Finite mixture analysis of beauty-contest data using generalised beta distributions

This paper introduces a mixture model based on the beta distribution, without preestablishedmeans and variances, to analyze a large set of Beauty-Contest data obtainedfrom diverse groups of experiments (Bosch-Domenech et al. 2002). This model gives a bettert of the experimental data, and more precision to the hypothesis that a large proportionof individuals follow a common pattern of reasoning, described as iterated best reply (degenerate),than mixture models based on the normal distribution. The analysis shows thatthe means of the distributions across the groups of experiments are pretty stable, while theproportions of choices at dierent levels of reasoning vary across groups.

What matters for predicting spatial distributions of trees: techniques, data, or species' characteristics?

Data characteristics and species traits are expected to influence the accuracy with which species' distributions can be modeled and predicted. We compare 10 modeling techniques in terms of predictive power and sensitivity to location error, change in map resolution, and sample size, and assess whether some species traits can explain variation in model performance. We focused on 30 native tree species in Switzerland and used presence-only data to model current distribution, which we evaluated against independent presence-absence data. While there are important differences between the predictive performance of modeling methods, the variance in model performance is greater among species than among techniques. Within the range of data perturbations in this study, some extrinsic parameters of data affect model performance more than others: location error and sample size reduced performance of many techniques, whereas grain had little effect on most techniques. No technique can rescue species that are difficult to predict. The predictive power of species-distribution models can partly be predicted from a series of species characteristics and traits based on growth rate, elevational distribution range, and maximum elevation. Slow-growing species or species with narrow and specialized niches tend to be better modeled. The Swiss presence-only tree data produce models that are reliable enough to be useful in planning and management applications.

Calibrating predicted tree diameter distributions in Catalonia, Spain

Abstract

Modeling and mitigation of supply-demand mismatches

In this thesis, I develop analytical models to price the value of supply chain investments under demand uncer¬tainty. This thesis includes three self-contained papers. In the first paper, we investigate the value of lead-time reduction under the risk of sudden and abnormal changes in demand forecasts. We first consider the risk of a complete and permanent loss of demand. We then provide a more general jump-diffusion model, where we add a compound Poisson process to a constant-volatility demand process to explore the impact of sudden changes in demand forecasts on the value of lead-time reduction. We use an Edgeworth series expansion to divide the lead-time cost into that arising from constant instantaneous volatility, and that arising from the risk of jumps. We show that the value of lead-time reduction increases substantially in the intensity and/or the magnitude of jumps. In the second paper, we analyze the value of quantity flexibility in the presence of supply-chain dis- intermediation problems. We use the multiplicative martingale model and the "contracts as reference points" theory to capture both positive and negative effects of quantity flexibility for the downstream level in a supply chain. We show that lead-time reduction reduces both supply-chain disintermediation problems and supply- demand mismatches. We furthermore analyze the impact of the supplier's cost structure on the profitability of quantity-flexibility contracts. When the supplier's initial investment cost is relatively low, supply-chain disin¬termediation risk becomes less important, and hence the contract becomes more profitable for the retailer. We also find that the supply-chain efficiency increases substantially with the supplier's ability to disintermediate the chain when the initial investment cost is relatively high. In the third paper, we investigate the value of dual sourcing for the products with heavy-tailed demand distributions. We apply extreme-value theory and analyze the effects of tail heaviness of demand distribution on the optimal dual-sourcing strategy. We find that the effects of tail heaviness depend on the characteristics of demand and profit parameters. When both the profit margin of the product and the cost differential between the suppliers are relatively high, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing both the inventory level and the responsive capacity as demand uncertainty increases. In that case, however, both the optimal inventory level and the optimal responsive capacity decrease as the tail of demand becomes heavier. When the profit margin of the product is relatively high, and the cost differential between the suppliers is relatively low, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing the responsive capacity and reducing the inventory level as the demand uncertainty increases. In that case, how¬ever, it is optimal to buffer with more inventory and less capacity as the tail of demand becomes heavier. We also show that the optimal responsive capacity is higher for the products with heavier tails when the fill rate is extremely high.

Prediction of plant species distributions across six millennia.

The usefulness of species distribution models (SDMs) in predicting impacts of climate change on biodiversity is difficult to assess because changes in species ranges may take decades or centuries to occur. One alternative way to evaluate the predictive ability of SDMs across time is to compare their predictions with data on past species distributions. We use data on plant distributions, fossil pollen and current and mid-Holocene climate to test the ability of SDMs to predict past climate-change impacts. We find that species showing little change in the estimated position of their realized niche, with resulting good model performance, tend to be dominant competitors for light. Different mechanisms appear to be responsible for among-species differences in model performance. Confidence in predictions of the impacts of climate change could be improved by selecting species with characteristics that suggest little change is expected in the relationships between species occurrence and climate patterns.

Positive time-frequency distributions based on joint marginal constraints

This correspondence studies the formulation of members ofthe Cohen-Posch class of positive time-frequency energy distributions.Minimization of cross-entropy measures with respect to different priorsand the case of no prior or maximum entropy were considered. It isconcluded that, in general, the information provided by the classicalmarginal constraints is very limited, and thus, the final distributionheavily depends on the prior distribution. To overcome this limitation,joint time and frequency marginals are derived based on a "directioninvariance" criterion on the time-frequency plane that are directly relatedto the fractional Fourier transform.

Making better biogeographical predictions of species' distributions

1. Biogeographical models of species' distributions are essential tools for assessing impacts of changing environmental conditions on natural communities and ecosystems. Practitioners need more reliable predictions to integrate into conservation planning (e.g. reserve design and management). 2. Most models still largely ignore or inappropriately take into account important features of species' distributions, such as spatial autocorrelation, dispersal and migration, biotic and environmental interactions. Whether distributions of natural communities or ecosystems are better modelled by assembling individual species' predictions in a bottom-up approach or modelled as collective entities is another important issue. An international workshop was organized to address these issues. 3. We discuss more specifically six issues in a methodological framework for generalized regression: (i) links with ecological theory; (ii) optimal use of existing data and artificially generated data; (iii) incorporating spatial context; (iv) integrating ecological and environmental interactions; (v) assessing prediction errors and uncertainties; and (vi) predicting distributions of communities or collective properties of biodiversity. 4. Synthesis and applications. Better predictions of the effects of impacts on biological communities and ecosystems can emerge only from more robust species' distribution models and better documentation of the uncertainty associated with these models. An improved understanding of causes of species' distributions, especially at their range limits, as well as of ecological assembly rules and ecosystem functioning, is necessary if further progress is to be made. A better collaborative effort between theoretical and functional ecologists, ecological modellers and statisticians is required to reach these goals.

The Protein quality control system manages plant defence compound synthesis

Jasmonates are ubiquitous oxylipin-derived phytohormones that are essential in the regulation of many development, growth and defence processes. Across the plant kingdom, jasmonates act as elicitors of the production of bioactive secondarymetabolites that serve in defence against attackers. Knowledge of the conserved jasmonate perception and early signalling machineries is increasing, but the downstream mechanisms that regulate defence metabolism remain largely unknown. Herewe showthat, in the legumeMedicago truncatula, jasmonate recruits the endoplasmic-reticulum-associated degradation (ERAD)quality control system tomanagethe production of triterpene saponins, widespread bioactive compounds that share a biogenic origin with sterols. An ERAD-type RING membraneanchor E3 ubiquitin ligase is co-expressed with saponin synthesis enzymes to control the activity of 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-CoA reductase (HMGR), the rate-limiting enzyme in the supply of the ubiquitous terpene precursor isopentenyl diphosphate. Thus, unrestrained bioactive saponin accumulationis prevented and plant development and integrity secured. This control apparatus is equivalent to the ERAD system that regulates sterol synthesis in yeasts and mammals but that uses distinct E3 ubiquitin ligases, of the HMGR degradation 1 (HRD1) type, to direct destruction of HMGR. Hence, the general principles for the management of sterol and triterpene saponin biosynthesis are conserved across eukaryotes but can be controlled by divergent regulatory cues.

The Protein quality control system manages plant defence compound synthesis

Jasmonates are ubiquitous oxylipin-derived phytohormones that are essential in the regulation of many development, growth and defence processes. Across the plant kingdom, jasmonates act as elicitors of the production of bioactive secondarymetabolites that serve in defence against attackers. Knowledge of the conserved jasmonate perception and early signalling machineries is increasing, but the downstream mechanisms that regulate defence metabolism remain largely unknown. Herewe showthat, in the legumeMedicago truncatula, jasmonate recruits the endoplasmic-reticulum-associated degradation (ERAD)quality control system tomanagethe production of triterpene saponins, widespread bioactive compounds that share a biogenic origin with sterols. An ERAD-type RING membraneanchor E3 ubiquitin ligase is co-expressed with saponin synthesis enzymes to control the activity of 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-CoA reductase (HMGR), the rate-limiting enzyme in the supply of the ubiquitous terpene precursor isopentenyl diphosphate. Thus, unrestrained bioactive saponin accumulationis prevented and plant development and integrity secured. This control apparatus is equivalent to the ERAD system that regulates sterol synthesis in yeasts and mammals but that uses distinct E3 ubiquitin ligases, of the HMGR degradation 1 (HRD1) type, to direct destruction of HMGR. Hence, the general principles for the management of sterol and triterpene saponin biosynthesis are conserved across eukaryotes but can be controlled by divergent regulatory cues.

The Protein quality control system manages plant defence compound synthesis

Jasmonates are ubiquitous oxylipin-derived phytohormones that are essential in the regulation of many development, growth and defence processes. Across the plant kingdom, jasmonates act as elicitors of the production of bioactive secondarymetabolites that serve in defence against attackers. Knowledge of the conserved jasmonate perception and early signalling machineries is increasing, but the downstream mechanisms that regulate defence metabolism remain largely unknown. Herewe showthat, in the legumeMedicago truncatula, jasmonate recruits the endoplasmic-reticulum-associated degradation (ERAD)quality control system tomanagethe production of triterpene saponins, widespread bioactive compounds that share a biogenic origin with sterols. An ERAD-type RING membraneanchor E3 ubiquitin ligase is co-expressed with saponin synthesis enzymes to control the activity of 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-CoA reductase (HMGR), the rate-limiting enzyme in the supply of the ubiquitous terpene precursor isopentenyl diphosphate. Thus, unrestrained bioactive saponin accumulationis prevented and plant development and integrity secured. This control apparatus is equivalent to the ERAD system that regulates sterol synthesis in yeasts and mammals but that uses distinct E3 ubiquitin ligases, of the HMGR degradation 1 (HRD1) type, to direct destruction of HMGR. Hence, the general principles for the management of sterol and triterpene saponin biosynthesis are conserved across eukaryotes but can be controlled by divergent regulatory cues.

Evolution and sedimentology of a channel fill in the sandy braided South Saskatchewan River and its comparison to the deposits of an adjacent compound bar

The depositional stratigraphy of within-channel deposits in sandy braided rivers is dominated by a variety of barforms (both singular `unit' bars and complex `compound' bars), as well as the infill of individual channels (herein termed `channel fills'). The deposits of bars and channel fills define the key components of facies models for braided rivers and their within-channel heterogeneity, knowledge of which is important for reservoir characterization. However, few studies have sought to address the question of whether the deposits of bars and channel fills can be readily differentiated from each other. This paper presents the first quantitative study to achieve this aim, using aerial images of an evolving modern sandy braided river and geophysical imaging of its subsurface deposits. Aerial photographs taken between 2000 and 2004 document the abandonment and fill of a 1 3 km long, 80 m wide anabranch channel in the sandy braided South Saskatchewan River, Canada. Upstream river regulation traps the majority of very fine sediment and there is little clay (<1%) in the bed sediments. Channel abandonment was initiated by a series of unit bars that stalled and progressively blocked the anabranch entrance, together with dune deposition and stacking at the anabranch entrance and exit. Complete channel abandonment and subsequent fill of up to 3 m of sediment took approximately two years. Thirteen kilometres of ground-penetrating radar surveys, coupled with 18 cores, were obtained over the channel fill and an adjacent 750 m long, 400 m wide, compound bar, enabling a quantitative analysis of the channel and bar deposits. Results show that, in terms of grain-size trends, facies proportions and scale of deposits, there are only subtle differences between the channel fill and bar deposits which, therefore, renders them indistinguishable. Thus, it may be inappropriate to assign different geometric and sedimentological attributes to channel fill and bar facies in object-based models of sandy braided river alluvial architecture.

Valuing equity-linked death benefits in jump diffusion models

The paper is motivated by the valuation problem of guaranteed minimum death benefits in various equity-linked products. At the time of death, a benefit payment is due. It may depend not only on the price of a stock or stock fund at that time, but also on prior prices. The problem is to calculate the expected discounted value of the benefit payment. Because the distribution of the time of death can be approximated by a combination of exponential distributions, it suffices to solve the problem for an exponentially distributed time of death. The stock price process is assumed to be the exponential of a Brownian motion plus an independent compound Poisson process whose upward and downward jumps are modeled by combinations (or mixtures) of exponential distributions. Results for exponential stopping of a Lévy process are used to derive a series of closed-form formulas for call, put, lookback, and barrier options, dynamic fund protection, and dynamic withdrawal benefit with guarantee. We also discuss how barrier options can be used to model lapses and surrenders.

Extreme-value distributions and renormalization group

In the classical theorems of extreme value theory the limits of suitably rescaled maxima of sequences of independent, identically distributed random variables are studied. The vast majority of the literature on the subject deals with affine normalization. We argue that more general normalizations are natural from a mathematical and physical point of view and work them out. The problem is approached using the language of renormalization-group transformations in the space of probability densities. The limit distributions are fixed points of the transformation and the study of its differential around them allows a local analysis of the domains of attraction and the computation of finite-size corrections.

Univariate Parametric Survival Analysis using GS-distributions

The GS-distribution is a family of distributions that provide an accurate representation of any unimodal univariate continuous distribution. In this contribution we explore the utility of this family as a general model in survival analysis. We show that the survival function based on the GS-distribution is able to provide a model for univariate survival data and that appropriate estimates can be obtained. We develop some hypotheses tests that can be used for checking the underlying survival model and for comparing the survival of different groups.