The credit ratings game

The collapse of so many AAA-rated structured finance products in 2007-2008has brought renewed attention to the causes of ratings failures and the conflicts of interestin the Credit Ratings Industry. We provide a model of competition among Credit RatingsAgencies (CRAs) in which there are three possible sources of conflicts: 1) the CRA conflictof interest of understating credit risk to attract more business; 2) the ability of issuersto purchase only the most favorable ratings; and 3) the trusting nature of some investorclienteles who may take ratings at face value. We show that when combined, these give riseto three fundamental equilibrium distortions. First, competition among CRAs can reducemarket efficiency, as competition facilitates ratings shopping by issuers. Second, CRAs aremore prone to inflate ratings in boom times, when there are more trusting investors, andwhen the risks of failure which could damage CRA reputation are lower. Third, the industrypractice of tranching of structured products distorts market efficiency as its role is to deceivetrusting investors. We argue that regulatory intervention requiring: i) upfront paymentsfor rating services (before CRAs propose a rating to the issuer), ii) mandatory disclosure ofany rating produced by CRAs, and iii) oversight of ratings methodology can substantiallymitigate ratings inflation and promote efficiency.

Oil and economy in Mexico, 1900-1930s

This brief essay reviews the macro framework of oil and economy in Mexicoin the early days of the oil industry, from 1900 to 1938. The first sectiondisplays the figures of production at the world level and shows how Mexicobecome a major oil producer in the 1920s. The second section look at theMexican economy of the first third of the century followed by a thirdsection on the importance of the oil sector in terms of trade and fiscalincome. The last section reviews the literature and the outlooks of thecontemporaries over the development of the oil industry in the early partof the 20th century. The paper will be of use for those producing in depthanalyses of the Mexican oil industry in this period.

Social spending and demographics: The role of public policies in the intergenerational redistribution of income. Empirical evidence from Spain and Catalonia

The demographic shift underway in Southern Europe requires a revision of some of thefundamental principles of the traditional welfare state. We analyze the evolution of several aspects of welfare and social expenditure over the last two decades. We find that in the context of the present demographic changes and real estate boom current social and pension policy leads to a new distribution of benefits and burdens which is highly intergenerationally unequal. We argue for a revised definition of public policy based on Musgrave's proposition as a possible rule for an intergenerationally fair distribution.

Maladies cardiovasculaires: une cible de prévention pour contrecarrer les effets de l'évolution démographique [Cardiovascular diseases: a target for prevention to thwart the effects of population aging]

The prevalence of cardiovascular diseases is high in the old age. These conditions have a negative impact on the quality of life and are associated with a high risk of disability. A marked increase in the number of affected individuals is likely, in coming decades, with population aging. Primary cardiovascular prevention, but also an early recognition of subclinical heart diseases and secondary and tertiary prevention will be of up most importance for individuals (quality of life) and for societies (burden of functional impairments) as the baby-boom generation reaches retirement age.

Reconsolidation of the soil surface after tillage discontinuity, with and without cultivation, related to erosion and its prediction with RUSLE

Site-specific regression coefficient values are essential for erosion prediction with empirical models. With the objective to investigate the surface-soilconsolidation factor, Cf, linked to the RUSLE's prior-land-use subfactor, PLU, an erosion experiment using simulated rainfall on a 0.075 m m-1 slope, sandy loam Paleudult soil, was conducted at the Agriculture Experimental Station of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (EEA/UFRGS), in Eldorado do Sul, State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. Firstly, a row-cropped area was excluded from cultivation (March 1995), the existing crop residue removed from the field, and the soil kept clean-tilled the rest of the year (to get a degraded soil condition for the intended purpose of this research). The soil was then conventional-tilled for the last time (except for a standard plot which was kept continuously cleantilled for comparison purposes), in January 1996, and the following treatments were established and evaluated for soil reconsolidation and soil erosion until May 1998, on duplicated 3.5 x 11.0 m erosion plots: (a) fresh-tilled soil, continuously in clean-tilled fallow (unit plot); (b) reconsolidating soil without cultivation; and (c) reconsolidating soil with cultivation (a crop sequence of three corn- and two black oats cycles, continuously in no-till, removing the crop residues after each harvest for rainfall application and redistributing them on the site after that). Simulated rainfall was applied with a Swanson's type, rotating-boom rainfall simulator, at 63.5 mm h-1 intensity and 90 min duration, six times during the two-and-half years of experimental period (at the beginning of the study and after each crop harvest, with the soil in the unit plot being retilled before each rainfall test). The soil-surface-consolidation factor, Cf, was calculated by dividing soil loss values from the reconsolidating soil treatments by the average value from the fresh-tilled soil treatment (unit plot). Non-linear regression was used to fit the Cf = e b.t model through the calculated Cf-data, where t is time in days since last tillage. Values for b were -0.0020 for the reconsolidating soil without cultivation and -0.0031 for the one with cultivation, yielding Cf-values equal to 0.16 and 0.06, respectively, after two-and-half years of tillage discontinuation, compared to 1.0 for fresh-tilled soil. These estimated Cf-values correspond, respectively, to soil loss reductions of 84 and 94 %, in relation to soil loss from the fresh-tilled soil, showing that the soil surface reconsolidated intenser with cultivation than without it. Two distinct treatmentinherent soil surface conditions probably influenced the rapid decay-rate of Cf values in this study, but, as a matter of a fact, they were part of the real environmental field conditions. Cf-factor curves presented in this paper are therefore useful for predicting erosion with RUSLE, but their application is restricted to situations where both soil type and particular soil surface condition are similar to the ones investigate in this study.

Surface and subsurface decomposition of a desiccated grass pasture biomass related to erosion and its prediction with RUSLE

Erosion is deleterious because it reduces the soil's productivity capacity for growing crops and causes sedimentation and water pollution problems. Surface and buried crop residue, as well as live and dead plant roots, play an important role in erosion control. An efficient way to assess the effectiveness of such materials in erosion reduction is by means of decomposition constants as used within the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation - RUSLE's prior-land-use subfactor - PLU. This was investigated using simulated rainfall on a 0.12 m m-1 slope, sandy loam Paleudult soil, at the Agriculture Experimental Station of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, in Eldorado do Sul, State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The study area had been covered by native grass pasture for about fifteen years. By the middle of March 1996, the sod was mechanically mowed and the crop residue removed from the field. Late in April 1996, the sod was chemically desiccated with herbicide and, about one month later, the following treatments were established and evaluated for sod biomass decomposition and soil erosion, from June 1996 to May 1998, on duplicated 3.5 x 11.0 m erosion plots: (a) and (b) soil without tillage, with surface residue and dead roots; (c) soil without tillage, with dead roots only; (d) soil tilled conventionally every two-and-half months, with dead roots plus incorporated residue; and (e) soil tilled conventionally every six months, with dead roots plus incorporated residue. Simulated rainfall was applied with a rotating-boom rainfall simulator, at an intensity of 63.5 mm h-1 for 90 min, eight to nine times during the experimental period (about every two-and-half months). Surface and subsurface sod biomass amounts were measured before each rainfall test along with the erosion measurements of runoff rate, sediment concentration in runoff, soil loss rate, and total soil loss. Non-linear regression analysis was performed using an exponential and a power model. Surface sod biomass decomposition was better depicted by the exponential model, while subsurface sod biomass was by the power model. Subsurface sod biomass decomposed faster and more than surface sod biomass, with dead roots in untilled soil without residue on the surface decomposing more than dead roots in untilled soil with surface residue. Tillage type and frequency did not appreciably influence subsurface sod biomass decomposition. Soil loss rates increased greatly with both surface sod biomass decomposition and decomposition of subsurface sod biomass in the conventionally tilled soil, but they were minimally affected by subsurface sod biomass decomposition in the untilled soil. Runoff rates were little affected by the studied treatments. Dead roots plus incorporated residues were effective in reducing erosion in the conventionally tilled soil, while consolidation of the soil surface was important in no-till. The residual effect of the turned soil on erosion diminished gradually with time and ceased after two years.

Medical demography and intergenerational inequalities in general practitioners' earnings

This article examines the link between restrictions on the number of physicians and general practitioners' (GPs) earnings. Using a representative panel of 6016 French self-employed GPs over the years 1983-2004, we estimate an earnings function to identify experience, time and cohort effects. The estimated gap in earnings between 'good' and 'bad' cohorts can be as large as 25%. GPs who began their practices during the eighties have the lowest permanent earnings: they belong to the large cohorts of the baby-boom and face the consequences of an unlimited number of places in medical schools. Conversely, the decrease in the number of places in medical schools led to an increase in permanent earnings of GPs who began their practices in the mid-nineties. A stochastic dominance analysis shows that unobserved heterogeneity does not compensate for average differences in earnings between cohorts. These findings suggest that the first years of practice are decisive for a GP. If competition between physicians is too intense at the beginning of their careers, they will suffer from permanently lower earnings. To conclude, our results show that the policies aimed at reducing the number of medical students succeeded in buoying up physicians' permanent earnings. [Ed.]

Extending the Kuznets Curve

[cat] Les darreres dècades s’han caracteritzat per un intens augment de les desigualtats salarials a nivell mundial. Aquest article allarga la hipòtesi clàssica de la Corba de Kuznets per cobrir les economies post-industrials i tractar d’explicar aquest fenomen. Segons la hipòtesi de la Corba de Kuznets Allargada, les desigualtats salarials podrien evolucionar segons una corba en forma d’N. La U-inverida d’aquesta corba seria deguda al procés de canvi estructural que acompanya a un procés de industrialització. I l’extrem dret de la mateixa, associada al creixement explosiu de la formació de capital humà en les economies modernes i post-industrials. En aquest sentit, els principals candidats per explicar el recent augment de les desigualtats: el canvi tècnic esbiaixat a favor del treball qualificat, la globalització (comerç i migracions) i els factors institucionals, estarien ja incorporats en l’evolució de la composició de la força de treball en termes de qualificacions. La limitada evidència empírica sobre aquest tema, tendeix a donar suport a la Corba de Kuznets Allargada.

Tree and Brush Control For County Road Right-of-Way, Ocotober 2002

This manual summarizes the roadside tree and brush control methods used by all of Iowa's 99 counties. It is based on interviews conducted in Spring 2002 with county engineers, roadside managers and others. The target audience of this manual is the novice county engineer or roadside manager. Iowa law is nearly silent on roadside tree and brush control, so individual counties have been left to decide on the level of control they want to achieve and maintain. Different solutions have been developed but the goal of every county remains the same: to provide safe roads for the traveling public. Counties in eastern and southern Iowa appear to face the greatest brush control challenge. Most control efforts can be divided into two categories: mechanical and chemical. Mechanical control includes cutting tools and supporting equipment. A chain saw is the most widely used cutting tool. Tractor mounted boom mowers and brush cutters are used to prune miles of brush but have significant safety and aesthetic limitations and boom mowers are easily broken by inexperienced operators. The advent of tree shears and hydraulic thumbs offer unprecedented versatility. Bulldozers are often considered a method of last resort since they reduce large areas to bare ground. Any chipper that violently grabs brush should not be used. Chemical control is the application of herbicide to different parts of a plant: foliar spray is applied to leaves; basal bark spray is applied to the tree trunk; a cut stump treatment is applied to the cambium ring of a cut surface. There is reluctance by many to apply herbicide into the air due to drift concerns. One-third of Iowa counties do not use foliar spray. By contrast, several accepted control methods are directed toward the ground. Freshly cut stumps should be treated to prevent resprouting. Basal bark spray is highly effective in sensitive areas such as near houses. Interest in chemical control is slowly increasing as herbicides and application methods are refined. Fall burning, a third, distinctly separate technique is underused as a brush control method and can be effective if timed correctly. In all, control methods tend to reflect agricultural patterns in a county. The use of chain saws and foliar sprays tends to increase in counties where row crops predominate, and boom mowing tends to increase in counties where grassland predominates. For counties with light to moderate roadside brush, rotational maintenance is the key to effective control. The most comprehensive approach to control is to implement an integrated roadside vegetation management (IRVM) program. An IRVM program is usually directed by a Roadside Manager whose duties may be shared with another position. Funding for control programs comes from the Rural Services Basic portion of a county's budget. The average annual county brush control budget is about $76,000. That figure is thought not to include shared expenses such as fuel and buildings. Start up costs for an IRVM program are less if an existing control program is converted. In addition, IRVM budgets from three different northeastern Iowa counties are offered for comparison in this manual. The manual also includes a chapter on temporary traffic control in rural work zones, a summary of the Iowa Code as it relates to brush control, and rules on avoiding seasonal disturbance of the endangered Indiana bat. Appendices summarize survey and forest cover data, an equipment inventory, sample forms for record keeping, a sample brush control policy, a few legal opinions, a literature search, and a glossary.

Extending the Kuznets Curve

[cat] Les darreres dècades s’han caracteritzat per un intens augment de les desigualtats salarials a nivell mundial. Aquest article allarga la hipòtesi clàssica de la Corba de Kuznets per cobrir les economies post-industrials i tractar d’explicar aquest fenomen. Segons la hipòtesi de la Corba de Kuznets Allargada, les desigualtats salarials podrien evolucionar segons una corba en forma d’N. La U-inverida d’aquesta corba seria deguda al procés de canvi estructural que acompanya a un procés de industrialització. I l’extrem dret de la mateixa, associada al creixement explosiu de la formació de capital humà en les economies modernes i post-industrials. En aquest sentit, els principals candidats per explicar el recent augment de les desigualtats: el canvi tècnic esbiaixat a favor del treball qualificat, la globalització (comerç i migracions) i els factors institucionals, estarien ja incorporats en l’evolució de la composició de la força de treball en termes de qualificacions. La limitada evidència empírica sobre aquest tema, tendeix a donar suport a la Corba de Kuznets Allargada.

Dificuldades dos sistemas "fechados" e dilemas da formação na pós-graduação

Este artigo trata da tendência hegemônica nos cursos de pós-graduação em áreas humanas ligadas à ação social/educativa no Brasil - na contramão da evolução mundial dos estudos ligados à relação entre educação e trabalho - a manter uma formação dominantemente marxista ortodoxa e uma orientação de caráter exegético. Dominam entre nós livros e autores que, após o boom marxista dos anos 1960/1970, praticamente desapareceram do cenário intelectual internacional. Em seu nome, qualquer conceito que não se encontre em tal literatura termina classificado como novilíngua - termo cuja origem condenava o stalinismo e que é reconvertido para denunciar aqueles que "parecem de esquerda" mas não passariam de "neoliberais". Termina-se, com isso, por restringir a liberdade de pensar, necessária à formação de verdadeiros intelectuais. Elimina-se a discussão metodológica, epistemológica, estatística e a pesquisa empírica, pelas quais as afirmações deixam de ser produto de uma atividade talmúdica e passam a apoiar-se na ida concreta ao campo

La literatura infantil i juvenil: presentació

Temps d'Educació ha volgut dedicar un monogràfic a la literatura infantil i juvenil. Aquesta excel·lent iniciativa arriba en un moment extraordinariament oportú. Precisem ara les línies que justifiquen aquesta oportunitat. D'una banda, assistim a una estabilització del boom editorial deis anys 80. Efectivament, des de mitjan anys 70 la producció de Ilibres per a infants i joves ha experimentat, aquí i arreu, un creixement espectacular. A més de permetre'ns disposar d'una oferta numericament extraordinària i d'una possibilitat de tria molt interessant, ha representat la familiarització amb llibres, corrents literaris, autors i estils molt diversos. Això, especialment a casa nostra, suposa un bon pas cap a la normalització del sector i l'abandó d'un cert pionerisme. I també la consolidació d'una literatura que ja ningú no pot anomenar residual o minoritaria, aïllada deis habituals sistemes de producció o imposició en el mercat. Ha arribat el moment de reflexionar-hi, de destriar, de crear les eines crítiques sobre tot aquest fenomen.

Poverty and living arrangements among youth in Spain, 1980-2005

One of the most relevant demographic events in Spain from a recent historical perspective was the baby boom of the 1960s and 1970s. The “adapting to circumstances” of these generations of youth and their families through delayed emancipation and childbearing has been key in preventing a decline in their economic status. The results show that the reduction of the poverty risk among non-emancipated youth for the period 1980-2005 is explained by the fact that an increasing number of young Spaniards live with two employed parents. Thus, emancipation delay is found most in those families that can best afford it. Furthermore, the salaries of young workers remaining in the parental home have become an important factor in reducing their family poverty risk. On the other hand, fertility decline is readily explained by the economic difficulties young couples encounter in sustaining their offspring