Projecting marine fish production and catch potential in Bangladesh in the 21st century under long-term environmental change and management scenarios

The fisheries sector is crucial to the Bangladeshi economy and wellbeing, accounting for 4.4% of national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 22.8% of agriculture sector production, and supplying ca.60% of the national animal protein intake. Fish is vital to the 16 million Bangladeshis living near the coast, a number that has doubled since the 1980s. Here we develop and apply tools to project the long term productive capacity of Bangladesh marine fisheries under climate and fisheries management scenarios, based on downscaling a global climate model, using associated river flow and nutrient loading estimates, projecting high resolution changes in physical and biochemical ocean properties, and eventually projecting fish production and catch potential under different fishing mortality targets. We place particular interest on Hilsa shad (Tenualosa ilisha), which accounts for ca.11% of total catches, and Bombay duck (Harpadon nehereus), a low price fish that is the second highest catch in Bangladesh and is highly consumed by low income communities. It is concluded that the impacts of climate change, under greenhouse emissions scenario A1B, are likely to reduce the potential fish production in the Bangladesh Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) by less than 10%. However, these impacts are larger for the two target species. Under sustainable management practices we expect Hilsa shad catches to show a minor decline in potential catch by 2030 but a significant (25%) decline by 2060. However, if overexploitation is allowed catches are projected to fall much further, by almost 95% by 2060, compared to the Business as Usual scenario for the start of the 21st century. For Bombay duck, potential catches by 2060 under sustainable scenarios will produce a decline of less than 20% compared to current catches. The results demonstrate that management can mitigate or exacerbate the effects of climate change on ecosystem productivity.

Gross and net nitrogen transformation rates and availability in late summer in tall shrub and birch hummock ecosystems of the Canadian low Arctic

Climate change is occurring most rapidly in the Arctic where warming has been twice as fast as the rest of the globe over the last few decades. Arctic soils contain a vast store of carbon and warmer arctic soils may mediate current atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global warming trends. Warmer soils could increase nutrient availability to plants, leading to increased primary production and sequestration of CO2. Presumably because of these effects of warming on shrub ecosystems, shrubs have been expanding across the arctic over the last 50 years, Arctic shrub expansion may track or cause changes in nutrient cycling and availability that favour growth of larger, denser shrubs. This study aimed at measuring gross and net nitrogen cycling rates, major soil nitrogen and carbon pool sizes, and elucidating controls on nutrient cycling and availability between a mesic birch (Betula nana) hummock tundra ecosystem and an ecosystem of dense, tall, birch (B. nana) shrubs. Nitrogen cycling and availability was enhanced at the tall shrub ecosystem compared to the birch hummock ecosystem. Net nitrogen immobilization by microbes was approximately threefold greater at the tall shrub ecosystem. This was in part because of larger microbial biomass nitrogen and carbon (interpreted as a larger microbial community) at the tall shrub ecosystem. Nitrogen inputs via litter were significantly larger at the tall shrub ecosystem and were hypothesized to be the major contributor to the higher dissolved organic and inorganic nitrogen pools in the soil at the tall shrub ecosystem. The results from this study suggest a positive feedback mechanism between litter nitrogen inputs and the enhancement of nitrogen cycling and availability as a driver of shrub expansion across the Arctic.

Gross anatomy of the muscle systems and associated innervation of Apatemon cobitidis proterorhini metacercaria (Trematoda: Strigeidea), as visualized by confocal microscopy.:Strigeidea), as visualized by confocal microscopy

The major muscle systems of the metacercaria of the strigeid trematode, Apatemon cobitidis proterorhini have been examined using phalloidin as a site-specific probe for filamentous actin. Regional differences were evident in the organization of the body wall musculature of the forebody and hindbody, the former comprising outer circular, intermediate longitudinal and inner diagonal fibres, the latter having the inner diagonal fibres replaced with an extra layer of more widely spaced circular muscle. Three orientations of muscle fibres (equatorial, meridional, radial) were discernible in the oral sucker, acetabulum and paired lappets. Large longitudinal extensor and flexor muscles project into the hindbody where they connect to the body wall or end blindly. Innervation to the muscle systems of Apatemon was examined by immunocytochemistry, using antibodies to known myoactive substances: the flatworm FMRFamide-related neuropeptide (FaRP), GYIRFamide, and the biogenic amine, 5-hydroxytryptamine (5-HT). Strong immunostaining for both peptidergic and serotoninergic components was found in the central nervous system and confocal microscopic mapping of the distribution of these neuroactive substances revealed they occupied separate neuronal pathways. In the peripheral nervous system, GYIRFamide-immunoreactivity was extensive and, in particular, associated with the innervation of all attachment structures; serotoninergic fibres, on the other hand, were localized to the oral sucker and pharynx and to regions along the anterior margins of the forebody.

Benchmark Status in Fixed-Income Asset Markets

What is a benchmark bond? We provide a formal theoretical treatment of this concept that relates endogenously determined benchmark status to the location of price discovery and we derive its implications. We describe a rich but little used econometric technique for identifying the benchmark that is congruent with our theoretical framework. We apply this in the context of the US corporate bond market and to the natural experiment that occurred when benchmark status was contested in the European sovereign bond markets after the introduction of the Euro. We show that France provides the benchmark at most maturities in the Euro-denominated sovereign bond market and that IBM provides the benchmark in the 10 year maturity in the US corporate bond market.

Interobserver agreement of the Gross Motor Function Classification System in an ambulant population of children with cerebral palsy

Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) level was reported by three independent assessors in a population of children with cerebral palsy (CP) aged between 4 and 18 years (n=184; 112 males, 72 females; mean age 10y 10mo [SD 3y 7mo]). A software algorithm also provided a computed GMFCS level from a regional CP registry. Participants had clinical diagnoses of unilateral (n=94) and bilateral (n=84) spastic CP, ataxia (n=4), dyskinesia (n=1), and hypotonia (n=1), and could walk independently with or without the use of an aid (GMFCS Levels I-IV). Research physiotherapist (n=184) and parent/guardian data (n=178) were collected in a research environment. Data from the child's community physiotherapist (n=143) were obtained by postal questionnaire. Results, using the kappa statistic with linear weighting (?1w), showed good agreement between the parent/guardian and research physiotherapist (?1w=0.75) with more moderate levels of agreement between the clinical physiotherapist and researcher (?1w=0.64) and the clinical physiotherapist and parent/guardian (?1w=0.57). Agreement was consistently better for older children (>2y). This study has shown that agreement with parent report increases with therapists'experience of the GMFCS and knowledge of the child at the time of grading. Substantial agreement between a computed GMFCS and an experienced therapist (?1w=0.74) also demonstrates the potential for extrapolation of GMFCS rating from an existing CP registry, providing the latter has sufficient data on locomotor ability.