Evaluating the Survey of Professional Forecasters probability distributions of expected inflation based on derived event probability forecasts

Techniques are proposed for evaluating forecast probabilities of events. The tools are especially useful when, as in the case of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) expected probability distributions of inflation, recourse cannot be made to the method of construction in the evaluation of the forecasts. The tests of efficiency and conditional efficiency are applied to the forecast probabilities of events of interest derived from the SPF distributions, and supplement a whole-density evaluation of the SPF distributions based on the probability integral transform approach.

The influence of anxiety on the initial selection of emotional faces presented in binocular rivalry

Neurocognitive theories of anxiety predict that threat-related information can be evaluated before attentional selection, and can influence behaviour differentially in high anxious compared to low anxious individuals. We investigate this further by presenting emotional and neutral faces in an adapted binocular rivalry paradigm. We show that the initial selection of emotional faces presented in binocular rivalry is highly influenced by self-reported state and trait anxiety-level. Heightened anxiety was correlated with increased perception of angry and fearful faces, and decreased perception of happy expressions. These results are consistent with recent evidence of involuntary selection of threat in anxiety.

Root distributions of Australian herbaceous perennial legumes in response to phosphorus placement

Many Australian plant species have specific root adaptations for growth in phosphorus-impoverished soils, and are often sensitive to high external P concentrations. The growth responses of native Australian legumes in agricultural soils with elevated P availability in the surface horizons are unknown. The aim of these experiments was to test the hypothesis that increased P concentration in surface soil would reduce root proliferation at depth in native legumes. The effect of P placement on root distribution was assessed for two Australian legumes, Kennedia prorepens F. Muell. and Lotus australis Andrews, and the exotic Medicago sativa L. Three treatments were established in a low-P loam soil: amendment of 0.15 g mono-calcium phosphate in either (i) the top 50 mm (120 µg P g–1) or (ii) the top 500 mm (12 µg P g–1) of soil, and an unamended control. In the unamended soil M. sativa was shallow rooted, with 58% of the root length of in the top 50 mm. K. prorepens and L. australis had a more even distribution down the pot length, with only 4 and 22% of their roots in the 0–50 mm pot section, respectively. When exposed to amendment of P in the top 50 mm, root length in the top 50 mm increased 4-fold for K. prorepens and 10-fold for M. sativa, although the pattern of root distribution did not change for M. sativa. L. australis was relatively unresponsive to P additions and had an even distribution of roots down the pot. Shoot P concentrations differed according to species but not treatment (K. prorepens 2.1 mg g–1, L. australis 2.4 mg g–1, M. sativa 3.2 mg g–1). Total shoot P content was higher for K. prorepens than for the other species in all treatments. In a second experiment, mono-ester phosphatases were analysed from 1-mm slices of soil collected directly adjacent to the rhizosphere. All species exuded phosphatases into the rhizosphere, but addition of P to soil reduced phosphatase activity only for K. prorepens. Overall, high P concentration in the surface soil altered root distribution, but did not reduce root proliferation at depth. Furthermore, the Australian herbaceous perennial legumes had root distributions that enhanced P acquisition from low-P soils.

Measurement of the epicycle frequency in the Galactic disc and initial velocities of open clusters

A new method to measure the epicycle frequency kappa in the Galactic disc is presented. We make use of the large data base on open clusters completed by our group to derive the observed velocity vector (amplitude and direction) of the clusters in the Galactic plane. In the epicycle approximation, this velocity is equal to the circular velocity given by the rotation curve, plus a residual or perturbation velocity, of which the direction rotates as a function of time with the frequency kappa. Due to the non-random direction of the perturbation velocity at the birth time of the clusters, a plot of the present-day direction angle of this velocity as a function of the age of the clusters reveals systematic trends from which the epicycle frequency can be obtained. Our analysis considers that the Galactic potential is mainly axis-symmetric, or in other words, that the effect of the spiral arms on the Galactic orbits is small; in this sense, our results do not depend on any specific model of the spiral structure. The values of kappa that we obtain provide constraints on the rotation velocity of the in particular, V(0) is found to be 230 +/- 15 km s(-1) even if the scale (R(0) = 7.5 kpc) of the Galaxy is adopted. The measured kappa at the solar radius is 43 +/- 5 km s(-1) kpc(-1). The distribution of initial velocities of open clusters is discussed.

Restoring the azimuthal symmetry of lateral distributions of charged particles in the range of the KASCADE-Grande experiment

The reconstruction of Extensive Air Showers (EAS) observed by particle detectors at the ground is based on the characteristics of observables like the lateral particle density and the arrival times. The lateral densities, inferred for different EAS components from detector data, are usually parameterised by applying various lateral distribution functions (LDFs). The LDFs are used in turn for evaluating quantities like the total number of particles or the density at particular radial distances. Typical expressions for LDFs anticipate azimuthal symmetry of the density around the shower axis. The deviations of the lateral particle density from this assumption arising from various reasons are smoothed out in the case of compact arrays like KASCADE, but not in the case of arrays like Grande, which only sample a smaller part of the azimuthal variation. KASCADE-Grande, an extension of the former KASCADE experiment, is a multi-component Extensive Air Shower (EAS) experiment located at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (Campus North), Germany. The lateral distributions of charged particles are deduced from the basic information provided by the Grande scintillators - the energy deposits - first in the observation plane, then in the intrinsic shower plane. In all steps azimuthal dependences should be taken into account. As the energy deposit in the scintillators is dependent on the angles of incidence of the particles, azimuthal dependences are already involved in the first step: the conversion from the energy deposits to the charged particle density. This is done by using the Lateral Energy Correction Function (LECF) that evaluates the mean energy deposited by a charged particle taking into account the contribution of other particles (e.g. photons) to the energy deposit. By using a very fast procedure for the evaluation of the energy deposited by various particles we prepared realistic LECFs depending on the angle of incidence of the shower and on the radial and azimuthal coordinates of the location of the detector. Mapping the lateral density from the observation plane onto the intrinsic shower plane does not remove the azimuthal dependences arising from geometric and attenuation effects, in particular for inclined showers. Realistic procedures for applying correction factors are developed. Specific examples of the bias due to neglecting the azimuthal asymmetries in the conversion from the energy deposit in the Grande detectors to the lateral density of charged particles in the intrinsic shower plane are given. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Brachiaria decumbens supresses the initial growth of Coffea arabica

Brachiaria decumbens vem se tornando uma das plantas daninhas mais freqüentes na infestação de cafezais em formação, pois além de sua elevada agressividade e dificuldade de controle, está ocorrendo expansão das áreas cafeeiras para locais anteriormente ocupados por pastagens. Objetivou-se neste trabalho avaliar os efeitos desta planta daninha, em densidades crescentes, sobre o desenvolvimento inicial de mudas de café (Coffea arabica L. cv. Catuaí Amarelo). O experimento foi conduzido em condições semi-controladas, sem limitação de água. Uma muda de café foi transplantada em caixa de amianto com capacidade para 70 L, preenchida com terra coletada da camada arável de um Latossolo Vermelho. Os tratamentos constaram de diferentes densidades de transplante de capim-braquiária, a saber: 0, 4, 8, 12, 16, 20, 24, 36, 48 e 60 plantas m-2. O ensaio foi conduzido por um período experimental de 120 dias após o plantio (DAP). Todas as características analisadas foram afetadas negativamente pela interferência da planta daninha, mas as que se mostraram mais sensíveis a essa interferência foram à área foliar e a biomassa seca das folhas. Houve redução de 41,8% na área foliar do cafeeiro quando conviveu com o capim-braquiária a partir da densidade de 8 plantas m-2, chegando a 68,7% na densidade de 60 plantas m-2. Também a partir da densidade de 8 plantas m-2, a redução na biomassa seca das folhas em relação à testemunha foi de 41,4% e na densidade de 60 plantas m-2 chegou a 72,8%. Brachiaria decumbens, a partir da densidade de 8 plantas m-2, interfere negativamente sobre as mudas de café até os 120 DAP.

Weed control strip influences the initial growth of Eucalyptus grandis

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

The improvement of the anti-hyperalgesic effect of ketamine and of its isomers by the administration of ifenprodil

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Spatial variations at different observational scales and the seasonal distributions of stream macroalgae in a Brazilian subtropical region

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Refinement and initial validation of a multidimensional composite scale for use in assessing acute postoperative pain in cats

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Parturition intervals and distributions of parturitions by months of buffalo in Southern and South-eastern Brazil

Reproductive rate is an important component of economic success in livestock production. Parturition interval (IEP) is a direct measure of the productivity of the animal. Long IEP reduce the number of calves produced per year. The objective this study was to determine the distribution of parturitions across month and to evaluate factors affecting IEP. The data included 7,588 parturitions of Murrah, Mediterranean and Carabobo buffalo from 10 herds in Southern and South-eastern Brazil. The analysis of distribution of parturitions evaluated the effects of month, year and their interaction on birth date of calves by using a Chi-Square test in SAS PROC FREQ (SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA). Parturition intervals (n = 2,630) were evaluated using analysis of variance in SAS PROC GLM. The model for IEP included the fixed effects of season (December to May = 1, June to November = 2), year, season x year, sex of the preceding parturition, age of weaning of the previous calf, and herd. All sources of variation were significant (P<0.0001) except sex of the preceding parturition (P <0.85). The mean IEP was 446.7 +/- 10.4 days, for seasons 1 and 2 IEP were 419.8 +/- 11.3 and 473.6 +/- 40.7 days, respectively, a difference of 54 days. As weaning age increased there was a lengthening of IEP. Buffalo in Brazil showed seasonal parturition with calving concentrated from January to April, although the frequency by month differed across years (P<0.0001). These months also had the lowest calving interval.

Celecoxib treatment does not alter recruitment and activation of osteoclasts in the initial phase of experimental tooth movement

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Evaluation of Laser Fluorescence in the Monitoring of the Initial Stage of the De-/Remineralization Process: An in vitro and in situ Study

This study aimed to evaluate laser fluorescence (LF) for monitoring the initial stage of subsurface de- and remineralization (<150 mu m depth). Ninety-six sound blocks of bovine enamel, selected according to surface hardness (SH) and LF were used in two experimental studies, in vitro and in situ. In vitro, blocks were exposed to a demineralizing solution, then remineralized by pH cycling for 6 days. In situ, 10 volunteers wore acrylic palatal appliances, each containing 4 dental enamel blocks that were demineralized for 14 days by exposure to 20% sucrose solution. Following this treatment, blocks were submitted to remineralization for 1 week with fluoride dentifrice (1,100 mu g F/g). In both experiments, SH and LH were measured after demineralization and after remineralization. Further, enamel blocks were selected after the demineralization/remineralization steps for measurement of cross-sectional hardness and integrated loss of subsurface hardness (Delta KHN). SH and Delta KHN showed significant differences among the phases in each study. LF values for sound, demineralized and remineralized enamel were: 5.2 +/- 1.1, 8.1 +/- 1.2 and 5.6 +/- 0.8, respectively, in the in vitro study, and 5.3 +/- 0.3, 16.5 +/- 4.7 and 6.5 +/- 2.5, respectively, in the in situ study, values for demineralized enamel being significantly higher than for sound and remineralized enamel in both studies. However, LF was correlated with Delta KHN only in situ. LF was capable of monitoring de- and remineralization in early lesions in situ, when bacteria are presumably present in the caries lesion body, but is not correlated with mineral changes in bacteria-free systems. Copyright (C) 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel

Influence of light quality on germination and initial growth of canephori seedlings Peltophorum dubium (Sprenge) Taub.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Peanut genes identified during initial phase of Cercosporidium personatum infection

Late leaf spot (LLS), caused by the fun.-us Cercosporidium personatum, is one of the most severe diseases in peanut (Arachis hypogaea). The vast majority of commercial cultivars do not exhibit satisfactory levels of resistance to the pathogen, whereas non-commercial genotypes cv. 850 and cv. 909 are resistant to LLS and show symptoms similar to hypersensitive response (HR) lesions. In the present study, we investigated the molecular components of the initial stages of the resistance by gene expression profiling using suppression subtractive hybridization and differential screening of cDNA macroarray techniques. Gene expression analyses have allowed us to identify more than 700 peanut unique expressed sequence taus (EST) involved in several aspects of the early stages of C. personatum pathogenesis, such as components of defense signaling pathways, gene expression regulators, cell cycle controlling genes and components of the biosynthesis of transducer and antimicrobial compounds. The most significantly induced gene corresponds to a novel O'-methyltranferase, suggesting its involvement in the production of local lesions in C. personatum-resistant A. hypogea genotypes. Taken together, our results contribute to elucidate the defense strategies of peanut and provide the framework for the generation of pathogen-resistant peanut cultivars. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.