Maximum likelihood estimation of a migration matrix and effective population sizes in n subpopulations by using a coalescent approach

A maximum likelihood estimator based on the coalescent for unequal migration rates and different subpopulation sizes is developed. The method uses a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach to investigate possible genealogies with branch lengths and with migration events. Properties of the new method are shown by using simulated data from a four-population n-island model and a source–sink population model. Our estimation method as coded in migrate is tested against genetree; both programs deliver a very similar likelihood surface. The algorithm converges to the estimates fairly quickly, even when the Markov chain is started from unfavorable parameters. The method was used to estimate gene flow in the Nile valley by using mtDNA data from three human populations.

Global survey of genetic variation in CCR5, RANTES, and MIP-1α: Impact on the epidemiology of the HIV-1 pandemic

Expression of CC chemokine receptor 5 (CCR5), the major coreceptor for HIV-1 cell entry, and its ligands (e.g., RANTES and MIP-1α) is widely regarded as central to the pathogenesis of HIV-1 infection. By surveying nearly 3,000 HIV+ and HIV− individuals from worldwide populations for polymorphisms in the genes encoding RANTES, MIP-1α, and CCR5, we show that the evolutionary histories of human populations have had a significant impact on the distribution of variation in these genes, and that this may be responsible, in part, for the heterogeneous nature of the epidemiology of the HIV-1 pandemic. The varied distribution of RANTES haplotypes (AC, GC, and AG) associated with population-specific HIV-1 transmission- and disease-modifying effects is a striking example. Homozygosity for the AC haplotype was associated with an increased risk of acquiring HIV-1 as well as accelerated disease progression in European Americans, but not in African Americans. Yet, the prevalence of the ancestral AC haplotype is high in individuals of African origin, but substantially lower in non-Africans. In a Japanese cohort, AG-containing RANTES haplotype pairs were associated with a delay in disease progression; however, we now show that their contribution to HIV-1 pathogenesis and epidemiology in other parts of the world is negligible because the AG haplotype is infrequent in non-Far East Asians. Thus, the varied distribution of RANTES, MIP-1α, and CCR5 haplotype pairs and their population-specific phenotypic effects on HIV-1 susceptibility and disease progression results in a complex pattern of biological determinants of HIV-1 epidemiology. These findings have important implications for the design, assessment, and implementation of effective HIV-1 intervention and prevention strategies.

Declines of biomes and biotas and the future of evolution

Although panel discussants disagreed whether the biodiversity crisis constitutes a mass extinction event, all agreed that current extinction rates are 50–500 times background and are increasing and that the consequences for the future evolution of life are serious. In response to the on-going rapid decline of biomes and homogenization of biotas, the panelists predicted changes in species geographic ranges, genetic risks of extinction, genetic assimilation, natural selection, mutation rates, the shortening of food chains, the increase in nutrient-enriched niches permitting the ascendancy of microbes, and the differential survival of ecological generalists. Rates of evolutionary processes will change in different groups, and speciation in the larger vertebrates is essentially over. Action taken over the next few decades will determine how impoverished the biosphere will be in 1,000 years when many species will suffer reduced evolvability and require interventionist genetic and ecological management. Whether the biota will continue to provide the dependable ecological services humans take for granted is less clear. The discussants offered recommendations, including two of paramount importance (concerning human populations and education), seven identifying specific scientific activities to better equip us for stewardship of the processes of evolution, and one suggesting that such stewardship is now our responsibility. The ultimate test of evolutionary biology as a science is not whether it solves the riddles of the past but rather whether it enables us to manage the future of the biosphere. Our inability to make clearer predictions about the future of evolution has serious consequences for both biodiversity and humanity.

Ecological approaches and the development of “truly integrated” pest management

Recent predictions of growth in human populations and food supply suggest that there will be a need to substantially increase food production in the near future. One possible approach to meeting this demand, at least in part, is the control of pests and diseases, which currently cause a 30–40% loss in available crop production. In recent years, strategies for controlling pests and diseases have tended to focus on short-term, single-technology interventions, particularly chemical pesticides. This model frequently applies even where so-called integrated pest management strategies are used because in reality, these often are dominated by single technologies (e.g., biocontrol, host plant resistance, or biopesticides) that are used as replacements for chemicals. Very little attention is given to the interaction or compatibility of the different technologies used. Unfortunately, evidence suggests that such approaches rarely yield satisfactory results and are unlikely to provide sustainable pest control solutions for the future. Drawing on two case histories, this paper demonstrates that by increasing our basic understanding of how individual pest control technologies act and interact, new opportunities for improving pest control can be revealed. This approach stresses the need to break away from the existing single-technology, pesticide-dominated paradigm and to adopt a more ecological approach built around a fundamental understanding of population biology at the local farm level and the true integration of renewable technologies such as host plant resistance and natural biological control, which are available to even the most resource-poor farmers.

Positive selection and rates of evolution in immunodeficiency viruses from humans and chimpanzees.

Evolutionary theory predicts the recent spread of primate immunodeficiency viruses (PIVs) to new human populations to be accompanied by positive selection in response to new host environments and/or by random genetic drift. I assess evidence for positive selection in human and chimpanzee PIVs type I (PIV1s), using ratios of synonymous to nonsynonymous nucleotide change based on branch lengths and outgroup rooting. Ratios are smaller for PIV1s from humans than for PIV1 from a chimpanzee for the pol, gag, and env glycoprotein 120 (gp120) regions, indicating greater effects of positive selection in PIV1s from humans. Parsimony-based relative rate tests for amino acid changes showed significant differences between PIV1s from humans and chimpanzees in 18 of 48 pairwise comparisons, with all 18 showing faster rates of change in PIV1s from humans. This study indicates that in some instances, the recent evolution of human PIV1s follows a speciational pattern, in which increased diversification of taxa is correlated with greater amounts of character change appearing and being maintained through time. This extends the generality of the speciational pattern to a group of organisms (viruses) having the fastest known rates of anagenetic change for nucleotide characters and indicates that comprehensive understanding of PIV1 evolution requires consideration of both anagenetic change within viral lineages and the relative historical success of different viral clades. Phylogenetic analyses show that neither PIV1s infecting humans nor those infecting chimpanzees represent monophyletic groups and suggest multiple host-species shifts for PIV1s.

Population dynamics of flaviviruses revealed by molecular phylogenies.

The phylogeny of 123 complete envelope gene sequences was reconstructed in order to understand the evolution of tick- and mosquito-borne flaviviruses. An analysis of phylogenetic tree structure reveals a continual and asymmetric branching process in the tick-borne flaviviruses, compared with an explosive radiation in the last 200 years in viruses transmitted by mosquitoes. The distinction between these two viral groups probably reflects differences in modes of dispersal, propagation, and changes in the size of host populations. The most serious implication of this work is that growing human populations are being exposed to an expanding range of increasingly diverse viral strains.

DNA profile match probabilities in a subdivided population: when can subdivision be ignored?

Li and Chakravarti [Li, C.C. & Chakravarti, A. (1994) Hum. Hered. 44, 100-109] compared the probability (MO) of a random match between the two DNA profiles of a pair of individuals drawn from a random-mating population to the probability (MF) of the match between a pair of random individuals drawn from a subdivided population. The level of heterogeneity in this subdivided population is measured by the parameter F, where there is no subdivision when F = 0 and increasing values of F indicate increasing subdivisions. Li and Chakravarti concluded that it is conservative to use the match probability MO, which is derived under the assumption that the two individuals are drawn from a homogeneous random-mating population without subdivision. However, MO may not be always greater than MF, even for biologically reasonable values of F. We explore here those mathematical conditions under which MO is less than MF, and we find that MO is not conservative mainly when there is an allele with a much higher frequency than all the other alleles. When empirical data for both variable number of tandem repeat (VNTR) and short tandem repeat (STR) systems are evaluated, we find that in the majority of cases MO represents a conservative probability of a match, and so the subdivision of human populations may usually be ignored for a random match, although not, of course, for relatives. Loci for which MO is not conservative should be avoided for forensic inference.

Genetic absolute dating based on microsatellites and the origin of modern humans.

We introduce a new genetic distance for microsatellite loci, incorporating features of the stepwise mutation model, and test its performance on microsatellite polymorphisms in humans, chimpanzees, and gorillas. We find that it performs well in determining the relations among the primates, but less well than other distance measures (not based on the stepwise mutation model) in determining the relations among closely related human populations. However, the deepest split in the human phylogeny seems to be accurately reconstructed by the new distance and separates African and non-African populations. The new distance is independent of population size and therefore allows direct estimation of divergence times if the mutation rate is known. Based on 30 microsatellite polymorphisms and a recently reported average mutation rate of 5.6 x 10(-4) at 15 dinucleotide microsatellites, we estimate that the deepest split in the human phylogeny occurred about 156,000 years ago. Unlike most previous estimates, ours requires no external calibration of the rate of molecular evolution. We can use such calibrations, however, to test our estimate.

Adaptive mutations in Escherichia coli as a model for the multiple mutational origins of tumors.

The cells in most tumors are found to carry multiple mutations; however, based upon mutation rates determined by fluctuation tests, the frequency of such multiple mutations should be so low that tumors are never detected within human populations. Fluctuation tests, which determine the cell-division-dependent mutation rate per cell generation in growing cells, may not be appropriate for estimating mutation rates in nondividing or very slowly dividing cells. Recent studies of time-dependent, "adaptive" mutations in nondividing populations of microorganisms suggest that similar measurements may be more appropriate to understanding the mutation origins of tumors. Here I use the ebgR and ebgA genes of Escherichia coli to measure adaptive mutation rates where multiple mutations are required for rapid growth. Mutations in either ebgA or ebgR allow very slow growth on lactulose (4-O-beta-D-galactosyl-D-fructose), with doubling times of 3.2 and 17.3 days, respectively. However, when both mutations are present, cells can grow rapidly with doubling times of 2.7 hr. I show that during prolonged (28-day) selection for growth on lactulose, the number of lactulose-utilizing mutants that accumulate is 40,000 times greater than can be accounted for on the basis of mutation rates measured by fluctuation tests, but is entirely consistent with the time-dependent adaptive mutation rates measured under the same conditions of prolonged selection.

Diversidade e estrutura genética de populações de batata da serra (Ipomoea serrana Sim.-Bianch. & L.V. Vasconcelos) da Chapada Diamantina, Bahia, utilizando marcadores ISSR

A batata-da-serra, Ipomoea serrana Sim.-Bianch. & L.V. Vasconcelos, é uma liana endêmica da Chapada Diamantina, Bahia, cuja raiz tuberosa e consumida por populações humanas ha muitos anos. Apesar da espécie, classificada como vulnerável pela IUCN (União Internacional para a Conservação da Natureza), estar submetida à pressão antrópica devido à exploração de raízes tuberosas, para uso na alimentação, são raros os estudos com a espécie, razão pela qual e de grande importância conhecer a diversidade e estrutura genética da espécie. Estudos sobre diversidade e estrutura genética a partir de marcadores moleculares são importantes por fornecerem dados sobre impactos da exploração antrópica sobre as populações, podendo oferecer subsídio para planos de manejo e conservação de espécie. Cinco populações da Chapada Diamantina, constituindo um total de 142 indivíduos, foram investigados com quatro iniciadores Inter Simple Sequence Repeats (ISSR), resultando em 34 bandas, das quais 25 foram polimórficas. A analise dos parâmetros genéticos mostrou que as populações apresentam variabilidade moderada, com 73,8% de bandas polimórficas, 0,264 de índice de diversidade de Nei e 0,389 de índice de Shannon (valores médios). A maior parte da variação ocorreu dentro das populações (77%), estimado pela analise de variância molecular (AMOVA), enquanto que a variação entre populações foi de 23%, o que corroborou os resultados de estruturação obtidos pelo programa Structure, analise de coordenadas principais (PCoA) e agrupamento estimado pelo método Neighbor-Joining, a partir do coeficiente de dissimilaridade de Jaccard. A analise Bayesiana separou os indivíduos em quatro grupos, sendo que as populações Andaraí e Capão foram alocadas em grupos distintos, enquanto as outras três populações compartilharam indivíduos distribuídos em outros dois grupos. Este estudo, por seu caráter pioneiro com relação aos marcadores moleculares, constituiu o primeiro passo para o conhecimento da diversidade genética da espécie. Estudos futuros poderão ampliar o conhecimento sobre a espécie podendo oferecer subsidio para a elaboração de um plano de manejo para esta espécie que tem sido explorada na região.

Des-re-territorialização e áreas protegidas na Amazônia: reflexões a partir do caso da Estação Ecológica da Terra do Meio-Pa-Brasil

A criação de espaços territoriais especialmente protegidos é uma estratégia utilizada pelo homem desde a antiguidade, objetivando a reserva de áreas com características naturais necessárias à manutenção ou à reprodução cultural de populações humanas específicas, regulando e limitando o acesso e a apropriação de certos recursos e/ou reservando-os para usos ou futuros. Os processos de criação dessas “áreas especialmente protegidas” foram contudo intensificados, no final do século XX, com a percepção da finitude dos recursos naturais, e acelerados pelo florescimento e a consolidação do capitalismo, agora “globalizado”. Quando tais processos, são orientados por interesses diversos de grupos sociais hegemônicos, são comuns não só a desestruturação do modo de vida dos usuários dos recursos naturais tradicionalmente relacionados aos “territórios especiais”, como também a expulsão de grupos não-hegemônicos neles já instalados, sempre que suas práticas culturais sejam consideradas como incompatíveis com os fins e os objetivos da área que se pretende proteger. Entre os tipos de área especialmente protegida estabelecidos pela legislação brasileira, encontram-se as Unidades de Conservação da Natureza (UC). Criadas por Lei com o objetivo de conservar a biodiversidade brasileira, as UC vem sendo palco de diversos conflitos ambientais envolvendo populações tradicionais em todos os biomas brasileiros, mas pode ser mais facilmente evidenciada na Amazônia, aonde a megabiodiversidade a proteger se sobrepõe a territórios ocupados por diversas etnias indígenas e outros povos tradicionais. Os conflitos são intensificados quando a categoria de manejo da UC criada restringe o acesso e altera os modos de apropriação e/ou dos usos tradicionais dos recursos naturais da área por parte dos residentes, inclusive impedindo a continuidade da permanência das populações no interior da UC, no caso o grupo das UC de Proteção Integral. À luz dos debates que vem sendo travados no campo da ecologia política, tais processos conflituosos estariam associados à desterritorialização dos grupos afetados pela criação da UC, nos quais o Estado brasileiro seria o responsável direto. Independentemente das diversas abordagens acadêmicas para o conceito de “território”, entende-se atualmente que a territorialização e a desterritorialização (com consequente reterritorialização) são processos interrelacionados e circularmente conectados, não podendo ser compreendidos separadamente. Assim, o objetivo do presente trabalho é contribuir para a compreensão desses processos de des-re-terrritorialização, avaliando como alguns mecanismos previstos na Lei do Sistema Nacional das Unidades de Conservação para o reassentamento das populações anteriormente residentes vem sendo aplicados, no sentido de promover processos de reterritorialização. As reflexões apresentadas se dão a partir do caso dos ribeirinhos e colonos residentes na Estação Ecológica da Terra do Meio, Pará, Brasil. A partir da avaliação, são propostas alternativas para minimizar a situação de injustiça ambiental na qual se encontram esses atores sociais específicos.

Synthesis, Modification, and Application of Siloxane Materials for Environmental Sensing

As human populations and resource consumption increase, it is increasingly important to monitor the quality of our environment. While laboratory instruments offer useful information, portable, easy to use sensors would allow environmental analysis to occur on-site, at lower cost, and with minimal operator training. We explore the synthesis, modification, and applications of modified polysiloxane in environmental sensing. Multiple methods of producing modified siloxanes were investigated. Oligomers were formed by using functionalized monomers, producing siloxane materials containing silicon hydride, methyl, and phenyl side chains. Silicon hydride-functionalized oligomers were further modified by hydrosilylation to incorporate methyl ester and naphthyl side chains. Modifications to the siloxane materials were also carried out using post-curing treatments. Methyl ester-functionalized siloxane was incorporated into the surface of a cured poly(dimethylsiloxane) film by siloxane equilibration. The materials containing methyl esters were hydrolyzed to reveal carboxylic acids, which could later be used for covalent protein immobilization. Finally, the siloxane surfaces were modified to incorporate antibodies by covalent, affinity, and adsorption-based attachment. These modifications were characterized by a variety of methods, including contact angle, attenuated total reflectance Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, dye labels, and 1H nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. The modified siloxane materials were employed in a variety of sensing schemes. Volatile organic compounds were detected using methyl, phenyl, and naphthyl-functionalized materials on a Fabry-Perot interferometer and a refractometer. The Fabry-Perot interferometer was found to detect the analytes upon siloxane extraction by deformation of the Bragg reflectors. The refractometer was used to determine that naphthyl-functionalized siloxanes had elevated refractive indices, rendering these materials more sensitive to some analytes. Antibody-modified siloxanes were used to detect biological analytes through a solid phase microextraction-mediated enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (SPME ELISA). The SPME ELISA was found to have higher analyte sensitivity compared to a conventional ELISA system. The detection scheme was used to detect Escherichia coli at 8500 CFU/mL. These results demonstrate the variety of methods that can be used to modify siloxanes and the wide range of applications of modified siloxanes has been demonstrated through chemical and biological sensing schemes.

The evolution of microRNA in primates

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Economic competition and evolution: Are there lessons from ecology?

After generally discussing models in ecology and economics that combine competition, optimization, and evolution, this article concentrates on models of intraspecific competition. It demonstrates the importance of diversity/inequalities within populations of species and other environments for the sustainability of their populations, given the occurrence of environmental change. This is demonstrated both for scramble (open-access) and contest competition. Implications are drawn for human populations and industrial organization. The possibility is raised that within-industry competition may not always exist between firms in all stages of the development of a new industry. Policy implications are considered. For example, it is argued that policies designed to encourage intense business competition and maximum economic efficiency have the drawback of eventually making industries highly vulnerable to exogenous economic changes.

Ross River virus disease clusters and spatial relationship with mosquito biting exposure in Redland Shire, southern Queensland, Australia

The spatial heterogeneity in the risk of Ross River virus (family Togaviridae, genus Alphavirus, RRV) disease, the most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia, was examined in Redland Shire in southern Queensland, Australia. Disease cases, complaints from residents of intense mosquito biting exposure, and human population data were mapped using a geographic information system. Surface maps of RRV disease age-sex standardized morbidity ratios and mosquito biting complaint morbidity ratios were created. To determine whether there was significant spatial variation in disease and complaint patterns, a spatial scan analysis method was used to test whether the number of cases and complaints was distributed according to underlying population at risk. Several noncontiguous areas in proximity to productive saline water habitats of Aedes vigilax (Skuse), a recognized vector of RRV, had higher than expected numbers of RRV disease cases and complaints. Disease rates in human populations in areas which had high numbers of adult Ae. vigilax in carbon dioxide- and octenol-baited light traps were up to 2.9 times those in areas that rarely had high numbers of mosquitoes. It was estimated that targeted control of adult Ae. vigilax in these high-risk areas could potentially reduce the RRV disease incidence by an average of 13.6%. Spatial correlation was found between RRV disease risk and complaints from residents of mosquito biting. Based on historical patterns of RRV transmission throughout Redland Shire and estimated future human population growth in areas with higher than average RRV disease incidence, it was estimated that RRV incidence rates will increase by 8% between 2001 and 2021. The use of arbitrary administrative areas that ranged in size from 4.6 to 318.3 km2, has the potential to mask any small scale heterogeneity in disease patterns. With the availability of georeferenced data sets and high-resolution imagery, it is becoming more feasible to undertake spatial analyses at relatively small scales.