Development of Safety Performance Functions for SafetyAnalyst Applications in Florida

In 2010, the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) released a safety analysis software system known as SafetyAnalyst. SafetyAnalyst implements the empirical Bayes (EB) method, which requires the use of Safety Performance Functions (SPFs). The system is equipped with a set of national default SPFs, and the software calibrates the default SPFs to represent the agency’s safety performance. However, it is recommended that agencies generate agency-specific SPFs whenever possible. Many investigators support the view that the agency-specific SPFs represent the agency data better than the national default SPFs calibrated to agency data. Furthermore, it is believed that the crash trends in Florida are different from the states whose data were used to develop the national default SPFs. In this dissertation, Florida-specific SPFs were developed using the 2008 Roadway Characteristics Inventory (RCI) data and crash and traffic data from 2007-2010 for both total and fatal and injury (FI) crashes. The data were randomly divided into two sets, one for calibration (70% of the data) and another for validation (30% of the data). The negative binomial (NB) model was used to develop the Florida-specific SPFs for each of the subtypes of roadway segments, intersections and ramps, using the calibration data. Statistical goodness-of-fit tests were performed on the calibrated models, which were then validated using the validation data set. The results were compared in order to assess the transferability of the Florida-specific SPF models. The default SafetyAnalyst SPFs were calibrated to Florida data by adjusting the national default SPFs with local calibration factors. The performance of the Florida-specific SPFs and SafetyAnalyst default SPFs calibrated to Florida data were then compared using a number of methods, including visual plots and statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The plots of SPFs against the observed crash data were used to compare the prediction performance of the two models. Three goodness-of-fit tests, represented by the mean absolute deviance (MAD), the mean square prediction error (MSPE), and Freeman-Tukey R2 (R2FT), were also used for comparison in order to identify the better-fitting model. The results showed that Florida-specific SPFs yielded better prediction performance than the national default SPFs calibrated to Florida data. The performance of Florida-specific SPFs was further compared with that of the full SPFs, which include both traffic and geometric variables, in two major applications of SPFs, i.e., crash prediction and identification of high crash locations. The results showed that both SPF models yielded very similar performance in both applications. These empirical results support the use of the flow-only SPF models adopted in SafetyAnalyst, which require much less effort to develop compared to full SPFs.

Some problems and errors in cytogenetic biodosimetry

Human radiosensitivity is a quantitative trait that is generally subject to binomial distribution. Individual radiosensitivity, however, may deviate significantly from the mean (by 2-3 standard deviations). Thus, the same dose of radiation may result in different levels of genotoxic damage (commonly measured as chromosome aberration rates) in different individuals. There is significant genetic component in individual radiosensitivity. It is related to carriership of variant alleles of various single-nucleotide polymorphisms (most of these in genes coding for proteins functioning in DNA damage identification and repair); carriership of different number of alleles producing cumulative effects; amplification of gene copies coding for proteins responsible for radioresistance, mobile genetic elements, and others. Among the other factors influencing individual radioresistance are: radioadaptive response; bystander effect; levels of endogenous substances with radioprotective and antimutagenic properties and environmental factors such as lifestyle and diet, physical activity, psychoemotional state, hormonal state, certain drugs, infections and others. These factors may have radioprotective or sensibilising effects. Apparently, there are too many factors that may significantly modulate the biological effects of ionising radiation. Thus, conventional methodologies for biodosimetry (specifically, cytogenetic methods) may produce significant errors if personal traits that may affect radioresistance are not accounted for.

Disturbance detection for optimal database storage in electrical distribution systems using artificial immune systems with negative selection

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Negative impact of climate change on the distribution of some conifers

A climate envelope model was run on the distribution of four coniferous species (European silver fir, European larch, Norway spruce, and Swiss pine). The model was supported by EUFORGEN area database, ArcGIS 10 and PAST software, andREMO climate model. Prediction periods were 2011-40 and 2041-70.

Geographical Distribution Of The Association Between El Niño South Oscillation And Dengue Fever In The Americas: A Continental Analysis Using Geographical Information System-based Techniques.

El Niño South Oscillation (ENSO) is one climatic phenomenon related to the inter-annual variability of global meteorological patterns influencing sea surface temperature and rainfall variability. It influences human health indirectly through extreme temperature and moisture conditions that may accelerate the spread of some vector-borne viral diseases, like dengue fever (DF). This work examines the spatial distribution of association between ENSO and DF in the countries of the Americas during 1995-2004, which includes the 1997-1998 El Niño, one of the most important climatic events of 20(th) century. Data regarding the South Oscillation index (SOI), indicating El Niño-La Niña activity, were obtained from Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The annual DF incidence (AIy) by country was computed using Pan-American Health Association data. SOI and AIy values were standardised as deviations from the mean and plotted in bars-line graphics. The regression coefficient values between SOI and AIy (rSOI,AI) were calculated and spatially interpolated by an inverse distance weighted algorithm. The results indicate that among the five years registering high number of cases (1998, 2002, 2001, 2003 and 1997), four had El Niño activity. In the southern hemisphere, the annual spatial weighted mean centre of epidemics moved southward, from 6° 31' S in 1995 to 21° 12' S in 1999 and the rSOI,AI values were negative in Cuba, Belize, Guyana and Costa Rica, indicating a synchrony between higher DF incidence rates and a higher El Niño activity. The rSOI,AI map allows visualisation of a graded surface with higher values of ENSO-DF associations for Mexico, Central America, northern Caribbean islands and the extreme north-northwest of South America.

Self-organized distribution of periodicity and chaos in an electrochemical oscillator

We report a detailed numerical investigation of a prototype electrochemical oscillator, in terms of high-resolution phase diagrams for an experimentally relevant section of the control (parameter) space. The prototype model consists of a set of three autonomous ordinary differential equations which captures the general features of electrochemical oscillators characterized by a partially hidden negative differential resistance in an N-shaped current-voltage stationary curve. By computing Lyapunov exponents, we provide a detailed discrimination between chaotic and periodic phases of the electrochemical oscillator. Such phases reveal the existence of an intricate structure of domains of periodicity self-organized into a chaotic background. Shrimp-like periodic regions previously observed in other discrete and continuous systems were also observed here, which corroborate the universal nature of the occurrence of such structures. In addition, we have also found a structured period distribution within the order region. Finally we discuss the possible experimental realization of comparable phase diagrams.

Prevalence and distribution of the GBV-C/HGV among HIV-1-infected patients under anti-retroviral therapy

Infection with GB virus C (GBV-C) or hepatitis G virus (HGV) is highly prevalent among HIV/AIDS patients. GBV-C/HGV viremia has not been associated with liver disease and seems to slow HIV disease progression. To study the GBV-C/HGV genotypes prevalence among HIV/AIDS patients and its association with HIV viral load (VL) and CD4+ lymphocyte counts. From February 2003 to February 2004, we analyzed 210 HIV-1-infected subjects who were on anti-retroviral therapy (ART). For 63 of them a PCR-nested to the non-coding 5` (5`NCR) region of the GBV-C/HGV was done, and for 49 a DNA direct sequencing was done. A phylogenetic analysis was performed by PHYLIP program. 63(30%) of the HIV-1-infected patients were co-infected with GBV-C/HGV. The phylogenetic analysis revealed the following genotypes (and respective relative frequencies): 1(10%), 2a (41%), 2b (43%), and 3 (6%). Co-infected patients presented lower HIV-1 VL and higher T CD4+ lymphocyte cells counts as compared with patients negative for GBV-C/HGV sequences (log = 4.52 vs. 4.71, p = 0.036), and T CD4+ lymphocyte counts (cells/mm(3) = 322.6 vs. 273.5, p = 0.081, respectively). T CD4+ cells counts equal to, or higher than, 200/mm(3) were significantly more common among co-infected patients than among HIV-infected-only patients (p = 0.042). The lowest T CD4+ cells counts were associated with genotype 1 and the highest with genotype 2b (p = 0.05). The GBV-C/HGV infection prevalence was 30% among HIV-1-infected subjects, and was associated with lower VL and higher CD4+ lymphocyte counts. GBV-C/HGV genotype 2b may be associated with better immunological response. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Set-valued Markov chains and negative semitrajectories of discretized dynamical systems

Computer simulation of dynamical systems involves a phase space which is the finite set of machine arithmetic. Rounding state values of the continuous system to this grid yields a spatially discrete dynamical system, often with different dynamical behaviour. Discretization of an invertible smooth system gives a system with set-valued negative semitrajectories. As the grid is refined, asymptotic behaviour of the semitrajectories follows probabilistic laws which correspond to a set-valued Markov chain, whose transition probabilities can be explicitly calculated. The results are illustrated for two-dimensional dynamical systems obtained by discretization of fractional linear transformations of the unit disc in the complex plane.

Rab23, a negative regulator of hedgehog signaling, localizes to the plasma membrane and the endocytic pathway

The regulation of hedgehog signaling by vesicular trafficking was exemplified by the finding that Rab23, a Rab-GTPase vesicular transport protein, is mutated in open brain mice. In this study, the localization of Rab23 was analyzed by light and immunoelectron microscopy after expression of wild-type (Rab23-GFP), constitutively active Rab23 (Rab23Q68L-GFP), and inactive Rab23 (Rab23S23N-GFP) in a range of mammalian cell types. Rab23-GFP and Rab23Q68L-GFP were predominantly localized to the plasma membrane but were also associated with intracellular vesicular structures, whereas Rab23S23N-GFP was predominantly cytosolic. Vesicular Rab23-GFP colocalized with Rab5Q79L and internalized transferrin-biotin, but not with a marker of the late endosome or the Golgi complex. To investigate Rab23 with respect to members of the hedgehog signaling pathway, Rab23-GFP was coexpressed with either patched or smoothened. Patched colocalized with intracellular Rab23-GFP but smoothened did not. Analysis of patched distribution by light and immunoelectron microscopy revealed it is primarily localized to endosomal elements, including transferrin receptor-positive early endosomes and putative endosome carrier vesicles and, to a lesser extent, with LBPA-positive late endosomes, but was excluded from the plasma membrane. Neither patched or smoothened distribution was altered in the presence of wild-type nor mutant Rab23-GFP, suggesting that despite the endosomal colocalization of Rab23 and patched, it is likely that Rab23 acts more distally in regulating hedgehog signaling.

Temporal evolution and spatial distribution of maternal death

OBJECTIVE To analyze the temporal evolution of maternal mortality and its spatial distribution.METHODS Ecological study with a sample made up of 845 maternal deaths in women between 10 and 49 years, registered from 1999 to 2008 in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Southern Brazil. Data were obtained from Information System on Mortality of Ministry of Health. The maternal mortality ratio and the specific maternal mortality ratio were calculated from records, and analyzed by the Poisson regression model. In the spatial distribution, three maps of the state were built with the rates in the geographical macro-regions, in 1999, 2003, and 2008.RESULTS There was an increase of 2.0% in the period of ten years (95%CI 1.00;1.04; p = 0.01), with no significant change in the magnitude of the maternal mortality ratio. The Serra macro-region presented the highest maternal mortality ratio (1.15, 95%CI 1.08;1.21; p < 0.001). Most deaths in Rio Grande do Sul were of white women over 40 years, with a lower level of education. The time of delivery/abortion and postpartum are times of increased maternal risk, with a greater negative impact of direct causes such as hypertension and bleeding.CONCLUSIONS The lack of improvement in maternal mortality ratio indicates that public policies had no impact on women’s reproductive and maternal health. It is needed to qualify the attention to women’s health, especially in the prenatal period, seeking to identify and prevent risk factors, as a strategy of reducing maternal death.

Molecular identification of Candida dubliniensis isolated from oral lesions of HIV-positive and HIV-negative patients in São Paulo, Brazil

Candida dubliniensis is a new, recently described species of yeast. This emerging oral pathogen shares many phenotypic and biochemical characteristics with C. albicans, making it hard to differentiate between them, although they are genotypically distinct. In this study, PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction) was used to investigate the presence of C. dubliniensis in samples in a culture collection, which had been isolated from HIV-positive and HIV-negative patients with oral erythematous candidiasis. From a total of 37 samples previously identified as C. albicans by the classical method, two samples of C. dubliniensis (5.4%) were found through the use of PCR. This study underscores the presence of C. dubliniensis, whose geographical and epidemiological distribution should be more fully investigated.

Microbiological contamination of a hemodialysis center water distribution system

The microbiological monitoring of the water used for hemodialysis is extremely important, especially because of the debilitated immune system of patients suffering from chronic renal insufficiency. To investigate the occurrence and species diversity of bacteria in waters, water samples were collected monthly from a hemodialysis center in upstate São Paulo and tap water samples at the terminal sites of the distribution system was sampled repeatedly (22 times) at each of five points in the distribution system; a further 36 samples were taken from cannulae in 19 hemodialysis machines that were ready for the next patient, four samples from the reuse system and 13 from the water storage system. To identify bacteria, samples were filtered through 0.22 µm-pore membranes; for mycobacteria, 0.45 µm pores were used. Conventional microbiological and molecular methods were used in the analysis. Bacteria were isolated from the distribution system (128 isolates), kidney machine water (43) and reuse system (3). Among these isolates, 32 were Gram-positive rods, 120 Gram-negative rods, 20 Gram-positive cocci and 11 mycobacteria. We propose the continual monitoring of the water supplies in hemodialysis centers and the adoption of effective prophylactic measures that minimize the exposure of these immunodeficient patients to contaminated sources of water.

Can red cell distribution width be used as a marker of Crohn's disease activity?

Introduction: Recently, it has been suggested an association between red cell distribution width (RDW) and Crohn’s disease activity index (CDAI), but its use is not yet performed in daily clinical practice. Objectives: To determine whether RDW can be used as a marker of Crohn’s disease (CD) activity. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study including patients with CD, observed consecutively in an outpatient setting between January 1st and September 30th 2013. Blood cell indices, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), and C-reactive protein were measured. CD activity was determined by CDAI (active disease if CDAI ≥ 150). Associations were analyzed using logistic regression (SPSS version 20). Results: 119 patients (56% female) were included in the study with a mean age of 47 years (SD 15.2). Twenty patients (17%) had active disease. The median RDW was 14.0 (13---15). There was an association between RDW and disease activity (p = 0.044). After adjustment for age and gender, this association remained consistent (OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.03---1.39, p = 0.016). It was also found that the association between RDW and disease activity was independent of hemoglobin and ESR (OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.08---1.72, p = 0.01) and of biologic therapy (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.03---1.37, p = 0.017). A RDW cutoff of 16% had a specificity and negative predictive value for CDAI ≥ 150 of 88% and 86%, respectively. Conclusion: In this study, RDW proved to be an independent and relatively specific marker of CD activity. These results may contribute to the implementation of this simple parameter, in clinical practice, aiming to help therapeutic decisions.

Decline in prevalence and asymmetric distribution of human T cell lymphotropic virus 1 and 2 in blood donors, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil, 1993 to 2007

INTRODUCTION: Human T cell lymphotropic virus types 1 and 2 (HTLV-1/2) are endemic in Brazil and are screened for in transfusion services since 1993. This study evaluated the evolution of the prevalence of HTLV-1 and 2 in blood donors of the Hemominas Foundation from 1993 to 2007, and its geographical distribution in State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. METHODS: The Hemominas Foundation is a centralized blood center in Minas Gerais, Brazil. The sources of data were the Hemominas Foundation Technical Bulletin and files from the centralized serological laboratory. Donors were tested in the period using enzyme linked immuno sorbent assays (ELISA), followed by Western blot, when repeatedly reactive. The data were analyzed by EPIINFO 6.2 and TABWIN 3.5 softwares. RESULTS: The average seroprevalence in the period 1993-2007 was 0.1%. A steady decline occurred from 0.4% in 1993 to below 0.1% in 2002 and later, with a transient peak of 0.5% in 1994. HTLV reactivity distribution was asymmetrical in the state, with regions of higher prevalence, interspersed with low prevalence areas. Comparison of positive and negative donors verified that increasing age was proportional to virus positivity. Odds ratio for age ranged from 1.43 (30 to 39 years-old) to 3.09 (50 to 65 years-old). Women had a greater chance of being positive (OR-1.64), as previously described. CONCLUSIONS: Possible explanations for HTLV-1/2 prevalence decline are the exclusion of positive donors from the donor pool, an increase in repeat donors and ELISA test improvement, with reduction in the number of false positive results.

Hepatitis B virus infection in children, adolescents, and their relatives: genotype distribution and precore and core gene mutations

INTRODUCTION:The objectives of this study were evaluate hepatitis B virus (HBV) serological markers in children and adolescents followed up at the Child Institute of the Hospital das Clínicas, Faculdade de Medicina de São Paulo, Universidade de São Paulo; identify chronic HBV carriers and susceptible individuals in the intrafamilial environment; characterize HBV genotypes; and identify mutations in the patients and household contacts. METHODS: Ninety-five hepatitis B surface antigen-positive children aged <19 years and 118 household contacts were enrolled in this study. Commercial kits were used for the detection of serological markers, and PCR was used for genotyping. RESULTS: Hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) was detected in 66.3% (63/95) of cases. Three of the 30 HBeAg-negative and anti-HBeAg-positive patients presented with precore mutations and 11 presented with mutations in the basal core promoter (BCP). Genotype A was identified in 39 (43.8%) patients, genotype D in 45 (50.6%), and genotype C in 5 (5.6%). Of the 118 relatives, 40 were chronic HBV carriers, 52 presented with the anti-HBc marker, 19 were vaccinated, and 7 were susceptible. Among the relatives, genotypes A, D, and C were the most frequent. One parent presented with a precore mutation and 4 presented with BCP mutations. CONCLUSIONS: Genotypes A and D were the most frequent among children, adolescents, and their relatives. The high prevalence of HBV in the families showed the possibility of its intrafamilial transmission.