The impact on the stationary state income of a pay-as-you-go system of social security

A model of overlapping generations in continuous time is composed. IndividuaIs pass through two distinct time periods during their life times. During the first period, they work, save and have a death probability equal to zero. During the second, from the periods T after birth, their probability of death changes to p and then they retire. Capital stock and the stationary state in come are calculated for two situations: in the first, people live from their accumulated capital after retirementj in the second, they live from a state transfer payment through income taxo To simplify matters, in this preliminary version, it is supposed that there is no population growth and that the instantaneous elasticity substitution of consumption is unitary.

Especulative (sic) attack on exchange rate target zone regime : the uncertainty case

We present a continuous time target zone model of speculative attacks. Contrary to most of the literature that considers the certainty case, i.e., agents know for sure the Central Bank behavior in the future, we build uncertainty into the madel in two different ways. First, we consider the case in whicb the leveI of reserves at which the central bank lets the regime collapse is uncertain. Alternatively, we ana1ize the case in which, with some probability, the government may cbange its policy reducing the initially positive trend in domestic credito In both cases, contrary to the case of a fixed exchange rate regime, speculators face a cost of launching a tentative attack that may not succeed. Such cost induces a delay and may even prevent its occurrence. At the time of the tentative attack, the exchange rate moves either discretely up, if the attack succeeds, or down, if it fails. The remlts are consistent with the fact that, typically, an attack involves substantial profits and losses for the speculators. In particular, if agents believed that the government will control fiscal imbalances in the future, or alternatively, if they believe the trend in domestic credit to be temporary, the attack is postponed even in the presence of a signal of an imminent collapse. Finally, we aIso show that the timing of a speculative attack increases with the width of the target zone.

Pricing and hedging of oil futures : a unifying approach

We develop and empirically test a continuous time equilibrium model for the pricing of oil futures. The model provides a link between no-arbitrage models and expectation oriented models. It highlights the role of inventories for the identification of different pricing regimes. In an empirical study the hedging performance of our model is compared with five other one- and two-factor pricing models. The hedging problem considered is related to Metallgesellschaft´s strategy to hedge long-term forward commitments with short-term futures. The results show that the downside risk distribution of our inventory based model stochastically dominates those of the other models.

The long-run economic impact of AIDS

This paper studies the long-run impact of HIV / AIDS on per capita income and education. We introduce a channel from HIV / AIDS to long-run income that has been overlooked by the literature, the reduction of the incentives to study due to shorter expected longevity. We work with a continuous time overlapping generations mo deI in which life cycle features of savings and education decision play key roles. The simulations predict that the most affected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa will be in the future, on average, a quarter poorer than they would be without AIDS, due only to the direct (human capital reduction) and indirect (decline in savings and investment) effects of life-expectancy reductions. Schooling will decline on average by half. These findings are well above previous results in the literature and indicate that, as pessimistic as they may be, at least in economic terms the worst could be yet to come.

Microfounded forecasting

Our focus is on information in expectation surveys that can now be built on thousands (or millions) of respondents on an almost continuous-time basis (big data) and in continuous macroeconomic surveys with a limited number of respondents. We show that, under standard microeconomic and econometric techniques, survey forecasts are an affine function of the conditional expectation of the target variable. This is true whether or not the survey respondent knows the data-generating process (DGP) of the target variable or the econometrician knows the respondents individual loss function. If the econometrician has a mean-squared-error risk function, we show that asymptotically efficient forecasts of the target variable can be built using Hansens (Econometrica, 1982) generalized method of moments in a panel-data context, when N and T diverge or when T diverges with N xed. Sequential asymptotic results are obtained using Phillips and Moon s (Econometrica, 1999) framework. Possible extensions are also discussed.

Análise operacional e econômica do processamento de madeira de Eucalitpo com Hypro em região montanhosa

O processo constante de avaliação técnica e econômica dos sistemas de colheita de madeira é intrínseco às empresas florestais, devido ao fato de corresponder a uma fase de suma importância que despende elevado investimento financeiro. No experimento deste trabalho, estudaram-se o rendimento operacional e custos operacionais e de produção do processador florestal Hypro. A análise técnica englobou estudos de tempos e movimentos pelo método de tempo contínuo. O rendimento operacional foi determinado através do volume, em metros cúbicos de madeira processada. A análise econômica incorporou os parâmetros do custo operacional, custo de processamento da madeira e rendimento energético. A análise dos dados evidenciou que o rendimento operacional por hora efetiva de trabalho foi de 38 árvores e, em metros cúbicos sem casca por hora efetiva de trabalho, de 11,68 m³ h-1, com custo de processamento de madeira sem casca de US$ 6.85 por metro cúbico.

Influência do relevo na produtividade e custos do harvester

Among the several variables that influence timber harvesting is the slope, which influences the productivity of forest machines. In this experiment the harvester was evaluated technically and economically while cutting and processing eucalyptus activity on different slope classes. The technical analysis included a study of time and movements by the method of continuous time; productivity was determined by the volume in cubic meters of wood processing. The economic analysis included the parameters of operational cost, production cost and energy consumption. The analysis of the data showed that productivity decreased according to the increase of the percent slope inclination, resulting in an effective work hour productivity increase from 18.72 to 39.71 m(3)sc, with a mean of operating cost of US$ 78.78 per work hour.

Avaliação técnica e econômica do corte de eucalipto com feller-buncher em diferentes condições operacionais

This study aimed to technically and economically evaluate the Feller-buncher in different conditions of harvest in eucalypt forests of second cut. The technical analysis included a study of time and movements by the method of continuous time, and operational performance was determined by volume in cubic meters of harvested wood. The economic analysis included the parameters of operational cost, harvest cost and energy consumption. The analysis of the data showed that the composition of main line harvesting and the arrangement of bundles of trees influenced operational performance. The average operational cost was US$ 86.26 per hour of actual work, which resulted in an average cost of forest harvesting of US$ 1.09 m(-3).

Analog neural nonderivative optimizers

Continuous-time neural networks for solving convex nonlinear unconstrained;programming problems without using gradient information of the objective function are proposed and analyzed. Thus, the proposed networks are nonderivative optimizers. First, networks for optimizing objective functions of one variable are discussed. Then, an existing one-dimensional optimizer is analyzed, and a new line search optimizer is proposed. It is shown that the proposed optimizer network is robust in the sense that it has disturbance rejection property. The network can be implemented easily in hardware using standard circuit elements. The one-dimensional net is used as a building block in multidimensional networks for optimizing objective functions of several variables. The multidimensional nets implement a continuous version of the coordinate descent method.

A current-mode based Field-Programmable Analog Array for signal processing applications

This paper presents a new approach to develop Field Programmable Analog Arrays (FPAAs),(1) which avoids excessive number of programming elements in the signal path, thus enhancing the performance. The paper also introduces a novel FPAA architecture, devoid of the conventional switching and connection modules. The proposed FPAA is based on simple current mode sub-circuits. An uncompounded methodology has been employed for the programming of the Configurable Analog Cell (CAC). Current mode approach has enabled the operation of the FPAA presented here, over almost three decades of frequency range. We have demonstrated the feasibility of the FPAA by implementing some signal processing functions.

On relaxed LMI-based design for fuzzy controllers

Relaxed conditions for stability of nonlinear continuous-time systems given by fuzzy models axe presented. A theoretical analysis shows that the proposed method provides better or at least the same results of the methods presented in the literature. Digital simulations exemplify this fact. This result is also used for fuzzy regulators design. The nonlinear systems are represented by fuzzy models proposed by Takagi and Sugeno. The stability analysis and the design of controllers axe described by LMIs (Linear Matrix Inequalities), that can be solved efficiently using convex programming techniques.

Variable-Structure Control Design of Switched Systems With an Application to a DC-DC Power Converter

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Less Conservative Control Design for Linear Systems with Polytopic Uncertainties via State-Derivative Feedback

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

O sobre-sinal e a resposta inversa em sistemas de controle lineares contínuos no tempo

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A low-voltage wide-swing programmable-gain current amplifier

A CMOS low-voltage, wide-swing continuous-time current amplifier is presented. Exhibiting an open-loop architecture, the circuit is composed of transresistance and transconductance stages built upon triode-operating transistors. In addition to an extended dynamic range, the current gain can be programmed within good accuracy by a rapport involving only transistor geometries and tuning biases. Low temperature-drift on gain setting is then expected.In accordance with a 0.35 mum n-well CMOS fabrication process and a single 1.1 V-supply, a balanced current-amplifier is designed for a programmable gain-range of 6 - 34 dB and optimized with respect to dynamic range. Simulated results from PSPICE and Bsim3v3 models indicate, for a 100 muA(pp)-output current, a THD of 0.96 and 1.87% at 1 KHz and 100 KHz, respectively. Input noise is 120 pArootHz @ 10 Hz, with S/N = 63.2 dB @ 1%-THD. At maximum gain, total quiescent consumption is 334 muW. Measurements from a prototyped amplifier reveal a gain-interval of 4.8-33.1 dB and a maximum current swing of 120 muA(pp). The current-amplifier bandwidth is above 1 MHz.