Fluctuaciones cíclicas y raíces unitarias en la economia española, 1850-1990

En este artículo se analiza el grado de persistencia de las fluctuaciones cíclicas en la economía española. En concreto, se estudia si el PIB y el PIB por capita de esta economía presentan una raíz unitaria. Con el fin de evitar el sesgo a aceptar raíces unitarias cuando se producen cambios en la función de tendencia, como el originado por la Guerra Civil española (1936-1939), se han aplicado varios contrastes que tienen en cuenta los cambios en la función de tendencia. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que existe una importante evidencia en el sentido que el logaritmo del PIB presenta una raíz unitaria. La principal implicación de este resultado es que los shocks sobre el producto tienen efectos permanentes en el nivel del PIB de la economía española, aun cuando esta hipótesis es más difícil de aceptar por el PIB por capita vista la evidencia contradictoria encontrada a favor de la misma.

Fornecimento de cálcio para plantas de eucalyptus saligna por meio de aplicação de resíduo industrial lama de cal

O resíduo industrial lama de cal, originado da produção de papel kraft branqueada de eucalipto, apresenta em sua composição quantidade considerável de cálcio (Ca), o que pode contribuir para reduzir o consumo de fertilizantes em plantios florestais. Com o objetivo de avaliar o efeito da lama de cal como fonte de Ca e seus efeitos sobre a disponibilidade de nutrientes e produção de matéria seca da parte aérea de plantas de eucalipto, foram conduzidos dois ensaios em vasos, em casa de vegetação, na área de pesquisa da Klabin Florestal do Paraná. Os solos utilizados foram um Neossolo Quartzarênico órtico (RQo) e um Nitossolo Vermelho eutroférrico (NV). Os tratamentos constituíram-se de duas fontes de Ca, calcário dolomítico e lama de cal, e de uma testemunha, sendo identificados como: RQo testemunha, RQo calcário e RQo lama de cal; e NV testemunha, NV calcário e NV lama de cal. O delineamento experimental utilizado foi inteiramente casualizado, com quatro repetições. Para tanto, plantas de Eucalyptus saligna foram mantidas por 126 dias em vasos. Quantificou-se a produção de matéria seca e realizaram-se as análises de folhas e dos solos, por ocasião da coleta das plantas. Os dados revelaram que tanto a adição de calcário dolomítico quanto a lama de cal promoveram o fornecimento de Ca para as plantas de eucalipto, proporcionando aumentos na produção de matéria seca. Os teores de Ca e Na nas folhas de eucalipto foram acrescidos com a adição do resíduo ao solo, em comparação com o tratamento com calcário dolomítico, enquanto os teores de N, P, K e S foram semelhantes. As plantas cultivadas nos tratamentos RQo testemunha e RQo lama de cal apresentaram teores foliares de Mg abaixo da faixa considerada adequada. A adição de lama no solo elevou o pH e as concentrações de Ca e de Na, reduziu o Al trocável e não influenciou na disponibilidade de Mg, fato que pode proporcionar deficiência de Mg às plantas, em solos com baixos níveis desse nutriente, conforme observado neste estudo.

Vehicular Traffic Flow Map, 1990

Traffic volumes represented on this map are annual average daily traffic volumes between major traffic generators: highway junctions and cities.

Conviction Statistics as an Indicator of Crime Trends in Europe from 1990 to 2006

Convictions statistics were the first criminal statistics available in Europe during the nineteenth century. Their main weaknesses as crime measures and for comparative purposes were identified by Alphonse de Candolle in the 1830s. Currently, they are seldom used by comparative criminologists, although they provide a less valid but more reliable measure of crime and formal social control than police statistics. This article uses conviction statistics, compiled from the four editions of the European Sourcebook of Crime and Criminal Justice Statistics, to study the evolution of persons convicted in European countries from 1990 to 2006. Trends in persons convicted for six offences -intentional homicide, assault, rape, robbery, theft, and drug offences- and up to 26 European countries are analysed. These trends are established for the whole of Europe as well as for a cluster of Western European countries and a cluster of Central and Eastern European countries. The analyses show similarities between both regions of Europe at the beginning and at the end of the period under study. After a general increase of the rate of persons convicted in the early 1990s in the whole of Europe, trends followed different directions in Western and in Central and Eastern Europe. However, during the 2000s, it can be observed, throughout Europe, a certain stability of the rates of persons convicted for intentional homicides, accompanied by a general decrease of the rate of persons convicted for property offences, and an increase of the rate of those convicted for drug offences. The latter goes together with an increase of the rate of persons convicted for non lethal violent offences, which only reached some stability at the end of the time series. These trends show that there is no general crime drop in Europe. After a discussion of possible theoretical explanations, a multifactor model, inspired by opportunity-based theories, is proposed to explain the trends observed.

Employment risk, unemployment insurance and search strategies: a disaggregated equilibrium approach with application to the Swiss labour market in the 1990-ies

The Organization of the Thesis The remainder of the thesis comprises five chapters and a conclusion. The next chapter formalizes the envisioned theory into a tractable model. Section 2.2 presents a formal description of the model economy: the individual heterogeneity, the individual objective, the UI setting, the population dynamics and the equilibrium. The welfare and efficiency criteria for qualifying various equilibrium outcomes are proposed in section 2.3. The fourth section shows how the model-generated information can be computed. Chapter 3 transposes the model from chapter 2 in conditions that enable its use in the analysis of individual labor market strategies and their implications for the labor market equilibrium. In section 3.2 the Swiss labor market data sets, stylized facts, and the UI system are presented. The third section outlines and motivates the parameterization method. In section 3.4 the model's replication ability is evaluated and some aspects of the parameter choice are discussed. Numerical solution issues can be found in the appendix. Chapter 4 examines the determinants of search-strategic behavior in the model economy and its implications for the labor market aggregates. In section 4.2, the unemployment duration distribution is examined and related to search strategies. Section 4.3 shows how the search- strategic behavior is influenced by the UI eligibility and section 4.4 how it is determined by individual heterogeneity. The composition effects generated by search strategies in labor market aggregates are examined in section 4.5. The last section evaluates the model's replication of empirical unemployment escape frequencies reported in Sheldon [67]. Chapter 5 applies the model economy to examine the effects on the labor market equilibrium of shocks to the labor market risk structure, to the deep underlying labor market structure and to the UI setting. Section 5.2 examines the effects of the labor market risk structure on the labor market equilibrium and the labor market strategic behavior. The effects of alterations in the labor market deep economic structural parameters, i.e. individual preferences and production technology, are shown in Section 5.3. Finally, the UI setting impacts on the labor market are studied in Section 5.4. This section also evaluates the role of the UI authority monitoring and the differences in the Way changes in the replacement rate and the UI benefit duration affect the labor market. In chapter 6 the model economy is applied in counterfactual experiments to assess several aspects of the Swiss labor market movements in the nineties. Section 6.2 examines the two equilibria characterizing the Swiss labor market in the nineties, the " growth" equilibrium with a "moderate" UI regime and the "recession" equilibrium with a more "generous" UI. Section 6.3 evaluates the isolated effects of the structural shocks, while the isolated effects of the UI reforms are analyzed in section 6.4. Particular dimensions of the UI reforms, the duration, replacement rate and the tax rate effects, are studied in section 6.5, while labor market equilibria without benefits are evaluated in section 6.6. In section 6.7 the structural and institutional interactions that may act as unemployment amplifiers are discussed in view of the obtained results. A welfare analysis based on individual welfare in different structural and UI settings is presented in the eighth section. Finally, the results are related to more favorable unemployment trends after 1997. The conclusion evaluates the features embodied in the model economy with respect to the resulting model dynamics to derive lessons from the model design." The thesis ends by proposing guidelines for future improvements of the model and directions for further research.

Sediment Control in Bridge Waterways, February 1990

The objective of this study was to develop guidelines for use of the Iowa Vanes technique for sediment control in bridge waterways. Iowa Vanes are small flow-training structures (foils) designed to modify the near-bed flow pattern and redistribute flow and sediment transport within the channel cross section. The structures are installed at an angleof attack of 15 - 25' with the flow, and their initial height is 0.2 - 0.5 times water depth at design stage. The vanes function by generating secondary circulation in the flow. The circulation alters magnitude and direction of the bed shear stress and causes a reduction in velocity and sediment transport in the vane controlled area. As a result, the river bed aggrades in the vane controlled area and degrades outside. This report summarizes the basic theory, describes results of laboratory and field tests, and presents the resulting design procedure. Design graphs have been developed based on the theory. The graphs are entered with basic flow variables and desired bed topography. The output is vane layout and design. The procedure is illustrated with two numerical examples prepared with data that are typical for many rivers in Iowa and the midwest. The report also discusses vane material. In most applications, the vane height will be between 30% and 50% of bankfull flow depth and the vane length will be two to three times vane height. The vanes will be placed in arrays along the bank of the river. Each array will contain two or more vanes. The vanes in an array will be spaced laterally a distance of two to three times vane height. The streamwise spacing between the arrays will be 15 to 30 times vane height, and the vane-to-bank distance will be three to four times vane height. The study also show that the first (most upstream) array in the vane system must be located a distance of at least three array spacings upstream from the bridge, and there must be at least three arrays in the system for it to be effective at and downstream from the third array.