Long-term drivers of broadband traffic in next-generation networks

This paper is concerned with long-term (20+ years) forecasting of broadband traffic in next-generation networks. Such long-term approach requires going beyond extrapolations of past traffic data while facing high uncertainty in predicting the future developments and facing the fact that, in 20 years, the current network technologies and architectures will be obsolete. Thus, "order of magnitude" upper bounds of upstream and downstream traffic are deemed to be good enough to facilitate such long-term forecasting. These bounds can be obtained by evaluating the limits of human sighting and assuming that these limits will be achieved by future services or, alternatively, by considering the contents transferred by bandwidth-demanding applications such as those using embedded interactive 3D video streaming. The traffic upper bounds are a good indication of the peak values and, subsequently, also of the future network capacity demands. Furthermore, the main drivers of traffic growth including multimedia as well as non-multimedia applications are identified. New disruptive applications and services are explored that can make good use of the large bandwidth provided by next-generation networks. The results can be used to identify monetization opportunities of future services and to map potential revenues for network operators. © 2014 The Author(s).

Arctic ecosystem responses to changes in water availability and warming: Short and long-term responses

Arctic soils store close to 14% of the global soil carbon. Most of arctic carbon is stored below ground in the permafrost. With climate warming the decomposition of the soil carbon could represent a significant positive feedback to global greenhouse warming. Recent evidence has shown that the temperature of the Arctic is already increasing, and this change is associated mostly with anthropogenic activities. Warmer soils will contribute to permafrost degradation and accelerate organic matter decay and thus increase the flux of carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere. Temperature and water availability are also important drivers of ecosystem performance, but effects can be complex and in opposition. Temperature and moisture changes can affect ecosystem respiration (ER) and gross primary productivity (GPP) independently; an increase in the net ecosystem exchange can be a result of either a decrease in ER or an increase in GPP. Therefore, understanding the effects of changes in ecosystem water and temperature on the carbon flux components becomes key to predicting the responses of the Arctic to climate change. The overall goal of this work was to determine the response of arctic systems to simulated climate change scenarios with simultaneous changes in temperature and moisture. A temperature and hydrological manipulation in a naturally-drained lakebed was used to assess the short-term effect of changes in water and temperature on the carbon cycle. Also, as part of International Tundra Experiment Network (ITEX), I determined the long-term effect of warming on the carbon cycle in a natural hydrological gradient established in the mid 90's. I found that the carbon balance is highly sensitive to short-term changes in water table and warming. However, over longer time periods, hydrological and temperature changed soil biophysical properties, nutrient cycles, and other ecosystem structural and functional components that down regulated GPP and ER, especially in wet areas.

The Roles of Large Top Predators in Coastal Ecosystems: New Insights from Long Term Ecological Research

During recent human history, human activities such as overhunting and habitat destruction have severely impacted many large top predator populations around the world. Studies from a variety of ecosystems show that loss or diminishment of top predator populations can have serious consequences for population and community dynamics and ecosystem stability. However, there are relatively few studies of the roles of large top predators in coastal ecosystems, so that we do not yet completely understand what could happen to coastal areas if large top predators are extirpated or significantly reduced in number. This lack of knowledge is surprising given that coastal areas around the globe are highly valued and densely populated by humans, and thus coastal large top predator populations frequently come into conflict with coastal human populations. This paper reviews what is known about the ecological roles of large top predators in coastal systems and presents a synthesis of recent work from three coastal eastern US Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) sites where long-term studies reveal what appear to be common themes relating to the roles of large top predators in coastal systems. We discuss three specific themes: (1) large top predators acting as mobile links between disparate habitats, (2) large top predators potentially affecting nutrient and biogeochemical dynamics through localized behaviors, and (3) individual specialization of large top predator behaviors. We also discuss how research within the LTER network has led to enhanced understanding of the ecological roles of coastal large top predators. Highlighting this work is intended to encourage further investigation of the roles of large top predators across diverse coastal aquatic habitats and to better inform researchers and ecosystem managers about the importance of large top predators for coastal ecosystem health and stability.

Conservation ecology of amphibians and reptiles in Sarapiqui, Costa Rica : forest fragmentation and long term population change

In order to explore the conservation ecology of frogs and lizards in the Sarapiqui region of Costa Rica, I compared populations and communities among forest fragments and La Selva Biological Station, as well as across 35 years of sampling at La Selva. Species richness in nine fragments combined was 85% of that found in La Selva, and community composition varied among sites and by fragment size class. Although communities in fragments differed fundamentally from those in intact forest, the high diversity observed across all fragments indicates that preserving a network of small forest patches may be of great conservation value to the herpetofauna of this region. According to data from past studies at La Selva, most common species of leaf-litter frogs and lizards demonstrated significant decreases in density over the 35-year period. My findings may represent either natural population fluctuations or sweeping faunal declines at this site.

Between adaptability and the urge to control: making long-term water policies in the Netherlands

Triggered by recent flood catastrophes and increasing concerns about climate change, scientists as well as policy makers increasingly call for making long-term water policies to enable a transformation towards flood resilience. A key question is how to make these long-term policies adaptive so that they are able to deal with uncertainties and changing circumstances. The paper proposes three conditions for making long-term water policies adaptive, which are then used to evaluate a new Dutch water policy approach called ‘Adaptive Delta Management’. Analysing this national policy approach and its translation to the Rotterdam region reveals that Dutch policymakers are torn between adaptability and the urge to control. Reflecting on this dilemma, the paper suggests a stronger focus on monitoring and learning to strengthen the adaptability of long-term water policies. Moreover, increasing the adaptive capacity of society also requires a stronger engagement with local stakeholders including citizens and businesses.

Climate change and the long-term viability of the World’s busiest heavy haul ice road

Climate models project that the northern high latitudes will warm at a rate in excess of the global mean. This will pose severe problems for Arctic and sub-Arctic infrastructure dependent on maintaining low temperatures for structural integrity. This is the case for the economically important Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road (TCWR)—the world’s busiest heavy haul ice road, spanning 400 km across mostly frozen lakes within the Northwest Territories of Canada. In this study, future climate scenarios are developed for the region using statistical downscaling methods. In addition, changes in lake ice thickness are projected based on historical relationships between measured ice thickness and air temperatures. These projections are used to infer the theoretical operational dates of the TCWR based on weight limits for trucks on the ice. Results across three climate models driven by four RCPs reveal a considerable warming trend over the coming decades. Projected changes in ice thickness reveal a trend towards thinner lake ice and a reduced time window when lake ice is at sufficient thickness to support trucks on the ice road, driven by increasing future temperatures. Given the uncertainties inherent in climate modelling and the resultant projections, caution should be exercised in interpreting the magnitude of these scenarios. More certain is the direction of change, with a clear trend towards winter warming that will reduce the operation time window of the TCWR. This illustrates the need for planners and policymakers to consider future changes in climate when planning annual haulage along the TCWR.

Identification of Microturbine Model for Long-term Dynamic Analysis of Distribution Networks

As one of the most successfully commercialized distributed energy resources, the long-term effects of microturbines (MTs) on the distribution network has not been fully investigated due to the complex thermo-fluid-mechanical energy conversion processes. This is further complicated by the fact that the parameter and internal data of MTs are not always available to the electric utility, due to different ownerships and confidentiality concerns. To address this issue, a general modeling approach for MTs is proposed in this paper, which allows for the long-term simulation of the distribution network with multiple MTs. First, the feasibility of deriving a simplified MT model for long-term dynamic analysis of the distribution network is discussed, based on the physical understanding of dynamic processes that occurred within MTs. Then a three-stage identification method is developed in order to obtain a piecewise MT model and predict electro-mechanical system behaviors with saturation. Next, assisted with the electric power flow calculation tool, a fast simulation methodology is proposed to evaluate the long-term impact of multiple MTs on the distribution network. Finally, the model is verified by using Capstone C30 microturbine experiments, and further applied to the dynamic simulation of a modified IEEE 37-node test feeder with promising results.

An Assessment of How Nurse Practitioners Create Access to Primary Care in Canadian Residential Long-Term Care Settings

The aim of this paper is to explore the role and activities of nurse practitioners (NPs) working in long-term care (LTC) to understand concepts of access to primary care for residents. Utilizing the "FIT" framework developed by Penchanksy and Thomas, we used a directed content analysis method to analyze data from a pan-Canadian study of NPs in LTC. Individual and focus group interviews were conducted at four sites in western, central and eastern regions of Canada with 143 participants, including NPs, RNs, regulated and unregulated nursing staff, allied health professionals, physicians, administrators and directors and residents and family members. Participants emphasized how the availability and accessibility of the NP had an impact on access to primary and urgent care for residents. Understanding more about how NPs affect access in Canadian LTC will be valuable for nursing practice and healthcare planning and policy and may assist other countries in planning for the introduction of NPs in LTC settings to increase access to primary care.

Long-term fish community response to a reach-scale stream restoration

At a global scale, aquatic ecosystems are being altered by human activities at a greater rate than at any other time in history. In recent years, grassroots efforts have generated interest in the restoration of degraded or destroyed aquatic habitats, especially small wetlands and streams where such projects are feasible with local resources. We present ecological management lessons learned from 17 years of monitoring the fish community response to the channel relocation and reach-level restoration of Juday Creek, a 3rd-order tributary of the St. Joseph River in Indiana, USA. The project was designed to increase habitat complexity, reverse the effects of accumulated fine sediment (< 2 mm diameter), and mitigate for the impacts of a new golf course development. The 1997 restoration consisted of new channel construction within two reaches of a 1.2-km section of Juday Creek that also contained two control reaches. A primary social goal of the golf course development and stream restoration was to avoid harm to the non-native brown trout fishery, as symbolic of community concerns for the watershed. Our long-term monitoring effort revealed that, although fine sediment increased over time in the restored reaches, habitat conditions have promoted the resurgence of native fish species. Since restoration, the fish assemblage has shifted from non-native Salmonidae (brown trout, rainbow trout) to native Centrarchidae (rock bass, largemouth bass, smallmouth bass). In addition, native, nongame species have remained stable or have increased in population abundance (e.g., Johnny darter, mottled sculpin). The results of this study demonstrate the value of learning from a restoration project to adjust management decisions that enhance environmental quality.

DYNAMICS OF THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM AVIAN DISTRIBUTIONS IN NORTH AMERICA - THE ROLES OF VEGETATION HEIGHT HETEROGENEITY AND CLIMATIC FACTORS

Understanding how biodiversity spatially distribute over both the short term and long term, and what factors are affecting the distribution, are critical for modeling the spatial pattern of biodiversity as well as for promoting effective conservation planning and practices. This dissertation aims to examine factors that influence short-term and long-term avian distribution from the geographical sciences perspective. The research develops landscape level habitat metrics to characterize forest height heterogeneity and examines their efficacies in modelling avian richness at the continental scale. Two types of novel vegetation-height-structured habitat metrics are created based on second order texture algorithms and the concepts of patch-based habitat metrics. I correlate the height-structured metrics with the richness of different forest guilds, and also examine their efficacies in multivariate richness models. The results suggest that height heterogeneity, beyond canopy height alone, supplements habitat characterization and richness models of two forest bird guilds. The metrics and models derived in this study demonstrate practical examples of utilizing three-dimensional vegetation data for improved characterization of spatial patterns in species richness. The second and the third projects focus on analyzing centroids of avian distributions, and testing hypotheses regarding the direction and speed of these shifts. I first showcase the usefulness of centroids analysis for characterizing the distribution changes of a few case study species. Applying the centroid method on 57 permanent resident bird species, I show that multi-directional distribution shifts occurred in large number of studied species. I also demonstrate, plain birds are not shifting their distribution faster than mountain birds, contrary to the prediction based on climate change velocity hypothesis. By modelling the abundance change rate at regional level, I show that extreme climate events and precipitation measures associate closely with some of the long-term distribution shifts. This dissertation improves our understanding on bird habitat characterization for species richness modelling, and expands our knowledge on how avian populations shifted their ranges in North America responding to changing environments in the past four decades. The results provide an important scientific foundation for more accurate predictive species distribution modeling in future.

SCOR WG 142: Quality Control Procedures for Oxygen and Other Biogeochemical Sensors on Floats and Gliders. Recommendation for oxygen measurements from Argo floats, implementation of in-air-measurement routine to assure highest long-term accuracy

Recommendation for Oxygen Measurements from Argo Floats: Implementation of In-Air-Measurement Routine to Assure Highest Long-term Accuracy As Argo has entered its second decade and chemical/biological sensor technology is improving constantly, the marine biogeochemistry community is starting to embrace the successful Argo float program. An augmentation of the global float observatory, however, has to follow rather stringent constraints regarding sensor characteristics as well as data processing and quality control routines. Owing to the fairly advanced state of oxygen sensor technology and the high scientific value of oceanic oxygen measurements (Gruber et al., 2010), an expansion of the Argo core mission to routine oxygen measurements is perhaps the most mature and promising candidate (Freeland et al., 2010). In this context, SCOR Working Group 142 “Quality Control Procedures for Oxygen and Other Biogeochemical Sensors on Floats and Gliders” (www.scor-int.org/SCOR_WGs_WG142.htm) set out in 2014 to assess the current status of biogeochemical sensor technology with particular emphasis on float-readiness, develop pre- and post-deployment quality control metrics and procedures for oxygen sensors, and to disseminate procedures widely to ensure rapid adoption in the community.

DNI Measurements in the South of Portugal: Long Term Results through Direct Comparison with Global and Diffuse Radiation Measurements and Existing Time Series

The present work describes the measurement effort for direct normal irradiance (DNI) evaluation in the sunny south of Portugal, with a network of eight radiation measurement stations in several locations (including Évora) providing a good coverage of the region. This new initiative for DNI measurement will still need many years (typically 10 or more) to produce a time series which can claim having long term statistical value. This problem can, however, be temporarily mitigated by measuring DNI at the same time as GHI and DHI, in a place where long term series dating back, already exist for those two. It so happens that a long term series (20 years) of global and diffuse solar irradiation exists for the location Évora. So the expectation is to establish correlations with the goal of attributing at least some long term statistical significance to the short and recent DNI series. The paper describes the setup of the measuring stations and presents the preliminary measurements obtained. It further presents the first correlations of monthly averages between normal beam (DNI), global and diffuse radiation. It then uses these correlations, admittedly without acceptable statistical significance (short series of less than one year of measured data), to exemplify how to get a prediction of long term DNI for Évora. This preliminary obtained value is compared to that predicted by the commercial data from Meteonorm.

Essays in Economic Geography and Long-Term Development

This dissertation has two main themes: first, the economic impact of tourism on cities and, secondly, the determinants of European long-run development, with a focus on the pre-Industrial era. The common thread is the attempt to develop economic geography models that incorporate spatial frictions and are liable to be given empirical content. Chapter 1, written in conjunction with G. Alfredo Minerva, provides an empirical analysis of the relationship between tourism and economic activity across Italian municipalities, and lays down the basic elements of an urban theory of tourism in an a-spatial setting. Chapter 2 extends these ideas to a quantitative urban framework to study the economic impact and the welfare consequences of tourism into the city of Venice. The model is given empirical content thanks to a large collection of data at the Census tract level for the Municipality of Venice, and then used to perform counterfactual policty analysis. In chapter 3, with Matteo Santacesaria, we consider a setting where agents are continuously distributed over a two-dimensional heterogeneous geography, and are allowed to do business at a finite set of markets. We study the equilibrium partition of the economic space into a collection of mutually-exclusive market areas, and provide condition for this equilibrium partition to exist and to be unique. Finally, chapter 4 "The rise of (urban) Europe: a Quantitative-Spatial analysis", co-authored with Matteo Cervellati and Alex Lehner, sets up a quantitative economic geography model to understand the roots of the Industrial Revolution, in an attempt to match the evolution of the European urban network, and the corresponding city-size distribution, over the period A.D. 1000-1850. It highlights the importance of agricultural trade across cities for the emergence of large manufacturing hubs.

Mechanisms Predisposing Penile Fracture And Long-term Outcomes On Erectile And Voiding Functions.

Purpose. To determine the mechanisms predisposing penile fracture as well as the rate of long-term penile deformity and erectile and voiding functions. Methods. All fractures were repaired on an emergency basis via subcoronal incision and absorbable suture with simultaneous repair of eventual urethral lesion. Patients' status before fracture and voiding and erectile functions at long term were assessed by periodic follow-up and phone call. Detailed history included cause, symptoms, and single-question self-report of erectile and voiding functions. Results. Among the 44 suspicious cases, 42 (95.4%) were confirmed, mean age was 34.5 years (range: 18-60), mean follow-up 59.3 months (range 9-155). Half presented the classical triad of audible crack, detumescence, and pain. Heterosexual intercourse was the most common cause (28 patients, 66.7%), followed by penile manipulation (6 patients, 14.3%), and homosexual intercourse (4 patients, 9.5%). Woman on top was the most common heterosexual position (n = 14, 50%), followed by doggy style (n = 8, 28.6%). Four patients (9.5%) maintained the cause unclear. Six (14.3%) patients had urethral injury and two (4.8%) had erectile dysfunction, treated by penile prosthesis and PDE-5i. No patient showed urethral fistula, voiding deterioration, penile nodule/curve or pain. Conclusions. Woman on top was the potentially riskiest sexual position (50%). Immediate surgical treatment warrants long-term very low morbidity.