Quality of process modeling using BPMN: a model-driven approach

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Informática

A model to screen and improve business potential of micro and small enterprises in developing countries: Evidence from the Island of Mozambique

Programmes supporting micro and small enterprises in developing countries have been showing that capital is not enough to allow business success: survival and growth. Literature does not provide comprehensive and practical tool to support business development in this context, but allowed the collection of forty-nine success variables that were studied in a sample of successful and unsuccessful businesses in the Island of Mozambique to discover what were the key factors affecting those businesses’ performance. Empirical data gave the insights for the development of a model to screen and improve business potential of micro and small enterprises in this context.

Are celebrities mediators for negative spillover? An empirical study

The aim of this research is to investigate if a celebrity can be a mediator between two brands so that a negative event happening to one brand can spill over to a completely unrelated brand, which shares with the first brand only the celebrity endorser. Even though celebrity endorsement is a popular marketing strategy and celebrities often endorse multiple brands, so far there has not been any systematic study on this topic. Drawing on Associative Network Theory and the Meaning Transfer Model as theoretical framework, this research finds out that negative publicity about a brand can spill over and thereby not only hurt consumers’ attitude toward the celebrity endorser but also toward a second brand that is endorsed by the same celebrity. An unexpected finding is that celebrities can act as a protective shield for brands by weakening the direct impact of negative publicity.

Appreciating the power of words and imaginative organizing: A triadic model of ethics practiced in everyday conversations

This thesis provides an alternative framework to analyze power and ethics practiced in everyday conversations, which constitute processes of organizing. Drawing upon narrative frameworks, the analyses of messages posted on an online message board demonstrate people’s imaginative capacity to create relevant stories, in respect of their precise grasp of factual understandings, contextual relevance and evaluative/moral appropriateness, by appropriating others’ words. Based on the empirical analyses, the thesis indicates that studies on power and ethics in organizations can be re-oriented towards appreciating irremediable power imbalances by offering alternative ways of member’s denoting experiences of power.

The relationship between the education level of successor's and the firm performance in German publicly listed family firms- an empirical analysis

The purpose of this thesis is to investigate how far the education level of the second or third generation of publicly traded German family firms affects the post-succession firm performance. By conducting a correlational and regression design, the aim is to examine how several variables influence the performance of family firms. Performance measures, for example ROA and Tobin’s q and variables, like Education level and succession periods, examine analytically that a positive succession trend will occur. However, with the used model, only a less rigid model shows empirical evidence.

On the length of bank-firm relationships: an empirical application to a major French bank

NIPE - WP 01/ 2016

Embedding, evolution, and validation of model-driven spreadsheets

This paper proposes and validates a model-driven software engineering technique for spreadsheets. The technique that we envision builds on the embedding of spreadsheet models under a widely used spreadsheet system. This means that we enable the creation and evolution of spreadsheet models under a spreadsheet system. More precisely, we embed ClassSheets, a visual language with a syntax similar to the one offered by common spreadsheets, that was created with the aim of specifying spreadsheets. Our embedding allows models and their conforming instances to be developed under the same environment. In practice, this convenient environment enhances evolution steps at the model level while the corresponding instance is automatically co-evolved.Finally,wehave designed and conducted an empirical study with human users in order to assess our technique in production environments. The results of this study are promising and suggest that productivity gains are realizable under our model-driven spreadsheet development setting.

Firm Size and Geographical Aggregation: An Empirical Appraisal in Industrial Location

This paper assesses empirically the importance of size discrimination and disaggregate data for deciding where to locate a start-up concern. We compare three econometric specifications using Catalan data: a multinomial logit with 4 and 41 alternatives (provinces and comarques, respectively) in which firm size is the main covariate; a conditional logit with 4 and 41 alternatives including attributes of the sites as well as size-site interactions; and a Poisson model on the comarques and the full spatial choice set (942 municipalities) with site-specific variables. Our results suggest that if these two issues are ignored, conclusions may be misleading. We provide evidence that large and small firms behave differently and conclude that Catalan firms tend to choose between comarques rather than between municipalities. Moreover, labour-intensive firms seem more likely to be located in the city of Barcelona. Keywords: Catalonia, industrial location, multinomial response model. JEL: C250, E30, R00, R12

Forecasting volatility using a continuous time model

This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of a continuous stochastic volatility model with two factors of volatility (SV2F) and compares it to those of GARCH and ARFIMA models. The empirical results show that the volatility forecasting ability of the SV2F model is better than that of the GARCH and ARFIMA models, especially when volatility seems to change pattern. We use ex-post volatility as a proxy of the realized volatility obtained from intraday data and the forecasts from the SV2F are calculated using the reprojection technique proposed by Gallant and Tauchen (1998).

A proposal for a new specification for a conditionally heteroskedastic variance model: the Quadratic Moving-Average Conditional Heteroskedasticity and an application to the D. Mark-U.S. dollar Exchange Rate

Ever since the appearance of the ARCH model [Engle(1982a)], an impressive array of variance specifications belonging to the same class of models has emerged [i.e. Bollerslev's (1986) GARCH; Nelson's (1990) EGARCH]. This recent domain has achieved very successful developments. Nevertheless, several empirical studies seem to show that the performance of such models is not always appropriate [Boulier(1992)]. In this paper we propose a new specification: the Quadratic Moving Average Conditional heteroskedasticity model. Its statistical properties, such as the kurtosis and the symmetry, as well as two estimators (Method of Moments and Maximum Likelihood) are studied. Two statistical tests are presented, the first one tests for homoskedasticity and the second one, discriminates between ARCH and QMACH specification. A Monte Carlo study is presented in order to illustrate some of the theoretical results. An empirical study is undertaken for the DM-US exchange rate.

Testing the entrepreneurial intention model on a two-country sample

This paper tests the Entrepreneurial Intention Model -which is adapted from the Theory of Planned Behavior- on a sample of 533 individuals from two quite different countries: one of them European (Spain) and the other South Asian (Taiwan). A newly developed Entrepreneurial Intention Questionnaire (EIQ) has being used which tries to overcome some of the limitations of previous instruments. Structural equations techniques were used in the empirical analysis. Results are generally satisfactory, indicating that the model is probably adequate for studying entrepreneurship. Support for the model was found not only in the combined sample, but also in each of the national ones. However, some differences arose that may indicate demographic variables contribute differently to the formation of perceptions in each culture.

A Multisectorial model of prices: the SAM approach

Social Accounting Matrices (SAM) are normally used to analyse the income generation process. They are also useful, however, for analysing the cost transmission and price formation mechanisms. For price contributions, Roland-Holst and Sancho (1995) used the SAM structure to analyse the price and cost linkages through a representation of the interdependence between activities, households and factors. This paper is a further analysis of the cost transmission mechanisms, in which I add the capital account to the endogenous components of the Roland-Holst and Sancho approach. By doing this I reflect the responses of prices to the exogenous shocks in savings and investment. I also present an additive decomposition of the global price effects into categories of interdependence that isolates the impact on price levels of shocks in the capital account. I use a 1994 Social Accounting Matrix to make an empirical application of the Catalan economy. Keywords: social accounting matrix, cost linkages, price transmission, capital account. JEL Classification: C63, C69, D59.

Entrepreneurial intention, cognitive social capital and culture: empirical anaylisis for Spain and Taiwan

The main purpose of this paper is building a research model to integrate the socioeconomic concept of social capital within intentional models of new firm creation. Nevertheless, some researchers have found cultural differences between countries and regions to have an effect on economic development. Therefore, a second objective of this study is exploring whether those cultural differences affect entrepreneurial cognitions. Research design and methodology: Two samples of last year university students from Spain and Taiwan are studied through an Entrepreneurial Intention Questionnaire (EIQ). Structural equation models (Partial Least Squares) are used to test the hypotheses. The possible existence of differences between both sub-samples is also empirically explored through a multigroup analysis. Main outcomes and results: The proposed model explains 54.5% of the variance in entrepreneurial intention. Besides, there are some significant differences between both subsamples that could be attributed to cultural diversity. Conclusions: This paper has shown the relevance of cognitive social capital in shaping individuals’ entrepreneurial intentions across different countries. Furthermore, it suggests that national culture could be shaping entrepreneurial perceptions, but not cognitive social capital. Therefore, both cognitive social capital and culture (made up essentially of values and beliefs), may act together to reinforce the entrepreneurial intention.

Are two-part tariffs efficient when consumers plan ahead?: An empirical study

During the last two decades there has been an increase in using dynamic tariffs for billing household electricity consumption. This has questioned the suitability of traditional pricing schemes, such as two-part tariffs, since they contribute to create marked peak and offpeak demands. The aim of this paper is to assess if two-part tariffs are an efficient pricing scheme using Spanish household electricity microdata. An ordered probit model with instrumental variables on the determinants of power level choice and non-paramentric spline regressions on the electricity price distribution will allow us to distinguish between the tariff structure choice and the simultaneous demand decisions. We conclude that electricity consumption and dwellings’ and individuals’ characteristics are key determinants of the fixed charge paid by Spanish households Finally, the results point to the inefficiency of the two-part tariff as those consumers who consume more electricity pay a lower price than the others.

Can a Lucas model with habit generate realistic conditional volatility in exchange rate returns?

In this paper, we attempt to give a theoretical underpinning to the well established empirical stylized fact that asset returns in general and the spot FOREX returns in particular display predictable volatility characteristics. Adopting Moore and Roche s habit persistence version of Lucas model we nd that both the innovation in the spot FOREX return and the FOREX return itself follow "ARCH" style processes. Using the impulse response functions (IRFs) we show that the baseline simulated FOREX series has "ARCH" properties in the quarterly frequency that match well the "ARCH" properties of the empirical monthly estimations in that when we scale the x-axis to synchronize the monthly and quarterly responses we find similar impulse responses to one unit shock in variance. The IRFs for the ARCH processes we estimate "look the same" with an approximately monotonic decreasing fashion. The Lucas two-country monetary model with habit can generate realistic conditional volatility in spot FOREX return.