Longitudinal localization of tropical intraseasonal variability

Intraseasonal time-scales play an important role in tropical variability. Two modes that contribute significantly to tropical intraseasonal variability (ISV) are the eastward-propagating MaddenJulian Oscillation (MJO), and westward-moving moist equatorial Rossby waves. This note reports on a correspondence between the longitudinal gradient of mean tropical precipitable water (PW), and the geographical regions of genesis, and convective activity, of both these large-scale tropical systems. Our finding is based on an analysis of PW from the MERRA reanalysis product. The data indicate that the mean tropical PW has a dominant wavenumber two (three) structure in longitude in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere. Departures from a longitudinally homogeneous state are attributed to the influence of subtropical anticyclones, and are accentuated by monsoonal regions of both hemispheres. This mean structure results in a sharply localized longitudinal gradient of PW. Remarkably, regions with positive gradients (such as the Northern and Southern Hemisphere western Indian Ocean), i.e. they have larger PW to the east, are the very zones that are implicated in the formation, and show high levels of convective activity, of the eastward-moving MJO. On the other hand, regions with negative gradients (such as the Southern Hemisphere central Pacific) are the very regions where genesis, and maxima in variance, of westward-moving moist equatorial Rossby waves are known to occur. Apart from providing a first-order longitudinal footprint of the convective phase of these systems, this correspondence reinforces the role of the mean climatic state in tropical ISV. Copyright (c) 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

Cannabis use and involuntary admission may mediate long-term adherence in first-episode psychosis patients: a prospective longitudinal study

Background: This study aimed to examine factors associated with treatment adherence in first-episode psychosis (FEP) patients followed up over 8 years, especially involuntary first admission and stopping cannabis use. Methods: This prospective, longitudinal study of FEP patients collected data on symptoms, adherence, functioning,and substance use. Adherence to treatment was the main outcome variable and was categorized as ‘good’ or ‘bad’. Cannabis use during follow-up was stratified as continued use, stopped use, and never used. Bivariate and logistic regression models identified factors significantly associated with adherence and changes in adherence over the 8-year follow-up period. Results: Of the 98 FEP patients analyzed at baseline, 57.1% had involuntary first admission, 74.4% bad adherence,and 52% cannabis use. Good adherence at baseline was associated with Global Assessment of Functioning score (p = 0.019), Hamilton Depression Rating Scale score (p = 0.017) and voluntary admission (p < 0.001). Adherence patterns over 8 years included: 43.4% patients always bad, 26.1% always good, 25% improved from bad to good. Among the improved adherence group, 95.7% had involuntary first admission and 38.9% stopped cannabis use. In the subgroup of patients with bad adherence at baseline, involuntary first admission and quitting cannabis use during follow up were associated with improved adherence. Conclusions: The long-term association between treatment adherence and type of first admission and cannabis use in FEP patients suggest targets for intervention to improve clinical outcomes.

Frictional properties of faults : from observation on the Longitudinal Valley Fault, Taiwan, to dynamic simulations

Faults can slip either aseismically or through episodic seismic ruptures, but we still do not understand the factors which determine the partitioning between these two modes of slip. This challenge can now be addressed thanks to the dense set of geodetic and seismological networks that have been deployed in various areas with active tectonics. The data from such networks, as well as modern remote sensing techniques, indeed allow documenting of the spatial and temporal variability of slip mode and give some insight. This is the approach taken in this study, which is focused on the Longitudinal Valley Fault (LVF) in Eastern Taiwan. This fault is particularly appropriate since the very fast slip rate (about 5 cm/yr) is accommodated by both seismic and aseismic slip. Deformation of anthropogenic features shows that aseismic creep accounts for a significant fraction of fault slip near the surface, but this fault also released energy seismically, since it has produced five M_w>6.8 earthquakes in 1951 and 2003. Moreover, owing to the thrust component of slip, the fault zone is exhumed which allows investigation of deformation mechanisms. In order to put constraint on the factors that control the mode of slip, we apply a multidisciplinary approach that combines modeling of geodetic observations, structural analysis and numerical simulation of the "seismic cycle". Analyzing a dense set of geodetic and seismological data across the Longitudinal Valley, including campaign-mode GPS, continuous GPS (cGPS), leveling, accelerometric, and InSAR data, we document the partitioning between seismic and aseismic slip on the fault. For the time period 1992 to 2011, we found that about 80-90% of slip on the LVF in the 0-26 km seismogenic depth range is actually aseismic. The clay-rich Lichi M\'elange is identified as the key factor promoting creep at shallow depth. Microstructural investigations show that deformation within the fault zone must have resulted from a combination of frictional sliding at grain boundaries, cataclasis and pressure solution creep. Numerical modeling of earthquake sequences have been performed to investigate the possibility of reproducing the results from the kinematic inversion of geodetic and seismological data on the LVF. We first investigate the different modeling strategy that was developed to explore the role and relative importance of different factors on the manner in which slip accumulates on faults. We compare the results of quasi dynamic simulations and fully dynamic ones, and we conclude that ignoring the transient wave-mediated stress transfers would be inappropriate. We therefore carry on fully dynamic simulations and succeed in qualitatively reproducing the wide range of observations for the southern segment of the LVF. We conclude that the spatio-temporal evolution of fault slip on the Longitudinal Valley Fault over 1997-2011 is consistent to first order with prediction from a simple model in which a velocity-weakening patch is embedded in a velocity-strengthening area.

Fala materna em cenários comunicativos específicos e o desenvolvimento da linguagem: um estudo longitudinal

O contato com membros de sua comunidade lingüística desde os primeiros dias de vida da criança é de fundamental importância para que ela desenvolva a linguagem. Assumindo a perspectiva sociopragmática, as interações lingüísticas mãe-bebê podem ser consideradas como uma das bases fundamentais do desenvolvimento da linguagem. Pressupondo que a fala materna tem um papel fundamental no processo de desenvolvimento lingüístico infantil, este estudo longitudinal teve como proposta analisar a fala materna e o desenvolvimento lingüístico infantil em cenários comunicativos específicos (atencional, convencional e simbólico). Aspectos sintáticos e semânticos da fala materna foram analisados e a trajetória desses cenários comunicativos ao longo do desenvolvimento foi identificada. Quatro díades mães-bebê (dois meninos e duas meninas) foram filmadas em suas residências dos 13 aos 24 meses da criança. A fala da mãe foi analisada e transcrita. A compreensão e a produção do vocabulário da criança foram medidas pelo MacArthur Inventary of Communicative Abilities (Inventário do Desenvolvimento de Habilidades Comunicativas). A partir dos resultados, semelhanças e diferenças entre as díades foram observadas. Identificou-se um predomínio na percentagem de sentenças maternas afirmativas ao longo do período estudado para as quatro díades. Apesar de apresentarem tendências de trajetórias específicas, as sentenças negativas foram o tipo de sentença menos utilizado pelas mães. Identificou-se, em todas as díades, uma tendência de trajetória linear positiva para fala materna relacionada ao contexto. Constatou-se, também, um aumento significativo de palavras compreendidas e produzidas pela criança ao longo do período e que os substantivos prevaleceram no vocabulário infantil. A média de engajamento das díades nos cenários comunicativos específicos do estudo foi de 76% do tempo total de observação. Percebeu-se que há uma tendência do cenário comunicativo atencional diminuir ao longo do desenvolvimento e do cenário comunicativo simbólico aumentar sua percentagem de tempo. Entre todas as correlações encontradas, nas quatro díades, pode-se destacar que a idade da criança se correlacionou, positivamente, com o total de palavras compreendidas e produzidas pela criança; o total de palavras compreendidas pela criança se correlacionou, positivamente, com o total de palavras produzidas pela criança e a fala materna relacionada à criança se correlacionou, negativamente, com a fala materna relacionada ao contexto. Acredita-se que este estudo pode colaborar para o conhecimento acerca do desenvolvimento da linguagem infantil nos primeiros dois anos da ontogênese das crianças e traz uma contribuição para a literatura relativa à fala materna no desenvolvimento inicial, com dados do contexto brasileiro

Consumo alimentar e associação com ganho de peso em adolescente: Estudo Longitudinal de Avaliação Nutricional de Adolescentes (ELANA).

Essa tese teve como objetivo avaliar a associação do consumo de padrões alimentares e produtos alimentícios ultraprocessados (UP) sobre indicadores antropométricos e sua variação entre adolescentes. Para tal, foram analisados os dados de 1.031 estudantes de quatro escolas privadas e duas escolas públicas da região metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro que foram acompanhados por três anos consecutivos (2010 a 2012) no Estudo Longitudinal de Avaliação Nutricional de adolescentes (ELANA). Os resultados estão apresentados em três manuscritos que compõem a tese. O primeiro manuscrito identificou três padrões alimentares: Ocidental, composto por massas, embutidos e bacon, carnes, doces, bebidas açucaradas, salgados e fast food, biscoito, pães e cereais, leite e derivados e ovos, o Saudável, caracterizado por peixes, hortaliças, verduras, raízes e feculentos, frutas e sucos e o Arroz/Feijão, composto pelo consumo de arroz, feijão e café. Na análise dos dados na linha de base o padrão Ocidental associou-se a um menor índice de massa corporal (IMC) e não foi observada associação estatisticamente significativa em relação ao percentual de gordura corpórea (%GC) e o padrão em questão. Adicionalmente, foi verificada uma associação negativa entre o padrão Arroz/Feijão e ambos os indicadores antropométricos sugerindo que esse padrão de consumo tradicional possa ser protetor para a obesidade. No segundo manuscrito avaliou-se a relação entre o consumo de UP e indicadores de qualidade da dieta. O consumo de UP foi avaliado em gramas por dia e em gramas/total de calorias. Observou-se um aumento das variáveis marcadoras de alimentação não saudável e saudável com o aumento do consumo de UP. No entanto, quando relacionados ao aumento de consumo de UP/energia observou-se um aumento de marcadores de alimentação não saudável e, com exceção da vitamina C, uma redução de marcadores de alimentação saudável. Assim, a densidade do consumo de UP mostrou-se um bom indicador de qualidade da dieta entre adolescentes. No terceiro manuscrito avaliou-se a associação entre o consumo de UP e a evolução temporal do IMC e %GC. A análise longitudinal por modelos lineares mistos, que levam em conta todas as observações ao longo do tempo, indicou que nas análises não ajustados havia uma associação negativa entre consumo de UP e o IMC e %GC, porém nas análises de UP/energia e nas análises ajustadas por atividade física e uma variável de controle para a qualidade do relato não mais foram observadas associações com o consumo de UP e as medidas antropométricas de adiposidade. Pode-se concluir que não evidenciamos associação do consumo de UP com medidas antropométricas de obesidade uma vez que o consumo elevado de UP associado ao crescimento do %GC nas análises transversais, não se manteve nas análises longitudinais. A discrepância entre os achados dos estudos seccionais e os longitudinais pode decorrer de confundimento residual nos estudos seccionais. Conclui-se, que para redução do ganho excessivo de peso, orientações relativas exclusivamente a um padrão de alimentação saudável que incorpora a ideia de UP, devem ser acompanhadas de redução da quantidade de alimentos consumidos.

Consumo alimentar e associação com ganho de peso em adolescente: Estudo Longitudinal de Avaliação Nutricional de Adolescentes (ELANA).

Essa tese teve como objetivo avaliar a associação do consumo de padrões alimentares e produtos alimentícios ultraprocessados (UP) sobre indicadores antropométricos e sua variação entre adolescentes. Para tal, foram analisados os dados de 1.031 estudantes de quatro escolas privadas e duas escolas públicas da região metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro que foram acompanhados por três anos consecutivos (2010 a 2012) no Estudo Longitudinal de Avaliação Nutricional de adolescentes (ELANA). Os resultados estão apresentados em três manuscritos que compõem a tese. O primeiro manuscrito identificou três padrões alimentares: Ocidental, composto por massas, embutidos e bacon, carnes, doces, bebidas açucaradas, salgados e fast food, biscoito, pães e cereais, leite e derivados e ovos, o Saudável, caracterizado por peixes, hortaliças, verduras, raízes e feculentos, frutas e sucos e o Arroz/Feijão, composto pelo consumo de arroz, feijão e café. Na análise dos dados na linha de base o padrão Ocidental associou-se a um menor índice de massa corporal (IMC) e não foi observada associação estatisticamente significativa em relação ao percentual de gordura corpórea (%GC) e o padrão em questão. Adicionalmente, foi verificada uma associação negativa entre o padrão Arroz/Feijão e ambos os indicadores antropométricos sugerindo que esse padrão de consumo tradicional possa ser protetor para a obesidade. No segundo manuscrito avaliou-se a relação entre o consumo de UP e indicadores de qualidade da dieta. O consumo de UP foi avaliado em gramas por dia e em gramas/total de calorias. Observou-se um aumento das variáveis marcadoras de alimentação não saudável e saudável com o aumento do consumo de UP. No entanto, quando relacionados ao aumento de consumo de UP/energia observou-se um aumento de marcadores de alimentação não saudável e, com exceção da vitamina C, uma redução de marcadores de alimentação saudável. Assim, a densidade do consumo de UP mostrou-se um bom indicador de qualidade da dieta entre adolescentes. No terceiro manuscrito avaliou-se a associação entre o consumo de UP e a evolução temporal do IMC e %GC. A análise longitudinal por modelos lineares mistos, que levam em conta todas as observações ao longo do tempo, indicou que nas análises não ajustados havia uma associação negativa entre consumo de UP e o IMC e %GC, porém nas análises de UP/energia e nas análises ajustadas por atividade física e uma variável de controle para a qualidade do relato não mais foram observadas associações com o consumo de UP e as medidas antropométricas de adiposidade. Pode-se concluir que não evidenciamos associação do consumo de UP com medidas antropométricas de obesidade uma vez que o consumo elevado de UP associado ao crescimento do %GC nas análises transversais, não se manteve nas análises longitudinais. A discrepância entre os achados dos estudos seccionais e os longitudinais pode decorrer de confundimento residual nos estudos seccionais. Conclui-se, que para redução do ganho excessivo de peso, orientações relativas exclusivamente a um padrão de alimentação saudável que incorpora a ideia de UP, devem ser acompanhadas de redução da quantidade de alimentos consumidos.

The statistical properties of recreational catch rate data for some fish stocks off the northeast U.S. coast

Recreational fisheries in the waters off the northeast U.S. target a variety of pelagic and demersal fish species, and catch and effort data sampled from recreational fisheries are a critical component of the information used in resource evaluation and management. Standardized indices of stock abundance developed from recreational fishery catch rates are routinely used in stock assessments. The statistical properties of both simulated and empirical recreational fishery catch-rate data such as those collected by the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) Marine Recreational Fishery Statistics Survey (MRFSS) are examined, and the potential effects of different assumptions about the error structure of the catch-rate frequency distributions in computing indices of stock abundance are evaluated. Recreational fishery catch distributions sampled by the MRFSS are highly contagious and overdispersed in relation to the normal distribution and are generally best characterized by the Poisson or negative binomial distributions. The modeling of both the simulated and empirical MRFSS catch rates indicates that one may draw erroneous conclusions about stock trends by assuming the wrong error distribution in procedures used to developed standardized indices of stock abundance. The results demonstrate the importance of considering not only the overall model fit and significance of classification effects, but also the possible effects of model misspecification, when determining the most appropriate model construction.

Longitudinal logbook survey designs for estimating recreational fishery catch, with application to ayu (Plecoglossus altivelis)

Longitudinal surveys of anglers or boat owners are widely used in recreational fishery management to estimate total catch over a fishing season. Survey designs with repeated measures of the same random sample over time are effective if the goal is to show statistically significant differences among point estimates for successive time intervals. However, estimators for total catch over the season that are based on longitudinal sampling will be less precise than stratified estimators based on successive independent samples. Conventional stratified variance estimators would be negatively biased if applied to such data because the samples for different time strata are not independent. We formulated new general estimators for catch rate, total catch, and respective variances that sum across time strata but also account for correlation stratum samples. A case study of the Japanese recreational fishery for ayu (Plecoglossus altivelis) showed that the conventional stratified variance estimate of total catch was about 10% of the variance estimated by our new method. Combining the catch data for each angler or boat owners throughout the season reduced the variance of the total catch estimate by about 75%. For successive independent surveys based on random independent samples, catch, and variance estimators derived from combined data would be the same as conventional stratified estimators when sample allocation is proportional to strata size. We are the first to report annual catch estimates for ayu in a Japanese river by formulating modified estimators for day-permit anglers.

Multiple pitch estimation using non-homogeneous poisson processes

Novel statistical models are proposed and developed in this paper for automated multiple-pitch estimation problems. Point estimates of the parameters of partial frequencies of a musical note are modeled as realizations from a non-homogeneous Poisson process defined on the frequency axis. When several notes are combined, the processes for the individual notes combine to give a new Poisson process whose likelihood is easy to compute. This model avoids the data-association step of linking the harmonics of each note with the corresponding partials and is ideal for efficient Bayesian inference of unknown multiple fundamental frequencies in a signal. © 2011 IEEE.

Longitudinal prediction of the operational energy use of buildings

Thus far most studies of operational energy use of buildings fail to take a longitudinal view, or in other words, do not take into account how operational energy use changes during the lifetime of a building. However, such a view is important when predicting the impact of climate change, or for long term energy accounting purposes. This article presents an approach to deliver a longitudinal prediction of operational energy use. The work is based on the review of deterioration in thermal performance, building maintenance effects, and future climate change. The key issues are to estimate the service life expectancy and thermal performance degradation of building components while building maintenance and changing weather conditions are considered at the same time. Two examples are presented to demonstrate the application of the deterministic and stochastic approaches, respectively. The work concludes that longitudinal prediction of operational energy use is feasible, but the prediction will depend largely on the availability of extensive and reliable monitoring data. This premise is not met in most current buildings. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Longitudinal study of changes in body mass index, anthropometric measures, dietary intake and physical activity in cohorts of school-going Irish adolescents

The prevalence of obesity worldwide has increased dramatically over the last few decades. Poor dietary habits and low levels of exercise in adolescence are often maintained into adulthood where they can impact on the incidence of obesity and chronic diseases. A 3-year longitudinal study of anthropometric, dietary and exercise parameters was carried out annually (2005 - 2007) in 3 Irish secondary schools. Anthropometric measurements were taken in each year and analysed longitudinally. Overweight and obesity were at relatively low levels in these adolescents. Height, weight, BMI, waist and hip circumferences and TST increased significantly over the 3 years. Waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) decreased significantly over time. Boys were significantly taller than girls across the 3 years. A 3-day weighed food diary was used to assess food intake by the adolescents. Analysis of dietary intake data was determined using WISP©. Mean daily energy and nutrient intakes were reported. Mean daily energy and macronutrient intakes were analysed longitudinally. The adolescents’ diet was characterised by relatively high saturated fat intakes and insufficient fruit and vegetable consumption. The dietary pattern did not change significantly over the 3 years. Boys consumed more energy than girls over the study period. A validated questionnaire was used to assess physical activity and sedentary activity levels. Boys were substantially more active and had higher energy expenditure estimates than girls throughout the study. A significant longitudinal decrease in physical activity levels among the adolescents was observed. Both genders spent more than the recommended amount of time (hrs/day) pursing sedentary activities. The dietary pattern in these Irish adolescents is relatively poor. Of additional concern is the overall longitudinal decrease in physical activity levels. Promoting consumption of a balanced diet and increased exercise levels among adolescents will help to reduce future public health care costs due to weight-related diseases.

ITSM ProcessGuide – a longitudinal and multi-method field study for real-world DSR artifact evaluation

Process guidance supports users to increase their process model understanding, process execution effectiveness as well as efficiency, and process compliance performance. This paper presents a research in progress encompassing our ongoing DSR project on Process Guidance Systems and a field evaluation of the resulting artifact in cooperation with a company. Building on three theory-grounded design principles, a Process Guidance System artifact for the company’s IT service ticketing process is developed, deployed and used. Fol-lowing a multi-method approach, we plan to evaluate the artifact in a longitudinal field study. Thereby, we will not only gather self-reported but also real usage data. This article describes the development of the artifact and discusses an innovative evaluation approach.

Study abroad and complexity, accuracy and fluency (CAF) development: a longitudinal investigation of French and Chinese Learners of L2 English

This longitudinal study tracked third-level French (n=10) and Chinese (n=7) learners of English as a second language (L2) during an eight-month study abroad (SA) period at an Irish university. The investigation sought to determine whether there was a significant relationship between length of stay (LoS) abroad and gains in the learners' oral complexity, accuracy and fluency (CAF), what the relationship was between these three language constructs and whether the two learner groups would experience similar paths to development. Additionally, the study also investigated whether specific reported out-of-class contact with the L2 was implicated in oral CAF gains. Oral data were collected at three equidistant time points; at the beginning of SA (T1), midway through the SA sojourn (T2) and at the end (T3), allowing for a comparison of CAF gains arising during one semester abroad to those arising during a subsequent semester. Data were collected using Sociolinguistic Interviews (Labov, 1984) and adapted versions of the Language Contact Profile (Freed et al., 2004). Overall, the results point to LoS abroad as a highly influential variable in gains to be expected in oral CAF during SA. While one semester in the TL country was not enough to foster statistically significant improvement in any of the CAF measures employed, significant improvement was found during the second semester of SA. Significant differences were also revealed between the two learner groups. Finally, significant correlations, some positive, some negative, were found between gains in CAF and specific usage of the L2. All in all, the disaggregation of the group data clearly illustrates, in line with other recent enquiries (e.g. Wright and Cong, 2014) that each individual learner's path to CAF development was unique and highly individualised, thus providing strong evidence for the recent claim that SLA is "an individualized nonlinear endeavor" (Polat and Kim, 2014: 186).

A longitudinal study of epigenetic variation in twins.

DNA methylation is a key epigenetic mechanism involved in the developmental regulation of gene expression. Alterations in DNA methylation are established contributors to inter-individual phenotypic variation and have been associated with disease susceptibility. The degree to which changes in loci-specific DNA methylation are under the influence of heritable and environmental factors is largely unknown. In this study, we quantitatively measured DNA methylation across the promoter regions of the dopamine receptor 4 gene (DRD4), the serotonin transporter gene (SLC6A4/SERT) and the X-linked monoamine oxidase A gene (MAOA) using DNA sampled at both ages 5 and 10 years in 46 MZ twin-pairs and 45 DZ twin-pairs (total n=182). Our data suggest that DNA methylation differences are apparent already in early childhood, even between genetically identical individuals, and that individual differences in methylation are not stable over time. Our longitudinal-developmental study suggests that environmental influences are important factors accounting for interindividual DNA methylation differences, and that these influences differ across the genome. The observation of dynamic changes in DNA methylation over time highlights the importance of longitudinal research designs for epigenetic research.

Accounting for Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Symptom Severity With Pre- and Posttrauma Measures: A Longitudinal Study of Older Adults.

Using data from a longitudinal study of community-dwelling older adults, we analyzed the most extensive set of known correlates of PTSD symptoms obtained from a single sample to examine the measures' independent and combined utility in accounting for PTSD symptom severity. Fifteen measures identified as PTSD risk factors in published meta-analyses and 12 theoretically and empirically supported individual difference and health-related measures were included. Individual difference measures assessed after the trauma, including insecure attachment and factors related to the current trauma memory, such as self-rated severity, event centrality, frequency of involuntary recall, and physical reactions to the memory, accounted for symptom severity better than measures of pre-trauma factors. In an analysis restricted to prospective measures assessed before the trauma, the total variance explained decreased from 56% to 16%. Results support a model of PTSD in which characteristics of the current trauma memory promote the development and maintenance of PTSD symptoms.