Decay to equilibrium for jump processes with heavy tails

The case is made for a more careful analysis of the large time asymptotic of infinite particle systems in the thermodynamic limit beyond zero density. The insufficiency of current analysis even in the model case of free particles is demonstrated. Recent advances based on more sophisticated analytical tools like functions of mean variation and Hardy spaces are sketched.

Satellite-based estimate of the direct and indirect aerosol climate forcing

The main uncertainty in anthropogenic forcing of the Earth’s climate stems from pollution aerosols, particularly their ‘‘indirect effect’’ whereby aerosols modify cloud properties. We develop a new methodology to derive a measurement-based estimate using almost exclusively information from an Earth radiation budget instrument (CERES) and a radiometer (MODIS). We derive a statistical relationship between planetary albedo and cloud properties, and, further, between the cloud properties and column aerosol concentration. Combining these relationships with a data set of satellite-derived anthropogenic aerosol fraction, we estimate an anthropogenic radiative forcing of �-0.9 ± 0.4 Wm�-2 for the aerosol direct effect and of �-0.2 ± 0.1 Wm�-2 for the cloud albedo effect. Because of uncertainties in both satellite data and the method, the uncertainty of this result is likely larger than the values given here which correspond only to the quantifiable error estimates. The results nevertheless indicate that current global climate models may overestimate the cloud albedo effect.

Aerosol indirect effects – general circulation model intercomparison and evaluation with satellite data

Aerosol indirect effects continue to constitute one of the most important uncertainties for anthropogenic climate perturbations. Within the international AEROCOM initiative, the representation of aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions in ten different general circulation models (GCMs) is evaluated using three satellite datasets. The focus is on stratiform liquid water clouds since most GCMs do not include ice nucleation effects, and none of the model explicitly parameterises aerosol effects on convective clouds. We compute statistical relationships between aerosol optical depth (τa) and various cloud and radiation quantities in a manner that is consistent between the models and the satellite data. It is found that the model-simulated influence of aerosols on cloud droplet number concentration (Nd ) compares relatively well to the satellite data at least over the ocean. The relationship between �a and liquid water path is simulated much too strongly by the models. This suggests that the implementation of the second aerosol indirect effect mainly in terms of an autoconversion parameterisation has to be revisited in the GCMs. A positive relationship between total cloud fraction (fcld) and �a as found in the satellite data is simulated by the majority of the models, albeit less strongly than that in the satellite data in most of them. In a discussion of the hypotheses proposed in the literature to explain the satellite-derived strong fcld–�a relationship, our results indicate that none can be identified as a unique explanation. Relationships similar to the ones found in satellite data between �a and cloud top temperature or outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) are simulated by only a few GCMs. The GCMs that simulate a negative OLR - �a relationship show a strong positive correlation between �a and fcld. The short-wave total aerosol radiative forcing as simulated by the GCMs is strongly influenced by the simulated anthropogenic fraction of �a, and parameterisation assumptions such as a lower bound on Nd . Nevertheless, the strengths of the statistical relationships are good predictors for the aerosol forcings in the models. An estimate of the total short-wave aerosol forcing inferred from the combination of these predictors for the modelled forcings with the satellite-derived statistical relationships yields a global annual mean value of −1.5±0.5Wm−2. In an alternative approach, the radiative flux perturbation due to anthropogenic aerosols can be broken down into a component over the cloud-free portion of the globe (approximately the aerosol direct effect) and a component over the cloudy portion of the globe (approximately the aerosol indirect effect). An estimate obtained by scaling these simulated clearand cloudy-sky forcings with estimates of anthropogenic �a and satellite-retrieved Nd–�a regression slopes, respectively, yields a global, annual-mean aerosol direct effect estimate of −0.4±0.2Wm−2 and a cloudy-sky (aerosol indirect effect) estimate of −0.7±0.5Wm−2, with a total estimate of −1.2±0.4Wm−2.

Which of satellite- or model-based estimates is closer to reality for aerosol indirect forcing?

In their contribution to PNAS, Penner et al. (1) used a climate model to estimate the radiative forcing by the aerosol first indirect effect (cloud albedo effect) in two different ways: first, by deriving a statistical relationship between the logarithm of cloud droplet number concentration, ln Nc, and the logarithm of aerosol optical depth, ln AOD (or the logarithm of the aerosol index, ln AI) for present-day and preindustrial aerosol fields, a method that was applied earlier to satellite data (2), and, second, by computing the radiative flux perturbation between two simulations with and without anthropogenic aerosol sources. They find a radiative forcing that is a factor of 3 lower in the former approach than in the latter [as Penner et al. (1) correctly noted, only their “inline” results are useful for the comparison]. This study is a very interesting contribution, but we believe it deserves several clarifications.

Natural aerosol direct and indirect radiative effects

Natural aerosol plays a significant role in the Earth’s system due to its ability to alter the radiative balance of the Earth. Here we use a global aerosol microphysics model together with a radiative transfer model to estimate radiative effects for five natural aerosol sources in the present-day atmosphere: dimethyl sulfide (DMS), sea-salt, volcanoes, monoterpenes, and wildfires. We calculate large annual global mean aerosol direct and cloud albedo effects especially for DMS-derived sulfate (–0.23 Wm–2 and –0.76 Wm–2, respectively), volcanic sulfate (–0.21 Wm–2 and –0.61 Wm–2) and sea-salt (–0.44 Wm–2 and –0.04 Wm–2). The cloud albedo effect responds nonlinearly to changes in emission source strengths. The natural sources have both markedly different radiative efficiencies and indirect/direct radiative effect ratios. Aerosol sources that contribute a large number of small particles (DMS-derived and volcanic sulfate) are highly effective at influencing cloud albedo per unit of aerosol mass burden.

Direct and indirect effects of pathological gambling on risk attitudes

We study individual decision making in a lottery-choice task performed by three different populations: gamblers under psychological treatment ("addicts"), gamblers’ spouses ("victims"), and people who are neither gamblers or gamblers’ spouses ("normals"). We find that addicts are willing to take less risk than normals, but the difference is smaller as a gambler’s time under treatment increases. The large majority of victims report themselves unwilling to take any risk at all. However, addicts in the first year of treatment react more than other addicts to the different values of the risk-return parameter.

Testing for bubbles in indirect property price cycles

Speculative bubbles are generated when investors include the expectation of the future price in their information set. Under these conditions, the actual market price of the security, that is set according to demand and supply, will be a function of the future price and vice versa. In the presence of speculative bubbles, positive expected bubble returns will lead to increased demand and will thus force prices to diverge from their fundamental value. This paper investigates whether the prices of UK equity-traded property stocks over the past 15 years contain evidence of a speculative bubble. The analysis draws upon the methodologies adopted in various studies examining price bubbles in the general stock market. Fundamental values are generated using two models: the dividend discount and the Gordon growth. Variance bounds tests are then applied to test for bubbles in the UK property asset prices. Finally, cointegration analysis is conducted to provide further evidence on the presence of bubbles. Evidence of the existence of bubbles is found, although these appear to be transitory and concentrated in the mid-to-late 1990s.

The importance of vertical velocity variability for estimates of the indirect aerosol effects

The activation of aerosols to form cloud droplets is dependent upon vertical velocities whose local variability is not typically resolved at the GCM grid scale. Consequently, it is necessary to represent the subgrid-scale variability of vertical velocity in the calculation of cloud droplet number concentration. This study uses the UK Chemistry and Aerosols community model (UKCA) within the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM3), coupled for the first time to an explicit aerosol activation parameterisation, and hence known as UKCA-Activate. We explore the range of uncertainty in estimates of the indirect aerosol effects attributable to the choice of parameterisation of the subgrid-scale variability of vertical velocity in HadGEM-UKCA. Results of simulations demonstrate that the use of a characteristic vertical velocity cannot replicate results derived with a distribution of vertical velocities, and is to be discouraged in GCMs. This study focuses on the effect of the variance (σw2) of a Gaussian pdf (probability density function) of vertical velocity. Fixed values of σw (spanning the range measured in situ by nine flight campaigns found in the literature) and a configuration in which σw depends on turbulent kinetic energy are tested. Results from the mid-range fixed σw and TKE-based configurations both compare well with observed vertical velocity distributions and cloud droplet number concentrations. The radiative flux perturbation due to the total effects of anthropogenic aerosol is estimated at −1.9 W m−2 with σw = 0.1 m s−1, −2.1 W m−2 with σw derived from TKE, −2.25 W m−2 with σw = 0.4 m s−1, and −2.3 W m−2 with σw = 0.7 m s−1. The breadth of this range is 0.4 W m−2, which is comparable to a substantial fraction of the total diversity of current aerosol forcing estimates. Reducing the uncertainty in the parameterisation of σw would therefore be an important step towards reducing the uncertainty in estimates of the indirect aerosol effects. Detailed examination of regional radiative flux perturbations reveals that aerosol microphysics can be responsible for some climate-relevant radiative effects, highlighting the importance of including microphysical aerosol processes in GCMs.

Jump and variance risk premia in the S&P 500

We analyze the risk premia embedded in the S&P 500 spot index and option markets. We use a long time-series of spot prices and a large panel of option prices to jointly estimate the diffusive stock risk premium, the price jump risk premium, the diffusive variance risk premium and the variance jump risk premium. The risk premia are statistically and economically significant and move over time. Investigating the economic drivers of the risk premia, we are able to explain up to 63 % of these variations.

The indirect amygdala-dorsal striatum pathway mediates conditioned freezing: Insights on emotional memory networks

The dorsal striatum (DS) is involved in various forms of learning and memory such as procedural learning, habit learning, reward-association and emotional learning. We have previously reported that bilateral DS lesions disrupt tone fear conditioning (TFC), but not contextual fear conditioning (CFC) [Ferreira TL, Moreira KM, Ikeda DC, Bueno OFA, Oliveira MGM (2003) Effects of dorsal striatum lesions in tone fear conditioning and contextual fear conditioning. Brain Res 987:17-24]. To further elucidate the participation of DS in emotional learning, in the present study, we investigated the effects of bilateral pretest (postraining) electrolytic DS lesions on TFC. Given the well-acknowledged role of the amygdala in emotional learning, we also examined a possible cooperation between DS and the amygdala in TFC, by using asymmetrical electrolytic lesions, consisting of a unilateral lesion of the central amygdaloid nucleus (CeA) combined to a contralateral DS lesion. The results show that pre-test bilateral DS lesions disrupt TFC responses, suggesting that DS plays a role in the expression of TFC. More importantly, rats with asymmetrical pre-training lesions were impaired in TFC, but not in CFC tasks. This result was confirmed with muscimol asymmetrical microinjections in DS and CeA, which reversibly inactivate these structures. On the other hand, similar pretest lesions as well as unilateral electrolytic lesions of CeA and DS in the same hemisphere did not affect TFC. Possible anatomical substrates underlying the observed effects are proposed. Overall, the present results underscore that other routes, aside from the well-established CeA projections to the periaqueductal gray, may contribute to the acquisition/consolidation of the freezing response associated to a TFC task. It is suggested that CeA may presumably influence DS processing via a synaptic relay on dopaminergic neurons of the substantia nigra compacta and retrorubral nucleus. The present observations are also in line with other studies showing that TFC and CFC responses are mediated by different anatomical networks. (C) 2008 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Indirect study of (11)B(p,alpha(0))(8)Be and (10)B(p,alpha)(7)Be reactions at astrophysical energies by means of the Trojan Horse Method: recent results

Nuclear (p,alpha) reactions destroying the so-called ""light-elements"" lithium, beryllium and boron have been largely studied in the past mainly because their role in understanding some astrophysical phenomena, i.e. mixing-phenomena occurring in young F-G stars [1]. Such mechanisms transport the surface material down to the region close to the nuclear destruction zone, where typical temperatures of the order of similar to 10(6) K are reached. The corresponding Gamow energy E(0)=1.22 (Z(x)(2)Z(X)(2)T(6)(2))(1/3) [2] is about similar to 10 keV if one considers the ""boron-case"" and replaces in the previous formula Z(x) = 1, Z(X) = 5 and T(6) = 5. Direct measurements of the two (11)B(p,alpha(0))(8)Be and (10)B(p,alpha)(7)Be reactions in correspondence of this energy region are difficult to perform mainly because the combined effects of Coulomb barrier penetrability and electron screening [3]. The indirect method of the Trojan Horse (THM) [4-6] allows one to extract the two-body reaction cross section of interest for astrophysics without the extrapolation-procedures. Due to the THM formalism, the extracted indirect data have to be normalized to the available direct ones at higher energies thus implying that the method is a complementary tool in solving some still open questions for both nuclear and astrophysical issues [7-12].

Indirect study of (p, alpha) and (n, alpha) reactions induced on boron isotopes

Several experiments were performed to investigate both (p, alpha) and (n, alpha) reactions induced on boron isotopes, by means of Quasi-Free (QF) reactions induced on deuteron target. The experimental study of the astrophysically relevant, (11)B(p, alpha(0))(8)Be reaction was performed by selecting the QF-contribution on the (2)H((11)B, alpha(8)(0)Be)n reaction. Moreover, due to the large interest of a better understanding of (n, alpha) reactions both for nuclear and astrophysical developments, a preliminary study of the (10)B(n, alpha)(7)Li through the QF (2)H((10)B, alpha(7)Li)p reaction was also performed. The results concerning the two experiments will be shown and discussed.

Indirect Study of the (2)H(d,p)(3)H and (2)H(d,n)(3)He Reactions at Astrophysical Energies via the Trojan Horse Method

The (2)H(d,p)(3)H and (2)H(d,n)(3)He reactions have been indirectly studied by means of the Trojan Horse Method applied to the quasi-free (2)H((3)He, p(3)H)(1)H (2)H((3)He, n(3)He)(1)H reaction at 18 MeV of beam energy. This is the first experiment where the spectator (here (1)H) has been detected in coincidence with the charged participant, avoiding the limitations of standard neutron detectors. The d - d relative energy has been measured from 1.5 MeV down to 2 keV, at center of mass angles from 40A degrees to 170A degrees. Indirect angular distributions are compared with the direct behaviour in the overlapping regions.

Rapid method for the determination. of organic acids in wine by capillary electrophoresis with indirect UV detection

A capillary electrophoresis method for organic acids in wine was developed and validated. The optimal electrolyte consisted of 10 mmol/L 3,5-dinitrobenzoic acid (DNB) at pH 3.6 containing 0.2 mmol/L cetyltrimethylammonium bromide as flow reverser. DNB was chosen because it has an effective mobility similar to the organic acids under investigation, good buffering capacity at pH 3.6, and good chromophoric characteristics for indirect UV-absorbance detection at 254 nm. Sample preparation involved dilution and filtration. The method showed good performance characteristics: Linearity at 6 to 285 mg/L (r > 0.99); detection and quantification limits of 0.64 to 1.55 and 2.12 to 5.15 mg/L, respectively; separation time of less than 5.5 min. Coefficients of variation for ten injections were less than 5% and recoveries varied from 95% to 102%. Application to 23 samples of Brazilian wine confirmed good repeatability and demonstrated wide variation in the organic acid concentrations. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.