948 resultados para generalized additive model


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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Pós-graduação em Engenharia Mecânica - FEG

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Pós-graduação em Enfermagem (mestrado profissional) - FMB

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Aim To assess the distribution, group size, seasonal occurrence and annual trends of cetaceans. Location The study area included all major inland waters of Southeast Alaska. Methods Between 1991 and 2007, cetacean surveys were conducted by observers who kept a constant watch when the vessel was underway and recorded all cetaceans encountered. For each species, we examined distributional patterns, group size, seasonal occurrence and annual trends. Analysis of variance (anova F) was used to test for differences in group sizes between multiple means, and Student’s t-test was used to detect differences between pairwise means. Cetacean seasonal occurrence and annual trends were investigated using a generalized linear model framework. Results Humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) were seen throughout the region, with numbers lowest in spring and highest in the fall. Fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus) and minke whale (Balaenoptera acutorostrata) distributions were more restricted than that reported for humpback whales, and the low number of sightings precluded evaluating seasonal trends. Three killer whale (Orcinus orca) eco-types were documented with distributions occurring throughout inland waters. Seasonal patterns were not detected or could not be evaluated for resident and offshore killer whales, respectively; however, the transient eco-type was more abundant in the summer. Dall’s porpoise (Phocoenoides dalli) were distributed throughout the region, with more sightings in spring and summer than in fall. Harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) distribution was clumped, with concentrations occurring in the Icy Strait/Glacier Bay and Wrangell areas and with no evidence of seasonality. Pacific white-sided dolphins (Lagenorhynchus obliquidens) were observed only occasionally, with more sightings in the spring. For most species, group size varied on both an annual and seasonal basis. Main conclusions Seven cetacean species occupy the inland waters of Southeast Alaska, with distribution, group size, seasonal occurrence and annual trends varying by species. Future studies that compare spatial and temporal patterns with other features (e.g. oceanography, prey resources) may help in identifying the key factors that support the high density and biodiversity of cetaceans found in this region. An increased understanding of the region’s marine ecology is an essential step towards ensuring the long-term conservation of cetaceans in Southeast Alaska.

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Background: Several models have been designed to predict survival of patients with heart failure. These, while available and widely used for both stratifying and deciding upon different treatment options on the individual level, have several limitations. Specifically, some clinical variables that may influence prognosis may have an influence that change over time. Statistical models that include such characteristic may help in evaluating prognosis. The aim of the present study was to analyze and quantify the impact of modeling heart failure survival allowing for covariates with time-varying effects known to be independent predictors of overall mortality in this clinical setting. Methodology: Survival data from an inception cohort of five hundred patients diagnosed with heart failure functional class III and IV between 2002 and 2004 and followed-up to 2006 were analyzed by using the proportional hazards Cox model and variations of the Cox's model and also of the Aalen's additive model. Principal Findings: One-hundred and eighty eight (188) patients died during follow-up. For patients under study, age, serum sodium, hemoglobin, serum creatinine, and left ventricular ejection fraction were significantly associated with mortality. Evidence of time-varying effect was suggested for the last three. Both high hemoglobin and high LV ejection fraction were associated with a reduced risk of dying with a stronger initial effect. High creatinine, associated with an increased risk of dying, also presented an initial stronger effect. The impact of age and sodium were constant over time. Conclusions: The current study points to the importance of evaluating covariates with time-varying effects in heart failure models. The analysis performed suggests that variations of Cox and Aalen models constitute a valuable tool for identifying these variables. The implementation of covariates with time-varying effects into heart failure prognostication models may reduce bias and increase the specificity of such models.

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Abstract Background The success of HPV vaccination programs will require awareness regarding HPV associated diseases and the benefits of HPV vaccination for the general population. The aim of this study was to assess the level of awareness and knowledge of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, cervical cancer prevention, vaccines, and factors associated with HPV awareness among young women after birth of the first child. Methods This analysis is part of a cross-sectional study carried out at Hospital Maternidade Leonor Mendes de Barros, a large public maternity hospital in Sao Paulo. Primiparous women (15-24 years) who gave birth in that maternity hospital were included. A questionnaire that included questions concerning knowledge of HPV, cervical cancer, and vaccines was applied. To estimate the association of HPV awareness with selected factors, prevalence ratios (PR) were estimated using a generalized linear model (GLM). Results Three hundred and one primiparous women were included; 37% of them reported that they "had ever heard about HPV", but only 19% and 7%, respectively, knew that HPV is a sexually transmitted infection (STI) and that it can cause cervical cancer. Seventy-four percent of interviewees mentioned the preventive character of vaccines and all participants affirmed that they would accept HPV vaccination after delivery. In the multivariate analysis, only increasing age (P for trend = 0.021) and previous STI (P < 0.001) were factors independently associated with HPV awareness ("had ever heard about HPV"). Conclusions This survey indicated that knowledge about the association between HPV and cervical cancer among primiparous young women is low. Therefore, these young low-income primiparous women could benefit greatly from educational interventions to encourage primary and secondary cervical cancer prevention programs.

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Dasyatis guttata has been target of artisanal fisheries in the coast of Bahia (Northeast Brazil) mainly by “arraieira” (gillnet) and “grozeira” (bottom long-line), but until now there is no stock assessment study. One of the important data for this knowledge is reliable indices of abundance. The aims of the present work are to: (1) estimate the best predictor for relative abundance (catch-per-unit-of-effort, CPUE), examining whether catch (production – kg) was related to: soak time of the gear, size of the gillnet or number of hooks, applying generalized linear model (GLM); (2) estimate the annual CPUE (kg/hooks and kg/m) averaged by gear; and (3) assess the temporal CPUE variance. Based on monthly sampling between January 2012 and January 2013, 222 landings by grozeira and 76 by arraiaiera were recorded in the two landing sites in Todos os Santos Bay, Bahia. A total of 14,550 kg (average = 44 kg/month) of D. guttata was captured. Models for both gears were highly significant (P < 0.0001). The analysis indicated that the most appropriate variable for CPUE analysis was the size of the gillnet (P < 0.001) and the number of hooks (P < 0.0001). Soak time of the gear was not significant for both gears (P = 0.4). High residual deviance expresses the complexity of the relations between ecosystem factors and other fisheries factors affecting relative abundance, which were not considered in this study. The average CPUE by grozeira was 6.39 kg/100 hooks ± 8.89 and by arraieira, 1.47 kg/100 m ± 1.66 over the year. Kruskal-Wallis test showed effect of the month on the mean grozeira CPUE (P = <0.001), but no effect (P = 0.096) on the mean arraieira CPUE. Grozeira CPUE values were highest in December and March, and lowest between May to August

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Deformability is often a crucial to the conception of many civil-engineering structural elements. Also, design is all the more burdensome if both long- and short-term deformability has to be considered. In this thesis, long- and short-term deformability has been studied from the material and the structural modelling point of view. Moreover, two materials have been handled: pultruded composites and concrete. A new finite element model for thin-walled beams has been introduced. As a main assumption, cross-sections rigid are considered rigid in their plane; this hypothesis replaces that of the classical beam theory of plane cross-sections in the deformed state. That also allows reducing the total number of degrees of freedom, and therefore making analysis faster compared with twodimensional finite elements. Longitudinal direction warping is left free, allowing describing phenomena such as the shear lag. The new finite-element model has been first applied to concrete thin-walled beams (such as roof high span girders or bridge girders) subject to instantaneous service loadings. Concrete in his cracked state has been considered through a smeared crack model for beams under bending. At a second stage, the FE-model has been extended to the viscoelastic field and applied to pultruded composite beams under sustained loadings. The generalized Maxwell model has been adopted. As far as materials are concerned, long-term creep tests have been carried out on pultruded specimens. Both tension and shear tests have been executed. Some specimen has been strengthened with carbon fibre plies to reduce short- and long- term deformability. Tests have been done in a climate room and specimens kept 2 years under constant load in time. As for concrete, a model for tertiary creep has been proposed. The basic idea is to couple the UMLV linear creep model with a damage model in order to describe nonlinearity. An effective strain tensor, weighting the total and the elasto-damaged strain tensors, controls damage evolution through the damage loading function. Creep strains are related to the effective stresses (defined by damage models) and so associated to the intact material.

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The aim of this study was to develop a model capable to capture the different contributions which characterize the nonlinear behaviour of reinforced concrete structures. In particular, especially for non slender structures, the contribution to the nonlinear deformation due to bending may be not sufficient to determine the structural response. Two different models characterized by a fibre beam-column element are here proposed. These models can reproduce the flexure-shear interaction in the nonlinear range, with the purpose to improve the analysis in shear-critical structures. The first element discussed is based on flexibility formulation which is associated with the Modified Compression Field Theory as material constitutive law. The other model described in this thesis is based on a three-field variational formulation which is associated with a 3D generalized plastic-damage model as constitutive relationship. The first model proposed in this thesis was developed trying to combine a fibre beamcolumn element based on the flexibility formulation with the MCFT theory as constitutive relationship. The flexibility formulation, in fact, seems to be particularly effective for analysis in the nonlinear field. Just the coupling between the fibre element to model the structure and the shear panel to model the individual fibres allows to describe the nonlinear response associated to flexure and shear, and especially their interaction in the nonlinear field. The model was implemented in an original matlab® computer code, for describing the response of generic structures. The simulations carried out allowed to verify the field of working of the model. Comparisons with available experimental results related to reinforced concrete shears wall were performed in order to validate the model. These results are characterized by the peculiarity of distinguishing the different contributions due to flexure and shear separately. The presented simulations were carried out, in particular, for monotonic loading. The model was tested also through numerical comparisons with other computer programs. Finally it was applied for performing a numerical study on the influence of the nonlinear shear response for non slender reinforced concrete (RC) members. Another approach to the problem has been studied during a period of research at the University of California Berkeley. The beam formulation follows the assumptions of the Timoshenko shear beam theory for the displacement field, and uses a three-field variational formulation in the derivation of the element response. A generalized plasticity model is implemented for structural steel and a 3D plastic-damage model is used for the simulation of concrete. The transverse normal stress is used to satisfy the transverse equilibrium equations of at each control section, this criterion is also used for the condensation of degrees of freedom from the 3D constitutive material to a beam element. In this thesis is presented the beam formulation and the constitutive relationships, different analysis and comparisons are still carrying out between the two model presented.

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For the safety assessment of radioactive waste, the possibility of radionuclide migration has to be considered. Since Np (and also Th due to the long-lived 232-Th) will be responsible for the greatest amount of radioactivity one million years after discharge from the reactor, its (im)-mobilization in the geosphere is of great importance. Furthermore, the chemistry of Np(V) is quite similar (but not identical) to the chemistry of Pu(V). Three species of neptunium may be found in the near field of the waste disposal, but pentavalent neptunium is the most abundant species under a wide range of natural conditions. Within this work, the interaction of Np(V) with the clay mineral montmorillonite and melanodins (as model substances for humic acids) was studied. The sorption of neptunium onto gibbsite, a model clay for montmorillonite, was also investigated. The sorption of neptunium onto γ-alumina and montmorillonite was studied in a parallel doctoral work by S. Dierking. Neptunium is only found in ultra trace amounts in the environment. Therefore, sensitive and specific methods are needed for its determination. The sorption was determined by γ spectroscopy and LSC for the whole concentration range studied. In addition the combination of these techniques with ultrafiltration allowed the study of Np(V) complexation with melanoidins. Regrettably, the available speciation methods (e.g. CE-ICP-MS and EXAFS) are not capable to detect the environmentally relevant neptunium concentrations. Therefore, a combination of batch experiments and speciation analyses was performed. Further, the preparation of hybrid clay-based materials (HCM) montmorillonitemelanoidins for sorption studies was achieved. The formation of hybrid materials begins in the interlayers of the montmorillonite, and then the organic material spreads over the surface of the mineral. The sorption of Np onto HCM was studied at the environmentally relevant concentrations and the results obtained were compared with those predicted by the linear additive model by Samadfam. The sorption of neptunium onto gibbsite was studied in batch experiments and the sorption maximum determined at pH~8.5. The sorption isotherm pointed to the presence of strong and weak sorption sites in gibbsite. The Np speciation was studied by using EXAFS, which showed that the sorbed species was Np(V). The influence of M42 type melanodins on the sorption of Np(V) onto montmorillonite was also investigated at pH 7. The sorption of the melanoidins was affected by the order in which the components were added and by ionic strength. The sorption of Np was affected by ionic strength, pointing to outer sphere sorption, whereas the presence of increasing amounts of melanoidins had little influence on Np sorption.

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The thesis deals with numerical algorithms for fluid-structure interaction problems with application in blood flow modelling. It starts with a short introduction on the mathematical description of incompressible viscous flow with non-Newtonian viscosity and a moving linear viscoelastic structure. The mathematical model consists of the generalized Navier-Stokes equation used for the description of fluid flow and the generalized string model for structure movement. The arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian approach is used in order to take into account moving computational domain. A part of the thesis is devoted to the discussion on the non-Newtonian behaviour of shear-thinning fluids, which is in our case blood, and derivation of two non-Newtonian models frequently used in the blood flow modelling. Further we give a brief overview on recent fluid-structure interaction schemes with discussion about the difficulties arising in numerical modelling of blood flow. Our main contribution lies in numerical and experimental study of a new loosely-coupled partitioned scheme called the kinematic splitting fluid-structure interaction algorithm. We present stability analysis for a coupled problem of non-Newtonian shear-dependent fluids in moving domains with viscoelastic boundaries. Here, we assume both, the nonlinearity in convective as well is diffusive term. We analyse the convergence of proposed numerical scheme for a simplified fluid model of the Oseen type. Moreover, we present series of experiments including numerical error analysis, comparison of hemodynamic parameters for the Newtonian and non-Newtonian fluids and comparison of several physiologically relevant computational geometries in terms of wall displacement and wall shear stress. Numerical analysis and extensive experimental study for several standard geometries confirm reliability and accuracy of the proposed kinematic splitting scheme in order to approximate fluid-structure interaction problems.