4 ◦C and beyond: what did this mean for biodiversity in the past?

How do the predicted climatic changes (IPCC, 2007) for the next century compare in magnitude and rate to those that Earth has previously encountered? Are there comparable intervals of rapid rates of temperature change, sea-level rise and levels of atmospheric CO2 that can be used as analogues to assess possible biotic responses to future change? Or are we stepping into the great unknown? This perspective article focuses on intervals in time in the fossil record when atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased up to 1200 ppmv, temperatures in mid- to high-latitudes increased by greater than 4 ?C within 60 years, and sea levels rose by up to 3 m higher than present. For these intervals in time, case studies of past biotic responses are presented to demonstrate the scale and impact of the magnitude and rate of such climate changes on biodiversity. We argue that although the underlying mechanisms responsible for these past changes in climate were very different (i.e. natural processes rather than anthropogenic), the rates and magnitude of climate change are similar to those predicted for the future and therefore potentially relevant to understanding future biotic response. What emerges from these past records is evidence for rapid community turnover, migrations, development of novel ecosystems and thresholds from one stable ecosystem state to another, but there is very little evidence for broad-scale extinctions due to a warming world. Based on this evidence from the fossil record, we make four recommendations for future climate-change integrated conservation strategies.

Climate variability drives anchovies and sardines into the North and Baltic Seas

European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) and sardine (Sardina pilchardus) are southern, warm water species that prefer temperatures warmer than those found in boreal waters. After about 40 years of absence, they were again observed in the 1990s in increasing quantities in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. Whereas global warming probably played a role in these northward migrations, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the contraction of the subpolar gyre were important influences. Sardine re-invaded the North Sea around 1990, probably mainly as a response to warmer temperatures associated with the strengthening of the NAO in the late 1980s. However, increasing numbers of anchovy eggs, larvae, juveniles and adults have been recorded only since the mid-1990s, when, particularly, summer temperatures started to increase. This is probably a result of the complex dynamics of ocean–atmosphere coupling involving changes in North Atlantic current structures, such as the contraction of the subpolar gyre, and dynamics of AMO. Apparently, climate variability drives anchovies and sardines into the North and Baltic Seas. Here, we elucidate the climatic background of the return of anchovies and sardines to the northern European shelf seas and the changes in the North Sea fish community in the mid-1990s in response to climate variability.

Deep impact: in situ functional responses reveal context-dependent interactions between vertically migrating invasive and native mesopredators and shared prey

The ecological effects of invasive species depend on myriad environmental contexts, rendering understanding problematic. Functional responses provide a means to quantify resource use by consumers over short timescales and could therefore provide insight into how the effects of invasive species vary over space and time. Here, we use novel in situ microcosm experiments to track changes in the functional responses of two aquatic mesopredators, one native and the other an invader, as they undergo diel vertical migrations through a lake water column.
The Ponto–Caspian mysid, Hemimysis anomala, a known ecologically damaging invader, generally had higher a functional response towards cladoceran prey than did a native trophic analogue, Mysis salemaai. However, this differential was spatiotemporally dependent, being minimal during the day on the lake bottom, and increasing at night, particularly inshore.
Because the functional response of the native predator was spatiotemporally consistent, the above pattern was driven by changes in the invader functional response over the diel cycle. In particular, the functional response of H. anomala was significantly reduced on the lake bottom during the daytime relative to night, and predation was especially pronounced in shallow surface waters.
We demonstrate the context dependency of the effects of an invasive predator on prey populations and emphasise the utility of functional responses as tools to inform our understanding of predator–prey interactions. In situ manipulations integrate experimental rigour with field relevance and have the potential to reveal how impacts manifest over a range of spatiotemporal scales.

"...and they won land among the Picts by friendly treaty or the sword": How a re-examination of early historical sources and an analysis of early medieval settlement in north Co. Antrim confirms the validity of traditional accounts of Dál Riatic migration to Scotland from Ulster

Much recent scholarship has been critical of the concept of a Dál Riatic migration to, or colonisation of, Argyll. Scepticism of the accuracy of the early medieval accounts of this population movement, arguing that these are late amendments to early sources, coupled with an apparent lack of archaeological evidence for such a migration have led to its rejection. It is argued here, however, that this rejection has been based on too narrow a reading of historical sources and that there are several early accounts which, while differing in detail, agree on one point of substance, that the origin of Scottish Dál Riata lies in Ireland. Also, the use of archaeological evidence to suggest no migration to Argyll by the Dál Riata is flawed, misunderstanding the nature of early migrations and how they might be archaeologically identified, and it's proposed that there is actually quite a lot of evidence for migration to Argyll by the Dál Riata, in the form of settlement and artefactural evidence, but that it is to be found in Ireland through the mechanism of counterstream migration, rather than in Scotland.

Phylogeny and ancient DNA of Sus provides insights into neolithic expansion in Island Southeast Asia and Oceania

Human settlement of Oceania marked the culmination of a global colonization process that began when humans first left Africa at least 90,000 years ago. The precise origins and dispersal routes of the Austronesian peoples and the associated Lapita culture remain contentious, and numerous disparate models of dispersal (based primarily on linguistic, genetic, and archeological data) have been proposed. Here, through the use of mtDNA from 781 modern and ancient Sus specimens, we provide evidence for an early human-mediated translocation of the Sulawesi warty pig (Sus celebensis) to Flores and Timor and two later separate human-mediated dispersals of domestic pig (Sus scrofa) through Island Southeast Asia into Oceania. Of the later dispersal routes, one is unequivocally associated with the Neolithic (Lapita) and later Polynesian migrations and links modern and archeological Javan, Sumatran, Wallacean, and Oceanic pigs with mainland Southeast Asian S. scrofa. Archeological and genetic evidence shows these pigs were certainly introduced to islands east of the Wallace Line, including New Guinea, and that so-called "wild" pigs within this region are most likely feral descendants of domestic pigs introduced by early agriculturalists. The other later pig dispersal links mainland East Asian pigs to western Micronesia, Taiwan, and the Philippines. These results provide important data with which to test current models for human dispersal in the region. © 2007 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA.

Twenty-two novel microsatellite loci for lumpfish (Cyclopterus lumpus)

Lumpfish (Cyclopterus lumpus L. 1758) are widely distributed on both sides of the North Atlantic. They are a commercially important species, but stock size estimates have declined since the mid-1980s in Canada, Norway and Iceland. Little is known about the biology of this species, in particular the breeding migrations and population structure which are fundamental for effective management. This paper describes the development and characterization of twenty-two polymorphic microsatellite loci using next generation sequencing. The number of alleles per locus ranged from 3 to 27 in two geographically distant North Atlantic populations, with observed and expected heterozygosities ranging between 0. 0625-0. 979 and 0. 0618-0. 946, respectively. These loci are an important resource that will allow assessment of the population genetic structure of this species, and contribute to its appropriate management.

Neolithic and Bronze age migration to Ireland and establishment of the insular Atlantic genome

The Neolithic and Bronze Age transitions were profound cultural shifts catalyzed in parts of Europe by migrations, first of early farmers from the Near East and then Bronze Age herders from the Pontic Steppe. However, a decades-long, unresolved controversy is whether population change or cultural adoption occurred at the Atlantic edge, within the British Isles. We address this issue by using the first whole genome data from prehistoric Irish individuals. A Neolithic woman (3343–3020 cal BC) from a megalithic burial (10.3× coverage) possessed a genome of predominantly Near Eastern origin. She had some hunter–gatherer ancestry but belonged to a population of large effective size, suggesting a substantial influx of early farmers to the island. Three Bronze Age individuals from Rathlin Island (2026–1534 cal BC), including one high coverage (10.5×) genome, showed substantial Steppe genetic heritage indicating that the European population upheavals of the third millennium manifested all of the way from southern Siberia to the western ocean. This turnover invites the possibility of accompanying introduction of Indo-European, perhaps early Celtic, language. Irish Bronze Age haplotypic similarity is strongest within modern Irish, Scottish, and Welsh populations, and several important genetic variants that today show maximal or very high frequencies in Ireland appear at this horizon. These include those coding for lactase persistence, blue eye color, Y chromosome R1b haplotypes, and the hemochromatosis C282Y allele; to our knowledge, the first detection of a known Mendelian disease variant in prehistory. These findings together suggest the establishment of central attributes of the Irish genome 4,000 y ago.

The analysis of political will and its role in leadership: a study of portuguese mayors

This thesis analyses the concept of Political Will, suggests its operationalization and establishes a typological theory that provides the necessary support for the diverse strategies of action of a leader. It claims that political leadership styles articulate a choice of action that results from the Political Will of a leader, which is determined by his intention and his discerned possibilities to act. One main research question guided our research: How does a political leader select and change his leadership style? The most illustrative literature on political leadership is reviewed and the characteristics of democratic governance are analyzed. This is followed by an overview of the most noteworthy theories on the theme and a claim for the need of concept coherence, given the multiplicity of the existent standpoints. After that, we concentrate on leadership styles, with a focus on the local governance context. Human action and intentionality are addressed with particular attention, as well as the motivational drivers for action, in order to advance a conceptualization of Political Will through two dimensions: intention and possibility. This analysis led to a number of relevant propositions: (1) Political Will ‘exists’ when the agent has the intent and the possibility to act; (2) these two dimensions ‘translate’ simultaneously what the agent believes he must do and can do; (3) Intention and possibility reflect diverse but limited worldviews; (4) political leadership styles result from the agent’s Political Will; (5) different combinations of the expected and actual worldviews result in different leadership styles; and (6) political leadership styles can change accordingly to several strategies which allow conformity or reflect reaction to worldviews. We suggested the operationalization of the two dimensions of Political Will through the analytical tool of Grid-group Theory, which provided the identification of the heuristic devices that allowed further comprehension on the subjectivity of the agent’s choice. Four standard property spaces – representing four types of leadership styles – result from a preliminary approach to this process. Afterwards, and because these dimensions operate simultaneously, we advance on the analysis and suggest some plausible heuristical conflicts to happen and describe which consequences, strategies and type migrations are conceivable. An inclusive and more complete set of resulting property spaces renders fourteen different types of leadership styles and sixty different predictable causal paths that result from the expected migration strategies. Case-studies were conducted as plausibility probes designed to provide improvements to our theoretical claims and addressed the cases we selected for research purposes: Portuguese Mayors. The findings from five case studies are discussed and the probable impact and congruence of each with the theoretical claims are assessed. The communalities of the causal mechanisms related to the function of intention and possibility as the dimensions of Political Will and their role in explaining different leadership styles are, finally, addressed. To conclude, we advance some repercussions, mainly in the public policies field of research, and suggest a number of different and necessary paths for further work.

Présence et impacts des nouvelles technologies sur les phénomènes migratoires : le cas des nouveaux immigrants argentins à Sherbrooke

À travers la littérature théorique sur le sujet, nous avons pu remarquer que pendant les dernières années, le processus migratoire a subi des changements : le nombre de migrations internationales a augmenté et les flux migratoires ont privilegié des directions nouvelles. En même temps, grâce au développement accélére des nouvelles technologies de l'information et de la communication (TIC) et à la baisse de leurs coûts, les caractéristiques de la migration ont été modifiées : les pratiques de communication transnationales sont devenues facilement accessibles et plus fréquentes. Les TIC ont mis au service des migrants de nouveaux circuits pour communiquer et ont introduit des changements dans la façon de le faire. Le discours transmis au moyen des TIC n'est pas limité au récit d'événements : il est composé par des expressions d'émotions, d'états d'âme récents, des sensations, qui permettent de rapprocher les territoires, et même de les unifier, donnant l'image d'une présence connectée. Ce lointain devenu accessible par les TIC crée un espace social de présences simultanées, ou plutôt de coprésences, défini par une forte interaction qui a remplacé aujourd'hui le sentiment ancien de double absence (n'être plus là et pas encore ici). L'ancienne image du migrant déraciné s'est vue remplacée par celle d'un migrant qui circule en gardant le contact avec son pays d'origine. Ce nouveau modèle, celui du migrant connecté, est caracterisé par l'hypermobilité et la multiappartenance qui l'installent dans une mobilité perçue, de nos jours, comme positive. L'usage répandu des nouvelles technologies a permis l'expression d'une culture du lien (jusqu'ici existante à l'état latent et peu développée), axée sur la création de réseaux. Les réseaux pourraient occuper une importance majeure dans le processus d'intégration à un nouveau territoire, dans la participation à la vie associative ainsi que dans la conservation de la mémoire identitaire. Notre cadre théorique est constitué par la littérature sur le sujet et nous allons nous appuyer sur une recherche de terrain pour constater à quel degré un groupe précis, celui des immigrants argentins à Sherbrooke, se sert des TIC dans son vécu migratoire et de quelle manière cet usage peut avoir une influence sur son intégration au pays d'accueil.

Population dynamics and fisheries assessment of the bigeye thresher (Alopias superciliosus) in the Atlantic: a comparison between North Atlantic and South Atlantic stocks

Tese de doutoramento, Ciências do Mar, da Terra e do Ambiente (Biologia Pesqueira), Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2015

Long-term seasonal changes in the abundance of Dendrodoris nudibranchs: a five-year survey

Dissertação de mestrado, Biologia Marinha, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2015

Migrações, geografia escolar e educação para a cidadania

Relatório da prática de ensino supervisionada, Mestrado em Ensino da História e da Geografia, Universidade de Lisboa, 2011

Biology and ecology of the white prawn Palaemon longirostris H. Milne Edwards, 1837 (Crustacea, Decapoda, Palaemonidae) in the Mira River, Portugal

Tese de doutoramento, Biologia (Ecografia), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2014

Migrações : novas realidades : viver num mundo em movimento

Supervisionada, Educação (Mestrado em Ensino de História e Geografia no 3º Ciclo do Ensino Básico e Ensino Secundário), Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto de Educação, 2014