947 resultados para dynamic parameters identification


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I discuss the identifiability of a structural New Keynesian Phillips curve when it is embedded in a small scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Identification problems emerge because not all the structural parameters are recoverable from the semi-structural ones and because the objective functions I consider are poorly behaved. The solution and the moment mappings are responsible for the problems.

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Many dynamic revenue management models divide the sale period into a finite number of periods T and assume, invoking a fine-enough grid of time, that each period sees at most one booking request. These Poisson-type assumptions restrict the variability of the demand in the model, but researchers and practitioners were willing to overlook this for the benefit of tractability of the models. In this paper, we criticize this model from another angle. Estimating the discrete finite-period model poses problems of indeterminacy and non-robustness: Arbitrarily fixing T leads to arbitrary control values and on the other hand estimating T from data adds an additional layer of indeterminacy. To counter this, we first propose an alternate finite-population model that avoids this problem of fixing T and allows a wider range of demand distributions, while retaining the useful marginal-value properties of the finite-period model. The finite-population model still requires jointly estimating market size and the parameters of the customer purchase model without observing no-purchases. Estimation of market-size when no-purchases are unobservable has rarely been attempted in the marketing or revenue management literature. Indeed, we point out that it is akin to the classical statistical problem of estimating the parameters of a binomial distribution with unknown population size and success probability, and hence likely to be challenging. However, when the purchase probabilities are given by a functional form such as a multinomial-logit model, we propose an estimation heuristic that exploits the specification of the functional form, the variety of the offer sets in a typical RM setting, and qualitative knowledge of arrival rates. Finally we perform simulations to show that the estimator is very promising in obtaining unbiased estimates of population size and the model parameters.

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The complex network dynamics that arise from the interaction of the brain's structural and functional architectures give rise to mental function. Theoretical models demonstrate that the structure-function relation is maximal when the global network dynamics operate at a critical point of state transition. In the present work, we used a dynamic mean-field neural model to fit empirical structural connectivity (SC) and functional connectivity (FC) data acquired in humans and macaques and developed a new iterative-fitting algorithm to optimize the SC matrix based on the FC matrix. A dramatic improvement of the fitting of the matrices was obtained with the addition of a small number of anatomical links, particularly cross-hemispheric connections, and reweighting of existing connections. We suggest that the notion of a critical working point, where the structure-function interplay is maximal, may provide a new way to link behavior and cognition, and a new perspective to understand recovery of function in clinical conditions.

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The wreck U Pezzo, excavated within the Saint Florent Gulf in northern Corsica was identified as the pink, Saint Etienne, a merchant ship which sank on January 31, 1769. In order to determine the composition of organic materials used to coat the hull or to waterproof different parts of the pink, a study of several samples, using molecular biomarker and carbon isotopic analysis, was initiated. The results revealed that the remarkable yellow coat, covering the outside planks of the ship's bottom under the water line, is composed of sulfur, tallow (of ox and not of cetacean origin) and black pitch which corresponds to a mixture called ``couroi'' or ``stuff'. Onboard ropes had been submitted to a tarring treatment with pitch. Hairs mixed with pitch were identified in samples collected between the two layers of the hull or under the sheathing planking. The study also provides a key model for weathering of pitch, as different degrees of degradation were found between the surface and the heart of several samples. Accordingly, molecular parameters for alteration were proposed. Furthermore novel mixed esters between terpenic and diterpenic alcohols and the free major fatty acids (C(14:0), C(16:0), C(18:0)) were detected in the yellow coat. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The purposes of this study were to characterize the performance of a 3-dimensional (3D) ordered-subset expectation maximization (OSEM) algorithm in the quantification of left ventricular (LV) function with (99m)Tc-labeled agent gated SPECT (G-SPECT), the QGS program, and a beating-heart phantom and to optimize the reconstruction parameters for clinical applications. METHODS: A G-SPECT image of a dynamic heart phantom simulating the beating left ventricle was acquired. The exact volumes of the phantom were known and were as follows: end-diastolic volume (EDV) of 112 mL, end-systolic volume (ESV) of 37 mL, and stroke volume (SV) of 75 mL; these volumes produced an LV ejection fraction (LVEF) of 67%. Tomographic reconstructions were obtained after 10-20 iterations (I) with 4, 8, and 16 subsets (S) at full width at half maximum (FWHM) gaussian postprocessing filter cutoff values of 8-15 mm. The QGS program was used for quantitative measurements. RESULTS: Measured values ranged from 72 to 92 mL for EDV, from 18 to 32 mL for ESV, and from 54 to 63 mL for SV, and the calculated LVEF ranged from 65% to 76%. Overall, the combination of 10 I, 8 S, and a cutoff filter value of 10 mm produced the most accurate results. The plot of the measures with respect to the expectation maximization-equivalent iterations (I x S product) revealed a bell-shaped curve for the LV volumes and a reverse distribution for the LVEF, with the best results in the intermediate range. In particular, FWHM cutoff values exceeding 10 mm affected the estimation of the LV volumes. CONCLUSION: The QGS program is able to correctly calculate the LVEF when used in association with an optimized 3D OSEM algorithm (8 S, 10 I, and FWHM of 10 mm) but underestimates the LV volumes. However, various combinations of technical parameters, including a limited range of I and S (80-160 expectation maximization-equivalent iterations) and low cutoff values (< or =10 mm) for the gaussian postprocessing filter, produced results with similar accuracies and without clinically relevant differences in the LV volumes and the estimated LVEF.

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Objective. The aim of this study is to analyse associations between eating behaviour and psychological dysfunctions in treatment-seeking obese patients and identify parameters for the development of diagnostic tools with regard to eating and psychological disorders. Design and Methods. Cross-sectional data were analysed from 138 obese women. Bulimic Investigatory Test of Edinburgh and Eating Disorder Inventory-2 assessed eating behaviours. Beck Depression Inventory II, Spielberger State-Trait Anxiety Inventory, form Y, Rathus Assertiveness Schedule, and Marks and Mathews Fear Questionnaire assessed psychological profile. Results. 61% of patients showed moderate or major depressive symptoms and 77% showed symptoms of anxiety. Half of the participants presented with a low degree of assertiveness. No correlation was found between psychological profile and age or anthropometric measurements. The prevalence and severity of depression, anxiety, and assertiveness increased with the degree of eating disorders. The feeling of ineffectiveness explained a large degree of score variance. It explained 30 to 50% of the variability of assertiveness, phobias, anxiety, and depression. Conclusion. Psychological dysfunctions had a high prevalence and their severity is correlated with degree of eating disorders. The feeling of ineffectiveness constitutes the major predictor of the psychological profile and could open new ways to develop screening tools.

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AIM: MRI and PET with 18F-fluoro-ethyl-tyrosine (FET) have been increasingly used to evaluate patients with gliomas. Our purpose was to assess the additive value of MR spectroscopy (MRS), diffusion imaging and dynamic FET-PET for glioma grading. PATIENTS, METHODS: 38 patients (42 ± 15 aged, F/M: 0.46) with untreated histologically proven brain gliomas were included. All underwent conventional MRI, MRS, diffusion sequences, and FET-PET within 3±4 weeks. Performances of tumour FET time-activity-curve, early-to-middle SUVmax ratio, choline / creatine ratio and ADC histogram distribution pattern for gliomas grading were assessed, as compared to histology. Combination of these parameters and respective odds were also evaluated. RESULTS: Tumour time-activity-curve reached the best accuracy (67%) when taken alone to distinguish between low and high-grade gliomas, followed by ADC histogram analysis (65%). Combination of time-activity-curve and ADC histogram analysis improved the sensitivity from 67% to 86% and the specificity from 63-67% to 100% (p < 0.008). On multivariate logistic regression analysis, negative slope of the tumour FET time-activity-curve however remains the best predictor of high-grade glioma (odds 7.6, SE 6.8, p = 0.022). CONCLUSION: Combination of dynamic FET-PET and diffusion MRI reached good performance for gliomas grading. The use of FET-PET/MR may be highly relevant in the initial assessment of primary brain tumours.

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Plants maintain stem cells in their meristems as a source for new undifferentiated cells throughout their life. Meristems are small groups of cells that provide the microenvironment that allows stem cells to prosper. Homeostasis of a stem cell domain within a growing meristem is achieved by signalling between stem cells and surrounding cells. We have here simulated the origin and maintenance of a defined stem cell domain at the tip of Arabidopsis shoot meristems, based on the assumption that meristems are self-organizing systems. The model comprises two coupled feedback regulated genetic systems that control stem cell behaviour. Using a minimal set of spatial parameters, the mathematical model allows to predict the generation, shape and size of the stem cell domain, and the underlying organizing centre. We use the model to explore the parameter space that allows stem cell maintenance, and to simulate the consequences of mutations, gene misexpression and cell ablations.

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Gas sensing systems based on low-cost chemical sensor arrays are gaining interest for the analysis of multicomponent gas mixtures. These sensors show different problems, e.g., nonlinearities and slow time-response, which can be partially solved by digital signal processing. Our approach is based on building a nonlinear inverse dynamic system. Results for different identification techniques, including artificial neural networks and Wiener series, are compared in terms of measurement accuracy.

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AIM: MRI and PET with 18F-fluoro-ethyl-tyrosine (FET) have been increasingly used to evaluate patients with gliomas. Our purpose was to assess the additive value of MR spectroscopy (MRS), diffusion imaging and dynamic FET-PET for glioma grading. PATIENTS, METHODS: 38 patients (42 ± 15 aged, F/M: 0.46) with untreated histologically proven brain gliomas were included. All underwent conventional MRI, MRS, diffusion sequences, and FET-PET within 3±4 weeks. Performances of tumour FET time-activity-curve, early-to-middle SUVmax ratio, choline / creatine ratio and ADC histogram distribution pattern for gliomas grading were assessed, as compared to histology. Combination of these parameters and respective odds were also evaluated. RESULTS: Tumour time-activity-curve reached the best accuracy (67%) when taken alone to distinguish between low and high-grade gliomas, followed by ADC histogram analysis (65%). Combination of time-activity-curve and ADC histogram analysis improved the sensitivity from 67% to 86% and the specificity from 63-67% to 100% (p < 0.008). On multivariate logistic regression analysis, negative slope of the tumour FET time-activity-curve however remains the best predictor of high-grade glioma (odds 7.6, SE 6.8, p = 0.022). CONCLUSION: Combination of dynamic FET-PET and diffusion MRI reached good performance for gliomas grading. The use of FET-PET/MR may be highly relevant in the initial assessment of primary brain tumours.

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Recognition and identification processes for deceased persons. Determining the identity of deceased persons is a routine task performed essentially by police departments and forensic experts. This thesis highlights the processes necessary for the proper and transparent determination of the civil identities of deceased persons. The identity of a person is defined as the establishment of a link between that person ("the source") and information pertaining to the same individual ("identifiers"). Various identity forms could emerge, depending on the nature of the identifiers. There are two distinct types of identity, namely civil identity and biological identity. The paper examines four processes: identification by witnesses (the recognition process) and comparisons of fingerprints, dental data and DNA profiles (the identification processes). During the recognition process, the memory function is examined and helps to clarify circumstances that may give rise to errors. To make the process more rigorous, a body presentation procedure is proposed to investigators. Before examining the other processes, three general concepts specific to forensic science are considered with regard to the identification of a deceased person, namely, matter divisibility (Inman and Rudin), transfer (Locard) and uniqueness (Kirk). These concepts can be applied to the task at hand, although some require a slightly broader scope of application. A cross comparison of common forensic fields and the identification of deceased persons reveals certain differences, including 1 - reverse positioning of the source (i.e. the source is not sought from traces, but rather the identifiers are obtained from the source); 2 - the need for civil identity determination in addition to the individualisation stage; and 3 - a more restricted population (closed set), rather than an open one. For fingerprints, dental and DNA data, intravariability and intervariability are examined, as well as changes in these post mortem (PM) identifiers. Ante-mortem identifiers (AM) are located and AM-PM comparisons made. For DNA, it has been shown that direct identifiers (taken from a person whose civil identity has been alleged) tend to lead to determining civil identity whereas indirect identifiers (obtained from a close relative) direct towards a determination of biological identity. For each process, a Bayesian model is presented which includes sources of uncertainty deemed to be relevant. The results of the different processes combine to structure and summarise an overall outcome and a methodology. The modelling of dental data presents a specific difficulty with respect to intravariability, which in itself is not quantifiable. The concept of "validity" is, therefore, suggested as a possible solution to the problem. Validity uses various parameters that have an acknowledged impact on teeth intravariability. In cases where identifying deceased persons proves to be extremely difficult due to the limited discrimination of certain procedures, the use of a Bayesian approach is of great value in bringing a transparent and synthetic value. RESUME : Titre: Processus de reconnaissance et d'identification de personnes décédées. L'individualisation de personnes décédées est une tâche courante partagée principalement par des services de police, des odontologues et des laboratoires de génétique. L'objectif de cette recherche est de présenter des processus pour déterminer valablement, avec une incertitude maîtrisée, les identités civiles de personnes décédées. La notion d'identité est examinée en premier lieu. L'identité d'une personne est définie comme l'établissement d'un lien entre cette personne et des informations la concernant. Les informations en question sont désignées par le terme d'identifiants. Deux formes distinctes d'identité sont retenues: l'identité civile et l'identité biologique. Quatre processus principaux sont examinés: celui du témoignage et ceux impliquant les comparaisons d'empreintes digitales, de données dentaires et de profils d'ADN. Concernant le processus de reconnaissance, le mode de fonctionnement de la mémoire est examiné, démarche qui permet de désigner les paramètres pouvant conduire à des erreurs. Dans le but d'apporter un cadre rigoureux à ce processus, une procédure de présentation d'un corps est proposée à l'intention des enquêteurs. Avant d'entreprendre l'examen des autres processus, les concepts généraux propres aux domaines forensiques sont examinés sous l'angle particulier de l'identification de personnes décédées: la divisibilité de la matière (Inman et Rudin), le transfert (Locard) et l'unicité (Kirk). Il est constaté que ces concepts peuvent être appliqués, certains nécessitant toutefois un léger élargissement de leurs principes. Une comparaison croisée entre les domaines forensiques habituels et l'identification de personnes décédées montre des différences telles qu'un positionnement inversé de la source (la source n'est plus à rechercher en partant de traces, mais ce sont des identifiants qui sont recherchés en partant de la source), la nécessité de devoir déterminer une identité civile en plus de procéder à une individualisation ou encore une population d'intérêt limitée plutôt qu'ouverte. Pour les empreintes digitales, les dents et l'ADN, l'intra puis l'inter-variabilité sont examinées, de même que leurs modifications post-mortem (PM), la localisation des identifiants ante-mortem (AM) et les comparaisons AM-PM. Pour l'ADN, il est démontré que les identifiants directs (provenant de la personne dont l'identité civile est supposée) tendent à déterminer une identité civile alors que les identifiants indirects (provenant d'un proche parent) tendent à déterminer une identité biologique. Puis une synthèse des résultats provenant des différents processus est réalisée grâce à des modélisations bayesiennes. Pour chaque processus, une modélisation est présentée, modélisation intégrant les paramètres reconnus comme pertinents. À ce stade, une difficulté apparaît: celle de quantifier l'intra-variabilité dentaire pour laquelle il n'existe pas de règle précise. La solution préconisée est celle d'intégrer un concept de validité qui intègre divers paramètres ayant un impact connu sur l'intra-variabilité. La possibilité de formuler une valeur de synthèse par l'approche bayesienne s'avère d'une aide précieuse dans des cas très difficiles pour lesquels chacun des processus est limité en termes de potentiel discriminant.

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The pace of on-going climate change calls for reliable plant biodiversity scenarios. Traditional dynamic vegetation models use plant functional types that are summarized to such an extent that they become meaningless for biodiversity scenarios. Hybrid dynamic vegetation models of intermediate complexity (hybrid-DVMs) have recently been developed to address this issue. These models, at the crossroads between phenomenological and process-based models, are able to involve an intermediate number of well-chosen plant functional groups (PFGs). The challenge is to build meaningful PFGs that are representative of plant biodiversity, and consistent with the parameters and processes of hybrid-DVMs. Here, we propose and test a framework based on few selected traits to define a limited number of PFGs, which are both representative of the diversity (functional and taxonomic) of the flora in the Ecrins National Park, and adapted to hybrid-DVMs. This new classification scheme, together with recent advances in vegetation modeling, constitutes a step forward for mechanistic biodiversity modeling.

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BACKGROUND: In a simulation based on a pharmacokinetic model we demonstrated that increasing the erythropoiesis stimulating agents (ESAs) half-life or shortening their administration interval decreases hemoglobin variability. The benefit of reducing the administration interval was however lessened by the variability induced by more frequent dosage adjustments. The purpose of this study was to analyze the reticulocyte and hemoglobin kinetics and variability under different ESAs and administration intervals in a collective of chronic hemodialysis patients. METHODS: The study was designed as an open-label, randomized, four-period cross-over investigation, including 30 patients under chronic hemodialysis at the regional hospital of Locarno (Switzerland) in February 2010 and lasting 2 years. Four subcutaneous treatment strategies (C.E.R.A. every 4 weeks Q4W and every 2 weeks Q2W, Darbepoetin alfa Q4W and Q2W) were compared with each other. The mean square successive difference of hemoglobin, reticulocyte count and ESAs dose was used to quantify variability. We distinguished a short- and a long-term variability based respectively on the weekly and monthly successive difference. RESULTS: No difference was found in the mean values of biological parameters (hemoglobin, reticulocytes, and ferritin) between the 4 strategies. ESAs type did not affect hemoglobin and reticulocyte variability, but C.E.R.A induced a more sustained reticulocytes response over time and increased the risk of hemoglobin overshooting (OR 2.7, p = 0.01). Shortening the administration interval lessened the amplitude of reticulocyte count fluctuations but resulted in more frequent ESAs dose adjustments and in amplified reticulocyte and hemoglobin variability. Q2W administration interval was however more favorable in terms of ESAs dose, allowing a 38% C.E.R.A. dose reduction, and no increase of Darbepoetin alfa. CONCLUSIONS: The reticulocyte dynamic was a more sensitive marker of time instability of the hemoglobin response under ESAs therapy. The ESAs administration interval had a greater impact on hemoglobin variability than the ESAs type. The more protracted reticulocyte response induced by C.E.R.A. could explain both, the observed higher risk of overshoot and the significant increase in efficacy when shortening its administration interval.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT01666301.

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RESUME : Les dermatophytes sont les agents infectieux les plus fréquents responsables de la plupart des mycoses superficielles chez les humains et chez les animaux. Ces infections, dermatophytoses, également appelées tineas ou teignes, sont fréquentes et causent des problèmes de santé publique au niveau mondial. La capacité d'envahir et de progresser au sein des structures kératinisées est probablement liée à la sécrétion de différentes enzymes kératinolytiques, qui sont considérées comme la principale caractéristique liée à la pathogénicité de ces champignons. L'objectif de ma thèse a été premièrement de progresser dans l'identification et la caractérisation des nouvelles protéines sécrétées, afin de mieux comprendre a) la capacité globale des dermatophytes à envahir les structures kératinisées, et b) les différences dans la virulence et la spécificité d'hôte que présentent les espèces étudiées .Pour progresser dans l'identification et la caractérisation de ces nouvelles protéines, les secretomes de six espèces de dermatophytes (Trichophyton rubrum, Trichophyton violaceum, Trichophyton soudanense, Trichophyton equinum, Arthroderma vanbreuseghemii et Trichophyton tonsurans) ont été étudiés. Bien qu'il y ait un niveau globalement élevé de similitude entre les protéases sécrétées, les différentes espèces de dermatophytes sécrètent des profiles protéiques distincts lorsqu'elles sont cultivées dans les mêmes conditions de culture, et donc une signature spécifique a pu être associé à chaque espèce. Ces profiles ont été un outil avantageux pour identifier et cartographier les protéines orthologues aux six espèces et ont aussi permit la discrimination d'espèces très proches comme T. tonsurans et T. equinum qui ne peuvent pas être différenciées par l'ADN ribosomal. Ce travail également présente ce que l'on croit être la première identification global des protéines sécrétées par les dermatophytes dans des conditions de culture que incitent l'activité protéolytique extracellulaire. Ce catalogue de protéines, comprenant des endo- and exo- proteases, autres hydrolases, oxydoreductases et des protéines avec fonction inconnue, représente probablement le spectre d'enzymes qui permettent la dégradation des tissus kératinisés en composés qui peuvent être assimilés par le champignon. Les résultats suggèrent qu'un changement écologique pourrait être associé à une expression différentielle des gènes codant les protéines sécrétées, en particulier, les protéases, plutôt qu'à des divergences génétiques au niveau des gènes codant les protéines orthologues. Une sécrétion différentielle des protéines par les dermatophytes pourrait également être responsable de la variabilité inflammatoire qui causent ces agents infectieux chez les différents hôtes. Par conséquent, les protéines identifiées ici sont également importantes pour faire la lumière sur la réponse immunitaire de l'hôte au cours du processus infectieux. SUMMARY : Dermatophytes are the most common infectious agents responsible for superficial mycosis in humans and animals. Dermatophytoses, also called tineas or ringworm, are frequent and cause public health problems worldwide. The secretion of different keratinolytic enzymes is believed to be a key pathogenicity-related characteristic of these fungi. The aim of this work was first to progress in the identification and characterization of novel secreted proteins, in order to better understand a) the overall capability of dermatophytes to invade keratinised structures, and b) differences in virulence and host-specificity of the investigated species. To progress in the identification and characterization of novel proteins, the secretomes from Trichophyton rubrum, Trichophyton violaceum, Trichophyton soudanense, Trichophyton equinum, Arthroderma vanbreuseghemii and Trichophyton tonsurans were studied. Although there is a high global level of similarity among the secreted proteases, different dermatophyte species produce distinct patterns of proteins when grown in the same culture medium, and so a specific signature could be associated to each species. These patterns were useful to identify and map orthologous proteins among the six species, as well as to discriminate the closely related species T. tonsurans and T. equinum, which cannot be differentiated by ribosomal DNA. This work also presents the first in-depth identification of the major proteins secreted by dermatophytes growing under conditions promoting extracellular proteolytic activity. This catalogue of proteins, which include several endo- and exo- proteases, other hydrolases, oxydoreductases, and proteins of unknown function, probably represents the spectrum of enzymes that allow the degradation of keratinized tissues into compounds which can be assimilated by the fungus. The results suggest that ecological switching could be related to a differential expression of genes encoding secreted proteins, particularly, proteases, rather than genetic divergences of the genes encoding orthologous proteins. Differential secretion of proteins by Dermatophyte species could also be responsible for the variable inflammation caused by the infectious agent within the host. Therefore, the proteins here identified are also important to shed light into the immune response of the host during the infection process.

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Wet pavement friction is known to be one of the most important roadway safety parameters. In this research, frictional properties of flexible (asphalt) pavements were investigated. As a part of this study, a laboratory device to polish asphalt specimens was refined and a procedure to evaluate mixture frictional properties was proposed. Following this procedure, 46 different Superpave mixtures, one stone matrix asphalt (SMA) mixture and one porous friction course (PFC) mixture were tested. In addition, 23 different asphalt and two concrete field sections were also tested for friction and noise. The results of both field and laboratory measurements were used to develop an International Friction Index (IFI)-based protocol for measurement of the frictional characteristics of asphalt pavements for laboratory friction measurements. Based on the results of the study, it appears the content of high friction aggregate should be 20% or more of the total aggregate blend when used with other, polish susceptible coarse aggregates; the frictional properties increased substantially as the friction aggregate content increased above 20%. Both steel slag and quartzite were found to improve the frictional properties of the blend, though steel slag had a lower polishing rate. In general, mixes containing soft limestone demonstrated lower friction values than comparable mixes with hard limestone or dolomite. Larger nominal maximum aggregate size mixes had better overall frictional performance than smaller sized mixes. In addition, mixes with higher fineness moduli generally had higher macrotexture and friction.