Modeling the impact of global tuberculosis control strategies

An epidemiological model of tuberculosis has been developed and applied to five regions of the world. Globally, 6.7 million new cases of tuberculosis and 2.4 million deaths from tuberculosis are estimated for 1998. Based on current trends in uptake of the World Health Organization’s strategy of directly observed treatment, short-course, we expect a total of 225 million new cases and 79 million deaths from tuberculosis between 1998 and 2030. Active case-finding by using mass miniature radiography could save 23 million lives over this period. A single contact treatment for tuberculosis could avert 24 million cases and 11 million deaths; combined with active screening, it could reduce mortality by nearly 40%. A new vaccine with 50% efficacy could lower incidence by 36 million cases and mortality by 9 million deaths. Support for major extensions to global tuberculosis control strategies will occur only if the size of the problem and the potential for action are recognized more widely.

Mutators and sex in bacteria: Conflict between adaptive strategies

Bacterial mutation rates can increase and produce genetic novelty, as shown by in vitro and in silico experiments. Despite the cost due to a heavy deleterious mutation load, mutator alleles, which increase the mutation rate, can spread in asexual populations during adaptation because they remain associated with the rare favorable mutations they generate. This indirect selection for a genetic system generating diversity (second-order selection) is expected to be highly sensitive to changes in the dynamics of adaptation. Here we show by a simulation approach that even rare genetic exchanges, such as bacterial conjugation or transformation, can dramatically reduce the selection of mutators. Moreover, drift or competition between the processes of mutation and recombination in the course of adaptation reveal how second-order selection is unable to optimize the rate of generation of novelty.

On strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions

Equity is of fundamental concern in the quest for international cooperation to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations by the reduction of emissions. By modeling the carbon cycle, we estimate the global CO2 emissions that would be required to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of CO2 at levels ranging from 450 to 1,000 ppm. These are compared, on both an absolute and a per-capita basis, to scenarios for emissions from the developed and developing worlds generated by socio-economic models under the assumption that actions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions are not taken. Need and equity have provided strong arguments for developing countries to request that the developed world takes the lead in controlling its emissions, while permitting the developing countries in the meantime to use primarily fossil fuels for their development. Even with major and early control of CO2 emissions by the developed world, limiting concentration to 450 ppm implies that the developing world also would need to control its emissions within decades, given that we expect developing world emissions would otherwise double over this time. Scenarios leading to CO2 concentrations of 550 ppm exhibit a reduction of the developed world's per-capita emission by about 50% over the next 50 years. Even for the higher stabilization levels considered, the developing world would not be able to use fossil fuels for their development in the manner that the developed world has used them.

Related homing endonucleases I-BmoI and I-TevI use different strategies to cleave homologous recognition sites

A typical homing endonuclease initiates mobility of its group I intron by recognizing DNA both upstream and downstream of the intron insertion site of intronless alleles, preventing the endonuclease from binding and cleaving its own intron-containing allele. Here, we describe a GIY-YIG family homing endonuclease, I-BmoI, that possesses an unusual recognition sequence, encompassing 1 base pair upstream but 38 base pairs downstream of the intron insertion site. I-BmoI binds intron-containing and intronless substrates with equal affinity but can nevertheless discriminate between the two for cleavage. I-BmoI is encoded by a group I intron that interrupts the thymidylate synthase (TS) gene (thyA) of Bacillus mojavensis s87-18. This intron resembles one inserted 21 nucleotides further downstream in a homologous TS gene (td) of Escherichia coli phage T4. I-TevI, the T4 td intron-encoded GIY-YIG endonuclease, is very similar to I-BmoI, but each endonuclease gene is inserted within a different position of its respective intron. Remarkably, I-TevI and I-BmoI bind a homologous stretch of TS-encoding DNA and cleave their intronless substrates in very similar positions. Our results suggest that each endonuclease has independently evolved the ability to distinguish intron-containing from intronless alleles while maintaining the same conserved recognition sequence centered on DNA-encoding active site residues of TS.

Identifying the role of natural resources in knowledge-based strategies of development

Knowledge has adopted a preferential role in the explanation of development while the evidence about the effect of natural resources in countries’ performance is more controversial in the economic literature. This paper tries to demonstrate that natural resources may positively affect growth in countries with a strong natural resources specialization pattern although the magnitude of these effects depend on the type of resources and on other aspects related to the production and innovation systems. The positive trajectory described by a set of national economies mainly specialized in natural resources and low-tech industries invites us to analyze what is the combination of factors that serves as engine for a sustainable development process. With panel data for the period 1996-2008 we estimate an applied growth model where both traditional factors and other more related to innovation and absorptive capabilities are taken into account. Our empirical findings show that according to the postulates of a knowledge-based approach, a framework that combines physical and intangible factors is more suitable for the definition of development strategies in those prosperous economies dominated by natural resources and connected activities, while the internationalization process of activities and technologies become also a very relevant aspect.

Developing an Interdependent Relationship between Preservation and Recreation: Managing Mountain Bicycling in National Parks

Increasing demand from mountain bikers for greater access to riding in National Park Service (NPS) units is driving the need for park managers to seriously look at the impacts from and feasibility of permitting this recreational use. Currently, NPS units that permit mountain bicycling do not have formal mountain bicycling management plans. An analysis of recreational policies and existing research was conducted to identify criteria for effective mountain bicycling management strategies. Criteria were developed for trail selection, establishment, use, closures and rehabilitation. Criteria were also developed for user education, participatory planning and monitoring. This study shows that the NPS needs formal mountain bicycling management plans that focus on the preservation of natural and cultural resources and consider the appropriateness of proposed recreational uses.

The Exploration and Development of Alternative Management Strategies for Mining and Recreational Activities Atop Mount Antero and Mount White; Chaffee County, Colorado

The Mount Antero/White area is a popular prospecting area. Recent expansions in the recreation economy is drawing more visitors to the area. Consequently, visitors may be placing unsustainable pressures on the landscape. In order to help rectify this, the legal, ecological, geologic, aesthetic, recreational, historic, social, and economic character of the Antero/White area has been identified. Four feasible management alternatives have also been recognized. They are a) take no new management actions, b) prohibit motorized activities in the area, c) develop a mineralogical park, and d) a combination of options b and c. Option C has been defended, as it best balances the desires of area users with the underlying ecological and geological character of the area.

Redrawing Identity Boundaries through Integration Policies: Strategies of Inclusion/Exclusion of Immigrants in Québec and South Tyrol. EDAP Paper 01/2013

Following the research agenda introduced by Will Kymlicka, this qualitative study offers an interpretation of how the sub-national elites of Québec and South Tyrol police the integration of immigrants. For these national minority groups, which are constantly undergoing a process of redefinition of their collective identities by differentiating themselves from the Others who do not belong to the in-group, immigrants have progressively become the most significant Others as they are not part of the original system of compromises. This article questions how sub-national elites are handling this relatively new kind of ethnocultural diversity brought about by large-scale permanent immigration on two levels: first, the political narrative of the ruling sub-national parties, their electoral appeals, manifestos and speeches; second, the policy arrangements for the integration of immigrants in education, language and social policy. The initial approach of the article is pessimistic, as it assumes that sub-national elites will marginalize immigrants to please core nationalist supporters. In fact, the hypotheses to be tested are whether the national minority groups of Québec and South Tyrol engage in a process of reconstruction of their ethnic identity bounded by opposition to real or imagined Others – the newcomers; and whether they adopt practical measures that force newcomers to be assimilated into the group or to be marginalized. The comparison between Québec and South Tyrol provides a basic understanding of the impact of immigration in two sub-national polities that are very different, but still adopt similar political narratives and policy strategies with regard to the integration of newcomers.

Patenting Strategies of the EU Pharmaceutical Industry -Crossroad between Patent Law and Competition Policy. Research Papers in Law, 1/2011

From the Introduction. The pharmaceutical sector inquiry carried out by the European Commission in 2008 provides a useful framework for assessing the relationship between the patent system on the one hand and competition policy and law on the other hand. The pharmaceutical market is not only specifically regulated. It is also influenced by the special characteristics of the patent system which enables pharmaceutical companies engaged in research activities to enter into additional arrangements to cope with the competitive pressures of early patent application and the delays in drug approval. Patents appear difficult to reconcile with the need for sufficient and adequate access to medicines, which is why competition expectations imposed on the pharmaceutical sector are very high. The patent system and competition law are interacting components of the market, into which they must both be integrated. This can result in competition law taking a very strict view on the pharmaceutical industry by establishing strict functional performance standards for the reliance on intellectual property rights protection granted by patent law. This is in particular because in this sector the potential welfare losses are not likely to be of only monetary nature. In brief, the more inefficiencies the patent system produces, the greater the risk of an expansive application of competition law in this field. The aim of the present study is to offer a critical and objective view on the use or abuse of patents and defensive strategies in the pharmaceutical industry. It shall also seek to establish whether patents as presently regulated offer an appropriate degree of protection of intellectual property held by the economic operators in the pharmaceutical sector and whether there is a need or, for that matter, scope for improvement. A useful starting point for the present study is provided by the pharmaceutical sector competition inquiry (hereafter “the sector inquiry”) carried out by the European Commission during the first half of 2008. On 8 July 2008, the Commission adopted its Final Report pursuant to Article 17 of Regulation 1/2003 EC, revealing a series of “antitrust shortcomings” that would require further investigation1.

Is the "Dubai model" a new paradigm for growth and investment strategies for oil-based economies? Case study: Eurasia. ACES Working Papers No. 8, 2008

The first part of the paper addresses the theoretical background of economic growth and competitive advantage models. Although there is a whole set of research on a relationship between foreign direct investments and economic growth, little has been said on foreign direct investments and national competitive advantage with respect to economic growth of oil and gas abundant countries of Middle East and Central Asia. The second part of our paper introduces the framework of the so-called "Dubai Model" in detail and outlines the key components necessary to develop sustainable comparative advantage for the oil-rich economies. The third part proceeds with the methodology employed to measure the success of the "Dubai Model" in the UAE and in application to other regions. The last part brings the results and investigates the degree to which other oil and gas countries in the region (i.e. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Iran) have adopted the so-called "Dubai Model". It also examines if the Dubai Model is being employed in the Eurasian (Central Asian) oil and gas regions of Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The objective is to gauge if the Eurasian economies are employing the traditional growth strategies of oil-rich non-OECD countries in managing their natural resources or are they adopting the newer non-traditional model of economic growth, such as the "Dubai Model."

How European Integration Impacts on National Legislatures: The Europeanization of The German Bundestag. CES Germany and Europe Working Papers, No. 06.2, 2006

In looking at the Europeanization of the German Bundestag, the paper brings together two different debates: the well-established debate on the democratic legitimacy of the European Union sees national Parliaments as guarantor of one branch of a "dual" legitimacy. The more recent debate on "Europeanization" addresses the impacts that European integration has had on its Member States. Analyzing the Europeanization of the German Bundestag, the paper identifies and analyzes three dimensions: legislative Europeanization – the extent to which legislative decision making by the German Bundestag has been influenced by European stipulations over the last twenty years; institutional Europeanization – how the Bundestag as an institution reacted to this loss of function by establishing institutional and procedural provisions for influencing the government's Euro-politics; and strategic Europeanization – the ways in which individual MPs started more recently to develop euro-political strategies that go beyond controlling the national government. The paper shows that the Bundestag only hesitantly reacted to the increasing loss of functions through legislative Europeanization by establishing effective institutional and procedural provisions for controlling the government's Euro-political activities. What is more, the establishment of institutions does not guarantee their effective use. All in all, Euro- politics continues to remain the activity of few MPs. These few, however, have more recently started to europeanize their strategies. The empirical findings support the claim that the traditional concept of chains of legitimacy is inadequate, both in conceptual and in empirical terms. With regard to the democ- ratic legitimacy of EU governance, this indicates that, apart from major reform projects, especially with regard to everyday legislation, not too great a burden should be placed on national Parliaments.

Heterogeneity in testing practices for infections during pregnancy: national survey across Switzerland.

QUESTION Detection and treatment of infections during pregnancy are important for both maternal and child health. The objective of this study was to describe testing practices and adherence to current national guidelines in Switzerland. METHODS We invited all registered practicing obstetricians and gynaecologists in Switzerland to complete an anonymous web-based questionnaire about strategies for testing for 14 infections during pregnancy. We conducted a descriptive analysis according to demographic characteristics. RESULTS Of 1138 invited clinicians, 537 (47.2%) responded and 520 (45.6%) were eligible as they are currently caring for pregnant women. Nearly all eligible respondents tested all pregnant women for group B streptococcus (98.0%), hepatitis B virus (HBV) (96.5%) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (94.7%), in accordance with national guidelines. Although testing for toxoplasmosis is not recommended, 24.1% of respondents tested all women and 32.9% tested at the request of the patient. Hospital doctors were more likely not to test for toxoplasmosis than doctors working in private practice (odds ratio [OR] 2.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-6.13, p = 0.04). Only 80.4% of respondents tested all women for syphilis. There were regional differences in testing for some infections. The proportion of clinicians testing all women for HIV, HBV and syphilis was lower in Eastern Switzerland and the Zurich region (69.4% and 61.2%, respectively) than in other regions (range 77.1-88.1%, p <0.001). Most respondents (74.5%) said they would appreciate national guidelines about testing for infections during pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS Testing practices for infections in pregnant women vary widely in Switzerland. More extensive national guidelines could improve consistency of testing practices.