A three-regime model of speculative behaviour: modelling the evolution of the S&P 500 composite index

We examine whether a three-regime model that allows for dormant, explosive and collapsing speculative behaviour can explain the dynamics of the S&P 500. We extend existing models of speculative behaviour by including a third regime that allows a bubble to grow at a steady rate, and propose abnormal volume as an indicator of the probable time of bubble collapse. We also examine the financial usefulness of the three-regime model by studying a trading rule formed using inferences from it, whose use leads to higher Sharpe ratios and end of period wealth than from employing existing models or a buy-and-hold strategy.

Croig Cave: a late Bronze Age ornament deposition and 3,500 years of coastal foraging in NW Mull, Scotland

Activity within caves provides an important element of the later prehistoric and historic settlement pattern of western Scotland. This contribution reports on a small-scale excavation within Croig Cave, on the coast of north-west Mull, that exposed a 1.95m sequence of midden deposits and cave floors that dated bewteen c 1700 BC and AD 1400. Midden analysis indicated the processing of a .... 950 BC, a penannular copper bracelet a discrete ritual episode within the cycle of otherwise potentially mundane activities. Lead isotope analysis indicates an Irish origin for the copper ore. A piece of iron slag within later midden deposits, dated to c 400 BC, along with high frequencies of wood charcoal, suggest that smithing or smelting may have occurred within the cave. High zinc levels in the historic levels of the midden c AD 1200 might indicate intensive processing of seaweed.

Stability of dobutamine 500 mg in 50 ml syringes prepared using a Central Intravenous Additive Service

Objectives A pharmacy Central Intravenous Additives Service (CIVAS) provides ready to use injectable medicines. However, manipulation of a licensed injectable medicine may significantly alter the stability of drug(s) in the final product. The aim of this study was to develop a stability indicating assay for CIVAS produced dobutamine 500 mg in 50 ml dextrose 1% (w/v) prefilled syringes, and to allocate a suitable shelf life. Methods A stability indicating high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) assay was established for dobutamine. The stability of dobutamine prefilled syringes was evaluated under storage conditions of 4°C (protected from light), room temperature (protected from light), room temperature (exposed to light) and 40°C (protected from light) at various time points (up to 42 days). Results An HPLC method employing a Hypersil column, mobile phase (pH=4.0) consisting of 82:12:6 (v/v/v) 0.05 M KH2PO4:acetonitrile:methanol plus 0.3% (v/v) triethylamine with UV detection at λ=280 nm was specific for dobutamine. Under different storage conditions only samples stored at 40°C showed greater than 5% degradation (5.08%) at 42 days and had the shortest T95% based on this criterion (44.6 days compared with 111.4 days for 4°C). Exposure to light also reduced dobutamine stability. Discolouration on storage was the limiting factor in shelf life allocation, even when dobutamine remained within 5% of the initial concentration. Conclusions A stability indicating HPLC assay for dobutamine was developed. The shelf life recommended for the CIVAS product was 42 days at 4°C and 35 days at room temperature when protected from light.

Jump and variance risk premia in the S&P 500

We analyze the risk premia embedded in the S&P 500 spot index and option markets. We use a long time-series of spot prices and a large panel of option prices to jointly estimate the diffusive stock risk premium, the price jump risk premium, the diffusive variance risk premium and the variance jump risk premium. The risk premia are statistically and economically significant and move over time. Investigating the economic drivers of the risk premia, we are able to explain up to 63 % of these variations.

Isotopic evidence for the late Brasiliano (500-550 Ma) ore-forming mineralization of the Araes gold deposit, Brazil

The Araes gold deposit, located in eastern Mato Grosso State, central Brazil, is hosted in Neoproterozoic volcanosedimentary rocks of the Paraguay belt, which formed during collision of the Amazonian craton and the Rio Apa block. Ar-40/Ar-39 geochronology and Pb and S isotopic analyses constrain the timing and sources of mineralization. Three biotite flakes from two samples of metavolcanic host rock yield Ar-40/Ar-39 plateau ages between 5941 and 531 Ma, interpreted as cooling ages following regional metamorphism. Clay minerals from a hydrothermal alteration zone yield an Ar-40/Ar-39 integrated age of 503 +/- 3 Ma. Galena grains from ore-bearing veins yield values of Pb-206/(204)pb from 17.952 to 18.383, Pb-207/Pb-204 from 15.156 to 15.811, and Pb-208/Pb-204 from 38.072 to 39.681. Pyrite grains from ore-bearing veins yield values of Pb-206/Pb-204 from 18.037 to 18.202, Pb-207/Pb-204 from 15.744 to 15.901., and Pb-208/(204)pb from 38.338 to 38.800. Pb isotope variations may be explained in terms of mixing a less radiogenic lead component (mu similar to 8.4) from mafic and ultramafic basement host-rocks (Nova Xavantina metavolcanosedimentary rocks) and a more radiogenic lead component (mu similar to 9.2) probably derived from supracrustal rocks (Cuiaba sedimentary groups). Sulfur isotope compositions are homogeneous, with delta S-34 values ranging from -1.1 parts per thousand to 0.9 parts per thousand (galena) and -0.7 parts per thousand to 0.9 parts per thousand (pyrite), suggesting a mantle-derived reservoir for the mineralizing solutions. Based on the Ar, Pb, and S isotope data, we suggest that the precious metals were remobilized from metavolcanic host rocks by hydrothermal solutions during Brasilide-Panafrican regional metamorphism. The Arabs gold deposit probably formed during a late stage of the orogeny, coeval with other mineralization events in the Paraguay Belt.

Organizações humanizadas - o caso do Brasil 500 anos

A responsabilidade social tem se tornado tema de grande interesse no meio empresarial e acadêmico. Em tese, algumas empresas estão percebendo que a sustentabilidade dos seus negócios não será possível em um ambiente no qual os problemas sociais se agravam a cada dia. Esta pesquisa teve objetivo analisar a questão da responsabilidade social, aqui entendida como humanização nas organizações. Para tanto, foi realizado um estudo de caso: o projeto Brasil 500 anos, da Rede Globo de Televisão. Os resultados sugerem que o projeto mencionado (e a Rede que o abriga) possui características do que se denomina organizações humanizadas e que está alcançando objetivos tidos como importantes diferenciais no mundo atual.

Execução de túneis nas formações vulcânicas da Ilha da Madeira: o caso do túnel 1 da nova ligação Vasco Gil-Fundoa à cota 500

Este trabalho pretende contribuir para um melhor conhecimento ao nível da execução de túneis em formações vulcânicas, mais especificamente na Ilha da Madeira, visto esta região ter sido nos últimos anos palco da construção de inúmeros túneis rodoviários, que forneceram novos dados, experiencias e metodologias na execução de túneis em maciços vulcânicos. Assim sendo, esta tese foca inicialmente a geologia da Ilha da Madeira com o objectivo de dar a conhecer as características litológicas das rochas que compõem os maciços vulcânicos assim como é feita uma abordagem à história e evolução dos túneis existentes na região, com realce para os vários tipos de túneis executados e para os acidentes mais comuns que acontecem durante a escavação neste tipo de maciços. Depois são abordados os estudos geológicos e geotécnicos que são indispensáveis antes do inicio da execução dos túneis e também os métodos de escavação utilizados em maciços vulcânicos. É ainda abordado o estudo das vibrações causadas pelo uso de explosivos na escavação de túneis visto ser o método mais usado na região. Por fim é relatado o acompanhamento realizado durante a execução de um túnel na Ilha da Madeira, com particular destaque ao estudo das vibrações causadas devido à detonação de explosivos.