Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of early detection surveillance for plant pest invasions

Early detection surveillance programs aim to find invasions of exotic plant pests and diseases before they are too widespread to eradicate. However, the value of these programs can be difficult to justify when no positive detections are made. To demonstrate the value of pest absence information provided by these programs, we use a hierarchical Bayesian framework to model estimates of incursion extent with and without surveillance. A model for the latent invasion process provides the baseline against which surveillance data are assessed. Ecological knowledge and pest management criteria are introduced into the model using informative priors for invasion parameters. Observation models assimilate information from spatio-temporal presence/absence data to accommodate imperfect detection and generate posterior estimates of pest extent. When applied to an early detection program operating in Queensland, Australia, the framework demonstrates that this typical surveillance regime provides a modest reduction in the estimate that a surveyed district is infested. More importantly, the model suggests that early detection surveillance programs can provide a dramatic reduction in the putative area of incursion and therefore offer a substantial benefit to incursion management. By mapping spatial estimates of the point probability of infestation, the model identifies where future surveillance resources can be most effectively deployed.

Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of plant pest invasions with human-mediated dispersal

Hierarchical Bayesian models can assimilate surveillance and ecological information to estimate both invasion extent and model parameters for invading plant pests spread by people. A reliability analysis framework that can accommodate multiple dispersal modes is developed to estimate human-mediated dispersal parameters for an invasive species. Uncertainty in the observation process is modelled by accounting for local natural spread and population growth within spatial units. Broad scale incursion dynamics are based on a mechanistic gravity model with a Weibull distribution modification to incorporate a local pest build-up phase. The model uses Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations to infer the probability of colonisation times for discrete spatial units and to estimate connectivity parameters between these units. The hierarchical Bayesian model with observational and ecological components is applied to a surveillance dataset for a spiralling whitefly (Aleurodicus dispersus) invasion in Queensland, Australia. The model structure provides a useful application that draws on surveillance data and ecological knowledge that can be used to manage the risk of pest movement.

Framing as status or benefits? Consumers’ reactions to hierarchical loyalty program communication

Purpose A fundamental aspect of hierarchical loyalty programs is that some consumers get rewards that others do not. Despite the widespread use of such programs, academics have long debated whether these benefits are outweighed by the potential negative impact of the differential treatment of customers. This study extends our understanding, examining the impact of message framing on consumers’ reactions to hierarchical loyalty structures. Design/methodology/approach Three online studies were conducted. Study 1 uses advertisements to manipulate the message frame’s emphasis (benefits vs. status). Study 2 manipulates consumers’ frame of thought by directing their attention to either changes in benefits or status. Finally, Study 3 uses the proposed framework to reconcile contradictory findings from past research. Findings Low-frequency customers who do not expect to qualify for a superior customer tier tend to reject hierarchical programs when thinking about status. In contrast, when these customers think about concrete rewards, loyalty program messages produce no negative reactions. High-frequency customers are positively affected by communication regardless of the type of benefits framed. Research limitations/implications All studies were done online potentially limiting the external validity of the results. Nevertheless, the impact of message framing on perceptions about the loyalty program seems to be quite robust across different studies and manipulations. Practical implications When communicating with low-frequency customers managers should avoid promising status; customers should instead be motivated based on concrete rewards. High-frequency customers are indifferent to alternative emphasis of communication frames. Originality/value Marketing academics have acknowledged the importance of being able to reward top customers without demotivating light and moderate users. Our research is the first to provide a solution to this issue.

A flexible hierarchical approach for facial age estimation based on multiple features

Age estimation from facial images is increasingly receiving attention to solve age-based access control, age-adaptive targeted marketing, amongst other applications. Since even humans can be induced in error due to the complex biological processes involved, finding a robust method remains a research challenge today. In this paper, we propose a new framework for the integration of Active Appearance Models (AAM), Local Binary Patterns (LBP), Gabor wavelets (GW) and Local Phase Quantization (LPQ) in order to obtain a highly discriminative feature representation which is able to model shape, appearance, wrinkles and skin spots. In addition, this paper proposes a novel flexible hierarchical age estimation approach consisting of a multi-class Support Vector Machine (SVM) to classify a subject into an age group followed by a Support Vector Regression (SVR) to estimate a specific age. The errors that may happen in the classification step, caused by the hard boundaries between age classes, are compensated in the specific age estimation by a flexible overlapping of the age ranges. The performance of the proposed approach was evaluated on FG-NET Aging and MORPH Album 2 datasets and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.50 and 5.86 years was achieved respectively. The robustness of the proposed approach was also evaluated on a merge of both datasets and a MAE of 5.20 years was achieved. Furthermore, we have also compared the age estimation made by humans with the proposed approach and it has shown that the machine outperforms humans. The proposed approach is competitive with current state-of-the-art and it provides an additional robustness to blur, lighting and expression variance brought about by the local phase features.

Algorithms for Constructing Hierarchical Graphs

An algorithm is described for developing a hierarchy among a set of elements having certain precedence relations. This algorithm, which is based on tracing a path through the graph, is easily implemented by a computer.

Algorithms for Constructing Hierarchical Graphs

An algorithm is described for developing a hierarchy among a set of elements having certain precedence relations. This algorithm, which is based on tracing a path through the graph, is easily implemented by a computer.

Synthesis of plane linkages to generate functions of two variables using point position reductionâII. Sliding inputs and outputs

The paper presents simple graphical procedures for the position synthesis of plane linkage mechanisms with sliding inputs and output to generate functions of two independent variables. The procedures are based on point position reduction and permit synthesis of the linkage to satisfy up to five arbitrarily selected precision positions.

Letter on the election of Dr. Leo to the position of Honorary Secretary of Home for Aged and Infirm

Letter: Dr. Leo elected Honorary Secretary of Home for Aged and Infirm. Written in English script.

Hierarchical modelling of acclimatory processesstar, open

The term acclimation has been used with several connotations in the field of acclimatory physiology. An attempt has been made, in this paper, to define precisely the term “acclimation” for effective modelling of acclimatory processes. Acclimation is defined with respect to a specific variable, as cumulative experience gained by the organism when subjected to a step change in the environment. Experimental observations on a large number of variables in animals exposed to sustained stress, show that after initial deviation from the basal value (defined as “growth”), the variables tend to return to basal levels (defined as “decay”). This forms the basis for modelling biological responses in terms of their growth and decay. Hierarchical systems theory as presented by Mesarovic, Macko & Takahara (1970) facilitates modelling of complex and partially characterized systems. This theory, in conjunction with “growth-decay” analysis of biological variables, is used to model temperature regulating system in animals exposed to cold. This approach appears to be applicable at all levels of biological organization. Regulation of hormonal activity which forms a part of the temperature regulating system, and the relationship of the latter with the “energy” system of the animal of which it forms a part, are also effectively modelled by this approach. It is believed that this systematic approach would eliminate much of the current circular thinking in the area of acclimatory physiology.

Dancing practices from multiple perspectives: the increasingly complex role of the contemporary dancer

This paper will discuss the complexities of the role of contemporary dancer in this current epoch, with a particular focus on the multiple identities dancers embody within dance practice and how these accumulate to form a creative self-in-process or ‘moving identity’. Wider issues, such as training will be explored questioning how technical skills can be imparted alongside autonomous learning approaches to ensure that dancers are prepared to negotiate the entrepreneurial ecology of various dance sectors. Furthermore, the paper will examine the shifting relationship between choreographer and dancer from hierarchical to co-creative including how, in spite of the often collaborative nature of dance creation, the marketplace continues to celebrate the singular authorial position of the choreographer. Each of these elements will reflect back the complex issues of agency and creative self-hood that dancers must negotiate in an increasingly diverse and changeable arts environment.

The family Herbertaceae and its novel systematic position within liverworts

Taxonomic relationships of the liverwort genus Herbertus in Asia were examined. In addition, the phylogeny of the family Herbertaceae and its close relatives was investigated and analyses conducted of higher level relationships within the entire liverwort phylum. Species of Herbertus show great plasticity in various morphological characters, resulted in a large number of described species. This study was the first comprehensive revision of Asian Herbertus, with 12 species recognized for the continent. Eleven names were reduced to synonymy under earlier described species, and one species was excluded from the genus. Herbertus buchii Juslén was described as a new species. Phylogenetic analyses based on both molecular and morphological characters resolved the families Vetaformaceae, Lepicoleaceae, and Herbertaceae (including Mastigophoraceae) as a monophyletic entity. This clade is among the most derived groups within the leafy liverworts and comprises mostly isophyllous plants, all of which have bracteolar antheridia. The relationships of Mastigophoraceae have formerly been controversial. My results confirm the view that this family is closely related to Herbertaceae, Lepicoleaceae, and Vetaformaceae. In the proposed new classification Mastigophoraceae is included in Herbertaceae. Phylogenetic relationships within the liverworts were reconstructed using both chloroplast and nuclear sequences as well as morphological characters. These analyses were the most comprehensive to date at the time of publication. Previously it was believed that liverworts had a common ancestor with an erect, radial gametophyte and a tetrahedral apical cell. The leafy liverworts were arranged based on the assumption that similar structures had repeatedly developed in many different suborders, with evolution proceeding from erect and isophyllous to creeping and anisophyllous plants. The complex thalloid liverworts were assumed to be the most derived group. By contrast, our studies resolved a clade comprising Treubia and Haplomitrium as the earliest extant liverwort lineage. According to our results the complex thalloids are also an early diverging lineage, and the simple thalloids, traditionally classified together, are a paraphyletic group. Within leafy liverworts, the hypothesis of repeated evolution from isophyllous to anisophyllous plants based on the assumption of a basal unresolved polytomy was rejected. Fundamentally, the leafy liverworts can be divided into three groups. In conflict with the earlier hypotheses, the isophyllous liverworts, including Herbertaceae, were resolved as derived lineages within the liverworts.

Place quality and urban competitiveness symbiosis? A position paper

Urban agglomerations—where innovation and knowledge generation activities take place—are in a tough competition to become a major player in the global knowledge economy. It is claimed that soft measures—namely quality of life and place—help in fostering and attracting talent, and consequently draw investment to these urban localities. This paper aims to scrutinise the role of soft measures in supporting urban competitiveness through a critical review of the scholarly literature. The findings shed some light on whether there is a symbiotic relationship between place quality and urban competitiveness. The paper also points out directions for future investigations.

A model of the polarization position-angle swings in BL Lacertae objects

The polarization position-angle swings that have been measured in a number of BL Lacertae objects and highly variable quasars are interpreted in terms of shock waves which illuminate (by enhanced synchrotron radiation) successive transverse cross sections of a magnetized, relativistic jet. The jet is assumed to have a nonaxisymmetric magnetic field configuration of the type discussed in the companion paper on the equilibria of force-free jets. For a jet that is viewed at a small angle to the axis, the passage of a shock will give rise to an apparent rotation of the polarization position angle whose amplitude can be substantially larger than 180 deg. The effects of freely propagating shocks are compared with those of bow shocks which form in front of dense obstacles in the jet, and specific applications to 0727 - 115 and BL Lacertae are considered. In the case of 0727 - 115, it is pointed out that the nonuniformity of the swing rate and the apparent oscillations of the degree of polarization could be a consequence of relativistic aberration.

Carbon-coated hierarchical SnO2 hollow spheres for lithium ion batteries

Hierarchical SnO2 hollow spheres self-assembled from nanosheets were prepared with and without carbon coating. The combination of nanosized architecture, hollow structure, and a conductive carbon layer endows the SnO2-based anode with improved specific capacity and cycling stability, making it more promising for use in lithium ion batteries.