Relatedness and HLA-DRB1 typing may discriminate the magnitude of the genetic susceptibility to tuberculosis using a household contact model

Background Tuberculosis clusters in families may be due to increased household exposure, shared genetic factors, or both. Household contact studies are useful to control exposure because socioeconomic and environmental conditions are similar to all subjects, allowing the evaluation of the contribution of relatedness to disease development. Methods In this study, the familial aggregation of tuberculosis using relatedness and a specific inherited marker (HLA-DRB1) was evaluated. Fifty families, which had at least two cases of tuberculosis diagnosed within the past 5 years, were selected from a cohort of tuberculosis carried out in Recife, Brazil. The first case diagnosed was considered to be a primary case. The secondary attack rate of tuberculosis in household contacts was estimated according to the degree of relatedness. The relative risk of having tuberculosis based on the degree of relatedness household and the population attributable fraction to relatedness were also estimated. HLA-DRB1 typing and attributable etiologic/preventive fractions were calculated among sick and healthy household contacts. Results Compared to unrelated contacts, the relative risk for tuberculosis adjusted for age was 1.38 (95% CI 0.86 to 2.21). Relatedness contributed 23% to the development of tuberculosis at the population levels. The HLA-DRB1*04 allele group (OR = 2.44; p =0.0324; etiologic fraction =0.15) was overrepresented and the DRB1*15 allele group (OR=0.48; p=0.0488; protective fraction=0.19) was underrepresented among household contacts exhibiting tuberculosis. The presence of DRB1 shared alleles between primary cases and their contacts was a risk factor for tuberculosis (p=0.0281). Conclusion This household contact model together with the utilisation of two genetic variables permitted the evaluation of genetic factors contributing towards tuberculosis development.

Use of hyaluronidase to prevent perineal trauma during spontaneous delivery: A pilot study

Our objective was to compare the frequency, degree, and location of perineal trauma during spontaneous delivery with or without perineal injections of hyaluronidase (HAase). This was a randomized, controlled pilot study, conducted in a midwifie-led hospital birth center in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Primiparous women (N = 139) were randomly assigned to an intervention group (HAase injection, n = 71) or to a control group (no injection, n = 68). Significant differences were noted between the two groups in frequency of perineal trauma (intervention, 39.4%; control, 76.5%), degree of spontaneous laceration (intervention, 0.0%; control, 82.4%), and laceration located in the posterior region of the perineum (intervention, 54.2%; control, 84.3%). When episiotomy and second-degree lacerations were considered together and women with intact perineum were excluded from the analysis, the difference between the groups was no longer significant. With the use of the HAase enzyme, the relative risk was 0.5 for perineal trauma and 0.0 for second-degree lacerations. The present findings suggest that perineal injection of HAase prevented perineal trauma. These findings provide strong rationale for a larger follow-up study.

Outcome with calcium channel antagonists after myocardial infarction: A community-based study

Objectives. We sought to estimate the risk of death and recurrent myocardial infarction associated with the use of calcium antagonists after myocardial infarction in a population-based cohort study. Background. Calcium antagonists are commonly prescribed after myocardial infarction, but their long-term effects are not well established. Methods. Patients 25 to 69 years old with a suspected myocardial infarction were identified and followed up through a community-based register of myocardial infarction and cardiac death (part of the World Health Organization Monitoring Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease [MONICA] Project in Newcastle, Australia). Data were collected by review of medical records, in-hospital interview and review of death certificates. Results. From 1989 to 1993, 3,982 patients with a nonfatal suspected myocardial infarction were enrolled in the study. At hospital discharge, 1,001 patients were treated with beta-adrenergic blocking agents, 923 with calcium antagonists, 711 with both beta-blockers and calcium antagonists and 1,346 with neither drug. Compared with patients given beta-blockers, patients given calcium antagonists were more likely to suffer myocardial infarction or cardiac death (adjusted relative risk [RR] 1.4, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0 to 1.9), cardiac death (RR 1.6, 95% CI 1.0 to 2.7) and death from all causes (RR 1.7, 95% CI 1.1 to 2.6). Compared with patients given neither beta-blockers nor calcium antagonists, patients given calcium antagonists were not at increased risk of myocardial infarction or cardiac death (RR 1.0, 95% CI 0.8 to 1.3), cardiac death (RR 0.9, 95% CI 0.6 to 1.2) or death from all causes (RR 1.0, 95% CI 0.7 to 1.3). No excess in risk of myocardial infarction or cardiac death was observed among patients taking verapamil (RR 0.9, 95% CI 0.6 to 1.6), diltiazem (RR 1.1, 95% CI 0.8 to 1.4) or nifedipine (RR 1.3, 95% CI 0.7 to 2.2) compared,vith patients taking neither calcium antagonists nor beta-blockers. Conclusions. These results are consistent with randomized trial data showing benefit from beta blockers after myocardial infarction and no effect on the risk of recurrent myocardial infarction and death with the use of calcium antagonists. Comparisons between beta-blockers and calcium antagonists favor beta blockers because of the beneficial effects of beta-blockers and not because of adverse effects of calcium antagonists. (C) 1998 by the American College of Cardiology.

Coronary events and exposure to environmental tobacco smoke: a case-control study from Australia and New Zealand

Objectives-To estimate the relative risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) associated with exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS). Design-Population-based case-control study. Subjects-Cases were 953 people identified in a population register of coronary events, and controls were 3189 participants in independent community-based risk factor prevalence surveys from the same study populations. Setting-Newcastle, Australia and Auckland, New Zealand. Main outcome measures-Acute myocardial infarction or coronary death. Results-After adjusting for the effects of age, education, history of heart disease, and body mass index, women had a statistically significant increased risk of a coronary event associated with exposure to ETS (relative risk (RR) = 1.99; 95% confidence interval (CI)= 1.40-2.81). There was little statistical evidence of increased risk found in men (RR = 1.02, 95% CI = 0.81-1.28). Conclusion-Our study found evidence for the adverse effects of exposure to ETS on risk of coronary heart disease among women, especially at home. For men the issue is unclear according to the data from our study. Additional studies with detailed information on possible confounders and adequate statistical power are needed. Most importantly, they should use methods for measuring exposure to ETS that are sufficiently accurate to permit the investigation of dose-response relationships.

Hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatitis C infection is associated with the development of hepatocellular carcinoma, and progress has been made in a number of areas. Transgenic mice lines expressing the hepatitis C core protein develop hepatic steatosis, adenomas, and hepatocellular carcinomas, with no significant hepatitis or fibrosis. This implies that hepatitis C can lead directly to malignant transformation, A new lesion, irregular regeneration, has been described in chronic hepatitis C infection and is associated with a 15-fold increase in the relative risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma. A minority of patients with hepatitis C-related hepatocellular carcinoma have intense lymphocytic infiltration of the cancer, a feature associated with a better prognosis, Several studies have confirmed the association between large cell dysplasia and hepatocellular carcinoma, However, large cell dysplasia may not be a premalignant lesion and instead may be a marker for premalignant alterations elsewhere in the liver. Oral contraceptives previously have been linked to an increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma. A large multicenter European case-control study has shown minimal increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma with use of steroidal contraception. Tamoxifen had shown promise in the management of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma. However, a randomized placebo-controlled study of 477 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma found no benefit from tamoxifen, In a preliminary study, however, octreotide has shown improved survival and quality of life in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma, Finally, interferon treatment continues to be linked to a reduced risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with hepatitis C, These studies generally are not randomized, and a randomized prospective study is required to address this issue. (C) 1999 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc.

Urban and rural suicide differentials in migrants and the Australian-born, New South Wales, Australia 1985-1994

We estimated risk of suicide in adults in New South Wales (NSW) by sex, country of birth and rural/urban residence, after adjusting for age; we also examined youth suicide (age 15-24 years). The study population was the entire population of NSW, Australia, aged greater than or equal to 15 years during the period 1985-1994. Poisson regression was used to examine the relationship between predictor variables and the risk of suicide, with the focus on migrant status and area of residence. A significantly higher risk of suicide was found in male migrants from Northern Europe and Eastern Europe/former USSR, compared to Australian-born males; a significantly lower suicide risk occurred in males from Southern Europe, the Middle East and Asia. In female migrants, those from UK/Eire, Northern Europe, Eastern Europe/former USSR and New Zealand exhibited a significantly higher risk of suicide compared to Australian-born females. A significantly lower risk of suicide occurred in females from the Middle East. Male migrants overall were at significantly lower risk of suicide than the Australian-born, while female migrants overall had a significantly higher risk of suicide than Australian-born females. Among migrant males overall, the rural-urban suicide risk differential was significantly higher for those living in non-metropolitan areas (RR = 1.9; 95% CI: 1.7-2.1). Suicide risk was significantly higher in non-metropolitan male immigrants from the UK/Eire (RR = 1.4; 95% CI: 1.1-1.7), Southern Europe (RR = 1.7; 95% CI: 1.2-2.4), Northern/Western Europe (1.5; 95% CI: 1.2-1.9), the Middle East (RR = 3.8; 95% CI: 1.9-7.8), New :Zealand (RR = 1.4; 95% CI: 1.0-1.8) and 'other' (RR = 2.6; 95% CI: 1.9-3.5), when compared to their urban counterparts. There was no statistically significant difference in suicide risk between rural and urban Australian-born males. For female suicide, significantly lower risk was found in female immigrants living in non-metropolitan areas who were from Northern/Western Europe (RR = 0.7; 95% CI: 0.4-0.96), as well as the Australian-born (RR = 0.7; 95% CI: 0.6-0.8), when compared to their urban counterparts. The non-metropolitan/metropolitan relative risk for suicide in female migrants overall was not significantly different from one. Among male youth there was a significantly higher suicide risk in non-metropolitan areas, with a relative risk estimate of 1.4 for Australian-born youth (95% CI: 1.2-1.5) and 1.7 for migrant youth (95% CI: 1.2-2.4), when compared with metropolitan counterparts. We conclude that suicide among migrant males living in non-metropolitan areas accounts for most of the excess of male suicide in rural NSW, and the significantly lower risk of suicide for non-metropolitan Australian-born women does not apply to migrant women. (C) 1999 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Women drivers' behaviour, socio-demographic characteristics and accidents

The purpose of this study was to examine factors which affect driving behaviour and accident rates in women in Australia. Two groups of women (aged 18-23 and 45-50 years) participating in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health, completed a mailed questionnaire on driver behaviour and road accidents. Self reported accident rates in the last 3 years were 1.87 per 100 000 km for the young drivers (n = 1199) and 0.59 per 100 000 km for the mid-age drivers (n = 1564); most accidents involved damage only, not injury. Mean scores for lapses obtained using the Driver Behaviour Questionnaire, were similar in the two age groups and similar to those found in other studies. In contrast, scores for errors and violations for the young women were higher than for the mid-age group and previous reports using the same instruments. Riskier driving behaviour among young women was associated with stress and habitual alcohol consumption. In the mid-age group, poorer driver behaviour scores were related to higher levels of education, feeling rushed, higher habitual alcohol consumption and lower life satisfaction scores. Accident rates in both groups were significantly related to lapses. Women born in non-English speaking countries had significantly higher risk of accidents compared to Australian-born women: relative risk = 3.40, 95% confidence interval (1.93, 5.98) for the young drivers; relative risk = 1.77, 95% confidence interval (1.11, 2.83) for mid-age drivers. These findings support the need for road safety campaigns targeted at young women to reduce dangerous driving practices, such as speeding,'tail gating' and overtaking on the inside. There is also a need for further research to understand how lifestyle characteristics are associated with higher risk of accidents and to explore factors which might account for the higher risk for women drivers who were born overseas. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Continuity of care and readmission in two service systems: a comparative Victorian and Groningen case-register study

Objective: We compared service consumption, continuity of care and risk of readmission in a record linkage follow-up study of cohorts of patients with schizophrenia and related disorders in Victoria (Australia) and in Groningen (The Netherlands). These areas are interesting to compare because mental health care is in a different stage of deiustitutionalization. More beds are available in Groningen and more community resources are available in Victoria. Method: The cohorts were followed for 4 years, since discharge from inpatient services using record linkage data available in the psychiatric case-registers in both areas. Survival analysis was used to study continuity of care and risk of readmission. Results: Available indicators showed a higher level of continuity of care in Victoria. While the relative risk of readmission was the same in both areas and not affected by aftercare contact after discharge, the number of days spent in hospital was much higher in the Groningen register area. Conclusion: These findings provide further support for earlier reports that the risk of readmission is predominantly affected by attributes of mental illness. However, the duration of admissions, is strongly affected by service system variables, including the provision of continuity of care.

Beyond ovulation: Oral contraceptives and epithelial ovarian cancer

In a case-control study in three Australian states that included 794 women with epithelial ovarian cancer and 853 community controls for whom we had adequate contraceptive and reproductive histories, Re examined the effects of oral contraceptive use after controlling for estimated number of ovulatory cycles. Other covariates included in the multiple logistic regression analysis were parity, smoking, and history of pelvic surgery. The protective effect of duration of oral contraceptive use appeared to be multiplicative, with a 7% decrease in relative risk per year [95% confidence interval (CI) = 4-9%], persisting beyond 15 years of exposure. Use for up to 1 year may have a greater effect than predicted (odds ratio = 0.57; 95% CI = 0.40-0.82), whereas use before the first pregnancy may be additionally beneficial (odds ratio = 0.95; 95% CI = 0.87-1.03, adjusted for overall duration of use). Better control for ovulatory life might attenuate these estimates somewhat. There was little evidence of waning protection with time since last exposure or of extra benefit with early commencement of oral contraceptive use. We found no convincing evidence of effect modification in any factor examined or differences in effect among the three main histologic cancer types or between borderline and malignant tumors. Oral contraceptives may act by both suppressing ovulation and altering the tumor-promoting milieu.

Community care and criminal offending in schizophrenia

Background The introduction of community care in psychiatry is widely thought to have resulted in more offending among the seriously mentally ill. This view affects public policy towards and public perceptions of such people. We investigated the association between the introduction of community care and the pattern of offending in patients with schizophrenia in Victoria, Australia. Methods We established patterns of offending from criminal records in two groups of patients with schizophrenia over their lifetime to date and in the 10 years after their first hospital admission. One group was first admitted in 1975 before major deinstitutionalisation in Victoria, the second group in 1985 when community care was becoming the norm. Each patient was matched to a control, by age, sex, and place of residence to allow for changing patterns of offending over time in the wider community. Findings Compared with controls, significantly more of those with schizophrenia were convicted at least once for ail categories of criminal offending except sexual offences (relative risk of offending in 1975=3.5 [95% CI 2.0-5.5), p=0.001, in 1985=3.0 [1.9-4.9], p=0.001). Among men, more offences were committed in the 1985 group than the 1975 group, but this was matched by a similar increase in convictions among the community controls. Those with schizophrenia who had also received treatment for substance abuse accounted for a disproportionate amount of offending. Analysis of admission data for the patients and the total population of admissions with schizophrenia showed that although there had been an increase of 74 days per annum spent in the community for each of the study population as a whole, first admissions spent only 1 more day in the community in 1985 compared with 1975. Interpretation Increased rates in criminal conviction for those with schizophrenia over the last 20 years are consistent with change in the pattern of offending in the general community. Deinstitutionalisation does not adequately explain such change. Mental-health services should aim to reduce the raised rates of criminal offending associated with schizophrenia, but turning the clock back on community care is unlikely to contribute towards any positive outcome.

Passive smoking and lung cancer: a cumulative meta-analysis

Objective: To review the epidemiological evidence for the association between passive smoking and lung cancer. Method: Primary studies and meta-analyses examining the relationship between passive smoking and lung cancer were identified through a computerised literature search of Medline and Embase, secondary references, and experts in the field of passive smoking. Primary studies meeting the inclusion criteria were meta-analysed. Results From 1981 to the end of 1999 there have been 76 primary epidemiological studies of passive smoking and lung cancer, and 20 meta-analyses. There were 43 primary studies that met the inclusion criteria for this meta-analysis; more studies than previous assessments. The pooled relative risk (RR) for never-smoking women exposed to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) from spouses, compared with unexposed never-smoking women was 1.29 (95% CI 1.17-1.43). Sequential cumulative meta-analysed results for each year from 1981 were calculated: since 1992 the RR has been greater than 1.25. For Western industrialised countries the RR for never-smoking women exposed to ETS compared with unexposed never-smoking women, was 1.21 (95% CI 1.10-1.33). Previously published international spousal meta-analyses have all produced statistically significant RRs greater than 1.17. Conclusions The abundance of evidence in this paper, and the consistency of findings across domestic and workplace primary studies, dosimetric extrapolations and meta-analyses, clearly indicates that non-smokers exposed to ETS are at increased risk of lung cancer. Implications: The recommended public health policy is for a total ban on smoking in enclosed public places and work sites.

Production under uncertainty and choice under uncertainty in the emergence of generalized expected utility theory

This paper presents a personal view of the interaction between the analysis of choice under uncertainty and the analysis of production under uncertainty. Interest in the foundations of the theory of choice under uncertainty was stimulated by applications of expected utility theory such as the Sandmo model of production under uncertainty. This interest led to the development of generalized models including rank-dependent expected utility theory. In turn, the development of generalized expected utility models raised the question of whether such models could be used in the analysis of applied problems such as those involving production under uncertainty. Finally, the revival of the state-contingent approach led to the recognition of a fundamental duality between choice problems and production problems.

Systematic review: Terlipressin in acute oesophageal variceal haemorrhage

Background: Controversy exists surrounding pharmacological therapy in acute variceal bleeding. Methods: To determine the efficacy and safety of terlipressin. Methods: Randomized trials were identified and duplicate, independent, review identified 20 randomized trials involving 1609 patients that compared terlipressin with placebo, balloon tamponade, endoscopic treatment, octreotide, somatostatin or vasopressin for treatment of acute oesophageal variceal haemorrhage. Results: Meta-analysis showed that compared to placebo, terlipressin reduced mortality (relative risk 0.66, 95% CI 0.49-0.88), failure of haemostasis (relative risk 0.63, 95% CI 0.45-0.89) and the number of emergency procedures per patient required for uncontrolled bleeding or rebleeding (relative risk 0.72, 95% CI 0.55-0.93). When used as an adjuvant to endoscopic sclerotherapy, terlipressin reduced failure of haemostasis (relative risk 0.75, 95% CI 0.58-0.96), and had an effect on reducing mortality that approached statistical significance (relative risk 0.74, 95% CI 0.53-1.04). No significant difference was demonstrated between terlipressin and endoscopic sclerotherapy, balloon tamponade, somatostatin or vasopressin. Haemostasis was achieved more frequently with octreotide compared to terlipressin (relative risk 1.62, 95% CI 1.05-2.50), but this result was based on unblinded studies. Adverse events were similar between terlipressin and the other comparison groups except for vasopressin, which caused more withdrawals due to adverse events. Conclusions: Terlipressin is a safe and effective treatment for acute oesophageal variceal bleeding, with or without adjuvant endoscopic sclerotherapy. Terlipressin appears to reduce mortality in acute oesophageal variceal bleeding compared to placebo, and is the only pharmacological agent shown to do so. Future studies will be required to detect potential mortality differences between terlipressin and other therapeutic approaches.

How well does B-type natriuretic peptide predict death and cardiac events in patients with heart failure: systematic review

Objective To assess how well B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) predicts prognosis in patients with heart failure. Design Systematic review of studies assessing BNP for prognosis m patients with heart failure or asymptomatic patients. Data sources Electronic searches of Medline and Embase from January 1994 to March 2004 and reference lists of included studies. Study selection and data extraction We included all studies that estimated the relation between BNP measurement and the risk of death, cardiac death, sudden death, or cardiovascular event in patients with heart failure or asymptomatic patients, including initial values and changes in values in response to treatment. Multivariable models that included both BNP and left ventricular ejection fraction as predictors were used to compare the prognostic value of each variable. Two reviewers independently selected studies and extracted data. Data synthesis 19 studies used BNP to estimate the relative risk of death or cardiovascular events in heart failure patients and five studies in asymptomatic patients. In heart failure patients, each 100 pg/ml increase was associated with a 35% increase in the relative risk of death. BNP was used in 35 multivariable models of prognosis. In nine of the models, it was the only variable to reach significance-that is, other variables contained no prognostic information beyond that of BNP. Even allowing for the scale of the variables, it seems to be a strong indicator of risk. Conclusion Although systematic reviews of prognostic studies have inherent difficulties, including die possibility of publication bias, the results of the studies in this review show that BNP is a strong prognostic indicator for both asymptomatic patients mid for patients with heart failure at all stages of disease.

A comparison of lipid variables as predictors of cardiovascular disease in the Asia Pacific Region

PURPOSE: Many guidelines advocate measurement of total or low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), and triglycerides (TG) to determine treatment recommendations for preventing coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). This analysis is a comparison of lipid variables as predictors of cardiovascular disease. METHODS: Hazard ratios for coronary and cardiovascular deaths by fourths of total cholesterol (TC), LDL, HDL, TG, non-HDL, TC/HDL, and TG/HDL values, and for a one standard deviation change in these variables, were derived in an individual participant data meta-analysis of 32 cohort studies conducted in the Asia-Pacific region. The predictive value of each lipid variable was assessed using the likelihood ratio statistic. RESULTS: Adjusting for confounders and regression dilution, each lipid variable had a positive (negative for HDL) log-linear association with fatal CHD and CVD. Individuals in the highest fourth of each lipid variable had approximately twice the risk of CHD compared with those with lowest levels. TG and HDL were each better predictors of CHD and CVD risk compared with TC alone, with test statistics similar to TC/HDL and TG/HDL ratios. Calculated LDL was a relatively poor predictor. CONCLUSIONS: While LDL reduction remains the main target of intervention for lipid-lowering, these data support the potential use of TG or lipid ratios for CHD risk prediction. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.