Modeling the Diffusion of Energy Performance Contracting

The Portuguese Energy Policy considers the development of a commercially viable and competitive market for energy performance contracting (EPC) as a main mechanism to achieve the objectives of energy efficiency improvement. This paper proposes a study to investigate how to achieve widespread adoption of energy performance contracting by means of system dynamics modelling and simulation. To explore and gather insights on this question, a system dynamics model representing the system of the Portuguese EPC market at industry level will be created. The simulation of that model will provide a helpful basis for analysing and explaining the development of key variables, and accelerating learning on the managerial, organizational and political adaptation processes that foster the diffusion of EPC adoption. The first phase of this research project aims at identifying and analysing the key factors and critical cause-effect relations that drive the adoption of EPC. With this purpose, a qualitative content analysis on relevant documents was performed and a set of interviews was conducted. That data was analysed to capture the critical variables and its interrelation to formulate a preliminary representation of the system structure as stock and flow diagrams.

Epidemia de dengue em Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brasil: nota prévia

Apresenta-se Nota preliminar de uma epidemia de dengue, ocorrida em Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brasil, no período de novembro de 1990 a março de 1991. Descreve-se a ocorrência de um caso de "Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever/Dengue Shock Syndrome" Grau II (DHF/DSS) e de dois óbitos associados ao dengue devido a síndrome de choque. Alerta clínicos e epidemiologistas quanto à possibilidade de ocorrência de casos isolados de DHF/DSS durante epidemias de dengue clássico em áreas antes indenes à doença.

Identification of tsunami-induced deposits using numerical modeling and rock magnetism techniques: A study case of the 1755 Lisbon tsunami in Algarve, Portugal

Storm- and tsunami-deposits are generated by similar depositional mechanisms making their discrimination hard to establish using classic sedimentologic methods. Here we propose an original approach to identify tsunami-induced deposits by combining numerical simulation and rock magnetism. To test our method, we investigate the tsunami deposit of the Boca do Rio estuary generated by the 1755 earthquake in Lisbon which is well described in the literature. We first test the 1755 tsunami scenario using a numerical inundation model to provide physical parameters for the tsunami wave. Then we use concentration (MS. SIRM) and grain size (chi(ARM), ARM, B1/2, ARM/SIRM) sensitive magnetic proxies coupled with SEM microscopy to unravel the magnetic mineralogy of the tsunami-induced deposit and its associated depositional mechanisms. In order to study the connection between the tsunami deposit and the different sedimentologic units present in the estuary, magnetic data were processed by multivariate statistical analyses. Our numerical simulation show a large inundation of the estuary with flow depths varying from 0.5 to 6 m and run up of similar to 7 m. Magnetic data show a dominance of paramagnetic minerals (quartz) mixed with lesser amount of ferromagnetic minerals, namely titanomagnetite and titanohematite both of a detrital origin and reworked from the underlying units. Multivariate statistical analyses indicate a better connection between the tsunami-induced deposit and a mixture of Units C and D. All these results point to a scenario where the energy released by the tsunami wave was strong enough to overtop and erode important amount of sand from the littoral dune and mixed it with reworked materials from underlying layers at least 1 m in depth. The method tested here represents an original and promising tool to identify tsunami-induced deposits in similar embayed beach environments.

Dengue in the South-eastern region of Brazil: historical analysis and epidemiology

The aim of the study is an historical analysis of the work undertaken by the Public Health organizations dedicated to the combat of the Aedes aegypti, as well as an epidemiolocal study of persons with unexplained fever, with a view to evaluating the ocurrence of dengue within the population. The Mac-Elisa, Gac-Elisa, hemaglutination inhibition, isolation and typage tests were used. Organophosphate intoxication in agricultural workers was also assessed by measuring concentrations of serie cholinesterase. A sera samples of 2,094 were collected in 23 towns, and the type 1 dengue virus was detected in 17 towns and autochthony was confirmed in 12 of them. The cholinesterase was measured in 2,391 sera samples of which 53 cases had abnormal levels. Poisoning was confirmed in 3 cases. Results reveal an epidemic the gravity of which was not officially know. The relationshipe between levels of IgM and IgG antibodies indicates the outbreak tendency. The widespread distribution of the vector is troubling because of the possibility of the urbanization of wild yellow fever, whereas the absence of A. aegypti in 2 towns with autochthony suggests the existence of another vector. Since there is no vaccine against dengue, the combat of the vector is the most efficient measure for preventing outbreaks. The eradication of the vector depends on government decisions which depend, for their execution, on the organization of the Health System and the propagation of information concerning the prevention of the disease using all possible means because short and long term results depend on the education and the active participation of the entire population.

Estudo comparativo de eficácia de larvitrampas e ovitrampas para vigilância de vetores de dengue e febre amarela

Com a finalidade de aprimorar a vigilância entomológica dos vetores de Dengue e Febre Amarela - Aedes aegypti e Aedes albopictus - no Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, realizou-se estudo comparativo de eficácia de larvitrampas (armadilhas de larvas), e ovitrampas (armadilhas de ovos). A região estudada é infestada somente pelo Aedes albopictus, espécie que conserva hábitos silvestres, mas também coloniza criadouros artificiais. A primeira parte do estudo foi realizada em área periurbana de Tremembé-SP, onde foram comparados três ocos de árvore, 23 ovitrampas e 5 larvitrampas. A segunda parte dos experimentos desenvolveu-se no Município de Lavrinhas-SP, no distrito de Pinheiros, onde 20 ovitrampas foram instaladas (uma por quadra) e 5 larvitrampas foram localizadas em pontos estratégicos (comércios, depósitos e postos). Os resultados obtidos mostraram que a ovitrampa, além da capacidade de positivar-se mesmo em presença de criadouros naturais, possui eficiência superior à larvitrampa. Constatou-se que para avaliação de efeitos da termonebulização as ovitrampas apresentaram uma significativa redução na média de ovos, o que não se verificou em relação ao Índice de Breteau.

Modeling, control and simulation of full-power converter wind turbines equipped with permanent magnet synchronous generator

In this paper, two wind turbines equipped with a permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG) and respectively with a two-level or a multilevel converter are simulated in order to access the malfunction transient performance. Three different drive train mass models, respectively, one, two and three mass models, are considered in order to model the bending flexibility of the blades. Moreover, a fractional-order control strategy is studied comparatively to a classical integer-order control strategy. Computer simulations are carried out, and conclusions about the total harmonic distortion (THD) of the electric current injected into the electric grid are in favor of the fractional-order control strategy.

Power converter topologies for wind energy conversion systems: Integrated modeling, control strategy and performance simulation

This paper presents new integrated model for variable-speed wind energy conversion systems, considering a more accurate dynamic of the wind turbine, rotor, generator, power converter and filter. Pulse width modulation by space vector modulation associated with sliding mode is used for controlling the power converters. Also, power factor control is introduced at the output of the power converters. Comprehensive performance simulation studies are carried out with matrix, two-level and multilevel power converter topologies in order to adequately assert the system performance. Conclusions are duly drawn.

Dengue em localidade urbana da região sudeste do Brasil: aspectos epidemiológicos

Foram revistos alguns aspectos da epidemiologia do dengue, como parte do estudo de epidemia ocorrida no Município de Ribeirão Preto, Estado de São Paulo, no período de novembro de 1990 a março de 1991. Deu-se ênfase aos fatores envolvidos no risco de ocorrência do dengue hemorrágico/síndrome de choque do dengue. Traçou-se um quadro de referência a respeito do comportamento epidemiológico do dengue através do tempo e em diferentes áreas geográficas. A epidemia de Ribeirão Preto foi situada no contexto da progressão do dengue em nível mundial, nas Américas, e particulamente no Brasil e Estado de São Paulo.

Survey of cyclopids (Crustacea, Copepoda) in Brazil and preliminary screening of their potential as dengue vector predators

INTRODUCTION: Cyclopid copepods are known to be good mosquito controllers, specially as regards the larvae of the dengue vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus. MATERIAL AND METHOD: The objective of the study was to survey the local copepod fauna and search for new strains of M. longisetus var. longisetus, comparing the potential of the samples found with the current strain ML-01 against Ae. albopictus larvae, under laboratory conditions. Eleven bodies of water in Campinas, SP, Brazil, were screened for copepods by collecting 1.5 l of water from each of then. The predatory potential of adults copepods was evaluated over 24 h, in the laboratory, for groups of 5 individuals preying upon 30 first instar Ae. albopictus larvae. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: The following cyclopid species were found: Metacyclops mendocinus, Tropocyclops prasinus, Eucyclops sp, Eucyclops serrulatus, Eucyclops solitarius, Eucyclops ensifer, Macrocyclops albidus var. albidus and Mesocyclops longisetus var. longisetus. The predatory potential of these copepods ranged from nil to 97.3%. A sample collected in the field containing only M. longisetus var. longisetus showed the best control efficiency with no significant difference from a three-year old laboratory culture (ML-01) of the same species evaluated for comparison. The sample with few M. albidus var. albidus was ranked in second place showing an average 25.9% efficiency. The use of copepods in trap tires as dengue vector controllers is discussed.

Distribuição espacial da dengue e determinantes socioeconômicos em localidade urbana no Sudeste do Brasil

INTRODUÇÃO: Fez-se uma análise da incidência de dengue na cidade de São José do Rio Preto, SP, durante epidemia (sorotipo I) ocorrida no primeiro semestre de 1995, em função de áreas geográficas (unidades ambientais urbanas) definidas através de variáveis econômico-sociais. MATERIAL E MÉTODO: Utilizou-se método epidemiológico do tipo "estudo ecológico". Para o cálculo do coeficiente de incidência (CI) foram considerados os casos de dengue confirmados e notificados entre janeiro e julho de 1995. As unidades ambientais foram definidas a partir de variáveis socioeconômicas, tendo como base o setor censitário do IBGE, através de análise de agrupamento. Calculou-se o coeficiente de correlação linear entre o CI e variáveis ambientais. RESULTADOS E CONCLUSÕES: Com base na distribuição de renda e no nível educacional foram identificadas três unidades ambientais. O CI de dengue variou de forma inversa com o padrão socioeconômico da unidade. Discutiu-se o papel da densidade populacional e dos serviços de saneamento ambiental, no nível de incidência. Ressaltou-se a importância do estudo para o controle da dengue.

Epidemia de dengue em Fortaleza, Ceará: inquérito soro-epidemiológico aleatório

OBJETIVO: Seguindo-se à epidemia de dengue (DEN), em 1994, em Fortaleza, Ceará, causada pelo sorotipo 2 (DEN-2), realizou-se inquérito soro-epidemiológico aleatório para avaliar e dimensionar o impacto da mesma e a prevalência do dengue por distrito sanitário. MÉTODO: Foi aplicado questionário contendo informações gerais, condições socio-econômicas, informações sobre o quadro clínico e tempo de doença. A amostra foi calculada para estimar uma prevalência de 20%, com erro relativo de 10%, e intervalo de confiança de 95% (erro a de 5%). O sorteio e as análises foram realizadas por meio de computador usando programas apropriados. RESULTADOS E CONCLUSÕES: Foram colhidas 1.341 amostras de soro de 9 distritos sanitários, testadas por inibição da hemaglutinação, sendo classificadas como negativas e positivas (respostas primária - RP e secundária - RS). Foram reativas 588 (44%) amostras, sendo 93 (7%) RP e 495 (37%) RS. A prevalência global em Fortaleza variou de 21% a 71%. Houve 41% (243/588) de infecções assintomáticas (IA) e 59% (346/588) sintomáticas (IS). Não houve diferença da prevalência quanto ao sexo, faixa etária e escolaridade, ao contrário da condição socioeconômica que apresentou diferenças estatisticamente significantes (p < 0,001). Ocorreram mais IA (p<0,001) e IS (p<0,0001) em casos de RS que RP, com significância estatística em ambos os sexos. Os sintomas mais prevalentes no casos confirmados foram febre, cefaléia, mialgias, exantema, mal estar geral, tontura e artralgias, sendo que prurido, dor ocular, exantema e gengivorragia foram estatisticamente significantes (p<0,005). Tontura e artralgias foram mais associados com RS que com RP, havendo diferenças estatísticas (p <0,05).

Identification of tsunami-induced deposits using numerical modeling and rock magnetism techniques: A study case of the 1755 Lisbon tsunami in Algarve, Portugal

Storm- and tsunami-deposits are generated by similar depositional mechanisms making their discrimination hard to establish using classic sedimentologic methods. Here we propose an original approach to identify tsunami-induced deposits by combining numerical simulation and rock magnetism. To test our method, we investigate the tsunami deposit of the Boca do Rio estuary generated by the 1755 earthquake in Lisbon which is well described in the literature. We first test the 1755 tsunami scenario using a numerical inundation model to provide physical parameters for the tsunami wave. Then we use concentration (MS. SIRM) and grain size (chi(ARM), ARM, B1/2, ARM/SIRM) sensitive magnetic proxies coupled with SEM microscopy to unravel the magnetic mineralogy of the tsunami-induced deposit and its associated depositional mechanisms. In order to study the connection between the tsunami deposit and the different sedimentologic units present in the estuary, magnetic data were processed by multivariate statistical analyses. Our numerical simulation show a large inundation of the estuary with flow depths varying from 0.5 to 6 m and run up of similar to 7 m. Magnetic data show a dominance of paramagnetic minerals (quartz) mixed with lesser amount of ferromagnetic minerals, namely titanomagnetite and titanohematite both of a detrital origin and reworked from the underlying units. Multivariate statistical analyses indicate a better connection between the tsunami-induced deposit and a mixture of Units C and D. All these results point to a scenario where the energy released by the tsunami wave was strong enough to overtop and erode important amount of sand from the littoral dune and mixed it with reworked materials from underlying layers at least 1 m in depth. The method tested here represents an original and promising tool to identify tsunami-induced deposits in similar embayed beach environments.

Mathematical modeling of pressurized system behaviour with entrapped air

The presence of entrapped air in pressurized hydraulic systems is considered a critical condition for the infrastructure security, due to the transient pressure enhancement related with its dynamic behaviour, similar to non-linear spring action. A mathematical model for the assessment of hydraulic transients resulting from rapid pressurizations, under referred condition is presented. Water movement was modeled through the elastic column theory considering a moving liquid boundary and the entrapped air pocket as lumped gas mass, where the acoustic effects are negligible. The method of characteristics was used to obtain the numerical solution of the liquid flow. The resulting model is applied to an experimental set-up having entrapped air in the top of a vertical pipe section and the numerical results are analyzed.

Dengue: inquérito sorológico pós-epidêmico em zona urbana do Estado de São Paulo (Brasil)

OBJETIVO: Avaliar o tamanho real da epidemia sobre dengue ocorrida na zona urbana do Município de Santa Bárbara D'Oeste, SP, Brasil, de abril a junho de 1995. MÉTODOS: Foi realizado um inquérito soroepidemiológico pós-epidêmico 5 meses após o final da epidemia da dengue. Foram processados 1.113 soros através de amostragem aleatória domiciliar da população da cidade pesquisada. As taxas de infecção em diferentes partes da cidade foram relacionadas com os graus de infestação por Aedes aegipty e com a quantidade de casos notificados durante a epidemia. RESULTADOS E CONCLUSÕES: Foi encontrada variação concomitante e diretamente proporcional entre as taxas de infecção pelo vírus da dengue, em diferentes partes da cidade, e os graus de infestação domiciliar por Aedes aegipty, bem como em relação ao número de casos notificados durante a epidemia. Encontrou-se prevalência de 630 por 100 mil habitantes, representando valor 15 vezes superior ao de incidência de casos confirmados laboratorialmente durante a epidemia. Através de comparação retrospectiva com dados de notificação compulsória, observou-se que a vigilância epidemiológica não detectou a maioria das pessoas soro-reativas. Apesar disso, notificou grande quantidade de casos que não eram de indivíduos com dengue, tipificando um valor preditivo positivo baixo (15,6%) para o diagnóstico clínico de dengue quando o resultado laboratorial (HAI) é tomado como padrão-ouro.