The population dynamics of disease on short and long time-scales

Observational evidence is scarce concerning the distribution of plant pathogen population sizes or densities as a function of time-scale or spatial scale. For wild pathosystems we can only get indirect evidence from evolutionary patterns and the consequences of biological invasions.We have little or no evidence bearing on extermination of hosts by pathogens, or successful escape of a host from a pathogen. Evidence over the last couple of centuries from crops suggest that the abundance of particular pathogens in the spectrum affecting a given host can vary hugely on decadal timescales. However, this may be an artefact of domestication and intensive cultivation. Host-pathogen dynamics can be formulated mathematically fairly easily–for example as SIR-type differential equation or difference equation models, and this has been the (successful) focus of recent work in crops. “Long-term” is then discussed in terms of the time taken to relax from a perturbation to the asymptotic state. However, both host and pathogen dynamics are driven by environmental factors as well as their mutual interactions, and both host and pathogen co-evolve, and evolve in response to external factors. We have virtually no information about the importance and natural role of higher trophic levels (hyperpathogens) and competitors, but they could also induce long-scale fluctuations in the abundance of pathogens on particular hosts. In wild pathosystems the host distribution cannot be modelled as either a uniform density or even a uniform distribution of fields (which could then be treated as individuals). Patterns of short term density-dependence and the detail of host distribution are therefore critical to long-term dynamics. Host density distributions are not usually scale-free, but are rarely uniform or clearly structured on a single scale. In a (multiply structured) metapopulation with coevolution and external disturbances it could well be the case that the time required to attain equilibrium (if it exists) based on conditions stable over a specified time-scale is longer than that time-scale. Alternatively, local equilibria may be reached fairly rapidly following perturbations but the meta-population equilibrium be attained very slowly. In either case, meta-stability on various time-scales is a more relevant than equilibrium concepts in explaining observed patterns.

Evolution PDEs and augmented eigenfunctions. half line.

The solution of an initial-boundary value problem for a linear evolution partial differential equation posed on the half-line can be represented in terms of an integral in the complex (spectral) plane. This representation is obtained by the unified transform introduced by Fokas in the 90's. On the other hand, it is known that many initial-boundary value problems can be solved via a classical transform pair, constructed via the spectral analysis of the associated spatial operator. For example, the Dirichlet problem for the heat equation can be solved by applying the Fourier sine transform pair. However, for many other initial-boundary value problems there is no suitable transform pair in the classical literature. Here we pose and answer two related questions: Given any well-posed initial-boundary value problem, does there exist a (non-classical) transform pair suitable for solving that problem? If so, can this transform pair be constructed via the spectral analysis of a differential operator? The answer to both of these questions is positive and given in terms of augmented eigenfunctions, a novel class of spectral functionals. These are eigenfunctions of a suitable differential operator in a certain generalised sense, they provide an effective spectral representation of the operator, and are associated with a transform pair suitable to solve the given initial-boundary value problem.

A priori error analysis of space–time Trefftz discontinuous Galerkin methods for wave problems

We present and analyse a space–time discontinuous Galerkin method for wave propagation problems. The special feature of the scheme is that it is a Trefftz method, namely that trial and test functions are solution of the partial differential equation to be discretised in each element of the (space–time) mesh. The method considered is a modification of the discontinuous Galerkin schemes of Kretzschmar et al. (2014) and of Monk & Richter (2005). For Maxwell’s equations in one space dimension, we prove stability of the method, quasi-optimality, best approximation estimates for polynomial Trefftz spaces and (fully explicit) error bounds with high order in the meshwidth and in the polynomial degree. The analysis framework also applies to scalar wave problems and Maxwell’s equations in higher space dimensions. Some numerical experiments demonstrate the theoretical results proved and the faster convergence compared to the non-Trefftz version of the scheme.

Regulation of early steps of GPVI signal transduction by phosphatases: a systems biology approach

We present a data-driven mathematical model of a key initiating step in platelet activation, a central process in the prevention of bleeding following Injury. In vascular disease, this process is activated inappropriately and causes thrombosis, heart attacks and stroke. The collagen receptor GPVI is the primary trigger for platelet activation at sites of injury. Understanding the complex molecular mechanisms initiated by this receptor is important for development of more effective antithrombotic medicines. In this work we developed a series of nonlinear ordinary differential equation models that are direct representations of biological hypotheses surrounding the initial steps in GPVI-stimulated signal transduction. At each stage model simulations were compared to our own quantitative, high-temporal experimental data that guides further experimental design, data collection and model refinement. Much is known about the linear forward reactions within platelet signalling pathways but knowledge of the roles of putative reverse reactions are poorly understood. An initial model, that includes a simple constitutively active phosphatase, was unable to explain experimental data. Model revisions, incorporating a complex pathway of interactions (and specifically the phosphatase TULA-2), provided a good description of the experimental data both based on observations of phosphorylation in samples from one donor and in those of a wider population. Our model was used to investigate the levels of proteins involved in regulating the pathway and the effect of low GPVI levels that have been associated with disease. Results indicate a clear separation in healthy and GPVI deficient states in respect of the signalling cascade dynamics associated with Syk tyrosine phosphorylation and activation. Our approach reveals the central importance of this negative feedback pathway that results in the temporal regulation of a specific class of protein tyrosine phosphatases in controlling the rate, and therefore extent, of GPVI-stimulated platelet activation.

Reappraisal of the effective elastic thickness for the sub-Andes using 3-D finite element flexural modelling, gravity and geological constraints

P>Estimates of effective elastic thickness (T(e)) for the western portion of the South American Plate using, independently, forward flexural modelling and coherence analysis, suggest different thermomechanical properties for the same continental lithosphere. We present a review of these T(e) estimates and carry out a critical reappraisal using a common methodology of 3-D finite element method to solve a differential equation for the bending of a thin elastic plate. The finite element flexural model incorporates lateral variations of T(e) and the Andes topography as the load. Three T(e) maps for the entire Andes were analysed: Stewart & Watts (1997), Tassara et al. (2007) and Perez-Gussinye et al. (2007). The predicted flexural deformation obtained for each T(e) map was compared with the depth to the base of the foreland basin sequence. Likewise, the gravity effect of flexurally induced crust-mantle deformation was compared with the observed Bouguer gravity. T(e) estimates using forward flexural modelling by Stewart & Watts (1997) better predict the geological and gravity data for most of the Andean system, particularly in the Central Andes, where T(e) ranges from greater than 70 km in the sub-Andes to less than 15 km under the Andes Cordillera. The misfit between the calculated and observed foreland basin subsidence and the gravity anomaly for the Maranon basin in Peru and the Bermejo basin in Argentina, regardless of the assumed T(e) map, may be due to a dynamic topography component associated with the shallow subduction of the Nazca Plate beneath the Andes at these latitudes.

CDM accelerating cosmology as an alternative to Lambda CDM model

A new accelerating cosmology driven only by baryons plus cold dark matter (CDM) is proposed in the framework of general relativity. In this scenario the present accelerating stage of the Universe is powered by the negative pressure describing the gravitationally-induced particle production of cold dark matter particles. This kind of scenario has only one free parameter and the differential equation governing the evolution of the scale factor is exactly the same of the Lambda CDM model. For a spatially flat Universe, as predicted by inflation (Omega(dm) + Omega(baryon) = 1), it is found that the effectively observed matter density parameter is Omega(meff) = 1 - alpha, where alpha is the constant parameter specifying the CDM particle creation rate. The supernovae test based on the Union data (2008) requires alpha similar to 0.71 so that Omega(meff) similar to 0.29 as independently derived from weak gravitational lensing, the large scale structure and other complementary observations.

Dynamics of a class of ODEs more general than almost periodic

A temporally global solution, if it exists, of a nonautonomous ordinary differential equation need not be periodic, almost periodic or almost automorphic when the forcing term is periodic, almost periodic or almost automorphic, respectively. An alternative class of functions extending periodic and almost periodic functions which has the property that a bounded temporally global solution solution of a nonautonomous ordinary differential equation belongs to this class when the forcing term does is introduced here. Specifically, the class of functions consists of uniformly continuous functions, defined on the real line and taking values in a Banach space, which have pre-compact ranges. Besides periodic and almost periodic functions, this class also includes many nonrecurrent functions. Assuming a hyperbolic structure for the unperturbed linear equation and certain properties for the linear and nonlinear parts, the existence of a special bounded entire solution, as well the existence of stable and unstable manifolds of this solution are established. Moreover, it is shown that this solution and these manifolds inherit the temporal behaviour of the vector field equation. In the stable case it is shown that this special solution is the pullback attractor of the system. A class of infinite dimensional examples involving a linear operator consisting of a time independent part which generates a C(0)-semigroup plus a small time dependent part is presented and applied to systems of coupled heat and beam equations. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A geometric mass-preserving redistancing scheme for the level set function

In this paper we describe and evaluate a geometric mass-preserving redistancing procedure for the level set function on general structured grids. The proposed algorithm is adapted from a recent finite element-based method and preserves the mass by means of a localized mass correction. A salient feature of the scheme is the absence of adjustable parameters. The algorithm is tested in two and three spatial dimensions and compared with the widely used partial differential equation (PDE)-based redistancing method using structured Cartesian grids. Through the use of quantitative error measures of interest in level set methods, we show that the overall performance of the proposed geometric procedure is better than PDE-based reinitialization schemes, since it is more robust with comparable accuracy. We also show that the algorithm is well-suited for the highly stretched curvilinear grids used in CFD simulations. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

BREAKING WAVES IN AN IDEAL QUARK GLUON PLASMA

We study the propagation of perturbations in the energy density in a quark gluon plasma. Expanding the Euler and continuity equations of relativistic hydrodynamics around equilibrium configurations we obtain a nonlinear differential equation called the breaking wave equation. We solve it numerically and follow the time-evolution of initially localized pulses. We find that, quite unexpectedly, these pulses live for a very long time (compared to the reaction time-scales) before breaking. In practice, they mimick the Korteweg-de Vries solitons. Their existence may have some observable consequences.

A model for the stabilization of atomic hydrogen centers in borate glasses

A previously proposed model describing the trapping site of the interstitial atomic hydrogen in borate glasses is analyzed. In this model the atomic hydrogen is stabilized at the centers of oxygen polygons belonging to B-O ring structures in the glass network by van der Waals forces. The previously reported atomic hydrogen isothermal decay experimental data are discussed in the light of this microscopic model. A coupled differential equation system of the observed decay kinetics was solved numerically using the Runge Kutta method. The experimental untrapping activation energy of 0.7 x 10(-19) J is in good agreement with the calculated results of dispersion interaction between the stabilized atomic hydrogen and the neighboring oxygen atoms at the vertices of hexagonal ring structures. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Density-Profile Processes Describing Biological Signaling Networks: Almost Sure Convergence to Deterministic Trajectories

We introduce jump processes in R(k), called density-profile processes, to model biological signaling networks. Our modeling setup describes the macroscopic evolution of a finite-size spin-flip model with k types of spins with arbitrary number of internal states interacting through a non-reversible stochastic dynamics. We are mostly interested on the multi-dimensional empirical-magnetization vector in the thermodynamic limit, and prove that, within arbitrary finite time-intervals, its path converges almost surely to a deterministic trajectory determined by a first-order (non-linear) differential equation with explicit bounds on the distance between the stochastic and deterministic trajectories. As parameters of the spin-flip dynamics change, the associated dynamical system may go through bifurcations, associated to phase transitions in the statistical mechanical setting. We present a simple example of spin-flip stochastic model, associated to a synthetic biology model known as repressilator, which leads to a dynamical system with Hopf and pitchfork bifurcations. Depending on the parameter values, the magnetization random path can either converge to a unique stable fixed point, converge to one of a pair of stable fixed points, or asymptotically evolve close to a deterministic orbit in Rk. We also discuss a simple signaling pathway related to cancer research, called p53 module.

Metastable Periodic Patterns in Singularly Perturbed Delayed Equations

We consider the scalar delayed differential equation epsilon(x) over dot(t) = -x(t) + f(x(t-1)), where epsilon > 0 and f verifies either df/dx > 0 or df/dx < 0 and some other conditions. We present theorems indicating that a generic initial condition with sign changes generates a solution with a transient time of order exp(c/epsilon), for some c > 0. We call it a metastable solution. During this transient a finite time span of the solution looks like that of a periodic function. It is remarkable that if df/dx > 0 then f must be odd or present some other very special symmetry in order to support metastable solutions, while this condition is absent in the case df/dx < 0. Explicit epsilon-asymptotics for the motion of zeroes of a solution and for the transient time regime are presented.

ENO adaptive method for solving one-dimensional conservation laws

In this work an efficient third order non-linear finite difference scheme for solving adaptively hyperbolic systems of one-dimensional conservation laws is developed. The method is based oil applying to the solution of the differential equation an interpolating wavelet transform at each time step, generating a multilevel representation for the solution, which is thresholded and a sparse point representation is generated. The numerical fluxes obtained by a Lax-Friedrichs flux splitting are evaluated oil the sparse grid by an essentially non-oscillatory (ENO) approximation, which chooses the locally smoothest stencil among all the possibilities for each point of the sparse grid. The time evolution of the differential operator is done on this sparse representation by a total variation diminishing (TVD) Runge-Kutta method. Four classical examples of initial value problems for the Euler equations of gas dynamics are accurately solved and their sparse solutions are analyzed with respect to the threshold parameters, confirming the efficiency of the wavelet transform as an adaptive grid generation technique. (C) 2008 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Welfare costs of inflation: the case for interest-bearing money and empirical estimates for Brazil

We provide in this paper a closed fonn for the Welfare Cost of Inflation which we prove to be closer than Bailey's expression to the correct solution of the corresponding non-separable differential equation. Next. we extend this approach to ao economy with interest-bearing money, once again presenting a better appoximation than the one given by Bailey's approach. Fmally, empirical estimates for Brazil are presented.

Two additions to Lucas's "inflation and welfare"

This work adds to Lucas (2000) by providing analytical solutions to two problems that are solved only numerically by the author. The first part uses a theorem in control theory (Arrow' s sufficiency theorem) to provide sufficiency conditions to characterize the optimum in a shopping-time problem where the value function need not be concave. In the original paper the optimality of the first-order condition is characterized only by means of a numerical analysis. The second part of the paper provides a closed-form solution to the general-equilibrium expression of the welfare costs of inflation when the money demand is double logarithmic. This closed-form solution allows for the precise calculation of the difference between the general-equilibrium and Bailey's partial-equilibrium estimates of the welfare losses due to inflation. Again, in Lucas's original paper, the solution to the general-equilibrium-case underlying nonlinear differential equation is done only numerically, and the posterior assertion that the general-equilibrium welfare figures cannot be distinguished from those derived using Bailey's formula rely only on numerical simulations as well.