Analysis and estimative of schistosomiasis prevalence for the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, using multiple regression with social and environmental spatial data

The aim of this work is to establish a relationship between schistosomiasis prevalence and social-environmental variables, in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, through multiple linear regression. The final regression model was established, after a variables selection phase, with a set of spatial variables which contains the summer minimum temperature, human development index, and vegetation type variables. Based on this model, a schistosomiasis risk map was built for Minas Gerais.

Validation of Logistic Regression Models for Landslide Susceptibility Maps

A wide range of numerical models and tools have been developed over the last decades to support the decision making process in environmental applications, ranging from physical models to a variety of statistically-based methods. In this study, a landslide susceptibility map of a part of Three Gorges Reservoir region of China was produced, employing binary logistic regression analyses. The available information includes the digital elevation model of the region, geological map and different GIS layers including land cover data obtained from satellite imagery. The landslides were observed and documented during the field studies. The validation analysis is exploited to investigate the quality of mapping.

Time-series regression models to study the short-term effects of environmental factors on health

Time series regression models are especially suitable in epidemiology for evaluating short-term effects of time-varying exposures on health. The problem is that potential for confounding in time series regression is very high. Thus, it is important that trend and seasonality are properly accounted for. Our paper reviews the statistical models commonly used in time-series regression methods, specially allowing for serial correlation, make them potentially useful for selected epidemiological purposes. In particular, we discuss the use of time-series regression for counts using a wide range Generalised Linear Models as well as Generalised Additive Models. In addition, recently critical points in using statistical software for GAM were stressed, and reanalyses of time series data on air pollution and health were performed in order to update already published. Applications are offered through an example on the relationship between asthma emergency admissions and photochemical air pollutants

Statistical treatment of grain-size curves and empirical distributions: densities as compositions?

The preceding two editions of CoDaWork included talks on the possible considerationof densities as infinite compositions: Egozcue and D´ıaz-Barrero (2003) extended theEuclidean structure of the simplex to a Hilbert space structure of the set of densitieswithin a bounded interval, and van den Boogaart (2005) generalized this to the setof densities bounded by an arbitrary reference density. From the many variations ofthe Hilbert structures available, we work with three cases. For bounded variables, abasis derived from Legendre polynomials is used. For variables with a lower bound, westandardize them with respect to an exponential distribution and express their densitiesas coordinates in a basis derived from Laguerre polynomials. Finally, for unboundedvariables, a normal distribution is used as reference, and coordinates are obtained withrespect to a Hermite-polynomials-based basis.To get the coordinates, several approaches can be considered. A numerical accuracyproblem occurs if one estimates the coordinates directly by using discretized scalarproducts. Thus we propose to use a weighted linear regression approach, where all k-order polynomials are used as predictand variables and weights are proportional to thereference density. Finally, for the case of 2-order Hermite polinomials (normal reference)and 1-order Laguerre polinomials (exponential), one can also derive the coordinatesfrom their relationships to the classical mean and variance.Apart of these theoretical issues, this contribution focuses on the application of thistheory to two main problems in sedimentary geology: the comparison of several grainsize distributions, and the comparison among different rocks of the empirical distribution of a property measured on a batch of individual grains from the same rock orsediment, like their composition

Robust regression in biological assay: application to the evaluation of alternative experimental techniques.

Robust Huber type regression and testing of linear hypotheses are adapted to statistical analysis of parallel line and slope ratio assays. They are applied in the evaluation of results of several experiments carried out in order to compare and validate alternatives to animal experimentation based on embryo and cell cultures. Computational procedures necessary for the application of robust methods of analysis used the conversational statistical package ROBSYS. Special commands for the analysis of parallel line and slope ratio assays have been added to ROBSYS.

A Log-linear model of grain size influence on the geochemistry of sediments

Sediment composition is mainly controlled by the nature of the source rock(s), and chemical (weathering) and physical processes (mechanical crushing, abrasion, hydrodynamic sorting) during alteration and transport. Although the factors controlling these processes are conceptually well understood, detailed quantification of compositional changes induced by a single process are rare, as are examples where the effects of several processes can be distinguished. The present study was designed to characterize the role of mechanical crushing and sorting in the absence of chemical weathering. Twenty sediment samples were taken from Alpine glaciers that erode almost pure granitoid lithologies. For each sample, 11 grain-size fractions from granules to clay (ø grades &-1 to &9) were separated, and each fraction was analysed for its chemical composition.The presence of clear steps in the box-plots of all parts (in adequate ilr and clr scales) against ø is assumed to be explained by typical crystal size ranges for the relevant mineral phases. These scatter plots and the biplot suggest a splitting of the full grain size range into three groups: coarser than ø=4 (comparatively rich in SiO2, Na2O, K2O, Al2O3, and dominated by “felsic” minerals like quartz and feldspar), finer than ø=8 (comparatively rich in TiO2, MnO, MgO, Fe2O3, mostly related to “mafic” sheet silicates like biotite and chlorite), and intermediate grains sizes (4≤ø &8; comparatively rich in P2O5 and CaO, related to apatite, some feldspar).To further test the absence of chemical weathering, the observed compositions were regressed against three explanatory variables: a trend on grain size in ø scale, a step function for ø≥4, and another for ø≥8. The original hypothesis was that the trend could be identified with weathering effects, whereas each step function would highlight those minerals with biggest characteristic size at its lower end. Results suggest that this assumption is reasonable for the step function, but that besides weathering some other factors (different mechanical behavior of minerals) have also an important contribution to the trend.Key words: sediment, geochemistry, grain size, regression, step function

Lifelong dynamics of human CD4+CD25+ regulatory T cells: insights from in vivo data and mathematical modeling.

Despite their limited proliferation capacity, regulatory T cells (T(regs)) constitute a population maintained over the entire lifetime of a human organism. The means by which T(regs) sustain a stable pool in vivo are controversial. Using a mathematical model, we address this issue by evaluating several biological scenarios of the origins and the proliferation capacity of two subsets of T(regs): precursor CD4(+)CD25(+)CD45RO(-) and mature CD4(+)CD25(+)CD45RO(+) cells. The lifelong dynamics of T(regs) are described by a set of ordinary differential equations, driven by a stochastic process representing the major immune reactions involving these cells. The model dynamics are validated using data from human donors of different ages. Analysis of the data led to the identification of two properties of the dynamics: (1) the equilibrium in the CD4(+)CD25(+)FoxP3(+)T(regs) population is maintained over both precursor and mature T(regs) pools together, and (2) the ratio between precursor and mature T(regs) is inverted in the early years of adulthood. Then, using the model, we identified three biologically relevant scenarios that have the above properties: (1) the unique source of mature T(regs) is the antigen-driven differentiation of precursors that acquire the mature profile in the periphery and the proliferation of T(regs) is essential for the development and the maintenance of the pool; there exist other sources of mature T(regs), such as (2) a homeostatic density-dependent regulation or (3) thymus- or effector-derived T(regs), and in both cases, antigen-induced proliferation is not necessary for the development of a stable pool of T(regs). This is the first time that a mathematical model built to describe the in vivo dynamics of regulatory T cells is validated using human data. The application of this model provides an invaluable tool in estimating the amount of regulatory T cells as a function of time in the blood of patients that received a solid organ transplant or are suffering from an autoimmune disease.

Parenteral is more efficient than mucosal immunization to induce regression of human papillomavirus-associated genital tumors.

Cervical cancer is a public health concern as it represents the second cause of cancer death in women worldwide. High-risk human papillomaviruses (HPV) are the etiologic agents, and HPV E6 and/or E7 oncogene-specific therapeutic vaccines are under development to treat HPV-related lesions in women. Whether the use of mucosal routes of immunization may be preferable for inducing cell-mediated immune responses able to eradicate genital tumors is still debated because of the uniqueness of the female genital mucosa (GM) and the limited experimentation. Here, we compared the protective activity resulting from immunization of mice via intranasal (i.n.), intravaginal (IVAG) or subcutaneous (s.c.) routes with an adjuvanted HPV type 16 E7 polypeptide vaccine. Our data show that s.c. and i.n. immunizations elicited similar frequencies and avidity of TetE71CD81 and E7-specific Interferon-gamma-secreting cells in the GM, whereas slightly lower immune responses were induced by IVAG immunization. In a novel orthotopic murine model, both s.c. and i.n. immunizations allowed for complete long-term protection against genital E7-expressing tumor challenge. However, only s.c. immunization induced complete regression of already established genital tumors. This suggests that the higher E7-specific systemic response observed after s.c. immunization may contribute to the regression of growing genital tumors, whereas local immune responses may be sufficient to impede genital challenges. Thus, our data show that for an efficiently adjuvanted protein-based vaccine, parenteral vaccination route is superior to mucosal vaccination route for inducing regression of established genital tumors in a murine model of HPV-associated genital cancer.

La perception de la productivité dans l'industrie hôtelière de luxe : le cas de la Suisse romande

La perception de la productivité SUMMARY The main objective of this thesis is the perception of the productivity in the luxury hospitality industry. Despite a lot of efforts which were already made in the field of the production of goods, this concept (productivity) still remains to be defined in the services sector, more still, in that of the luxury hospitality industry. Since the object of this study is the perception of productivity, we decided to analyze the elements considered to be relevant by the top management in this field. Then, it seemed important to evaluate these same elements for the categories of middle-management and by the in-line employees. As perception is not static, it is dependent in an indirect way on its improvement and however also with the means of improvement. The assumption of our work evokes the possible relationship between productivity and its perception (P), (Q) quality and profitability (R). On this basis we built the P-Q-R model: R=F(P,Q) Finally, our research on this model enabled us to establish a mathematical relation between the three predetermined elements: fR=fP+fQ+c That means that the function efficiency of a process of services -(fR) is the sum of its quality function (intrinsic and extrinsic)-(fP) and of its productivity function - fQ (and the constant of regression "c"). To increase the profitability of the most significant manner, it is necessary to increase at the same time the productivity and quality. On the other hand, according to this formula but also according to the perception of the managers, with a constant profitability, either the productivity decreases in favor of the increase in quality, or the reverse. If the dimensions of the model influence positively or negatively the production process of services, then those wí11 influence in same manner our model (P, Q, R). We advance a point of view saying that profitability depends on the labor productivity which follows same dynamics than the perception of the productivity. The identification of the labor productivity as an essential element of successful management of the hotel is fundamental. The question which always remains in suspense is however the relevance of the concept "labor productivity" for the luxury hospitality industry. It was not proven an obvious correlation between this notion and the one of profitability. We still remain at the stage of perception. It results that one interesting way of future research will be the study of this correlation. As in any kind of luxury industry, the real added value does not consist in the volume produced or in the speed with which the product/service is carried out but in the creativity involved in their results. Let us note that the field of luxury is extremely related to the emotions and to the experience provided to the customers. La perception de la productivité... RÉSUME L'objectif principal de cette thèse est la perception de la productivité dans l'hôtellerie de luxe. Malgré tous les efforts qui ont déjà été faits dans le domaine de la production de biens, ce concept (productivité) reste encore à définir dans le secteur des services, plus encore, dans celui de l'hôtellerie de luxe. Étant donné que l'objet de l'étude est la perception de la productivité, nous avons décidé d'analyser les éléments jugés pertinents par les cadres dirigeants dans ce domaine. Puis, il nous a semblé important d'évaluer ces mêmes éléments pour les catégories de cadres moyens et par les employés in-line. Comme la perception n'est pas statique, elle est liée d'une manière indirecte à son amélioration et cependant également aux moyens d'amélioration. L'hypothèse de notre travail évoque la possible relation entre la productivité et sa perception (P), la qualité (Q) et la rentabilité (R). Sur cette base nous avons construit le modèle P-Q-R de départ R=f(P,Q) Finalement, notre recherche sur ce modèle nous a permis d'établir une relation mathématique entre les trois construits prédéterminés: fR=fP+fQ+c Cela signifie que la fonction rentabilité d'un processus de services -(fR) est la somme de sa fonction qualité (intrinsèque et extrinsèque)-fP et de sa fonction productivité -fQ (plus la constante de régression « c ») Pour augmenter la rentabilité de la manière la plus significative, il faut augmenter en même temps la productivité et la qualité. En revanche, selon cette formule mais selon aussi la perception des managers, à une rentabilité constante, soit la productivité diminue en faveur de l'augmentation de la qualité, soit l'inverse. Si les dimensions du modèle influencent positivement ou négativement le processus de production de services, alors celles-ci vont influencer de la même manière les construits de notre modèle (P, Q, R). Nous avançons un point de vue disant que la rentabilité dépend de la productivité du travail qui suit la même dynamique que la perception de la productivité. L'identification de la productivité du travail comme élément essentiel de gestion réussie de l'hôtel s'avère fondamentale. La question qui reste toujours en suspens est pourtant la pertinence de la notion «productivité du travail » pour l'industrie hôtelière de luxe. Il n'a pas été prouvé une corrélation évidente entre cette notion et celle de la profitabilité. Nous restons donc ici encore au stade de perception. Il en résulte que l'une des voies les plus intéressantes de recherche future sera l'étude de cette corrélation. Comme dans toute industrie de luxe, la vraie valeur ajoutée ne consiste pas toujours dans le volume produit, ni dans la vitesse avec laquelle le produit/service est réalisé, mais parfois dans la créativité emmagasinée dans ces résultats. Notons que le domaine de luxe est extrêmement lié aux émotions et à l'expérience fournie aux clients.

Mathematical modeling and analysis of the interaction of populations of bacteria and bacteriophages within chicken intestine

Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document de l'arxiu adjunt

Characteristics and effectiveness of diabetes self-management educational programs targeted to racial/ethnic minority groups: a systematic review, meta-analysis and meta-regression.

BACKGROUND It is not clear to what extent educational programs aimed at promoting diabetes self-management in ethnic minority groups are effective. The aim of this work was to systematically review the effectiveness of educational programs to promote the self-management of racial/ethnic minority groups with type 2 diabetes, and to identify programs' characteristics associated with greater success. METHODS We undertook a systematic literature review. Specific searches were designed and implemented for Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL, ISI Web of Knowledge, Scirus, Current Contents and nine additional sources (from inception to October 2012). We included experimental and quasi-experimental studies assessing the impact of educational programs targeted to racial/ethnic minority groups with type 2 diabetes. We only included interventions conducted in countries members of the OECD. Two reviewers independently screened citations. Structured forms were used to extract information on intervention characteristics, effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness. When possible, we conducted random-effects meta-analyses using standardized mean differences to obtain aggregate estimates of effect size with 95% confidence intervals. Two reviewers independently extracted all the information and critically appraised the studies. RESULTS We identified thirty-seven studies reporting on thirty-nine educational programs. Most of them were conducted in the US, with African American or Latino participants. Most programs obtained some benefits over standard care in improving diabetes knowledge, self-management behaviors and clinical outcomes. A meta-analysis of 20 randomized controlled trials (3,094 patients) indicated that the programs produced a reduction in glycated hemoglobin of -0.31% (95% CI -0.48% to -0.14%). Diabetes knowledge and self-management measures were too heterogeneous to pool. Meta-regressions showed larger reduction in glycated hemoglobin in individual and face to face delivered interventions, as well as in those involving peer educators, including cognitive reframing techniques, and a lower number of teaching methods. The long-term effects remain unknown and cost-effectiveness was rarely estimated. CONCLUSIONS Diabetes self-management educational programs targeted to racial/ethnic minority groups can produce a positive effect on diabetes knowledge and on self-management behavior, ultimately improving glycemic control. Future programs should take into account the key characteristics identified in this review.