Adaptive management, international co-operation and planning for marine conservation hotspots in a changing climate

Acknowledgements This work received funding from the MASTS pooling initiative (The Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland) and their support is gratefully acknowledged. MASTS is funded by the Scottish Funding Council (Grant reference HR09011) and contributing institutions.

Adaptive management, international co-operation and planning for marine conservation hotspots in a changing climate

Acknowledgements This work received funding from the MASTS pooling initiative (The Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland) and their support is gratefully acknowledged. MASTS is funded by the Scottish Funding Council (Grant reference HR09011) and contributing institutions.

Projecting Changes in the Distribution and Productivity of Living Marine Resources: A Critical Review of the Suite of Modeling Approaches used in the Large European Project VECTORS

We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.

Projecting Changes in the Distribution and Productivity of Living Marine Resources: A Critical Review of the Suite of Modeling Approaches used in the Large European Project VECTORS

We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.

End-to-end modelling for an ecosystem approach to fisheries in the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem

This work represents an original contribution to the methodology for ecosystem models' development as well as the rst attempt of an end-to-end (E2E) model of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem (NHCE). The main purpose of the developed model is to build a tool for ecosystem-based management and decision making, reason why the credibility of the model is essential, and this can be assessed through confrontation to data. Additionally, the NHCE exhibits a high climatic and oceanographic variability at several scales, the major source of interannual variability being the interruption of the upwelling seasonality by the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which has direct e ects on larval survival and sh recruitment success. Fishing activity can also be highly variable, depending on the abundance and accessibility of the main shery resources. This context brings the two main methodological questions addressed in this thesis, through the development of an end-to-end model coupling the high trophic level model OSMOSE to the hydrodynamics and biogeochemical model ROMS-PISCES: i) how to calibrate ecosystem models using time series data and ii) how to incorporate the impact of the interannual variability of the environment and shing. First, this thesis highlights some issues related to the confrontation of complex ecosystem models to data and proposes a methodology for a sequential multi-phases calibration of ecosystem models. We propose two criteria to classify the parameters of a model: the model dependency and the time variability of the parameters. Then, these criteria along with the availability of approximate initial estimates are used as decision rules to determine which parameters need to be estimated, and their precedence order in the sequential calibration process. Additionally, a new Evolutionary Algorithm designed for the calibration of stochastic models (e.g Individual Based Model) and optimized for maximum likelihood estimation has been developed and applied to the calibration of the OSMOSE model to time series data. The environmental variability is explicit in the model: the ROMS-PISCES model forces the OSMOSE model and drives potential bottom-up e ects up the foodweb through plankton and sh trophic interactions, as well as through changes in the spatial distribution of sh. The latter e ect was taken into account using presence/ absence species distribution models which are traditionally assessed through a confusion matrix and the statistical metrics associated to it. However, when considering the prediction of the habitat against time, the variability in the spatial distribution of the habitat can be summarized and validated using the emerging patterns from the shape of the spatial distributions. We modeled the potential habitat of the main species of the Humboldt Current Ecosystem using several sources of information ( sheries, scienti c surveys and satellite monitoring of vessels) jointly with environmental data from remote sensing and in situ observations, from 1992 to 2008. The potential habitat was predicted over the study period with monthly resolution, and the model was validated using quantitative and qualitative information of the system using a pattern oriented approach. The nal ROMS-PISCES-OSMOSE E2E ecosystem model for the NHCE was calibrated using our evolutionary algorithm and a likelihood approach to t monthly time series data of landings, abundance indices and catch at length distributions from 1992 to 2008. To conclude, some potential applications of the model for shery management are presented and their limitations and perspectives discussed.

Microscopy- or DNA-based analyses: Which methodology gives a truer picture of stream-dwelling decomposer fungal diversity?

We assessed aquatic hyphomycete diversity in autumn and spring on oak leaves decomposing in five streams along a gradient of eutrophication in the Northwest of Portugal. Diversity was assessed through microscopy-based (identification by spore morphology) and DNA-based techniques (Denaturing Gradient Gel Electrophoresis and 454 pyrosequencing). Pyrosequencing revealed five times greater diversity than DGGE. About 21% of all aquatic hyphomycete species were exclusively detected by pyrosequencing and 26% exclusively by spore identification. In some streams, more than half of the recorded species would have remained undetected if we had relied only on spore identification. Nevertheless, in spring aquatic hyphomycete diversity was higher based on spore identification, probably because many species occurring in this season are not yet connected to ITS barcodes in genetic databases. Pyrosequencing was a powerful tool for revealing aquatic hyphomycete diversity on decomposing plant litter in streams and we strongly encourage researchers to continue the effort in barcoding fungal species.

Phylogenetic alpha and beta diversities of butterfly communities correlate with climate in the western Swiss Alps

The observation of non-random phylogenetic distribution of traits in communities provides evidence for niche-based community assembly. Environment may influence the phylogenetic structure of communities because traits determining how species respond to prevailing conditions can be phylogenetically conserved. In this study, we investigate the variation of butterfly species richness and of phylogenetic - and -diversities along temperature and plant species richness gradients. Our study indicates that butterfly richness is independently positively correlated to temperature and plant species richness in the study area. However, the variation of phylogenetic - and -diversities is only correlated to temperature. The significant phylogenetic clustering at high elevation suggests that cold temperature filters butterfly lineages, leading to communities mostly composed of closely related species adapted to those climatic conditions. These results suggest that in colder and more severe conditions at high elevations deterministic processes and not purely stochastic events drive the assemblage of butterfly communities.

Diversity of zooplankton assemblages at Station L4, Western English Channel, measured using next generation DNA sequencing

Background: Zooplankton play an important role in our oceans, in biogeochemical cycling and providing a food source for commercially important fish larvae. However, difficulties in correctly identifying zooplankton hinder our understanding of their roles in marine ecosystem functioning, and can prevent detection of long term changes in their community structure. The advent of massively parallel Next Generation Sequencing technology allows DNA sequence data to be recovered directly from whole community samples. Here we assess the ability of such sequencing to quantify the richness and diversity of a mixed zooplankton assemblage from a productive monitoring site in the Western English Channel. Methodology/Principle Findings: Plankton WP2 replicate net hauls (200 µm) were taken at the Western Channel Observatory long-term monitoring station L4 in September 2010 and January 2011. These samples were analysed by microscopy and metagenetic analysis of the 18S nuclear small subunit ribosomal RNA gene using the 454 pyrosequencing platform. Following quality control a total of 419,042 sequences were obtained for all samples. The sequences clustered in to 205 operational taxonomic units using a 97% similarity cut-off. Allocation of taxonomy by comparison with the National Centre for Biotechnology Information database identified 138 OTUs to species level, 11 to genus level and 1 to order, <2.5% of sequences were classified as unknowns. By comparison a skilled microscopic analyst was able to routinely enumerate only 75 taxonomic groups. Conclusions: The percentage of OTUs assigned to major eukaryotic taxonomic groups broadly aligns between the metagenetic and morphological analysis and are dominated by Copepoda. However, the metagenetics reveals a previously hidden taxonomic richness, especially for Copepoda and meroplankton such as Bivalvia, Gastropoda and Polychaeta. It also reveals rare species and parasites. We conclude that Next Generation Sequencing of 18S amplicons is a powerful tool for estimating diversity and species richness of zooplankton communities.

Investigation of plant genetic-microbiome interactions in different plant species

The rhizosphere, i.e. the soil surrounding the plant roots, and endosphere, i.e. the microbial communities within the plant organs harbors microbes known to influence root and plant physiological processes. An important question is to what extent plant species, genotypes and environmental conditions affect bacterial and fungal communities. The objectives of the first research study were to unravel and compare the rhizospheric microbiota of grape in two independent vineyards using 16S and ITS amplicon sequencing, evaluate location and varietal effects, and test the correlation between bioavailable copper levels and other soil parameters with microbiota composition and diversity. Our results showed that the microbial alpha diversity based on Shannon index differed significantly between vineyards while it did not differ between two grape cultivars. In the second study, we were focusing on different wheat species and genotypes such as Bread Wheat, Wild Emmer Wheat, Domesticated Emmer Wheat, Durum Wheat Landraces, Durum Wheat cultivars, T. monococcum and triticale in two fields located in Bologna and Foggia. The objectives of this research experiment were to elucidate and compare the rhizospheric and endophytic microbiota of 30 diverse wheat genotypes in two different fields using 16S amplicon sequencing. Our results showed that the microbial alpha diversity based on Shannon index differed significantly between fields of Bologna and Foggia, in which Bologna had a higher diversity in respect to Foggia for both rhizospheric and endophytic communities. Using Shannon index there was significant differences, for instance, between Durum Emmer Wheat and Wild Emmer Wheat in Bologna, and between Bread Wheat and Durum Wheat Landraces in Foggia. Our results contribute to understand the role of wheat species and genotype and the filed management on the root-microbe-soil interactions in the perspective of understanding their impact on crop systems sustainability.

Characterization of fungal soil communities by F-RISA and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi from Araucaria angustifolia forest soils after replanting and wildfire disturbances

The Fungal Ribosomal Intergenic Spacer Analysis (F-RISA) was used to characterize soil fungal communities from three ecosystems of Araucaria angustifolia from Brazil: a native forest and two replanted forest ecosystems, one of them with a past history of wildfire. The arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) infection was evaluated in Araucaria roots of 18-month-old axenic plants previously inoculated with soils collected from those areas in a greenhouse experiment. The principal component analysis of F-RISA profiles showed different soil fungal community between the three studied areas. Sixty three percent of F-RISA fragments amplified in the soil and the substrate samples presented lengths between 500 and 700 bp. The number of Operational Taxonomic Units (OTUs) was 34 for soil and 38 for substrate, however, more fragments were detected in soil (214) than in substrate (163). An in silico F-RISA analysis to compare our data with ITS1-5.8S-ITS2 sequences from NCBI database showed the presence of Ascomycota, Basidiomycota and Glomeromycota among the soil and substrate fungal communities. AMF infection was higher in plants inoculated with soil from the native forest and the replanted forest with wildfire, both presenting similar chemical characteristics but with different disturbance levels. These results indicate that soil chemical composition may influence the soil fungal community structures rather than the anthropogenic or fire disturbances.

Nitrogen relations of natural and disturbed plant communities in tropical Australia

Nitrogen relations of natural and disturbed tropical plant communities in northern Australia (Kakadu National Park) were studied. Plant and soil N characteristics suggested that differences in N source utilisation occur at community and species level. Leaf and xylem sap N concentrations of plants in different communities were correlated with the availability of inorganic soil N (NH4+ and NO3-). In general, rates of leaf NO3- assimilation were low. Even in communities with a higher N status, including deciduous monsoon forest, disturbed wetland, and a revegetated mine waste rock dump, levels of leaf nitrate reductase, xylem and leaf NO3 levels were considerably lower than those that have been reported for eutrophic communities. Although NO3- assimilation in escarpment and eucalypt woodlands, and wetland, was generally low, within these communities there was a suite of species that exhibited a greater capacity for NO3- assimilation. These high-NO3- species were mainly annuals, resprouting herbs or deciduous trees that had leaves with high N contents. Ficus, a high-NO3- species, was associated with soil exhibiting higher rates of net mineralisation and net nitrification. Low-NO3- species were evergreen perennials with low leaf N concentrations. A third group of plants, which assimilated NO3- (albeit at lower rates than the high-NO3- species), and had high-N leaves, were leguminous species. Acacia species, common in woodlands, had the highest leaf N contents of all woody species. Acacia species appeared to have the greatest potential to utilise the entire spectrum of available N sources. This versatility in N source utilisation may be important in relation to their high tissue N status and comparatively short life cycle. Differences in N utilisation are discussed in the context of species life strategies and mycorrhizal associations.

Heterogeneity in inoculum potential and effectiveness of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi

Arbuscular mycorrhizae are symbiotic associations among glomalean fungi and plant roots that often lead to enhanced water and nutrient uptake and plant growth. We describe experiments to test whether inoculum potential of arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungal communities varies spatially within a broadleaf temperate forest, and also whether there is variability in the effectiveness of AM fungal communities in enhancing seedling growth. Inoculum potential of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi in a temperate broad-leaved forest did not vary significantly among sites. Inoculum potential, measured as the extent to which the roots of red maple seedlings that had been germinated on sterile sand and then transplanted into the forest, were colonized by AM fungi, was similar in floodplain and higher elevation sites. It was as similar under ectomycorrhizal oaks as it was under red maples and other AM tree species. It was also similar among sites with deciduous understory shrubs with arbuscular mycorrhizae (spicebush, Lindera benzoin) and those with evergreen vegetation with ericoid mycorrhizae (mountain laurel, Kalmia latifolia). Where spicebush was the dominant understory shrub, inoculum potential was greater under gaps in the canopy than within the understory. Survivorship of transplanted red maple seedlings varied significantly over sites but was not strongly correlated with measures of inoculum potential. In a greenhouse growth experiment, arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal communities obtained from tree roots from the forest had different effects on plant growth. Seedlings inoculated with roots of red maple had twice the leaf area after 10 wk of growth compared to the AM community obtained from roots of southern red oaks. Thus, although there appears to be little heterogeneity in inoculum potential in the forest, there are differences in the effectiveness of different inocula. These effects have the potential to affect tree species diversity in forests by modifying patterns of seedling recruitment.

Priming of a DNA metabarcoding approach for species identification and inventory in marine macrobenthic communities

Dissertação de mestrado em Molecular Genetics

Phylogenetic relatedness and proboscis length contribute to structuring bumblebee communities in the extremes of abiotic and biotic gradients

Aim To improve our understanding of how biological communities assemble, we investigated changes in bumblebee communities in space along an elevation gradient. We assessed how much deterministic abiotic and biotic factors shape community assembly. We focused on proboscis length (influencing the species' dietary regime) and phylogenetic relatedness to investigate if competition and environmental filtering occur in more and less productive climates, respectively. Location Western Swiss Alps. Methods We recorded bumblebee species in 149 plots along a 1800-m wide elevation gradient. We contrasted two major clades of bumblebees, a short-tongued and a long-tongued clade. We calculated the phylogenetic and proboscis-length diversity of the bumblebee communities and compared these observed data with a random distribution to detect clustering likely to be caused by environmental filtering or overdispersion likely to be caused by competition. We compared the prevalence of clustered and overdispersed communities along the gradients of plant species richness (biotic) and temperature (abiotic). Results Under colder conditions, where plant species richness is lower and floral resources are scarcer, the clade with shorter proboscides prevails over the clade with longer proboscides, and communities are functionally and phylogenetic clustered. Under warmer conditions, we found phylogenetic but not functional overdispersion in communities. Main conclusions We show for the first time a strong correlation between phylogenetic relatedness, proboscis length and species distribution along temperature and plant richness gradients shaping bumblebee communities. The low temperatures and low levels of plant species richness limit the dispersal of the species from the long-tongued clade, which have more specialized diets, into high-elevation areas. Competition under warmer conditions may produce communities composed of less closely related species that share distinct ecological preferences. Our empirical results corroborate theoretical expectation as well as experiments on the prevalence of deterministic processes in the most severe and most productive parts of environmental gradients.

The ecological significance of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal effects on clonal reproduction in plants

The population ecology of clonal plants depends on the number and distribution of ramets formed during growth. Variation in clonal reproduction has previously been explained by variation in effects of abiotic resource heterogeneity and by plant genotypic variation. Different co-occurring species of the mutualistic arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) have been shown to differentially alter growth traits of Prunella vulgaris which we hypothesize would lead to changes in clonal reproduction. Two experiments were carried out to test whether different co-occurring mycorrhizal fungi significantly influence clonal reproduction of P. vulgaris whether this effect also occurs when P. vulgaris is growing in an artificial plant community and how the effects compare with plant genotype effects on clonal growth of P. vulgaris. In the first experiment the number of ramets of P. vulgaris growing in a plant community of simulated calcareous grassland was significantly affected by inoculation with different mycorrhizal fungi. The number of ramets produced by P. vulgaris differed by a factor of up to 1.8 with different mycorrhizal fungi. The fungal effects on the number of new ramets were independent of their effects on the biomass of P. vulgaris. In a second experiment 17 different genotypes of P. vulgaris were inoculated with different mycorrhizal fungi. There were significant main effects of genotypes and mycorrhizal fungi on clonal reproduction of P. vulgaris. The effect of different mycorrhizal fungi contributed more than the effect of plant genotype to variation in size and ramet production. However mean stolon length and spacer length which determine the spatial arrangement of ramets were only significantly affected by plant genotype. There were no mycorrhizal fungal X plant genotype interactions on clonal growth of P. vulgaris indicating that there is no obvious evidence that selection pressures would favor further coevolution between P. vulgaris and mycorrhizal fungal species. In natural communities plants can be colonized by several different AMF at the same time. The effect of the mixed AMF treatment on the growth and clonal reproduction of P. vulgaris could not be predicted from the responses of the plants to the single AMF To what extent however the patterns of colonization by different AMF differ among plants in a natural community is unknown. Since the effects of AMF on growth and clonal reproduction occur on a population of P. vulgaris in a microcosm plant community and because the effects are also as great as those caused by plant genotypic variation we conclude that the effects are strong enough to potentially affect population size and variation of clonal plants in communities.