A Proper Yield Curve for Greece to Kick-Start Financial Intermediation. ECMI Policy Brief No. 21, 10 December 2013

At present, the market is severely mispricing Greece’s sovereign risk relative to the country’s fundamentals. As a result of the mispricing, financial intermediation in Greece has become dysfunctional and the privatisation of state-owned assets has stalled. This mispricing is partially due to an illiquid and fragmented government yield curve. A well-designed public liability management exercise can lead to a more efficient pricing of Greece’s government bonds and thereby help restore stable and affordable financing for the country’s private sector, which is imperative in order to overcome Greece’s deep recession. This paper proposes three measures to enhance the functioning of the Greek government debt market: i) Greece should issue a new five-year bond, ii) it should consolidate the 20 individual series of government bonds into four liquid securities and iii) it should offer investors a swap of these newly created bonds into dollar-denominated securities. Each of these measures would be beneficial to the Hellenic Republic, since the government would be able to reduce the face value and the net present value of its debt stock. Furthermore, this exercise would facilitate the resumption of market access, which is a necessary condition for continuous multilateral disbursements to Greece.

The Valuation of Agricultural Land and the Influence of Government Payments. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 10, December 2011

This study gives an overview of the theoretical foundations, empirical procedures and derived results of the literature identifying determinants of land prices. Special attention is given to the effects of different government support policies on land prices. Since almost all empirical studies on the determination of land prices refer either to the net present value method or the hedonic pricing approach as a theoretical basis, a short review of these models is provided. While the two approaches have different theoretical bases, their empirical implementation converges. Empirical studies use a broad range of variables to explain land values and we systematise those into six categories. In order to investigate the influence of different measures of government support on land prices, a meta-regression analysis is carried out. Our results reveal a significantly higher rate of capitalisation for decoupled direct payments and a significantly lower rate of capitalisation for agri-environmental payments, as compared to the rest of government support. Furthermore, the results show that taking theoretically consistent land rents (returns to land) and including non-agricultural variables like urban pressure in the regression implies lower elasticities of capitalisation. In addition, we find a significant influence of the land type, the data type and estimation techniques on the capitalisation rate.

How returns from tertiary education differ by field of study. Implications for policy-makers and students. CEPS Working Document No. 411/July 2015

With the huge growth in enrolment in higher education, the key question facing young people today is not so much “what to study” as “whether to study”. Taking a methodologically innovative approach, this paper measures the net present value of university education and compares returns from studying a range of different subjects. We use data from 5 European countries (France, Italy, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia) and include (opportunity) costs in the computation. Results suggest that enrolling in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) courses is often not the best investment for students, especially female students. In choosing what to study, therefore, students are taking decisions that are consistent with their own private returns. This suggests that policymakers should consider changing the incentives offered if they wish to change students’ behaviour.

Projeto Aplicado “Acácias Perfume”

O presente trabalho, visa implementar uma perfumaria na província de Benguela-Angola, e tem como objetivo identificar a relevância da mesma e aferir a viabilidade económica e financeira do negócio. O setor da perfumaria e cosméticos ainda são dos menos competitivos em Benguela, contudo o segmento desta junção apresenta uma enorme margem de progressão, pois a oferta ainda é escassa, e existe uma tendência de se procurar cada vez mais estes produtos. A ideia surgiu devido a presença de uma realidade precária na oferta e procura desses produtos naquela província em geral, para além disso, alia-se o facto de não existir nenhuma perfumaria na zona onde se pretende instalar a perfumaria. Como tal, entendeu-se estar perante uma boa oportunidade de negócio. Os meios financeiros necessários foram de, 70% de capitais próprios e 30% através de empréstimo bancário, a uma taxa de juro anual de 14%. O montante total do financiamento foi de 15 306 060,00 AOA. Com base em estudos científicos, pesquisas de campo, livros, entrevistas a pessoas singulares e coletivas, e um plano financeiro aplicado bem elaborado, obtivemos resultados satisfatórios principalmente se analisarmos os três critérios de avaliação mais preponderantes de um projeto aplicado tais como o valor atual líquido de 617 051 187,75 AOA, taxa interna de rentabilidade de 56,40%, e é expectável que o período de recuperação do investimento seja aproximadamente de 3 anos. Consequentemente, foram utilizadas técnicas estratégicas académicas focadas nas características do mercado que apresentaram boas perspetivas futuras através de uma relação entre a visão do investimento o custo de oportunidade do negócio. Portanto, conclui-se que é um investimento viável, devido a características do mercado e os recursos tangíveis e intangíveis que nele ostentam, bem como as perspetivas futuras de sustentabilidade que a mesma apresenta.

Government privatization : history, examples and issues /

Tables include: 1) Risk distribution in various delivery systems; 2) Net present value examples; 3) Internal rate of return example ; 4) Illinois Tollway revenues and expenses ; 5) Prisoners held in private facilities.

Managing woodlands for income maximisation in western Queensland, Australia: clearing for grazing versus timber production

Queensland, Australia, has a proud pastoral history; however, the private and social benefits of continued woodland clearing for pasture development are unlikely to be as pronounced as they had been in the past. The environmental benefits of tree retention in and regions of the State are now better appreciated and market opportunities have arisen for the unique timbers of western Queensland. A financial model is developed to facilitate a comparison of the private profitability of small-scale timber production from remnant Acacia woodlands against clearing for pasture development in the Mulga Lands and Desert Uplands bioregions of western Queensland. Four small-scale timber production scenarios, which differ in target markets and the extent of processing (value-adding), are explored within the model. Each scenario is examined for the cases where property rights to the timber are vested with the timber processor, and where royalties are payable. For both cases of resource ownership, at least one scenario generates positive returns from timber production, and exceeds the net farm income per hectare for an average grazing property in the study regions over the period 1989-1990 to 2000-2001. The net present value per hectare of selectively harvesting and processing high-value clearwood from remnant western Queensland woodlands is found to be greater than clearing for grazing. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A real options based method for power system planning

A deregulated electricity market is characterized with uncertainties, with both long and short terms. As one of the major long term planning issues, the transmission expansion planning (TEP) is aiming at implementing reliable and secure network support to the market participants. The TEP covers two major issues: technical assessment and financial evaluations. Traditionally, the net present value (NPV) method is the most accepted for financial evaluations, it is simple to conduct and easy to understand. Nevertheless, TEP in a deregulated market needs a more dynamic approach to incorporate a project's management flexibility, or the managerial ability to adapt in response to unpredictable market developments. The real options approach (ROA) is introduced here, which has clear advantage on counting the future course of actions that investors may take, with understandable results in monetary terms. In the case study, a Nordic test system has been testified and several scenarios are given for network expansion planning. Both the technical assessment and financial evaluation have been conducted in the case study.

On the solution of a class of capital investment problems

In this work the solution of a class of capital investment problems is considered within the framework of mathematical programming. Upon the basis of the net present value criterion, the problems in question are mainly characterized by the fact that the cost of capital is defined as a non-decreasing function of the investment requirements. Capital rationing and some cases of technological dependence are also included, this approach leading to zero-one non-linear programming problems, for which specifically designed solution procedures supported by a general branch and bound development are presented. In the context of both this development and the relevant mathematical properties of the previously mentioned zero-one programs, a generalized zero-one model is also discussed. Finally,a variant of the scheme, connected with the search sequencing of optimal solutions, is presented as an alternative in which reduced storage limitations are encountered.

Energy saving and solar electricity in fan-ventilated greenhouses

Greenhouse cultivation is an energy intensive process therefore it is worthwhile to introduce energy saving measures and alternative energy sources. Here we show that there is scope for energy saving in fan ventilated greenhouses. Measurements of electricity usage as a function of fan speed have been performed for two models of 1.25 m diameter greenhouse fans and compared to theoretical values. Reducing the speed can cut the energy usage per volume of air moved by more than 70%. To minimize the capital cost of low-speed operation, a cooled greenhouse has been built in which the fan speed responds to sunlight such that full speed is reached only around noon. The energy saving is about 40% compared to constant speed operation. Direct operation of fans from solar-photovoltaic modules is also viable as shown from experiments with a fan driven by a brushless DC motor. On comparing the Net Present Value costs of the different systems over a 10 year amortization period (with and without a carbon tax to represent environmental costs) we find that sunlight-controlled system saves money under all assumptions about taxation and discount rates. The solar-powered system, however, is only profitable for very low discount rates, due to the high initial capital costs. Nonetheless this system could be of interest for its reliability in developing countries where mains electricity is intermittent. We recommend that greenhouse fan manufacturers improve the availability of energy-saving designs such as those described here.

A nettó jelenérték maximalizálása erőforrás-korlátos projektekben - egy új harmóniakereső metaheurisztika (A harmony search metaheuristic for the resourceconstrained project scheduling problem with discounted cash flows)

Ebben a tanulmányban a szerző egy új harmóniakereső metaheurisztikát mutat be, amely a minimális időtartamú erőforrás-korlátos ütemezések halmazán a projekt nettó jelenértékét maximalizálja. Az optimális ütemezés elméletileg két egész értékű (nulla-egy típusú) programozási feladat megoldását jelenti, ahol az első lépésben meghatározzuk a minimális időtartamú erőforrás-korlátos ütemezések időtartamát, majd a második lépésben az optimális időtartamot feltételként kezelve megoldjuk a nettó jelenérték maximalizálási problémát minimális időtartamú erőforrás-korlátos ütemezések halmazán. A probléma NP-hard jellege miatt az egzakt megoldás elfogadható idő alatt csak kisméretű projektek esetében képzelhető el. A bemutatandó metaheurisztika a Csébfalvi (2007) által a minimális időtartamú erőforrás-korlátos ütemezések időtartamának meghatározására és a tevékenységek ennek megfelelő ütemezésére kifejlesztett harmóniakereső metaheurisztika továbbfejlesztése, amely az erőforrás-felhasználási konfliktusokat elsőbbségi kapcsolatok beépítésével oldja fel. Az ajánlott metaheurisztika hatékonyságának és életképességének szemléltetésére számítási eredményeket adunk a jól ismert és népszerű PSPLIB tesztkönyvtár J30 részhalmazán futtatva. Az egzakt megoldás generálásához egy korszerű MILP-szoftvert (CPLEX) alkalmaztunk. _______________ This paper presents a harmony search metaheuristic for the resource-constrained project scheduling problem with discounted cash flows. In the proposed approach, a resource-constrained project is characterized by its „best” schedule, where best means a makespan minimal resource constrained schedule for which the net present value (NPV) measure is maximal. Theoretically the optimal schedule searching process is formulated as a twophase mixed integer linear programming (MILP) problem, which can be solved for small-scale projects in reasonable time. The applied metaheuristic is based on the "conflict repairing" version of the "Sounds of Silence" harmony search metaheuristic developed by Csébfalvi (2007) for the resource-constrained project scheduling problem (RCPSP). In order to illustrate the essence and viability of the proposed harmony search metaheuristic, we present computational results for a J30 subset from the well-known and popular PSPLIB. To generate the exact solutions a state-of-the-art MILP solver (CPLEX) was used.

A beruházási projektek aggregált tőkeigénye = The Aggregate Capital Needs of Investment Projects

A tanulmány abból indul ki, hogy a beruházási projektek értékelése során egyidejűleg szükséges figyelembe venni a projektben lekötött tőkét és a lekötési időt mint jövedelemtermelési lehetőséget. Definiálja a projekt aggregált tőkeigényének fogalmát és megszerkeszti a vonatkozó mérőszámot. Az aggregált tőkeigény új vállalatgazdasági kategória, mely a beruházási projektek értékelésének egy új megközelítését teszi lehetővé. A projekt aggregált tőkeigénye azt a tőkeösszeget jelenti, mely a projekt működtetéséhez annak teljes élettartama alatt szükséges. A három meghatározó tényező: a kezdőtőke, a megtérülési idő (illetőleg az élettartam) és a megtérülés gyorsasága. A számszerűsítéshez minden évre vonatkozóan meg kell határozni az adott évben lekötött tőkét, ami az adott évig még meg nem térült tőkerészt jelenti, majd ezek összegzése révén adódik az aggregált tőkeigény. A mértékegység egységnyi tőke egyévi lekötése. A tanulmány az összefüggések modellszerű levezetése mellett gazdag példaanyagot is tartalmaz. Az elemzés bővíti a nettó jelenérték tartalmára vonatkozó ismereteket, rávilágít az aggregált tőkeigény ismeretének fontosságára mind a nettó jelenérték, mind a belső kamatláb esetében. _____ The starting point of this paper is that in the evaluation process of investment projects necessary to take into account simultaneously the tied-up capital and tiedup time as the income-generating potential. For this, it defines a special content of aggregate capital needs of investment projects, and elaborates an index. The aggregate capital needs is a new business economics category, which provides a new aspect to evaluate investment projects. This means the amount of capital needed for the operation of the project during its full duration. Three factors determine the aggregate capital needs for investments projects. These are the amount of initial investment, the payback period (or the duration) and the rapidity of capital payback. The solution is to sum up the yearly tied-up capital, that is, the notreturned parts of the capital for each year. The measurement unit is one unit tied-up capital for one year. The paper formulates the main relationships as models and by way of explanation presents some examples. The analysis highlights the importance of considering the aggregate capital needs furthermore widens knowledge regarding the net present value and internal rate of return.

Essays on the impact of stakeholders' sentiment on the financial decision making process

The most important factor that affects the decision making process in finance is the risk which is usually measured by variance (total risk) or systematic risk (beta). Since investors’ sentiment (whether she is an optimist or pessimist) plays a very important role in the choice of beta measure, any decision made for the same asset within the same time horizon will be different for different individuals. In other words, there will neither be homogeneity of beliefs nor the rational expectation prevalent in the market due to behavioral traits. This dissertation consists of three essays. In the first essay, “ Investor Sentiment and Intrinsic Stock Prices”, a new technical trading strategy was developed using a firm specific individual sentiment measure. This behavioral based trading strategy forecasts a range within which a stock price moves in a particular period and can be used for stock trading. Results indicate that sample firms trade within a range and give signals as to when to buy or sell. In the second essay, “Managerial Sentiment and the Value of the Firm”, examined the effect of managerial sentiment on the project selection process using net present value criterion and also effect of managerial sentiment on the value of firm. Final analysis reported that high sentiment and low sentiment managers obtain different values for the same firm before and after the acceptance of a project. Changes in the cost of capital, weighted cost of average capital were found due to managerial sentiment. In the last essay, “Investor Sentiment and Optimal Portfolio Selection”, analyzed how the investor sentiment affects the nature and composition of the optimal portfolio as well as the portfolio performance. Results suggested that the choice of the investor sentiment completely changes the portfolio composition, i.e., the high sentiment investor will have a completely different choice of assets in the portfolio in comparison with the low sentiment investor. The results indicated the practical application of behavioral model based technical indicator for stock trading. Additional insights developed include the valuation of firms with a behavioral component and the importance of distinguishing portfolio performance based on sentiment factors.

Essays on the Impact of Stakeholders' Sentiment on the Financial Decision Making Process

The most important factor that affects the decision making process in finance is the risk which is usually measured by variance (total risk) or systematic risk (beta). Since investors' sentiment (whether she is an optimist or pessimist) plays a very important role in the choice of beta measure, any decision made for the same asset within the same time horizon will be different for different individuals. In other words, there will neither be homogeneity of beliefs nor the rational expectation prevalent in the market due to behavioral traits. This dissertation consists of three essays. In the first essay, Investor Sentiment and Intrinsic Stock Prices, a new technical trading strategy is developed using a firm specific individual sentiment measure. This behavioral based trading strategy forecasts a range within which a stock price moves in a particular period and can be used for stock trading. Results show that sample firms trade within a range and show signals as to when to buy or sell. The second essay, Managerial Sentiment and the Value of the Firm, examines the effect of managerial sentiment on the project selection process using net present value criterion and also effect of managerial sentiment on the value of firm. Findings show that high sentiment and low sentiment managers obtain different values for the same firm before and after the acceptance of a project. The last essay, Investor Sentiment and Optimal Portfolio Selection, analyzes how the investor sentiment affects the nature and composition of the optimal portfolio as well as the performance measures. Results suggest that the choice of the investor sentiment completely changes the portfolio composition, i.e., the high sentiment investor will have a completely different choice of assets in the portfolio in comparison with the low sentiment investor. The results indicate the practical application of behavioral model based technical indicators for stock trading. Additional insights developed include the valuation of firms with a behavioral component and the importance of distinguishing portfolio performance based on sentiment factors.

Estudo de simulação de reservatórios para o desenvolvimento de um campo do nordeste brasileiro

In the last 16 years emerged in Brazil a segment of independent producers with focus on onshore basins and shallow waters. Among the challenges of these companies is the development of fields with projects with a low net present value (NPV). The objective of this work was to study the technical-economical best option to develop an oil field in the Brazilian Northeast using reservoir simulation. Real geology, reservoir and production data was used to build the geological and simulation model. Due to not having PVT analysis, distillation method test data known as the true boiling points (TBP) were used to create a fluids model generating the PVT data. After execution of the history match, four development scenarios were simulated: the extrapolation of production without new investments, the conversion of a producing well for immiscible gas injection, the drilling of a vertical well and the drilling of a horizontal well. As a result, from the financial point of view, the gas injection is the alternative with lower added value, but it may be viable if there are environmental or regulatory restrictions to flaring or venting the produced gas into the atmosphere from this field or neighboring accumulations. The recovery factor achieved with the drilling of vertical and horizontal wells is similar, but the horizontal well is a project of production acceleration; therefore, the present incremental cumulative production with a minimum rate of company's attractiveness is higher. Depending on the crude oil Brent price and the drilling cost, this option can be technically and financially viable.

An application of evolutionary algorithms for WAG optimisation in the Norne Field

Water-alternating-gas (WAG) is an enhanced oil recovery method combining the improved macroscopic sweep of water flooding with the improved microscopic displacement of gas injection. The optimal design of the WAG parameters is usually based on numerical reservoir simulation via trial and error, limited by the reservoir engineer’s availability. Employing optimisation techniques can guide the simulation runs and reduce the number of function evaluations. In this study, robust evolutionary algorithms are utilized to optimise hydrocarbon WAG performance in the E-segment of the Norne field. The first objective function is selected to be the net present value (NPV) and two global semi-random search strategies, a genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm optimisation (PSO) are tested on different case studies with different numbers of controlling variables which are sampled from the set of water and gas injection rates, bottom-hole pressures of the oil production wells, cycle ratio, cycle time, the composition of the injected hydrocarbon gas (miscible/immiscible WAG) and the total WAG period. In progressive experiments, the number of decision-making variables is increased, increasing the problem complexity while potentially improving the efficacy of the WAG process. The second objective function is selected to be the incremental recovery factor (IRF) within a fixed total WAG simulation time and it is optimised using the same optimisation algorithms. The results from the two optimisation techniques are analyzed and their performance, convergence speed and the quality of the optimal solutions found by the algorithms in multiple trials are compared for each experiment. The distinctions between the optimal WAG parameters resulting from NPV and oil recovery optimisation are also examined. This is the first known work optimising over this complete set of WAG variables. The first use of PSO to optimise a WAG project at the field scale is also illustrated. Compared to the reference cases, the best overall values of the objective functions found by GA and PSO were 13.8% and 14.2% higher, respectively, if NPV is optimised over all the above variables, and 14.2% and 16.2% higher, respectively, if IRF is optimised.