Will climate change drive alien invasive plants into areas of high protection value? An improved model-based regional assessment to prioritise the management of invasions.

Species distribution models (SDMs) studies suggest that, without control measures, the distribution of many alien invasive plant species (AIS) will increase under climate and land-use changes. Due to limited resources and large areas colonised by invaders, management and monitoring resources must be prioritised. Choices depend on the conservation value of the invaded areas and can be guided by SDM predictions. Here, we use a hierarchical SDM framework, complemented by connectivity analysis of AIS distributions, to evaluate current and future conflicts between AIS and high conservation value areas. We illustrate the framework with three Australian wattle (Acacia) species and patterns of conservation value in Northern Portugal. Results show that protected areas will likely suffer higher pressure from all three Acacia species under future climatic conditions. Due to this higher predicted conflict in protected areas, management might be prioritised for Acacia dealbata and Acacia melanoxylon. Connectivity of AIS suitable areas inside protected areas is currently lower than across the full study area, but this would change under future environmental conditions. Coupled SDM and connectivity analysis can support resource prioritisation for anticipation and monitoring of AIS impacts. However, further tests of this framework over a wide range of regions and organisms are still required before wide application.

Climate change impact on biodiversity in Switzerland: a review. Journal for Nature Conservation

A noticeable increase in mean temperature has already been observed in Switzerland and summer temperatures up to 4.8 K warmer are expected by 2090. This article reviews the observed impacts of climate change on biodiversity and consider some perspectives for the future at the national level. The following impacts are already evident for all considered taxonomic groups: elevation shifts of distribution toward mountain summits, spread of thermophilous species, colonisation by new species from warmer areas and phenological shifts. Additionally, in the driest areas, increasing droughts are affecting tree survival and fish species are suffering from warm temperatures in lowland regions. These observations are coherent with model projections, and future changes will probably follow the current trends. These changes will likely cause extinctions for alpine species (competition, loss of habitat) and lowland species (temperature or drought stress). In the very urbanised Swiss landscape, the high fragmentation of the natural ecosystems will hinder the dispersal of many species towards mountains. Moreover, disruptions in species interactions caused by individual migration rates or phenological shifts are likely to have consequences for biodiversity. Conversely, the inertia of the ecosystems (species longevity, restricted dispersal) and the local persistence of populations will probably result in lower extinction rates than expected with some models, at least in 21st century. It is thus very difficult to estimate the impact of climate change in terms of species extinctions. A greater recognition by society of the intrinsic value of biodiversity and of its importance for our existence will be essential to put in place effective mitigation measures and to safeguard a maximum number of native species.

Anti Bullying Procedures for Primary and Post Primary Schools - Appendix 2 Practical tips for building a positive school culture and climate

Anti Bullying Procedures for Primary and Post Primary Schools - Appendix 2 Practical tips for building a positive school culture and climate. Provided by the Department of Education and Skills, Ireland.

Study of the relationship between Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti egg and adult densities, dengue fever and climate in Mirassol, state of São Paulo, Brazil

The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between Aedes aegypti egg and adult density indices, dengue fever and climate in Mirassol, state of São Paulo, Brazil, between November 2004-November 2005. Weekly collections of adults and eggs were made using, respectively, manual aspirators and oviposition traps that produced four entomological indices (positivity and average of females and eggs). Weekly incidence coefficients were calculated based on dengue cases. Each week, the data obtained from entomological indices were related to each other, dengue, and climate variables. The first index to show an association with dengue transmission was the female average, followed by female positivity and egg average. Egg positivity did not show a relationship with risk for dengue, but was sensitive to identifying the presence of the vector, principally in dry seasons. The relationship between climatic factors, the vector and the disease found in this study can be widely employed in planning and undertaking dengue surveillance and control activities, but it is a tool that has not been considered by the authorities responsible for controlling the disease. In fact, this relationship permits the use of information about climate for early detection of epidemics and for establishing more effective prevention strategies than currently exist.

Association of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae) population density with climate variables in Montes Claros, an area of American visceral leishmaniasis transmission in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil

In the present paper, we evaluate the relationship between climate variables and population density of Lutzomyia longipalpis in Montes Claros, an area of active transmission of American visceral leishmaniasis (AVL) in Brazil. Entomological captures were performed in 10 selected districts of the city, between September 2002-August 2003. A total of 773 specimens of L. longipalpiswere captured in the period and the population density could be associated with local climate variables (cumulative rainfall, average temperature and relative humidity) through a mathematical linear model with a determination coefficient (Rsqr) of 0.752. Although based on an oversimplified statistical analysis, as far as the vector is concerned, this approach showed to be potentially useful as a starting point to guide control measures for AVL in Montes Claros.

Phylogenetic alpha and beta diversities of butterfly communities correlate with climate in the western Swiss Alps

The observation of non-random phylogenetic distribution of traits in communities provides evidence for niche-based community assembly. Environment may influence the phylogenetic structure of communities because traits determining how species respond to prevailing conditions can be phylogenetically conserved. In this study, we investigate the variation of butterfly species richness and of phylogenetic - and -diversities along temperature and plant species richness gradients. Our study indicates that butterfly richness is independently positively correlated to temperature and plant species richness in the study area. However, the variation of phylogenetic - and -diversities is only correlated to temperature. The significant phylogenetic clustering at high elevation suggests that cold temperature filters butterfly lineages, leading to communities mostly composed of closely related species adapted to those climatic conditions. These results suggest that in colder and more severe conditions at high elevations deterministic processes and not purely stochastic events drive the assemblage of butterfly communities.

Topics in public finance: social security and taxation

Summary The field of public finance focuses on the spending and taxing activities of governments and their influence on the allocation of resources and distribution of income. This work covers in three parts different topics related to public finance which are currently widely discussed in media and politics. The first two parts deal with issues on social security, which is in general one of the biggest spending shares of governments. The third part looks at the main income source of governments by analyzing the perceived value of tax competition. Part one deals with the current problem of increased early retirement by focusing on Switzerland as a special case. Early retirement is predominantly considered to be the result of incentives set by social security and the tax system. But the Swiss example demonstrates that the incidence of early retirement has dramatically increased even in the absence of institutional changes. We argue that the wealth effect also plays an important role in the retirement decision for middle and high income earners. An actuarially fair, but mandatory funded system with a relatively high replacement rate may thus contribute to a low labor market participation rate of elderly workers. We provide evidence using a unique dataset on individual retirement decisions in Swiss pension funds, allowing us to perfectly control for pension scheme details. Our findings suggest that affordability is a key determinant in the retirement decisions. The higher the accumulated pension capital, the earlier men, and to a smaller extent women, tend to leave the workforce. The fact that early retirement has become much more prevalent in the last 15 years is a further indicator of the importance of a wealth effect, as the maturing of the Swiss mandatory funded pension system over that period has led to an increase in the effective replacement rates for middle and high income earners. Part two covers the theoretical side of social security. Theories analyzing optimal social security benefits provide important qualitative results, by mainly using one general type of an economy. Economies are however very diverse concerning numerous aspects, one of the most important being the wealth level. This can lead to significant quantitative benefit differences that imply differences in replacement rates and levels of labor supply. We focus on several aspects related to this fact. In a within cohort social security model, we introduce disability insurance with an imperfect screening mechanism. We then vary the wealth level of the model economy and analyze how the optimal social security benefit structure or equivalently, the optimal replacement rates, changes depending on the wealth level of the economy, and if the introduction of disability insurance into a social security system is preferable for all economies. Second, the screening mechanism of disability insurance and the threshold level at which people are defined as disabled can differ. For economies with different wealth levels, we determine for different thresholds the screening level that maximizes social welfare. Finally, part three turns to the income of governments, by adding an element to the controversy on tax competition versus tax harmonization.2 Inter-jurisdictional tax competition can generate at least two potential benefits or costs: On a public level, tax competition may result in a lower or higher efficiency in the production of public services. But there is also a more private benefit in the form of an option for individuals to move to a community with a lower tax rate in the future. To explore the value citizens attach to tax competition we analyze a unique popular vote for a complete tax harmonization between communities in the third largest Swiss canton, Vaud. Although a majority of voters would have seemingly benefited from replacing the current tax rate by a revenue-neutral average tax rate, the proposal was rejected by a large margin. Our estimates suggest that the estimated combined perceived benefit from tax competition is in the range of 10%.

Applications of stochastic analysis in finance and statistical inference

First: A continuous-time version of Kyle's model (Kyle 1985), known as the Back's model (Back 1992), of asset pricing with asymmetric information, is studied. A larger class of price processes and of noise traders' processes are studied. The price process, as in Kyle's model, is allowed to depend on the path of the market order. The process of the noise traders' is an inhomogeneous Lévy process. Solutions are found by the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations. With the insider being risk-neutral, the price pressure is constant, and there is no equilibirium in the presence of jumps. If the insider is risk-averse, there is no equilibirium in the presence of either jumps or drifts. Also, it is analised when the release time is unknown. A general relation is established between the problem of finding an equilibrium and of enlargement of filtrations. Random announcement time is random is also considered. In such a case the market is not fully efficient and there exists equilibrium if the sensitivity of prices with respect to the global demand is time decreasing according with the distribution of the random time. Second: Power variations. it is considered, the asymptotic behavior of the power variation of processes of the form _integral_0^t u(s-)dS(s), where S_ is an alpha-stable process with index of stability 0&alpha&2 and the integral is an Itô integral. Stable convergence of corresponding fluctuations is established. These results provide statistical tools to infer the process u from discrete observations. Third: A bond market is studied where short rates r(t) evolve as an integral of g(t-s)sigma(s) with respect to W(ds), where g and sigma are deterministic and W is the stochastic Wiener measure. Processes of this type are particular cases of ambit processes. These processes are in general not of the semimartingale kind.

Early Cretaceous life, climate and anoxia

Early Cretaceous life and the environment were strongly influenced by the accelerated break up of Pangaea, which was associated with the formation of a multitude of rift basins, intensified spreading, and important volcanic activity on land and in the sea. These processes likely interacted with greenhouse conditions, and Early Cretaceous climate oscillated between "normal" greenhouse, predominantly arid conditions, and intensified greenhouse, predominantly humid conditions. Arid conditions were important during the latest Jurassic and early Berriasian, the late Barremian, and partly also during the late Aptian. Humid conditions were particularly intense and widespread during shorter episodes of environmental change (EECs): the Valanginian Weissert, the latest Hauterivian Faraoni, the latest Barremian earliest Aptian Taxy, the early Aptian Selli, the early late Aptian Fallot and the late Aptian-early Albian Paquier episodes. Arid conditions were associated with evaporation, low biogeochemical weathering rates, low nutrient fluxes, and partly stratified oceans, leading to oxygen depletion and enhanced preservation of laminated, organic-rich mud (LOM). Humid conditions enabled elevated biogeochemical weathering rates and nutrient fluxes, important runoff and the buildup of freshwater lids in proximal basins, intensified oceanic and atmospheric circulation, widespread upwelling and phosphogenesis, important primary productivity and enhanced preservation of LOM in expanded oxygen-minimum zones. The transition of arid to humid climates may have been associated with the net transfer of water to the continent owing to the infill of dried-out groundwater reservoirs in internally drained inland basins. This resulted in shorter-term sea-level fall, which was followed by sea-level rise. These sea-level changes and the influx of freshwater into the ocean may have influenced oxygen-isotope signatures. Climate change preceding and during the Early Cretaceous EECs may have been rapid, but in general, the EECs had a "pre"-history, during which the stage was set for environmental change. Negative feedback on the climate through increased marine LOM preservation was unlikely, because of the low overall organic-carbon accumulation rates during these episodes. Life and climate co-evolved during the Early Cretaceous. Arid conditions may have affected continental life, such as across the Tithonian/Berriasian boundary. Humid conditions and the corresponding tendency to develop dys- to anaerobic conditions in deeper ocean waters led to phases of accelerated extinction in oceans, but may have led to more luxuriant vegetation cover on continents, such as during the Valanginian, to the benefit of herbivores. During Early Cretaceous EECs, reef systems and carbonate platforms in general were particularly vulnerable. They were the first to disappear and the last to recover, often only after several million years. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Melanin-based colour polymorphism responding to climate change.

Climate warming leads to a decrease in biodiversity. Organisms can deal with the new prevailing environmental conditions by one of two main routes, namely evolving new genetic adaptations or through phenotypic plasticity to modify behaviour and physiology. Melanin-based colouration has important functions in animals including a role in camouflage and thermoregulation, protection against UV-radiation and pathogens and, furthermore, genes involved in melanogenesis can pleiotropically regulate behaviour and physiology. In this article, I review the current evidence that differently coloured individuals are differentially sensitive to climate change. Predicting which of dark or pale colour variants (or morphs) will be more penalized by climate change will depend on the adaptive function of melanism in each species as well as how the degree of colouration covaries with behaviour and physiology. For instance, because climate change leads to a rise in temperature and UV-radiation and dark colouration plays a role in UV-protection, dark individuals may be less affected from global warming, if this phenomenon implies more solar radiation particularly in habitats of pale individuals. In contrast, as desertification increases, pale colouration may expand in those regions, whereas dark colourations may expand in regions where humidity is predicted to increase. Dark colouration may be also indirectly selected by climate warming because genes involved in the production of melanin pigments confer resistance to a number of stressful factors including those associated with climate warming. Furthermore, darker melanic individuals are commonly more aggressive than paler conspecifics, and hence they may better cope with competitive interactions due to invading species that expand their range in northern latitudes and at higher altitudes. To conclude, melanin may be a major component involved in adaptation to climate warming, and hence in animal populations melanin-based colouration is likely to change as an evolutionary or plastic response to climate warming.

Adapting global conservation strategies to climate change at the European scale: the otter as a flagship species

Climate change has created the need for new strategies in conservation planning that account for the dynamics of factors threatening endangered species. Here we assessed climate change threat to the European otter, a flagship species for freshwater ecosystems, considering how current conservation areas will perform in preserving the species in a climatically changed future. We used an ensemble forecasting approach considering six modelling techniques applied to eleven subsets of otter occurrences across Europe. We performed a pseudo-independent and an internal evaluation of predictions. Future projections of species distribution were made considering the A2 and B2 scenarios for 2080 across three climate models: CCCMA-CGCM2, CSIRO-MK2 and HCCPR HAD-CM3. The current and the predicted otter distributions were used to identify priority areas for the conservation of the species, and overlapped to existing network of protected areas. Our projections show that climate change may profoundly reshuffle the otter's potential distribution in Europe, with important differences between the two scenarios we considered. Overall, the priority areas for conservation of the otter in Europe appear to be unevenly covered by the existing network of protected areas, with the current conservation efforts being insufficient in most cases. For a better conservation, the existing protected areas should be integrated within a more general conservation and management strategy incorporating climate change projections. Due to the important role that the otter plays for freshwater habitats, our study further highlights the potential sensitivity of freshwater habitats in Europe to climate change.

Solidarity finance through community development banks as a strategy for reshaping local economies: lessons from Banco Palmas

The purpose of this paper is to reflect on the possibilities and challenges of Community Development Banks (CDBs) as an innovative method of socioeconomic management of microcredit for poor populations. To this end, we will discuss the case of Banco Palmas in Conjunto Palmeiras in the city of Fortaleza, in the northeastern state of Ceará, as an empirical case study. The analyses presented here are based on information obtained from Banco Palmas between late 2011 and early 2012. In addition, previous studies by other researchers on the bank and other studies on CDBs were important. The primary data collected at Banco Palmas came from documents made available by the bank, such as reports and mappings. The analyses describe some of the characteristics of the granting of microcredit and allow one to situate it in the universe of microfinance and solidarity finance. They also show the significant growth of local consumption, mostly through the use of the Palmas social currency. The Banco Palmas experience, aside from influencing national public policies of solidarity finance, initiated a CDBs network that encourages the replication of these experiences throughout the country.