916 resultados para bayesian analysis
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Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Genética e Melhoramento de Plantas) - FCAV
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Dengue virus is a major public health problem worldwide. Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti is the main dengue vector. Since there is no specific treatment or effective vaccine, control measure is focused on vector control. It is believed that population density is higher in the warmer/rainy season than in cold/dry. The study aimed to genetically characterize population dynamics of Ae. aegypti during climatic variations. Collections were performed at least once in both periods over five years by oviposition traps at Botucatu city. The technique of TaqMan allelic discrimination was used for genetic analysis, in which SNPs from nine genes distributed on three chromosomes of the mosquito were genotyped. Bayesian analysis did not show variance on population structure over the five year period. The percentage of variation among samples in statistical analysis was low (Fst = 0.0028, p = 0.7634), furthermore the allele frequencies were constant. The results show that despite wide variation in the density of adults, population size does not vary. Therefore, there is variation in the prevalence of the species life stages: adults in warmer/rainy, and possibly eggs in cold/dry, resulting in different control strategies for each period. Moreover, estimation of population size should not consider only winged adults, but all other found life stages forms
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Pós-graduação em Genética e Melhoramento Animal - FCAV
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Acrocomia aculeata is a perennial, fruit-producing palm tree, native to tropical forests. Its fruits have spurred interest because of their significant potential for use in the cosmetic industry and as feedstock for biofuel. In the present study, the genetic structure and mating system in Acrocomia aculeata were analyzed, using eight nuclear microsatellite loci and samples from Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais states, Brazil. By means of Bayesian analysis, these populations were clustered into two or three groups. A high multilocus outcrossing rate suggests that outcrosses were predominant, although a certain degree of biparental inbreeding also occurred. Thus, although monoecious and self-compatible, there is every indication that A. aculeata bears a mixed reproductive system, with a predominance of outcrossing. Given the genetic structure revealed hereby, future conservation strategies and germplasm collecting should be focussed on sampling and preserving individuals from different clusters.
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Abstract Background The Brazilian population is mainly descendant from European colonizers, Africans and Native Americans. Some Afro-descendants lived in small isolated communities since the slavery period. The epidemiological status of HBV infection in Quilombos communities from northeast of Brazil remains unknown. The aim of this study was to characterize the HBV genotypes circulating inside a Quilombo isolated community from Maranhão State, Brazil. Methods Seventy-two samples from Frechal Quilombo community at Maranhão were collected. All serum samples were screened by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays for the presence of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg). HBsAg positive samples were submitted to DNA extraction and a fragment of 1306 bp partially comprising HBsAg and polymerase coding regions (S/POL) was amplified by nested PCR and its nucleotide sequence was determined. Viral isolates were genotyped by phylogenetic analysis using reference sequences from each genotype obtained from GenBank (n = 320). Sequences were aligned using Muscle software and edited in the SE-AL software. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses were conducted using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to obtain the MCC tree using BEAST v.1.5.3. Results Of the 72 individuals, 9 (12.5%) were HBsAg-positive and 4 of them were successfully sequenced for the 1306 bp fragment. All these samples were genotype A1 and grouped together with other sequences reported from Brazil. Conclusions The present study represents the first report on the HBV genotypes characterization of this community in the Maranhão state in Brazil where a high HBsAg frequency was found. In this study, we reported a high frequency of HBV infection and the exclusive presence of subgenotype A1 in an Afro-descendent community in the Maranhão State, Brazil.
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What does it take to make a coalition successful? Bigger coalitions are more likely to be successful because the GATT/WTO is a consensus-based institution and countries are informally penalized if they isolate themselves. Through a Bayesian statistical analysis, the article corroborates the above hypothesis. To further investigate the research question, qualitative case studies of the G-10 in the Uruguay Round and the Public Health Coalition in the Doha Round are conducted. These cases show that the more convincing the framing of a position, the better are the chances of coalitions keeping a large number of followers and supporters, thereby affecting their odds of success. By building a unique database and applying a new research design to the topic, the study rigorously tests theories about coalitions that had previously only been proposed but not empirically analyzed.
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Abstract Background Effective malaria control relies on accurate identification of those Anopheles mosquitoes responsible for the transmission of Plasmodium parasites. Anopheles oswaldoi s.l. has been incriminated as a malaria vector in Colombia and some localities in Brazil, but not ubiquitously throughout its Neotropical range. This evidence together with variable morphological characters and genetic differences supports that An. oswaldoi s.l. compromises a species complex. The recent fully integrated redescription of An. oswaldoi s.s. provides a solid taxonomic foundation from which to molecularly determine other members of the complex. Methods DNA sequences of the Second Internal Transcribed Spacer (ITS2 - rDNA) (n = 192) and the barcoding region of the Cytochrome Oxidase I gene (COI - mtDNA) (n = 110) were generated from 255 specimens of An. oswaldoi s.l. from 33 localities: Brazil (8 localities, including the lectotype series of An. oswaldoi), Ecuador (4), Colombia (17), Trinidad and Tobago (1), and Peru (3). COI sequences were analyzed employing the Kimura-two-parameter model (K2P), Bayesian analysis (MrBayes), Mixed Yule-Coalescent model (MYC, for delimitation of clusters) and TCS genealogies. Results Separate and combined analysis of the COI and ITS2 data sets unequivocally supported four separate species: two previously determined (An. oswaldoi s.s. and An. oswaldoi B) and two newly designated species in the Oswaldoi Complex (An. oswaldoi A and An. sp. nr. konderi). The COI intra- and inter-specific genetic distances for the four taxa were non-overlapping, averaging 0.012 (0.007 to 0.020) and 0.052 (0.038 to 0.064), respectively. The concurring four clusters delineated by MrBayes and MYC, and four independent TCS networks, strongly confirmed their separate species status. In addition, An. konderi of Sallum should be regarded as unique with respect to the above. Despite initially being included as an outgroup taxon, this species falls well within the examined taxa, suggesting a combined analysis of these taxa would be most appropriate. Conclusions: Through novel data and retrospective comparison of available COI and ITS2 DNA sequences, evidence is shown to support the separate species status of An. oswaldoi s.s., An. oswaldoi A and An. oswaldoi B, and at least two species in the closely related An. konderi complex (An. sp. nr. konderi, An. konderi of Sallum). Although An. oswaldoi s.s. has never been implicated in malaria transmission, An. oswaldoi B is a confirmed vector and the new species An. oswaldoi A and An. sp. nr. konderi are circumstantially implicated, most likely acting as secondary vectors.
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In order to obtain a better understanding of tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) strain movements in central Europe the E gene sequences of 102 TBEV strains collected from 1953 to 2011 at 38 sites in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria and Germany were determined. Bayesian analysis suggests a 350-year history of evolution and spread in central Europe of two main lineages, A and B. In contrast to the east to west spread at the Eurasian continent level, local central European spreading patterns suggest historic west to east spread followed by more recent east to west spread. The phylogenetic and network analyses indicate TBEV ingressions from the Czech Republic and Slovakia into Germany via landscape features (Danube river system), biogenic factors (birds, red deer) and anthropogenic factors. The identification of endemic foci showing local genetic diversity is of paramount importance to the field as these will be a prerequisite for in-depth analysis of focal TBEV maintenance and long-distance TBEV spread.
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The Brachiopoda of the Marine Protected Area “Secche di Tor Paterno”, Central Tyrrhenian Sea, have been investigated in order to give a first glance of the diversity of the brachiopods of this area and provide a new report on the Mediterranean Brachiopod fauna. Four species were reported: Novocrania anomala (Müller, 1776), Megathiris detruncata (Gmelin, 1790), Joania cordata (Risso,1826) and Argyrotheca cuneata (Risso,1826). For all the four species a morphological analysis was carried out. For the two most abundant species, J.cordata and A. cuneata, a morphometric study, based on thickness/width and length/width scattergrams, was carried out, in order to investigate their variability. Size-frequency distributions relative to the three dimensions of the shell were also computed, aimed at a evaluation of population dynamics of these two species. The results showed that, for both species, the parameters which most determine the rise of the shell during the growth of animal are width and length and that frequency distributions are mainly bi- or plurymodal and that they are difficult to interpret, as reported by other studies. Analysis of drill holes found on the shell of some specimens of the two same species revealed a predatory origin and that three different predators are responsible for them. Partial sequences of two different genetic markers, the Internal Transcribed Spacer 1 (ITS1) and the cytochrome oxidase subunit 1 (COI), were used to investigate the phylogenetic relationship between two populations of the eurybathic brachiopod species Gryphus vitreus (Born,1778) across the strait of Gibraltar. This represents the first genetic population study on brachiopods. Results from AMOVA and Bayesian analysis performed on 31 specimens highlighted no genetic differentiation indicating a likely panmixia, dispite the lecitotrophic development of the species.
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Die Systematik, Phylogenie und Biogeographie der Gattung Cousinia (Asteraceae, Cardueae) als größter Gattung der Tribus Cardueae mit mehr als 600 Arten wurde untersucht. Diese Dissertation umfasst drei Hauptteile: Im ersten Teil wurde die Phylogenie und Evolution des Arctium-Cousinia-Komplexes Untersucht. Dieser Gattungskomplex enthält Arctium, Cousinia, Hypacanthium und Schmalhausenia und zeigt die höchste Diversität in der Irano-Turanischen Region und in den Gebirgen Zentralasiens. Es wurden ITS und rpS4-trnT-trnL-Sequenzen für insgesamt 138 Arten generiert, darunter von 129 (von ca. 600) Arten von Cousinia. Wie in früheren Analysen bereits gefunden, ist Cousinia nicht monophyletisch. Stattdessen sind Cousinia subg. Cynaroides und subg. Hypacanthodes mit insgesamt ca. 30 Arten enger mit Arctium, Hypacanthium und Schmalhausenia (Arctioid Clade) als mit subg. Cousinia (Cousinioid Clade) verwandt. Die Arctioid und Cousiniod clades werden auch durch Pollenmorphologie und Chromosomenzahl unterstützt, wie bereits früher bekannt war. In dem Arctioid Clade entsprechen morphologische Gattungsgrenzen, basierend auf Blattform, Blattbedornung und Morphologie der Involukralblätter, nicht den in der molekularen analyse gefundenen clades. Es kann keine taxonomische Lösung für diesen Konflikt gefunden werden, und die gennanten Merkmale wurden als homoplastisch betrachtet. Obwohl die phylogenetische Auflösung in dem Cousinioid Clade schlecht ist, enthalten die ITS und rpS4-trnT-trnL-Sequenzen phylogenetische Information. So gruppierten z.B. die sechs annuellen Arten in zwei Gruppen. Schlechte phylogenetische Auflösung resultiert wahrscheinlich aus dem Mangel an Merkmalen und der großen Artenzahl in dieser artenreichen und vergleichsweise jungen (ca. 8,7 mya) Linie. Artbildung in dem Cousinioid Clade scheint hauptsächlich allopatrisch zu sein. Der zweite Teil der Dissertation untersucht die Rolle der Hybridisierung in der Evolution von Cousinia s.s. Die in der Vergangenheit publizierteten 28 Hybrid-Kombinationen und 11 Zwischenformen wurden kritisch geprüft, und zwei Hybridindividuen wurden morphologisch und molekular untersucht. Die vermutlichen oder nachgewiesenen Eltern der Hybriden und Zwischenformen wurden auf die aus einer Bayesischen Analyse der ITS-Sequenzen von 216 Arten von Cousinia und verwandten Gattungen resultierenden Phylogenie aufgetragen. Weder Hybriden zwischen dem Cousinioid Clade und anderen Haupt-Claden des Arctium-Cousinia-Komplexes noch zwischen annuellen und perennirenden Arten von Cousinia s.s. wurden beobachtet. Die Ergebnisse zeigen eindeutig, dass Hybridisierung in Cousinia möglich is, und dass ca. 10,7% der Arten an interspezifischer Hybridisierung beteiligt sind. Obwohl Hybridisierung in Cousinia s.s. stattfindet und zu den Schwierigkeiten bei der Rekonstruktion ihrer phylogenetischen Geschichte beitragen könnte, war ihre Rolle für die Entwicklung und Diversität der Gruppe offenbar gering. Im dritten Teil wird eine taxonomische Revision der C. sect. Cynaroideae präsentiert. Cousinia sect. Cynaroideae, die größte Sektion der Gattung mit 110 veröffentlichten Arten, zeichnet sich durch eine Chromosomenzahl von 2n = 24 und durch ± herablaufende Blätter und Hüllblätter mit Anhängseln aus. Sie kommt im Iran, Irak, dem Kaukasus, der Türkei, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, dem Libanon und Anti-Libanon vor und hat ihre Hauptzentren der Artdiversität im westlichen und nordwestlichen Iran, im Irak und in der südöstlichen Türkei. Die Revision dieser Gruppe, hauptsächlich basierend auf der Untersuchung von ca. 2250 Herbarbögen, führte zu einer Verringerung der Artenzahl auf 31 Arten mit acht Unterarten. Alle Arten werden typifiziert und ausgeschlüsselt, und Beschreibungen, Abbildungen und Verbreitungskarten werden für jede Art angegeben.
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The relationship and phylogeny of the western Palearctic harvestmen family Trogulidae is investigated. The traditional system of seven genera and approximately 40 species appeared to be artificially composed but a phylogenetic approach and a comprehensive revision has long been sought after. Species are poorly characterised due to their uniform morphology and species evaluation is furthermore complicated by the variability of the few characters used for species delineation. To meet these demands a molecular genetic analysis is accomplished using the nuclear 28S rRNA gene and the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene. This analysis incorporates most genera and species of Trogulidae as well as a comprehensive set of Nemastomatidae and Dicranolasmatidae as outgroup taxa. Phylogenetic results of Bayesian analysis, Maximum Parsimony, Maximum Likelihood and Neighbor Joining are compared with distributional data, morphological characters and results of canonical discriminant analysis of morphometric characters and general congruence of these data sets is shown. To demonstrate the applicability of this method the revision of two species-groups within Trogulus is set out in detail. The Trogulus hirtus species-group and the Trogulus coriziformis species-group are revised. The former is in the central and north-western Balkan Peninsula. T. tricarinatus ssp. hirtus is raised to species level and four new species are described (T. karamanorum [man.n.], T. melitensis [man.n.], T. pharensis [man.n]; T. thaleri [man.n.]). The Trogulus coriziformis species-group is confined to the western Mediterranean area. T. coriziformis, T. aquaticus are re-described, T. cristatus and T. lusitanicus are re-established and four species are described as new (T. balearicus, T. huberi, T. prietoi, T. pyrenaicus). In both species-groups two further cryptic species probably exist but were not described. The species groups are shown to represent different phylogenetic levels and this information is used for the revisional work on the genus Trogulus as well as for the generic system of Trogulidae. Family status of Dicranolasmatidae is rejected and Dicranolasma is shown to be best incorporated within Trogulidae. Calathocratus, Platybessobius and Trogulocratus appear to be polyphyletic and are best to be united within Calathocratus, the oldest name of this set. The cryptic diversity within Trogulidae, especially in Trogulus and the composed genus Calathocratus rates to 150-235% and is thereby remarkably high for a group of the generally well researched European fauna. Genetic features of the group such as heteroplasmy, the possibility of major gene rearrangements and usability of the cytochrome b gene for phylogenetic studies in Opiliones are outlined.
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We describe a method for evaluating an ensemble of predictive models given a sample of observations comprising the model predictions and the outcome event measured with error. Our formulation allows us to simultaneously estimate measurement error parameters, true outcome — aka the gold standard — and a relative weighting of the predictive scores. We describe conditions necessary to estimate the gold standard and for these estimates to be calibrated and detail how our approach is related to, but distinct from, standard model combination techniques. We apply our approach to data from a study to evaluate a collection of BRCA1/BRCA2 gene mutation prediction scores. In this example, genotype is measured with error by one or more genetic assays. We estimate true genotype for each individual in the dataset, operating characteristics of the commonly used genotyping procedures and a relative weighting of the scores. Finally, we compare the scores against the gold standard genotype and find that Mendelian scores are, on average, the more refined and better calibrated of those considered and that the comparison is sensitive to measurement error in the gold standard.
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An appropriate model of recent human evolution is not only important to understand our own history, but it is necessary to disentangle the effects of demography and selection on genome diversity. Although most genetic data support the view that our species originated recently in Africa, it is still unclear if it completely replaced former members of the Homo genus, or if some interbreeding occurred during its range expansion. Several scenarios of modern human evolution have been proposed on the basis of molecular and paleontological data, but their likelihood has never been statistically assessed. Using DNA data from 50 nuclear loci sequenced in African, Asian and Native American samples, we show here by extensive simulations that a simple African replacement model with exponential growth has a higher probability (78%) as compared with alternative multiregional evolution or assimilation scenarios. A Bayesian analysis of the data under this best supported model points to an origin of our species approximately 141 thousand years ago (Kya), an exit out-of-Africa approximately 51 Kya, and a recent colonization of the Americas approximately 10.5 Kya. We also find that the African replacement model explains not only the shallow ancestry of mtDNA or Y-chromosomes but also the occurrence of deep lineages at some autosomal loci, which has been formerly interpreted as a sign of interbreeding with Homo erectus.
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Aims. We present an inversion method based on Bayesian analysis to constrain the interior structure of terrestrial exoplanets, in the form of chemical composition of the mantle and core size. Specifically, we identify what parts of the interior structure of terrestrial exoplanets can be determined from observations of mass, radius, and stellar elemental abundances. Methods. We perform a full probabilistic inverse analysis to formally account for observational and model uncertainties and obtain confidence regions of interior structure models. This enables us to characterize how model variability depends on data and associated uncertainties. Results. We test our method on terrestrial solar system planets and find that our model predictions are consistent with independent estimates. Furthermore, we apply our method to synthetic exoplanets up to 10 Earth masses and up to 1.7 Earth radii, and to exoplanet Kepler-36b. Importantly, the inversion strategy proposed here provides a framework for understanding the level of precision required to characterize the interior of exoplanets. Conclusions. Our main conclusions are (1) observations of mass and radius are sufficient to constrain core size; (2) stellar elemental abundances (Fe, Si, Mg) are principal constraints to reduce degeneracy in interior structure models and to constrain mantle composition; (3) the inherent degeneracy in determining interior structure from mass and radius observations does not only depend on measurement accuracies, but also on the actual size and density of the exoplanet. We argue that precise observations of stellar elemental abundances are central in order to place constraints on planetary bulk composition and to reduce model degeneracy. We provide a general methodology of analyzing interior structures of exoplanets that may help to understand how interior models are distributed among star systems. The methodology we propose is sufficiently general to allow its future extension to more complex internal structures including hydrogen- and water-rich exoplanets.