Mirror me : the effect of the voting advice application smartvote on voting preferences and behavior of Swiss voters

Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) have become a central component of election campaigns worldwide. Through matching political preferences of voters to parties and candidates, the web application grants voters a look into their political mirror and reveals the most suitable political choices to them in terms of policy congruence. Both the dense and concise information on the electoral offer and the comparative nature of the application make VAAs an unprecedented information source for electoral decision making. In times where electoral choices are found to be highly individualized and driven by political issue positions, an ever increasing number of voters turn to VAAs before casting their ballots. With VAAs in high demand, the question of their effects on voters has become a pressing research topic. In various countries, survey research has been used to proclaim an impact of VAAs on electoral behavior, yet practically all studies fail to provide the scientific evidence that would allow for making such claims. In this thesis, I set out to systematically establish the causal link between VAA use and electoral behavior, using various data sources and appropriate statistical techniques in doing so. The focus lies on the Swiss VAA smartvote, introduced in the forefront of the 2003 Swiss federal elections and meanwhile an integral part of the national election campaign, smartvote has produced over a million voting recommendations in the last Swiss federal elections to an active electorate of two million, potentially guiding a vast amount of voters in their choices on the ballot. In order to determine the effect of the VAA on electoral behavior, I analyze both voting preferences and choice among Swiss voters during two consecutive election periods. First, I introduce statistical techniques to adequately examine VAA effects in observational studies and use them to demonstrate that voters who used smartvote prior to the 2007 Swiss federal elections were significantly more likely to swing vote in the elections than non- users. Second, I analyze preference voting during the same election and show that the smartvote voting recommendation inclines politically knowledgeable voters to modify their ballots and cast candidate specific preference votes. Third, to further tackle the indication that smartvote use affects the preference structure of voters, I employ an experimental research design to demonstrate that voters who use the application tend to strengthen their vote propensities for their most preferred party and adapt their overall party preferences in a way that they consider more than one party as eligible vote options after engaging with the application. Finally, vote choice is examined for the 2011 Swiss federal election, showing once more that the VAA initiated a change of party choice among voters. In sum, this thesis presents empirical evidence for the transformative effect of the Swiss VAA smartvote on the electoral behavior.

Accurate calculations of intermolecular interaction energies using explicitly correlated coupled cluster wave functions and a dispersion-weighted MP2 method.

Explicitly correlated coupled-cluster calculations of intermolecular interaction energies for the S22 benchmark set of Jurecka, Sponer, Cerny, and Hobza (Chem. Phys. Phys. Chem. 2006, 8, 1985) are presented. Results obtained with the recently proposed CCSD(T)-F12a method and augmented double-zeta basis sets are found to be in very close agreement with basis set extrapolated conventional CCSD(T) results. Furthermore, we propose a dispersion-weighted MP2 (DW-MP2) approximation that combines the good accuracy of MP2 for complexes with predominately electrostatic bonding and SCS-MP2 for dispersion-dominated ones. The MP2-F12 and SCS-MP2-F12 correlation energies are weighted by a switching function that depends on the relative HF and correlation contributions to the interaction energy. For the S22 set, this yields a mean absolute deviation of 0.2 kcal/mol from the CCSD(T)-F12a results. The method, which allows obtaining accurate results at low cost, is also tested for a number of dimers that are not in the training set.

Semi-supervised remote sensing image classification with cluster kernels

A semisupervised support vector machine is presented for the classification of remote sensing images. The method exploits the wealth of unlabeled samples for regularizing the training kernel representation locally by means of cluster kernels. The method learns a suitable kernel directly from the image and thus avoids assuming a priori signal relations by using a predefined kernel structure. Good results are obtained in image classification examples when few labeled samples are available. The method scales almost linearly with the number of unlabeled samples and provides out-of-sample predictions.

Can PR voting serve as a shelter against declining turnout ? : Evidence from Swiss municipal elections

To assess the impact of electoral systems on voting turnout, cross-national studies can be usefully complemented by studies of turnout in local elections in countries using more than one electoral system at that level. In this article, we look at data from a 1998 survey of Swiss municipalities to revisit the findings of our earlier study. This previous study, based on a 1988 survey, concluded, in particular, that there exists a positive relationship between proportional representation elections, party politicization, and voter turnout. The moment is opportune since, in the interval, turnout has markedly declined in Swiss municipalities, as elsewhere. By testing whether municipalities with proportional representation voting were more or less successful in stemming the decline, we learn more about the relationship among these three phenomena. We use the results for those Swiss municipalities which participated in both surveys as our primary source.

Percolation and cluster Monte Carlo dynamics for spin models

A general scheme for devising efficient cluster dynamics proposed in a previous paper [Phys. Rev. Lett. 72, 1541 (1994)] is extensively discussed. In particular, the strong connection among equilibrium properties of clusters and dynamic properties as the correlation time for magnetization is emphasized. The general scheme is applied to a number of frustrated spin models and the results discussed.

Invaded cluster dynamics for frustrated models

The invaded cluster (IC) dynamics introduced by Machta et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 75, 2792 (1995)] is extended to the fully frustrated Ising model on a square lattice. The properties of the dynamics that exhibits numerical evidence of self-organized criticality are studied. The fluctuations in the IC dynamics are shown to be intrinsic of the algorithm and the fluctuation-dissipation theorem is no longer valid. The relaxation time is found to be very short and does not present a critical size dependence.

Understanding Political Knowledge and Its Influence on Voting Preferences in the 2007 Federal Election

In this article we propose a model to explain how voters' perceptions of their ideological proximity to a party affect their propensity to vote for that party. We argue that political knowledge plays a crucial moderating role in the relationship between party proximity and voting propensity. It is necessary, however, to distinguish between institutional knowledge (information about the political system) and party knowledge (information about the parties' left-right positions). An analysis of survey data from the 2007 Swiss federal elections supports our main hypothesis that party knowledge enhances the link between party proximity and voting propensity. Institutional knowledge may have additional influence, but clear evidence for this effect was obtained only for propensities to vote for the Swiss People's Party (SVP). Overall, the impact of political knowledge was found to be substantial, even after controlling for the outstanding influence of party identification and other predictors of voting propensities

Variational localized-site cluster expansions. X. Dimerization in linear Heisenberg chains

Ground-state instability to bond alternation in long linear chains is considered from the point of view of valence-bond (VB) theory. This instability is viewed as the consequence of a long-range order (LRO) which is expected if the ground state is reasonably described in terms of the Kekulé states (with nearest-neighbor singlet pairing). It is argued that the bond alternation and associated LRO predicted by this simple, VB picture is retained for certain linear Heisenberg models; many-body VB calculations on spin s=1 / 2 and s=1 chains are carried out in a test of this argument.

Effect of a governmentally-led physical activity program on motor skills in young children attending child care centers: a cluster randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of a governmentally-led center based child care physical activity program (Youp'la Bouge) on child motor skills.Patients and methods: We conducted a single blinded cluster randomized controlled trial in 58 Swiss child care centers. Centers were randomly selected and 1:1 assigned to a control or intervention group. The intervention lasted from September 2009 to June 2010 and included training of the educators, adaptation of the child care built environment, parental involvement and daily physical activity. Motor skill was the primary outcome and body mass index (BMI), physical activity and quality of life secondary outcomes. The intervention implementation was also assessed. RESULTS: At baseline, 648 children present on the motor test day were included (age 3.3 +/- 0.6, BMI 16.3 +/- 1.3 kg/m2, 13.2% overweight, 49% girls) and 313 received the intervention. Relative to children in the control group (n = 201), children in the intervention group (n = 187) showed no significant increase in motor skills (delta of mean change (95% confidence interval: -0.2 (-0.8 to 0.3), p = 0.43) or in any of the secondary outcomes. Not all child care centers implemented all the intervention components. Within the intervention group, several predictors were positively associated with trial outcomes: 1) free-access to a movement space and parental information session for motor skills 2) highly motivated and trained educators for BMI 3) free-access to a movement space and purchase of mobile equipment for physical activity (all p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: This "real-life" physical activity program in child care centers confirms the complexity of implementing an intervention outside a study setting and identified potentially relevant predictors that could improve future programs.Trial registration: Trial registration number: clinical trials.gov NCT00967460 http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00967460.

Genetic variants of the FADS gene cluster and ELOVL gene family, colostrums LC-PUFA levels, breastfeeding, and child cognition

Introduction: Breastfeeding effects on cognition are attributed to long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (LC-PUFAs), but controversy persists. Genetic variation in fatty acid desaturase (FADS) and elongase (ELOVL) enzymes has been overlooked when studying the effects of LC-PUFAs supply on cognition. We aimed to: 1) to determine whether maternal genetic variants in the FADS cluster and ELOVL genes contribute to differences in LC-PUFA levels in colostrum; 2) to analyze whether these maternal variants are related to child cognition; and 3) to assess whether children's variants modify breastfeeding effects on cognition. Methods: Data come from two population-based birth cohorts (n = 400 mother-child pairs from INMA-Sabadell; and n = 340 children from INMA-Menorca). LC-PUFAs were measured in 270 colostrum samples from INMA-Sabadell. Tag SNPs were genotyped both in mothers and children (13 in the FADS cluster, 6 in ELOVL2, and 7 in ELOVL5). Child cognition was assessed at 14 mo and 4 y using the Bayley Scales of Infant Development and the McCarthy Scales of Children"s Abilities, respectively. Results: Children of mothers carrying genetic variants associated with lower FADS1 activity (regulating AA and EPA synthesis), higher FADS2 activity (regulating DHA synthesis), and with higher EPA/AA and DHA/AA ratios in colostrum showed a significant advantage in cognition at 14 mo (3.5 to 5.3 points). Not being breastfed conferred an 8- to 9-point disadvantage in cognition among children GG homozygote for rs174468 (low FADS1 activity) but not among those with the A allele. Moreover, not being breastfed resulted in a disadvantage in cognition (5 to 8 points) among children CC homozygote for rs2397142 (low ELOVL5 activity), but not among those carrying the G allele. Conclusion: Genetically determined maternal supplies of LC-PUFAs during pregnancy and lactation appear to be crucial for child cognition. Breastfeeding effects on cognition are modified by child genetic variation in fatty acid desaturase and elongase enzymes.