered noise injection technique that groups the signals in the system, introduces the noise terms in each group independently and then combines the results at the end. In this way, the number of noise sources in the system at a given time is controlled and, because of this, the combinato rial explosion is minimized. We also present a multi-way partitioning algorithm aimed at minimizing the deviation of the results due to the loss of correlation between noise terms, in order to keep the results as accurate as possible. This Ph.D. Thesis also covers the development of methodologies for word-length optimization based on Monte-Carlo simulations in reasonable times. We do so by presenting two novel techniques that explore the reduction of the execution times approaching the problem in two different ways: First, the interpolative method applies a simple but precise interpolator to estimate the sensitivity of each signal, which is later used to guide the optimization effort. Second, the incremental method revolves on the fact that, although we strictly need to guarantee a certain confidence level in the simulations for the final results of the optimization process, we can do it with more relaxed levels, which in turn implies using a considerably smaller amount of samples, in the initial stages of the process, when we are still far from the optimized solution. Through these two approaches we demonstrate that the execution time of classical greedy techniques can be accelerated by factors of up to ×240 for small/medium sized problems. Finally, this book introduces HOPLITE, an automated, flexible and modular framework for quantization that includes the implementation of the previous techniques and is provided for public access. The aim is to offer a common ground for developers and researches for prototyping and verifying new techniques for system modelling and word-length optimization easily. We describe its work flow, justifying the taken design decisions, explain its public API and we do a step-by-step demonstration of its execution. We also show, through an example, the way new extensions to the flow should be connected to the existing interfaces in order to expand and improve the capabilities of HOPLITE.

10Gbit/s dispersion managed soliton transmission over 16,500km in standard fibre by reduction of soliton interactions

We show experimentally and numerically that in high-speed strongly dispersion-managed standard fiber soliton systems nonlinear interactions limit the propagation distance. We present results that show that the effect of these interactions can be significantly reduced by appropriate location of the amplifier within the dispersion map. Using this technique, we have been able to extend the propagation distance of 10-Gbit/s 231–1pseudorandom binary sequence soliton data to 16, 500km over standard fiber by use of dispersion compensation. To our knowledge this distance is the farthest transmission over standard fiber without active control ever reported, and it was achieved with the amplifier placed after the dispersion-compensating fiber in a recirculating loop.

Modelling nonlinear stochastic dynamics in financial time series

For analysing financial time series two main opposing viewpoints exist, either capital markets are completely stochastic and therefore prices follow a random walk, or they are deterministic and consequently predictable. For each of these views a great variety of tools exist with which it can be tried to confirm the hypotheses. Unfortunately, these methods are not well suited for dealing with data characterised in part by both paradigms. This thesis investigates these two approaches in order to model the behaviour of financial time series. In the deterministic framework methods are used to characterise the dimensionality of embedded financial data. The stochastic approach includes here an estimation of the unconditioned and conditional return distributions using parametric, non- and semi-parametric density estimation techniques. Finally, it will be shown how elements from these two approaches could be combined to achieve a more realistic model for financial time series.