Efficient accommodation of local minima in watershed model calibration

The Gauss-Marquardt-Levenberg (GML) method of computer-based parameter estimation, in common with other gradient-based approaches, suffers from the drawback that it may become trapped in local objective function minima, and thus report optimized parameter values that are not, in fact, optimized at all. This can seriously degrade its utility in the calibration of watershed models where local optima abound. Nevertheless, the method also has advantages, chief among these being its model-run efficiency, and its ability to report useful information on parameter sensitivities and covariances as a by-product of its use. It is also easily adapted to maintain this efficiency in the face of potential numerical problems (that adversely affect all parameter estimation methodologies) caused by parameter insensitivity and/or parameter correlation. The present paper presents two algorithmic enhancements to the GML method that retain its strengths, but which overcome its weaknesses in the face of local optima. Using the first of these methods an intelligent search for better parameter sets is conducted in parameter subspaces of decreasing dimensionality when progress of the parameter estimation process is slowed either by numerical instability incurred through problem ill-posedness, or when a local objective function minimum is encountered. The second methodology minimizes the chance of successive GML parameter estimation runs finding the same objective function minimum by starting successive runs at points that are maximally removed from previous parameter trajectories. As well as enhancing the ability of a GML-based method to find the global objective function minimum, the latter technique can also be used to find the locations of many non-global optima (should they exist) in parameter space. This can provide a useful means of inquiring into the well-posedness of a parameter estimation problem, and for detecting the presence of bimodal parameter and predictive probability distributions. The new methodologies are demonstrated by calibrating a Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) model against a time series of daily flows. Comparison with the SCE-UA method in this calibration context demonstrates a high level of comparative model run efficiency for the new method. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evolving noisy oscillatory dynamics in genetic regulatory networks

We introduce a genetic programming (GP) approach for evolving genetic networks that demonstrate desired dynamics when simulated as a discrete stochastic process. Our representation of genetic networks is based on a biochemical reaction model including key elements such as transcription, translation and post-translational modifications. The stochastic, reaction-based GP system is similar but not identical with algorithmic chemistries. We evolved genetic networks with noisy oscillatory dynamics. The results show the practicality of evolving particular dynamics in gene regulatory networks when modelled with intrinsic noise.

Inference and optimization of real edges on sparse graphs:A statistical physics perspective

Inference and optimization of real-value edge variables in sparse graphs are studied using the Bethe approximation and replica method of statistical physics. Equilibrium states of general energy functions involving a large set of real edge variables that interact at the network nodes are obtained in various cases. When applied to the representative problem of network resource allocation, efficient distributed algorithms are also devised. Scaling properties with respect to the network connectivity and the resource availability are found, and links to probabilistic Bayesian approximation methods are established. Different cost measures are considered and algorithmic solutions in the various cases are devised and examined numerically. Simulation results are in full agreement with the theory. © 2007 The American Physical Society.

Differences between theoretical predictions and operational performance in a stock control application

Over the past decade, several experienced Operational Researchers have advanced the view that the theoretical aspects of model building have raced ahead of the ability of people to use them. Consequently, the impact of Operational Research on commercial organisations and the public sector is limited, and many systems fail to achieve their anticipated benefits in full. The primary objective of this study is to examine a complex interactive Stock Control system, and identify the reasons for the differences between the theoretical expectations and the operational performance. The methodology used is to hypothesise all the possible factors which could cause a divergence between theory and practice, and to evaluate numerically the effect each of these factors has on two main control indices - Service Level and Average Stock Value. Both analytical and empirical methods are used, and simulation is employed extensively. The factors are divided into two main categories for analysis - theoretical imperfections in the model, and the usage of the system by Buyers. No evidence could be found in the literature of any previous attempts to place the differences between theory and practice in a system in quantitative perspective nor, more specifically, to study the effects of Buyer/computer interaction in a Stock Control system. The study reveals that, in general, the human factors influencing performance are of a much higher order of magnitude than the theoretical factors, thus providing objective evidence to support the original premise. The most important finding is that, by judicious intervention into an automatic stock control algorithm, it is possible for Buyers to produce results which not only attain but surpass the algorithmic predictions. However, the complexity and behavioural recalcitrance of these systems are such that an innately numerate, enquiring type of Buyer needs to be inducted to realise the performance potential of the overall man/computer system.

Competition for shortest paths on sparse graphs

Optimal paths connecting randomly selected network nodes and fixed routers are studied analytically in the presence of a nonlinear overlap cost that penalizes congestion. Routing becomes more difficult as the number of selected nodes increases and exhibits ergodicity breaking in the case of multiple routers. The ground state of such systems reveals nonmonotonic complex behaviors in average path length and algorithmic convergence, depending on the network topology, and densities of communicating nodes and routers. A distributed linearly scalable routing algorithm is also devised. © 2012 American Physical Society.

Knowledge elicitation and knowledge representation in a large domain with multiple experts

This paper describes the knowledge elicitation and knowledge representation aspects of a system being developed to help with the design and maintenance of relational data bases. The size algorithmic components. In addition, the domain contains multiple experts, but any given expert's knowledge of this large domain is only partial. The paper discusses the methods and techniques used for knowledge elicitation, which was based on a "broad and shallow" approach at first, moving to a "narrow and deep" one later, and describes the models used for knowledge representation, which were based on a layered "generic and variants" approach. © 1995.

Predicting class I major histocompatibility complex (MHC) binders using multivariate statistics:comparison of discriminant analysis and multiple linear regression

The accurate in silico identification of T-cell epitopes is a critical step in the development of peptide-based vaccines, reagents, and diagnostics. It has a direct impact on the success of subsequent experimental work. Epitopes arise as a consequence of complex proteolytic processing within the cell. Prior to being recognized by T cells, an epitope is presented on the cell surface as a complex with a major histocompatibility complex (MHC) protein. A prerequisite therefore for T-cell recognition is that an epitope is also a good MHC binder. Thus, T-cell epitope prediction overlaps strongly with the prediction of MHC binding. In the present study, we compare discriminant analysis and multiple linear regression as algorithmic engines for the definition of quantitative matrices for binding affinity prediction. We apply these methods to peptides which bind the well-studied human MHC allele HLA-A*0201. A matrix which results from combining results of the two methods proved powerfully predictive under cross-validation. The new matrix was also tested on an external set of 160 binders to HLA-A*0201; it was able to recognize 135 (84%) of them.

On Structural Resource of Monotone Recognition

Algorithmic resources are considered for elaboration and identification of monotone functions and some alternate structures are brought, which are more explicit in sense of structure and quantities and which can serve as elements of practical identification algorithms. General monotone recognition is considered on multi- dimensional grid structure. Particular reconstructing problem is reduced to the monotone recognition through the multi-dimensional grid partitioning into the set of binary cubes.

Logic Based Pattern Recognition - Ontology Content (2)

Logic based Pattern Recognition extends the well known similarity models, where the distance measure is the base instrument for recognition. Initial part (1) of current publication in iTECH-06 reduces the logic based recognition models to the reduced disjunctive normal forms of partially defined Boolean functions. This step appears as a way to alternative pattern recognition instruments through combining metric and logic hypotheses and features, leading to studies of logic forms, hypotheses, hierarchies of hypotheses and effective algorithmic solutions. Current part (2) provides probabilistic conclusions on effective recognition by logic means in a model environment of binary attributes.

Dynamic Ontologies in Information Security Systems

Different types of ontologies and knowledge or metaknowledge connected to them are considered and analyzed aiming at realization in contemporary information security systems (ISS) and especially the case of intrusion detection systems (IDS) or intrusion prevention systems (IPS). Human-centered methods INCONSISTENCY, FUNNEL, CALEIDOSCOPE and CROSSWORD are algorithmic or data-driven methods based on ontologies. All of them interact on a competitive principle ‘survival of the fittest’. They are controlled by a Synthetic MetaMethod SMM. It is shown that the data analysis frequently needs an act of creation especially if it is applied to knowledge-poor environments. It is shown that human-centered methods are very suitable for resolutions in case, and often they are based on the usage of dynamic ontologies

On the Vertex Separation of Cactus Graphs

This paper is part of a work in progress whose goal is to construct a fast, practical algorithm for the vertex separation (VS) of cactus graphs. We prove a \main theorem for cacti", a necessary and sufficient condition for the VS of a cactus graph being k. Further, we investigate the ensuing ramifications that prevent the construction of an algorithm based on that theorem only.

On the Vertex Separation of Maximal Outerplanar Graphs

We investigate the NP-complete problem Vertex Separation (VS) on Maximal Outerplanar Graphs (mops). We formulate and prove a “main theorem for mops”, a necessary and sufficient condition for the vertex separation of a mop being k. The main theorem reduces the vertex separation of mops to a special kind of stretchability, one that we call affixability, of submops.

Operating Model of Knowledge Quantum Engineering for Decision-Making in Conditions of Indeterminacy

The operating model of knowledge quantum engineering for identification and prognostic decision- making in conditions of α-indeterminacy is suggested in the article. The synthesized operating model solves three basic tasks: Аt-task to formalize tk-knowledge; Вt-task to recognize (identify) objects according to observed results; Сt-task to extrapolate (prognosticate) the observed results. Operating derivation of identification and prognostic decisions using authentic different-level algorithmic knowledge quantum (using tRAKZ-method) assumes synthesis of authentic knowledge quantum database (BtkZ) using induction operator as a system of implicative laws, and then using deduction operator according to the observed tk-knowledge and BtkZ a derivation of identification or prognostic decisions in a form of new tk-knowledge.

Logic Based Pattern Recognition - Ontology Content (1)

* The research is supported partly by INTAS: 04-77-7173 project, http://www.intas.be

Data Flow Analysis and the Linear Programming Model

* The research is supported partly by INTAS: 04-77-7173 project, http://www.intas.be