Capital flows to Latin America: first quarter 2004

Includes bibliography

Capital flows to Latin America: 2005 highlights

Includes bibliography

A incorporação de empréstimos ingleses no Português do Brasil: processos de adaptação ortográfica

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Capital flows to Latin America: recent developments

The external environment has deteriorated sharply as a result of the spiraling financial turmoil, and has led to a weakening in commodity prices and fears of a worldwide recession. Latin America and the Caribbean's fastest expansion in 40 years may be threatened as the global credit crunch makes financing scarce and squeezes demand for the region's commodities. This time around the region is better positioned to weather the crisis than in the past, given improvements in macroeconomic and financial policies as well as a reduced net dependency on external capital inflows. However, Latin American markets are feeling the effects of the crisis through a slowdown in capital inflows, large declines in stock price indexes, significant currency adjustments and an increase in debt spreads. Volatility has soared, with the closely watched Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index moving to an all-time high of 70.33 on October 17, indicating that fear (rather than greed) has been ruling the markets.After reaching record lows in May 2007, emerging markets bond spreads are now above pre-Asian crisis levels. The JPMorgan EMBI+ Latin American composite widened by 146 basis points in the third quarter, with spreads reaching 448 basis points at the end of September. Spreads have widened sharply in recent weeks as foreign investors cut back regional exposure for the safety of U.S. Treasuries. The ongoing lack of liquidity and subsequent liquidation of assets is leading to a collapse in asset prices and a sharp widening in spreads. Daily spreads in October have risen to levels not seen since December 2002, making it much more difficult for governments that need financing to get it. Risk premiums for Latin corporates and sovereigns have risen substantially, but have remained well below U.S. junk (high-yield) bonds. Latin corporates are facing a steep rise in foreign exchange borrowing costs (although less than firms in other emerging markets), which raises concerns that refinancing risks will climb.So far, emerging markets vulnerabilities have been more focused on corporates, as sovereigns have improved public debt dynamics and countries' financing needs are under control. Market performance has been driven by the rapid deterioration of emerging markets bank and corporate market, as well as ongoing losses in emerging markets equities. From January to September 2008, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Latin American Index lost almost 28%, while the Emerging Markets Index lost 37% and the G-7 Index lost 24%. While in 2007 the Latin America component gained 47%, almost nine times as much as the MSCI-G7 index for developed markets, since mid-September 2008 stocks in Latin America have been doing worse than stocks in developed countries, as concerns about access to credit and the adverse impact of sharp falls in commodity prices and in local currencies contribute to increased risk aversion and to outflows of capital. Many governments in the region have used revenue from the commodity boom to pay down debt and build reserves. Now, facing a global financial crisis and the threat of recession in developed countries, the biggest question for Latin America is how long and deep this cyclical downturn will be, and how much it is going to reduce commodity prices. Prices for commodities such as soy, gold, copper and oil, which helped fund the region's boom, have fallen 28% since their July 2 high, according to the RJ/CRB Commodity Price Index. According to Morgan Stanley (in a September 29 report), should prices return to their 10-year average, Latin America's balanced budgets would quickly revert to a deficit of 4.1% of GDP. As risk aversion increases, investors are rapidly pulling out massive amounts of money, creating problems for local markets and banks. There is an ongoing shortage of dollars (as investors liquidate assets in Latin American markets), and as currencies depreciate, inflation concerns increase despite the global slowdown. In Brazil and Mexico, central banks deployed billions of dollars of reserves to stem steep currency declines, as companies in these countries, believing their local currencies would continue to strengthen against the U.S. dollar, took debts in dollars. Some companies also made bets using currency derivatives that have led to losses in the billions of dollars. Dramatic currency swings have caused heavy losses for many companies, from Mexico's cement giant Cemex SAB to the Brazilian conglomerate Grupo Votorantim. Mexico's third-largest retailer, Controladora Comercial Mexicana, declared bankruptcy recently after reporting huge losses related to exchange rate bets. As concerns about corporate exposure to dollar-denominated derivatives increases, yields on bonds issued by many of Brazil's and Mexico's leading companies have started to rise, sharply raising the cost of issuing new debt. Latin American external debt issuance came to a halt in the third quarter of 2008, totaling only US$ 690 million. The cost of obtaining loans for capital expenditures, M&A and debt refinancing is also rising substantially for Latin American corporates amid contagion from the U.S. financial crisis. According to bankers, a protracted trend of shortening tenors and widening spreads has intensified in the past few weeks, indicating that bank lending is quickly following the way of bonds and equity. Finally, money transfers from Latin American migrants are expected to decline for the first time this decade, as a result of economic downturns in the U.S. and Spain, inflation and a weaker dollar. The Mexican Central Bank announced that money transfers from Mexicans living in the U.S. dropped a record 12.2% in August. In 2008, migrants from the region will send some 1.7% less in remittances year-on-year when adjusted for inflation, according to the IADB, compounding the adverse effects of the deepening financial turmoil.

The employment situation in Latin America and the Caribbean: Labour productivity and distribution issues

Although the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean grew more slowly in 2011 than in 2010, there were some improvements on the employment front. Workers benefited from the region’s satisfactory economic performance in an increasingly complex international setting. The unemployment rate fell from 7.3% in 2010 to 6.7% in 2011 thanks to a halfpercentage- point gain in the urban employment rate. Both rates are at levels that have not been seen for a long time. The proportion of formal jobs with social benefits rose as well, and underemployment declined. The average wage and the minimum wage both increased in real terms, albeit only moderately. Economic performance and the employment situation varied widely among the subregions. The unemployment rate dropped by 0.6 percentage points in South America but 0.4 percentage points in the countries of the northern part of Latin America. In the countries of the Caribbean, the employment rate was up by 0.2 percentage points. The data show that substantial labour market gaps and serious labour-market insertion issues remain. This is especially the case for women and young people, for whom unemployment rates and other labour indicators are still unfavourable. The second part of this report looks at whether the fruits of economic growth and rising productivity have been distributed equitably between workers and companies. Between 2002 and 2008 (the most recent expansionary economic cycle), wages as a percentage of GDP fell in 13 of the 21 countries of the region for which data are available and rose in just 8. This points to redistribution that is unfavourable to workers, which is worrying in a region which already has the most unequal distribution of income in the world. Underlying this trend is the fact that, worldwide, wages have grown less than productivity. Beyond the ethical dimension of this issue, it jeopardizes the social and economic sustainability of growth. For example, one of the root causes of the recent financial crisis was that households in the United States responded to declining wage income by borrowing more to pay for consumption and housing. This turned out to be unsustainable in the long run. Over time, it undermines the labour market’s contribution to the efficient allocation of resources and its distributive function, too, with negative consequences for democratic governance. Among the triggers of this distributive worsening most often cited in the global debate are market deregulation and its impact on financial globalization, technological change that favours capital over labour, and the weakening of labour institutions. What is needed here is a public policy effort to help keep wage increases from lagging behind increases in productivity. Some countries of the region, especially in South America, saw promising developments during the second half of the 2000s in the form of a positive trend reversal in wages as a percentage of GDP. One example is Brazil, where a minimum wage policy tailored to the dynamics of the domestic market is considered to be one of the factors behind an upturn in the wage share of GDP. The region needs to grow more and better. Productivity must grow at a steady pace, to serve as the basis for sustained improvements in the well-being of the populace and to narrow the gap between the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean and the more advanced economies. And inequality must be decreased; this could be achieved by closing the productivity gap between upgraded companies and the many firms whose productivity is low. As set out in this report, the region made some progress between 2002 and 2010, with labour productivity rising at the rate of 1.5% a year. But this progress falls short of that seen in other regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa (2.1%) and, above all, East Asia (8.3%, not counting Japan and the Republic of Korea). Moreover, in many of the countries of the region these gains have not been distributed equitably. Therein lies a dual challenge that must be addressed: continue to increase productivity while enhancing the mechanisms for distributing gains in a way that will encourage investment and boost worker and household income. The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and the International Labour Organization (ILO) estimate that the pace of economic growth in the region will be slightly slower in 2012 than in 2011, in a global economic scenario marked by the cooling of several of the main economic engines and a high degree of uncertainty concerning, above all, prospects for the euro zone. The region is expected to continue to hold up well to this worsening scenario, thanks to policies that leveraged more favourable conditions in the past. This will be felt in the labour markets, as well, so expectations are that unemployment will edge down by as much as two tenths of a decimal point.

Política fiscal no Brasil, 1994-2008

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Entre as urnas e as togas: Justiça Eleitoral e competição política no Pará (1982/1986)

Neste trabalho, analisamos a governança eleitoral exercida pelo TRE/PA, especialmente o seu nível de isenção no contencioso eleitoral (rule adjudication) concernente aos pleitos majoritários (governador e senador) de 1982 e 1986, com retrospecto no período de 1945 a 1965 - o primeiro momento de atuação contínua e prolongada da Justiça Eleitoral num contexto democrático, isto é, antes do Golpe Militar de 1964. Partimos do pressuposto segundo o qual, dada a peculiar composição da Justiça Eleitoral, que funciona tomando de empréstimo magistrados da justiça comum - sendo os TRE‟s compostos, em sua maioria, por membros dos tribunais de justiça estaduais -, somado ao padrão de relacionamento executivo-judiciário estadual, em que, historicamente, constatamos uma hipertrofia do primeiro em relação ao segundo poder, estimamos existir uma grande probabilidade de favorecimento do TRE aos candidatos majoritários do partido governamental. Esta circunstância seria agravada no período histórico em tela, em vista da enorme ingerência do executivo estadual sobre o respectivo poder judiciário, verificada anteriormente à promulgação da Constituição Federal de 1988. Com efeito, encontramos fortes indícios a corroborar esta hipótese no período 1945-65, mas não encontramos evidências suficientes para sustentá-la por ocasião dos pleitos de 1982 e 1986. No pleito de 1982, o TRE manifestou razoável grau de isenção e coerência em seus acórdãos, exceto em dois processos semelhantes: um deles provocado pelo PDS e o outro pelo PMDB, ambos envolvendo um número expressivo de votos. O PMDB, partido então patrocinado pelo governador, venceu a lide, enquanto o PDS, o partido oposicionista, foi derrotado. No tocante, ao pleito de 1986, observamos uma disposição da Corte para denegar os pedidos propostos pelas legendas oposicionistas, sobretudo o PT e o extinto PMB, ainda que não tenha sido possível demonstrar um claro favorecimento ao partido governamental.

Fiscal policy contradiction: a perspective on Brazil and Mexico

The aim of this paper is to discuss the quality of fiscal policy in Brazil and Mexico and investigate whether fiscal policy influence is favorable to reduce the unemployment rate. Public spending, which has a positive effect on the level of employment when results in additional aggregate demand, may cause a negative effect on employment, if its financing depends on persistent high interest rates. Brazil and Mexico have engaged in a long effort to control public spending and to reduce the public deficit to zero. Does this policy bring a positive result to the economic activity no matter how actual public deficit has been financed? We select variables related to public budget as public sector borrowing requirements, taxes, public debt and others to form a data base. The fiscal institutional arrangement and the data allow us to evaluate the fiscal policy as a who leand to discuss the importance of credibility and reputation of the government.

Metalinguagem semiótica: empréstimos e redefinições

This paper deals with the issue of terminology and conceptualization in the construction of the semiotic metalanguage. The starting point of this discussion is the scientific thought of C. S. Pierce, R. Bastide and É. Benveniste, who understand that the creation of a new science requires a new and precise terminology. This position is relativized and magnified by the point of view of A. J. Greimas, who defends the centrality of the conceptualization rather than the formalization and the terminological production. Thus, this study proposes and analyses two types of metalinguistic elaboration based on the dialogue with previous theories and disciplines: the borrowing and the redefining.

Testes oftálmicos, biometria ocular e cálculo do poder dióptrico da lente em corujas

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

THE FLUTE MUSIC OF PAUL DESENNE: A COMPARATIVE ANALYTICAL STUDY OF REPRESENTATIVE WORKS

The significance of the works by Venezuelan-born composer Paul Desenne lies in his unique compositional style that incorporates elements of Latin American folk, pop, and traditional music within the framework of the Western European tradition. His works, though easily classified as art music, nevertheless gain much of their emotional and referential meaning through this rich borrowing. This document focuses on three of Desenne’s flute pieces: the Solo Flute Sonata (2001), Gurrufío for flute orchestra (1997), and Guasa Macabra for flute and clarinet (2003). It provides an analysis of the three works, examining formal, structural, motivic, and rhythmic aspects. Scores and interviews with the composer have been employed as primary sources. Bibliographical material closely related to his music and other secondary sources support this analytical approach. This document also provides an introduction and stylistic discussion of Desenne’s other pieces that incorporate the flute. Chapter one consists of an introduction to Desenne’s life and general considerations of his musical style. Each of the following three chapters focuses on one the three aforementioned flute works, including information about the composition and premiere of each piece as well as analysis and an examination of its incorporation of traditional folk elements. The final chapter presents an introduction to and stylistic discussion of the other flute pieces by this composer. This study intends to provide a basic understanding of Desenne’s flute music, including general characteristics of his musical style, paving the way for further investigation of Desenne’s music, and flute music in particular.

Finanza Imprenditoriale: Teoria del Portafoglio e Costo del Capitale

This thesis focuses on the limits that may prevent an entrepreneur from maximizing her value, and the benefits of diversification in reducing her cost of capital. After reviewing all relevant literature dealing with the differences between traditional corporate finance and entrepreneurial finance, we focus on the biases occurring when traditional finance techniques are applied to the entrepreneurial context. In particular, using the portfolio theory framework, we determine the degree of under-diversification of entrepreneurs. Borrowing the methodology developed by Kerins et al. (2004), we test a model for the cost of capital according to the firms' industry and the entrepreneur's wealth commitment to the firm. This model takes three market inputs (standard deviation of market returns, expected return of the market, and risk-free rate), and two firm-specific inputs (standard deviation of the firm returns and correlation between firm and market returns) as parameters, and returns an appropriate cost of capital as an output. We determine the expected market return and the risk-free rate according to the huge literature on the market risk premium. As for the market return volatility, it is estimated considering a GARCH specification for the market index returns. Furthermore, we assume that the firm-specific inputs can be obtained considering new-listed firms similar in risk to the firm we are evaluating. After we form a database including all the data needed for our analysis, we perform an empirical investigation to understand how much of the firm's total risk depends on market risk, and which explanatory variables can explain it. Our results show that cost of capital declines as the level of entrepreneur's commitment decreases. Therefore, maximizing the value for the entrepreneur depends on the fraction of entrepreneur's wealth invested in the firm and the fraction she sells to outside investors. These results are interesting both for entrepreneurs and policy makers: the former can benefit from an unbiased model for their valuation; the latter can obtain some guidelines to overcome the recent financial market crisis.

Multiple testing in spatial epidemiology: a Bayesian approach

In this work we aim to propose a new approach for preliminary epidemiological studies on Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMR) collected in many spatial regions. A preliminary study on SMRs aims to formulate hypotheses to be investigated via individual epidemiological studies that avoid bias carried on by aggregated analyses. Starting from collecting disease counts and calculating expected disease counts by means of reference population disease rates, in each area an SMR is derived as the MLE under the Poisson assumption on each observation. Such estimators have high standard errors in small areas, i.e. where the expected count is low either because of the low population underlying the area or the rarity of the disease under study. Disease mapping models and other techniques for screening disease rates among the map aiming to detect anomalies and possible high-risk areas have been proposed in literature according to the classic and the Bayesian paradigm. Our proposal is approaching this issue by a decision-oriented method, which focus on multiple testing control, without however leaving the preliminary study perspective that an analysis on SMR indicators is asked to. We implement the control of the FDR, a quantity largely used to address multiple comparisons problems in the eld of microarray data analysis but which is not usually employed in disease mapping. Controlling the FDR means providing an estimate of the FDR for a set of rejected null hypotheses. The small areas issue arises diculties in applying traditional methods for FDR estimation, that are usually based only on the p-values knowledge (Benjamini and Hochberg, 1995; Storey, 2003). Tests evaluated by a traditional p-value provide weak power in small areas, where the expected number of disease cases is small. Moreover tests cannot be assumed as independent when spatial correlation between SMRs is expected, neither they are identical distributed when population underlying the map is heterogeneous. The Bayesian paradigm oers a way to overcome the inappropriateness of p-values based methods. Another peculiarity of the present work is to propose a hierarchical full Bayesian model for FDR estimation in testing many null hypothesis of absence of risk.We will use concepts of Bayesian models for disease mapping, referring in particular to the Besag York and Mollié model (1991) often used in practice for its exible prior assumption on the risks distribution across regions. The borrowing of strength between prior and likelihood typical of a hierarchical Bayesian model takes the advantage of evaluating a singular test (i.e. a test in a singular area) by means of all observations in the map under study, rather than just by means of the singular observation. This allows to improve the power test in small areas and addressing more appropriately the spatial correlation issue that suggests that relative risks are closer in spatially contiguous regions. The proposed model aims to estimate the FDR by means of the MCMC estimated posterior probabilities b i's of the null hypothesis (absence of risk) for each area. An estimate of the expected FDR conditional on data (\FDR) can be calculated in any set of b i's relative to areas declared at high-risk (where thenull hypothesis is rejected) by averaging the b i's themselves. The\FDR can be used to provide an easy decision rule for selecting high-risk areas, i.e. selecting as many as possible areas such that the\FDR is non-lower than a prexed value; we call them\FDR based decision (or selection) rules. The sensitivity and specicity of such rule depend on the accuracy of the FDR estimate, the over-estimation of FDR causing a loss of power and the under-estimation of FDR producing a loss of specicity. Moreover, our model has the interesting feature of still being able to provide an estimate of relative risk values as in the Besag York and Mollié model (1991). A simulation study to evaluate the model performance in FDR estimation accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the decision rule, and goodness of estimation of relative risks, was set up. We chose a real map from which we generated several spatial scenarios whose counts of disease vary according to the spatial correlation degree, the size areas, the number of areas where the null hypothesis is true and the risk level in the latter areas. In summarizing simulation results we will always consider the FDR estimation in sets constituted by all b i's selected lower than a threshold t. We will show graphs of the\FDR and the true FDR (known by simulation) plotted against a threshold t to assess the FDR estimation. Varying the threshold we can learn which FDR values can be accurately estimated by the practitioner willing to apply the model (by the closeness between\FDR and true FDR). By plotting the calculated sensitivity and specicity (both known by simulation) vs the\FDR we can check the sensitivity and specicity of the corresponding\FDR based decision rules. For investigating the over-smoothing level of relative risk estimates we will compare box-plots of such estimates in high-risk areas (known by simulation), obtained by both our model and the classic Besag York Mollié model. All the summary tools are worked out for all simulated scenarios (in total 54 scenarios). Results show that FDR is well estimated (in the worst case we get an overestimation, hence a conservative FDR control) in small areas, low risk levels and spatially correlated risks scenarios, that are our primary aims. In such scenarios we have good estimates of the FDR for all values less or equal than 0.10. The sensitivity of\FDR based decision rules is generally low but specicity is high. In such scenario the use of\FDR = 0:05 or\FDR = 0:10 based selection rule can be suggested. In cases where the number of true alternative hypotheses (number of true high-risk areas) is small, also FDR = 0:15 values are well estimated, and \FDR = 0:15 based decision rules gains power maintaining an high specicity. On the other hand, in non-small areas and non-small risk level scenarios the FDR is under-estimated unless for very small values of it (much lower than 0.05); this resulting in a loss of specicity of a\FDR = 0:05 based decision rule. In such scenario\FDR = 0:05 or, even worse,\FDR = 0:1 based decision rules cannot be suggested because the true FDR is actually much higher. As regards the relative risk estimation, our model achieves almost the same results of the classic Besag York Molliè model. For this reason, our model is interesting for its ability to perform both the estimation of relative risk values and the FDR control, except for non-small areas and large risk level scenarios. A case of study is nally presented to show how the method can be used in epidemiology.

Modellazione Tridimensionale del Processo di Combustione di un Razzo a Propellente Solido

La regolazione dei sistemi di propulsione a razzo a propellente solido (Solid Rocket Motors) ha da sempre rappresentato una delle principali problematiche legate a questa tipologia di motori. L’assenza di un qualsiasi genere di controllo diretto del processo di combustione del grano solido, fa si che la previsione della balistica interna rappresenti da sempre il principale strumento utilizzato sia per definire in fase di progetto la configurazione ottimale del motore, sia per analizzare le eventuali anomalie riscontrate in ambito sperimentale. Variazioni locali nella struttura del propellente, difettosità interne o eterogeneità nelle condizioni di camera posso dare origine ad alterazioni del rateo locale di combustione del propellente e conseguentemente a profili di pressione e di spinta sperimentali differenti da quelli previsti per via teorica. Molti dei codici attualmente in uso offrono un approccio piuttosto semplificato al problema, facendo per lo più ricorso a fattori correttivi (fattori HUMP) semi-empirici, senza tuttavia andare a ricostruire in maniera più realistica le eterogeneità di prestazione del propellente. Questo lavoro di tesi vuole dunque proporre un nuovo approccio alla previsione numerica delle prestazioni dei sistemi a propellente solido, attraverso la realizzazione di un nuovo codice di simulazione, denominato ROBOOST (ROcket BOOst Simulation Tool). Richiamando concetti e techiche proprie della Computer Grafica, questo nuovo codice è in grado di ricostruire in processo di regressione superficiale del grano in maniera puntuale, attraverso l’utilizzo di una mesh triangolare mobile. Variazioni locali del rateo di combustione posso quindi essere facilmente riprodotte ed il calcolo della balistica interna avviene mediante l’accoppiamento di un modello 0D non-stazionario e di uno 1D quasi-stazionario. L’attività è stata svolta in collaborazione con l’azienda Avio Space Division e il nuovo codice è stato implementato con successo sul motore Zefiro 9.

Borrow or buy? cost-effective delivery of monographs

In an effort to reduce Interlibrary borrowing activity, while enhancing the Library collection, the Bertrand Library has initiated a program to purchase current monographs requested through ILL by Bucknell University students and faculty. The results have been a successful reduction in ILL workload, and a cost-effective means of document delivery as measured by average delivery time, cost-per-title, processing costs, and circulation statistics. This procedure reflects an overall change in our philosophy concerning document access and delivery, which led to the reorganization of ILL services and staff in the Bertrand Library.