EURODIAB childhood type 1 diabetes incidence registers - results from the first 20 years. Oral presentation at the 47th EASD Annual Meeting, Lisbon, Portugal.

Background and aims: In 1989 a number of registers in Europe began recording new cases of type 1 diabetes diagnosed in children aged under 15 years using a common protocol. Trends in incidence rate during the 20 year period 1989-2008 are described.
Materials and methods: All registers operate in geographically defined regions and are based on a clinical diagnosis. When possible, completeness of registration in each register is assessed using capture-recapture methodology by identifying primary and secondary sources of ascertainment. The completeness estimate is obtained by identifying the numbers of cases identified by the primary source only, by the secondary source only and by both the primary and the secondary sources.
Results: Other registers have joined the Group since 1989, and 21 registers in 15 countries continue to submit registration data. In the first five years (1989-93) incidence rates varied from 3.2 per 100,000 in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia to 25.8 per 100,000 in the Stockholm area of Sweden. In the last five years (2004-2008) these same two registers again had the lowest and highest incidence, but rates had increased to 5.8 per 100,000 and 36.6 per 100,000, respectively. During the 20 year period all but two of the 21 registers showed statistically significant rates of increase (median rate of increase 4% per annum), and similar figures were obtained when this median rate of increase was estimated for the first half of the period (1989-98) and for the second half (1999-2008) . However, rates of increase differed significantly between the first half and the second half of the period for eight of the 17 registers with adequate coverage of both periods; four registers showing significantly higher rates of increase in the first half and four significantly higher rates in the second half.
Conclusion: The childhood type 1 diabetes incidence rate continues to rise across Europe by approximately 4% per annum, but the increase within a register is not necessarily uniform with periods of less rapid and more rapid increase in incidence occurring in some registers. This pattern of change suggests that important risk exposures differ over time in different European countries. Further time trend analysis and comparison of the patterns in defined regions are warranted.

Tip leakage flow and heat transfer on turbine blade tip and casing, Part 1: Effect of tip clearance height and rotation speed

Steady simulations were performed to investigate tip leakage flow and heat transfer characteristics on the rotor blade tip and casing in a single-stage gas turbine engine. A typical high-pressure gas turbine stage was modeled with a pressure ratio of 3.2. The predicted isentropic Mach number and adiabatic wall temperature on the casing showed good agreement with available experimental data under similar operating condition. The present numerical study focuses extensively on the effects of tip clearance heights and rotor rotational speeds on the blade tip and casing heat transfer characteristics. It was observed that the tip leakage flow structure is highly dependent on the height of the tip gap and the speed of the rotor. In all cases, the tip leakage flow was seen to separate and recirculate just around the corner of the pressure side of the blade tip. This region of re-circulating flow enlarges with increasing clearance heights. The separated leakage flow reattaches afterwards on the tip surface. Leakage flow reattachment was shown to enhance surface heat transfer at the tip. The interaction between tip leakage flow and secondary flows that is induced by the relative casing motion is found to significantly influence the blade tip and casing heat transfer distribution. A region of critical heat transfer exists on the casing near the blade tip leading edge and along the pressure-side edge for all the clearance heights that were investigated. At high rotation speed, the region of critical heat transfer tends to move towards the trailing edge due to the change in inflow angle.

Speed of processing in the primary motor cortex: A continuous theta burst stimulation study

‘Temporally urgent’ reactions are extremely rapid, spatially precise movements that are evoked following discrete stimuli. The involvement of primary motor cortex (M1) and its relationship to stimulus intensity in such reactions is not well understood. Continuous theta burst stimulation (cTBS) suppresses focal regions of the cortex and can assess the involvement of motor cortex in speed of processing. The primary objective of this study was to explore the involvement of M1 in speed of processing with respect to stimulus intensity. Thirteen healthy young adults participated in this experiment. Behavioral testing consisted of a simple button press using the index finger following median nerve stimulation of the opposite limb, at either high or low stimulus intensity. Reaction time was measured by the onset of electromyographic activity from the first dorsal interosseous (FDI) muscle of each limb. Participants completed a 30 min bout of behavioral testing prior to, and 15 min following, the delivery of cTBS to the motor cortical representation of the right FDI. The effect of cTBS on motor cortex was measured by recording the average of 30 motor evoked potentials (MEPs) just prior to, and 5 min following, cTBS. Paired t-tests revealed that, of thirteen participants, five demonstrated a significant attenuation, three demonstrated a significant facilitation and five demonstrated no significant change in MEP amplitude following cTBS. Of the group that demonstrated attenuated MEPs, there was a biologically significant interaction between stimulus intensity and effect of cTBS on reaction time and amplitude of muscle activation. This study demonstrates the variability of potential outcomes associated with the use of cTBS and further study on the mechanisms that underscore the methodology is required. Importantly, changes in motor cortical excitability may be an important determinant of speed of processing following high intensity stimulation.

The effects of global climate change on the cycling and processes of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the North Sea

The fate and cycling of two selected legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs), PCB 153 and gamma-HCH, in the North Sea in the 21st century have been modelled with combined hydrodynamic and fate and transport ocean models
(HAMSOM and FANTOM, respectively). To investigate the impact of climate variability on POPs in the North Sea in the 21st century, future scenario model runs for three 10-year periods to the year 2100 using plausible levels of both in
situ concentrations and atmospheric, river and open boundary inputs are performed. This slice mode under a moderate scenario (A1B) is sufficient to provide a basis for further analysis. For the HAMSOM and atmospheric forcing, results of the IPCC A1B (SRES) 21st century scenario are utilized, where surface forcing is provided by the REMO downscaling of the ECHAM5 global atmospheric model, and open boundary conditions are provided by the MPIOM global ocean model.
Dry gas deposition and volatilization of gamma-HCH increase in the future relative to the present by up to 20% (in the spring and summer months for deposition and in summer for volatilization). In the water column, total mass of
gamma-HCH and PCB 153 remain fairly steady in all three runs. In sediment,
gamma-HCH increases in the future runs, relative to the present, while PCB 153 in sediment decreases exponentially in all three runs, but even faster in the future, due to the increased number of storms, increased duration of gale wind conditions and increased water and air temperatures, all of which are the result of climate change. Annual net sinks exceed sources at the ends of all periods.
Overall, the model results indicate that the climate change scenarios considered here generally have a negligible influence on the simulated fate and transport of the two POPs in the North Sea, although the increased number and magnitude of storms in the 21st century will result in POP resuspension and ensuing revolatilization events. Trends in emissions from primary and secondary sources will remain the key driver of levels of these contaminants over time.

On sea level change in the North Sea influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation: local and remote steric effects

In this study, contributions of both local steric and remote baroclinic effects (i.e., steric variations external to the region of interest) to the inter-annual variability of winter sea level in the North Sea, with respect to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), for the period of 1953–2010 are investigated. On inter-annual time scales in this period, the NAO is significantly correlated to sea level variations in the North Sea only in the winter months (December–March), while its correlation to sea temperature over much of the North Sea is only significant in January and February. The discrepancy in sea level between observations and barotropic tide and surge models forced by tides and local atmospheric forcing, i.e., local atmospheric pressure effects and winds, in the present study are found to be consistent with previous studies. In the North Sea, local thermosteric effects caused by thermal expansion play a minor role on winter-mean NAO related sea level variability compared with atmospheric forcing. This is particularly true in the southeastern North Sea where water depths are mostly less than 25 m. Our calculations demonstrate that the discrepancy can be mostly explained by remote baroclinic effects, which appear as water mass exchanges on the continental shelf and are therefore only apparent in ocean bottom pressure. In the North Sea, NAO related sea level variations seem to be a hybrid of barotropic and baroclinic processes. Hence, they can only be adequately modelled with three-dimensional baroclinic ocean models that include contributions of baroclinic effects and large-scale atmospheric forcing external to the region of interest.

Belfast's Traditional Music Scene: A Narrative of Change and Development

Today Belfast is home to a vibrant traditional music scene. There have never been more sessions, concerts, classes or lectures devoted to traditional music in the north's biggest city. A complex system of promoters, performers and listeners has emerged in a city that is growing in confidence as it moves away from the dark days of the Troubles. But how does this system function? While Dowling (2014) has examined the development of traditional music-making in Belfast as it shifted from a pre-conflict to conflict ridden environment, little research has been carried out into the reasons behind the boom in traditional music-making in a post-conflict setting.

This paper examines the impact upon the traditional music scene of the first wave of students to arrive in Belfast after the signing of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998. These musicians, such as Donal O'Connor, Ruadhrai O'Kane and Aidan Walsh have had a lasting impact upon the lives of musicians native to Belfast, helping to bring traditional music to new venues and audiences.

The work of Belfast-based music schools with varying remits, such as Belfast Trad., and the Andersonstown School of Traditional and Contemporary Music, is also examined for the purpose of illustrating how both adults and young people are being educated about their musical heritage.

The impact of climate change on existing and emerging microbial threats across the food chain: an island of Ireland perspective

The Agri-Food and aquaculture industries are vital to the economy of the island of Ireland with a gross annual output that is expected to double in the future. Identifying and understanding the potential influences of the anticipated climate variables on microorganisms that cause foodborne diseases, and their impact on these local industries, are essential. Investigating and monitoring foodborne pathogens and factors that influence their growth, transmission, pathogenesis and survival will facilitate assessment of the stability, security and vulnerability of the continuously evolving and increasing complex local food supply chain.

Investigations Into the Performance of a Turbogenerated Biogas Engine During Speed Transients

Turbogenerating is a form of turbocompounding whereby a Turbogenerator is placed in the exhaust stream of an internal combustion engine. The Turbogenerator converts a portion of the expelled energy in the exhaust gas into electricity which can then be used to supplement the crankshaft power. Previous investigations have shown how the addition of a Turbogenerator can increase the system efficiency by up to 9%. However, these investigations pertain to the engine system operating at one fixed engine speed. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how the system and in particular the Turbogenerator operate during engine speed transients. On turbocharged engines, turbocharger lag is an issue. With the addition of a Turbogenerator, these issues can be somewhat alleviated. This is done by altering the speed at which the Turbogenerator operates during the engine’s speed transient. During the transients, the Turbogenerator can be thought to act in a similar manner to a variable geometry turbine where its speed can cause a change in the turbocharger turbine’s pressure ratio. This paper shows that by adding a Turbogenerator to a turbocharged engine the transient performance can be enhanced. This enhancement is shown by comparing the turbogenerated engine to a similar turbocharged engine. When comparing the two engines, it can be seen that the addition of a Turbogenerator can reduce the time taken to reach full power by up to 7% whilst at the same time, improve overall efficiency by 7.1% during the engine speed transient.

Regulatory Change and Capital Adjustment of US Credit Unions

We investigate the determinants of US credit union capital-to-assets ratios, before and after the implementation of the current capital adequacy regulatory framework in 2000. Capitalization varies pro-cyclically, and until the financial crisis credit unions classified as adequately capitalized or below followed a faster adjustment path than well capitalized credit unions. This pattern was reversed, however, in the aftermath of the crisis. The introduction of the PCA regulatory regime achieved a reduction in the proportion of credit unions classified as adequately capitalized or below that continued until the onset of the crisis. Since the crisis, the speed of recovery of credit unions in this category following an adverse capitalization shock was sharply reduced.

Emotions & social change in Ireland:Exploring habitus shift in liquid modernity

Drawing on insights from a range of disciplines, including philosophy, psychology, history, politics, but particularly sociology and sociological theory, this thesis explores the relationship between emotions and social change in late or 'liquid' modernity. It deploys the Republic of Ireland in the twentieth century as a case study. It argues that the Irish case in an ideal site for this research given the speed and scale of changes that have occurred there, particularly since the 1950's. The primary research question guiding the study is: What has been the effect of 'social change' in Ireland on the emotional lives of Irish people? The thesis is structured in three parts. Part one (chapters one to three) is primarily theoretical. It aims to develop a distinctive theoretical framework, process-relational realism, and argues that three concepts, properly treated, are central to answering the research question. These are emotion, power and (emotional) habitus. Part two is a bridging chapter, in which the empirical portion of the study, its design and method, are outlined. This study is based on a series of qualitative life-history interviews conducted using the Biographical Narrative Research Method. Part three is primarily empirical. The first chapter critically explores Bauman's concept of liquid modernity in relation to the Irish case and offers a short social history of the Irish twentieth century, which focuses on emotions and power. The second deploys two (ideal-type) interview cases to support the argument that Ireland experienced a habitus shift, from a relatively homogeneous to a heterogeneous habitus, and a corresponding shift from a relatively repressive emotional regime to a more expressive one, with significant effects on the emotional habitus. The final chapter takes a broader view of these changes, suggests that social change has been ambivalent, and outlines a new typology of emotional pathologies that the study suggests are characteristic of contemporary emotional life.

Long-term changes in oxygen depletion in a small temperate lake: effects of climate change and eutrophication

1. We analysed 41 years of data (1968–2008) from Blelham Tarn, U.K., to determine the consequences of eutrophication and climate warming on hypolimnetic dissolved oxygen (DO).
2. The establishment of thermal stratification was strongly related to the onset of DO depletion in the lower hypolimnion. As a result of a progressively earlier onset of stratification and later overturn, the duration of stratification increased by 38 ± 8 days over the 41 years.
3. The observed rate of volumetric hypolimnetic oxygen depletion (VHODobs) ranged from 0.131 to 0.252 g O2 m−3 per day and decreased significantly over the study period, despite the increase in the mean chlorophyll a (Chl a) concentration in the growing season. The vertical transport of DO represented from 0 to 30% of VHODobs, while adjustments for interannual differences in hypolimnetic temperature were less important, ranging from −11 to 9% of VHODobs.
4. The mean wind speed during May made the strongest significant contribution to the variation in VHODobs. VHODobs adjusted for the vertical transport of DO and hypolimnetic temperature differences, VHODadj, was significantly related to the upper mixed layer Chl a concentration during spring.
5. Hypolimnetic anoxia (HA) ranged from 27 to 168 days per year and increased significantly over time, which undoubtedly had negative ecological consequences for the lake.
6. In similar small temperate lakes, the negative effects of eutrophication on hypolimnetic DO are likely to be exacerbated by changes in lake thermal structure brought about by a warming climate, which may undermine management efforts to alleviate the effects of anthropogenic eutrophication.

Regional and urban air quality modelling under a climate change scenario

The better understanding of the interactions between climate change and air quality is an emerging priority for research and policy. Climate change will bring changes in the climate system, which will affect the concentration and dispersion of air pollutants. The main objective of the current study is to assess the impacts of climate change on air quality in 2050 over Portugal and Porto urban area. First, an evaluation and characterization of the air quality over mainland Portugal was performed for the period between 2002 and 2012. The results show that NO2, PM10 and O3 are the critical pollutants in Portugal. Also, the influence of meteorology on O3, NO2 and PM10 levels was investigate in the national main urban areas (Porto and Lisboa) and was verified that O3 has a statistically significant relationship with temperature in most of the components. The results also indicate that emission control strategies are primary regulators for NO2 and PM10 levels. After, understanding the national air quality problems and the influence that meteorology had in the historical air quality levels, the air quality modelling system WRF-CAMx was tested and the required inputs for the simulations were prepared to fulfil the main goal of this work. For the required air quality modelling inputs, an Emission Projections under RCP scenarios (EmiPro-RCP) model was developed to assist the estimation of future emission inventories for GHG and common air pollutants. Also, the current emissions were estimated for Portugal with a higher detailed disaggregation to improve the performance of the air quality simulations. The air quality modelling system WRF/CAMx was tested and evaluated over Portugal and Porto urban area and the results point out that is an adequate tool for the analysis of air quality under climate change. For this purpose, regional simulations of air quality during historical period and future (2045-2050) were conducted with CAMx version 6.0 to evaluate the impacts of simulated future climate and anthropogenic emission projections on air quality over the study area. The climate and the emission projections were produced under the RCP8.5 scenario. The results from the simulations point out, that if the anthropogenic emissions keep the same in 2050, the concentrations of NO2, PM10 and O3 will increase in Portugal. When, besides the climate change effects, is consider the projected anthropogenic emissions the annual mean concentrations of NO2 decrease significantly in Portugal and Porto urban area, and on the contrary the annual mean PM10 concentrations increases in Portugal and decrease in Porto urban area. The O3 results are mainly caused by the reduction of ozone precursors, getting the higher reductions in urban areas and increases in the surrounding areas. All the analysis performed for both simulations for Porto urban area support that, for PM10 and O3, there will be an increase in the occurrence of extreme values, surpassing the annual legislated parameters and having more daily exceedances. This study constitutes an innovative scientific tool to help in future air quality management in order to mitigate future climate change impacts on air quality.