Role of smoking in global and regional cancer epidemiology: current patterns and data needs

Although smoking is widely recognized as a major cause of cancer, there is little information on how it contributes to the global and regional burden of cancers in combination with other risk factors that affect background cancer mortality patterns. We used data from the American Cancer Society's Cancer Prevention Study II (CPS-II) and the WHO and IARC cancer mortality databases to estimate deaths from 8 clusters of site-specific cancers caused by smoking, for 14 epidemiologic subregions of the world, by age and sex. We used lung cancer mortality as an indirect marker for accumulated smoking hazard. CPS-II hazards were adjusted for important covariates. In the year 2000, an estimated 1.42 (95% CI 1.27-1.57) million cancer deaths in the world, 21% of total global cancer deaths, were caused by smoking. Of these, 1.18 million deaths were among men and 0.24 million among women; 625,000 (95% CI 485,000-749,000) smoking-caused cancer deaths occurred in the developing world and 794,000 (95% CI 749,000-840,000) in industrialized regions. Lung cancer accounted for 60% of smoking-attributable cancer mortality, followed by cancers of the upper aerodigestive tract (20%). Based on available data, more than one in every 5 cancer deaths in the world in the year 2000 were caused by smoking, making it possibly the single largest preventable cause of cancer mortality. There was significant variability across regions in the role of smoking as a cause of the different site-specific cancers. This variability illustrates the importance of coupling research and surveillance of smoking with that for other risk factors for more effective cancer prevention. (C) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Electricity market price spike forecast with data mining techniques

Electricity market price forecast is a changeling yet very important task for electricity market managers and participants. Due to the complexity and uncertainties in the power grid, electricity prices are highly volatile and normally carry with spikes. which may be (ens or even hundreds of times higher than the normal price. Such electricity spikes are very difficult to be predicted. So far. most of the research on electricity price forecast is based on the normal range electricity prices. This paper proposes a data mining based electricity price forecast framework, which can predict the normal price as well as the price spikes. The normal price can be, predicted by a previously proposed wavelet and neural network based forecast model, while the spikes are forecasted based on a data mining approach. This paper focuses on the spike prediction and explores the reasons for price spikes based on the measurement of a proposed composite supply-demand balance index (SDI) and relative demand index (RDI). These indices are able to reflect the relationship among electricity demand, electricity supply and electricity reserve capacity. The proposed model is based on a mining database including market clearing price, trading hour. electricity), demand, electricity supply and reserve. Bayesian classification and similarity searching techniques are used to mine the database to find out the internal relationships between electricity price spikes and these proposed. The mining results are used to form the price spike forecast model. This proposed model is able to generate forecasted price spike, level of spike and associated forecast confidence level. The model is tested with the Queensland electricity market data with promising results. Crown Copyright (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

IJDWM Special Issue: Advances in Data Mining Applications

This special issue is a collection of the selected papers published on the proceedings of the First International Conference on Advanced Data Mining and Applications (ADMA) held in Wuhan, China in 2005. The articles focus on the innovative applications of data mining approaches to the problems that involve large data sets, incomplete and noise data, or demand optimal solutions.

Diagnosis of diabetes mellitus: case of different cutoff values: A data mining approach

Objective: An estimation of cut-off points for the diagnosis of diabetes mellitus (DM) based on individual risk factors. Methods: A subset of the 1991 Oman National Diabetes Survey is used, including all patients with a 2h post glucose load >= 200 mg/dl (278 subjects) and a control group of 286 subjects. All subjects previously diagnosed as diabetic and all subjects with missing data values were excluded. The data set was analyzed by use of the SPSS Clementine data mining system. Decision Tree Learners (C5 and CART) and a method for mining association rules (the GRI algorithm) are used. The fasting plasma glucose (FPG), age, sex, family history of diabetes and body mass index (BMI) are input risk factors (independent variables), while diabetes onset (the 2h post glucose load >= 200 mg/dl) is the output (dependent variable). All three techniques used were tested by use of crossvalidation (89.8%). Results: Rules produced for diabetes diagnosis are: A- GRI algorithm (1) FPG>=108.9 mg/dl, (2) FPG>=107.1 and age>39.5 years. B- CART decision trees: FPG >=110.7 mg/dl. C- The C5 decision tree learner: (1) FPG>=95.5 and 54, (2) FPG>=106 and 25.2 kg/m2. (3) FPG>=106 and =133 mg/dl. The three techniques produced rules which cover a significant number of cases (82%), with confidence between 74 and 100%. Conclusion: Our approach supports the suggestion that the present cut-off value of fasting plasma glucose (126 mg/dl) for the diagnosis of diabetes mellitus needs revision, and the individual risk factors such as age and BMI should be considered in defining the new cut-off value.

Using the Agglomerative Method of Hierarchical Clustering as a Data Mining Tool in Capital Market

The purpose of this paper is to explain the notion of clustering and a concrete clustering method- agglomerative hierarchical clustering algorithm. It shows how a data mining method like clustering can be applied to the analysis of stocks, traded on the Bulgarian Stock Exchange in order to identify similar temporal behavior of the traded stocks. This problem is solved with the aid of a data mining tool that is called XLMiner™ for Microsoft Excel Office.

Feature Extraction for Classification in the Data Mining Process

Dimensionality reduction is a very important step in the data mining process. In this paper, we consider feature extraction for classification tasks as a technique to overcome problems occurring because of “the curse of dimensionality”. Three different eigenvector-based feature extraction approaches are discussed and three different kinds of applications with respect to classification tasks are considered. The summary of obtained results concerning the accuracy of classification schemes is presented with the conclusion about the search for the most appropriate feature extraction method. The problem how to discover knowledge needed to integrate the feature extraction and classification processes is stated. A decision support system to aid in the integration of the feature extraction and classification processes is proposed. The goals and requirements set for the decision support system and its basic structure are defined. The means of knowledge acquisition needed to build up the proposed system are considered.

Data Mining for Browsing Patterns in Weblog Data by Art Neural Networks

Categorising visitors based on their interaction with a website is a key problem in Web content usage. The clickstreams generated by various users often follow distinct patterns, the knowledge of which may help in providing customised content. This paper proposes an approach to clustering weblog data, based on ART2 neural networks. Due to the characteristics of the ART2 neural network model, the proposed approach can be used for unsupervised and self-learning data mining, which makes it adaptable to dynamically changing websites.

Classification of Smoking Cessation Status Using Various Data Mining Methods

AMS Subj. Classification: 62P10, 62H30, 68T01

Applying Data Mining Tools in E-Learning

Report published in the Proceedings of the National Conference on "Education and Research in the Information Society", Plovdiv, May, 2014

Data Mining for Software Development Life Cycle Quality Management

Computer software plays an important role in business, government, society and sciences. To solve real-world problems, it is very important to measure the quality and reliability in the software development life cycle (SDLC). Software Engineering (SE) is the computing field concerned with designing, developing, implementing, maintaining and modifying software. The present paper gives an overview of the Data Mining (DM) techniques that can be applied to various types of SE data in order to solve the challenges posed by SE tasks such as programming, bug detection, debugging and maintenance. A specific DM software is discussed, namely one of the analytical tools for analyzing data and summarizing the relationships that have been identified. The paper concludes that the proposed techniques of DM within the domain of SE could be well applied in fields such as Customer Relationship Management (CRM), eCommerce and eGovernment. ACM Computing Classification System (1998): H.2.8.

Development of prediction models for freeway incident durations using data mining techniques

The nation's freeway systems are becoming increasingly congested. A major contribution to traffic congestion on freeways is due to traffic incidents. Traffic incidents are non-recurring events such as accidents or stranded vehicles that cause a temporary roadway capacity reduction, and they can account for as much as 60 percent of all traffic congestion on freeways. One major freeway incident management strategy involves diverting traffic to avoid incident locations by relaying timely information through Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) devices such as dynamic message signs or real-time traveler information systems. The decision to divert traffic depends foremost on the expected duration of an incident, which is difficult to predict. In addition, the duration of an incident is affected by many contributing factors. Determining and understanding these factors can help the process of identifying and developing better strategies to reduce incident durations and alleviate traffic congestion. A number of research studies have attempted to develop models to predict incident durations, yet with limited success. ^ This dissertation research attempts to improve on this previous effort by applying data mining techniques to a comprehensive incident database maintained by the District 4 ITS Office of the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT). Two categories of incident duration prediction models were developed: "offline" models designed for use in the performance evaluation of incident management programs, and "online" models for real-time prediction of incident duration to aid in the decision making of traffic diversion in the event of an ongoing incident. Multiple data mining analysis techniques were applied and evaluated in the research. The multiple linear regression analysis and decision tree based method were applied to develop the offline models, and the rule-based method and a tree algorithm called M5P were used to develop the online models. ^ The results show that the models in general can achieve high prediction accuracy within acceptable time intervals of the actual durations. The research also identifies some new contributing factors that have not been examined in past studies. As part of the research effort, software code was developed to implement the models in the existing software system of District 4 FDOT for actual applications. ^

Hospitality Data Mining Myths

Electronic database handling of buisness information has gradually gained its popularity in the hospitality industry. This article provides an overview on the fundamental concepts of a hotel database and investigates the feasibility of incorporating computer-assisted data mining techniques into hospitality database applications. The author also exposes some potential myths associated with data mining in hospitaltiy database applications.

Modelling and Mining To Manage

In this talk, I will describe various computational modelling and data mining solutions that form the basis of how the office of Deputy Head of Department (Resources) works to serve you. These include lessons I learn about, and from, optimisation issues in resource allocation, uncertainty analysis on league tables, modelling the process of winning external grants, and lessons we learn from student satisfaction surveys, some of which I have attempted to inject into our planning processes.