Coupling ensemble weather predictions based on TIGGE database with Grid-Xinanjiang model for flood forecast

The incorporation of numerical weather predictions (NWP) into a flood forecasting system can increase forecast lead times from a few hours to a few days. A single NWP forecast from a single forecast centre, however, is insufficient as it involves considerable non-predictable uncertainties and lead to a high number of false alarms. The availability of global ensemble numerical weather prediction systems through the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble' (TIGGE) offers a new opportunity for flood forecast. The Grid-Xinanjiang distributed hydrological model, which is based on the Xinanjiang model theory and the topographical information of each grid cell extracted from the Digital Elevation Model (DEM), is coupled with ensemble weather predictions based on the TIGGE database (CMC, CMA, ECWMF, UKMO, NCEP) for flood forecast. This paper presents a case study using the coupled flood forecasting model on the Xixian catchment (a drainage area of 8826 km2) located in Henan province, China. A probabilistic discharge is provided as the end product of flood forecast. Results show that the association of the Grid-Xinanjiang model and the TIGGE database gives a promising tool for an early warning of flood events several days ahead.

Tracking the uncertainty in flood alerts driven by grand ensemble weather predictions

The incorporation of numerical weather predictions (NWP) into a flood warning system can increase forecast lead times from a few hours to a few days. A single NWP forecast from a single forecast centre, however, is insufficient as it involves considerable non-predictable uncertainties and can lead to a high number of false or missed warnings. Weather forecasts using multiple NWPs from various weather centres implemented on catchment hydrology can provide significantly improved early flood warning. The availability of global ensemble weather prediction systems through the ‘THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble’ (TIGGE) offers a new opportunity for the development of state-of-the-art early flood forecasting systems. This paper presents a case study using the TIGGE database for flood warning on a meso-scale catchment (4062 km2) located in the Midlands region of England. For the first time, a research attempt is made to set up a coupled atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic cascade system driven by the TIGGE ensemble forecasts. A probabilistic discharge and flood inundation forecast is provided as the end product to study the potential benefits of using the TIGGE database. The study shows that precipitation input uncertainties dominate and propagate through the cascade chain. The current NWPs fall short of representing the spatial precipitation variability on such a comparatively small catchment, which indicates need to improve NWPs resolution and/or disaggregating techniques to narrow down the spatial gap between meteorology and hydrology. The spread of discharge forecasts varies from centre to centre, but it is generally large and implies a significant level of uncertainties. Nevertheless, the results show the TIGGE database is a promising tool to forecast flood inundation, comparable with that driven by raingauge observation.

Ectonucleotidase activities are altered in serum and platelets of L-NAME-treated rats

It is well known that hypertension is closely associated to the development of vascular diseases and that the inhibition of nitric oxide biosynthesis by administration of N omega-Nitro-L-arginine methyl ester hydrochloride (L-NAME) leads to arterial hypertension. In the vascular system, extracellular purines mediate several effects: thus, ADP is the most important platelet agonist and recruiting agent, while adenosine, all end product Of nucleotide metabolism, is a vasodilator and inhibitor of platelet activation and recruitment. Members of several families of enzymes, known as ectonucleotidases, including E-NTPDases (ecto-nucleoside triphosphate diphosphohydrolase), E-NPP (ecto-nucleotide pyrophosphatase/phosphodiesterase) and 5`-nucleotidase are able to hydrolyze extracellular nucleotides until their respective nucleosides. We investigated the ectonuclectidase activities of serum and platelets from rats made hypertensive by oral administration of L-NAME (30 mg/kg/day for 14 days or 30 mg/kg/day for 14 days Plus 7 days of L-NAME washout, in the drinking water) in comparison to normotensive control rats. L-NAME promoted a significant rise in systolic blood pressure from 112 +/- 9.8 to 158 +/- 23 mmHg. The left ventricle weight index (LVWI) was increased in rats treated with L-NAME for 14 days when compared to control animals. In Serum samples, ATP, ADP and AMP hydrolysis were reduced by about 27%, 36% and 27%, respectively. In platelets, the decrease in ATP, ADP and AMP hydrolysis Was approximately 27%, 24% and 32%, respectively. All parameters recovered after 7 days of L-NAME washout. HPLC demonstrated a reduction in ADP, AMP and hypoxanthine levels by about 64%, 69% and 87%, respectively. In this study, we showed that ectonucleotidase activities are decreased in serum and platelets from L-NAME-treated rats, which should represent an additional risk for the development of hypertension. The modulation of ectonucleotidase activities may represent an approach to antihypertensive therapy via inhibition of spontaneous platelet activation and recruitment, as well as thrombus formation. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Análise da desverticalização e das condições favoráveis à produção "in house"

Este trabalho procura compreender um ambiente de negócios bastante específico. As empresas, diante dos fenômenos da globalização e do crescimento das exigências impostas pelos consumidores (produtos melhores a preços mais baixos), buscarão diversas soluções para enfrentar estes desafios. Soluções para otimizar as suas redes de suprimentos serão uma das possíveis respostas para este problema. As redes de suprimentos, quanto mais eficazes, estarão agregando mais valor ao produto final causando um impacto mínimo nos custos do produto, e terão uma papel importante na estratégia da empresa para vencer este desafio. Ao longo dessa dissertação serão avaliadas as relações existentes entre cliente e fornecedor e focadas algumas variáveis que influenciam este relacionamento. Através da análise das estratégias de verticalização, estaremos avaliando outras possibilidades de fornecimento que possam ser mais atraentes para as empresas, no que diz respeito à gerência de sua rede de fornecedores. O trabalho está centrado na análise da estratégia de verticalização e como são criadas as condições que favorecem a desverticalização, conduzindo a empresa para a solução de fornecimento através de uma produção "in house". O setor industrial será tomado como exemplo deste tipo de relacionamento, mais especificamente, o segmento de produção de embalagens plásticas. A produção "in house" , como será descrito mais detalhadamente adiante, se estabelece da seguinte forma: uma unidade produtiva de um fornecedor estratégico é construída dentro do ambiente físico do cliente. Desse local, o fornecedor supre as necessidades do cliente de um ou diversos itens necessários para a realização da sua atividade industrial. Diversas questões serão exploradas neste trabalho, dentre elas, em que situações vale a pena manter uma operação integrada verticalmente ou optar pela terceirização desta operação, que um dia foi verticalizada? Sob que condições esta seria uma boa solução para o fornecimento de insumos básicos para a produção? Este trabalho se desenvolverá a partir de uma pesquisa bibliográfica assim como de um trabalho de campo, envolvendo a análise de diversas situações reais. vi Como identificar se a verticalização de um segmento oferecerá as vantagens esperadas? Quais são os principais fatores que devemos levar em conta para esta análise? Que tipo de modelo de desverticalização pode ser o mais adequado para a empresa cliente? Que medidas podem ser promovidas para se incrementar uma relação com o fornecedor "in house" ? Este estudo apresenta algumas propostas para responder às questões acima.

Revestimentos a base de Ta/Al2O3 produzidos por aspersão térmica sobre substrato metálico

Metal substrates were coated by thermal spraying plasma torch, they were positioned at a distance of 4 and 5 cm from the nozzle exit of the plasma jet. The starting materials were used for deposition of tantalum oxide powder and aluminium. These two materials were mixed and ground into high-energy mill, then immersed in the torch for the production of alumina coating infused with particles of tantalum with nano and micrometric size. The spraying equipment used is a plasma torch arc not transferred, which operating in the range of 250 A and 80 V, was able to produce enough heat to ignite aluminothermic between Ta2O5 and aluminum. Upon reaching the plasma jet, the mixing powders react with the heat of the blaze, which provides sufficient energy for melting aluminum particles. This energy is transferred through mechanisms of self-propagating to the oxide, beginning a reduction reaction, which then hits on the surface of the substrate and forms a coating on which a composite is formed by a junction metal - ceramic (Ta +Al2O3). The phases and quantification of each were obtained respectively by X-ray diffraction and the Rietveld method. Morphology by scanning electron microscopy and chemical analysis by energy dispersive spectroscopy EDS. It was also performed measurements of the substrate roughness, Vickers microhardness measurements in sprays and determination of the electron temperature of the plasma jet by optical emission spectroscopy EEO. The results confirmed the expectation generated around the end product of spraying the mixture Ta2O5 + Al, both in the formation of nano-sized particles and in their final form. The electron excitation temperature was consistent with the purpose of work, in addition, the thermodynamic temperature was efficient for the reduction process of Ta2O5. The electron excitation temperature showed values of 3000, 4500 and 8000 K for flows10, 20 and 30 l / min respectively, these values were taken at the nozzle exit of the plasma jet. The thermodynamic temperature around 1200 ° C, was effective in the reduction process of Ta2O5

Old beagle dogs have lower faecal concentrations of some fermentation products and lower peripheral lymphocyte counts than young adult beagles

The effects of age on microbiota composition, gut fermentation end-product formation and peripheral lymphocyte numbers were compared between old and young adult Beagle dogs fed four kibble diets differing in yeast cell wall contents. The experiment had a double 4 x 4 Latin square design, one with four mature dogs (4 years old) and the other with four old dogs (10 years old), with four replicates (diets) per dog. In each period a 15d adaptation period preceded a 5d total collection of faeces for the digestibility trial. on day 21, fresh faecal samples were collected for the determination of bacterial enumeration, pH, biogenic amine and short-chain fatty acid. Flow cytometry was used for immunophenotypic evaluation. Dogs were fed four kibble diets with similar composition with 0, 0.15, 0.30 and 0.45% of yeast cell wall (as-fed), respectively. Data were evaluated using general linear models of Statistical Analysis Systems statistical software (P<0.05). No evidence of a difference in faecal bacteria counts between ages was found (total aerobes, total anaerobes, Bifidobacterium, Lactobacillus, Clostridium and Escherichia coli: P. 0.15). Faecal concentrations of butyrate, histamine, agmatine and spermine were lower (P <= 0.05) and faecal pH was higher (P=0.03) in older dogs than in mature adult dogs, suggesting an alteration in bacterial metabolic activity, or in the rate of intestinal absorption of these compounds. Concentrations of T-lymphocytes, T-cytotoxic lymphocytes and B-lymphocytes were also lower (P <= 0.01) in older dogs than in mature adult dogs. The study confirmed alterations in peripheral lymphocytes and revealed a reduced concentration of some fermentation end products in the colon of old dogs.

Estudo fitoquímico de goiaba (Psidium guajava L.) com potencial antioxidante para o desenvolvimento de formulação fitocosmética

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Use of three rapid detection systems to evaluate the prevalence and dissemination of Salmonella in a Brazilian poultry slaughterhouse

Prevalence and dissemination of Salmonella in a Brazilian poultry slaughterhouse were evaluated by three rapid detection systems (SS/SV(TM), VICAM, OSRT(TM), Unipath/Oxoid, and REVEAL(TM), Neogen), plus the conventional procedure. The carcasses were sampled after bleeding (P1), defeathering (P2), evisceration (P3), washing (P4), chilling (P5) and the packaged end-product (P6). In the first set of carcasses, the Salmonella incidence determined by the conventional method was 38.3% and 22.5% by SS/SV(TM). In the set for evaluation of OSRT(TM), the number of positive samples was the same detected by the cultural procedure (49.0%). In the third set, the positivity by the conventional procedure was 33.3%, and 5.0% by REVEAL(TM). The comparisons of positives in the first and third sets of carcasses were significantly different (P < 0.05). The positivity for Salmonella, in carcasses at P1 to P6, as determined by at least one of the methods, was 47.5%, 47.5%, 32.5%, 30.0%, 30.0% and 37.7%, respectively.

Growth and photosynthetic down-regulation in Coffea arabica in response to restricted root volume

Coffee (Coffea arabica L.) plants were grown in small (3-L), medium (10-L) and large (24-L) pots for 115 or 165 d after transplanting (DAT), which allowed different degrees of root restriction. Effects of altered source : sink ratio were evaluated in order to explore possible stomatal and non-stomatal mechanisms of photosynthetic down-regulation. Increasing root restriction brought about large and general reductions in plant growth associated with a rising root : shoot ratio. Treatments did not affect leaf water potential or leaf nutrient status, with the exception of N content, which dropped significantly with increasing root restriction even though an adequate N supply was available. Photosynthesis was severely reduced when plants were grown in small pots; this was largely associated with non-stomatal factors, such as decreased Rubisco activity. At 165DAT contents of hexose, sucrose, and amino acids decreased in plants grown in smaller pots, while those of starch and hexose-P increased in plants grown in smaller pots. Photosynthetic rates were negatively correlated with the ratio of hexose to free amino acids, but not with hexose content. Activities of acid invertase, sucrose synthase, sucrose-P synthase, fructose-1,6- bisphosphatase, ADP-glucose pyrophosphorylase, starch phosphorylase, glyceraldehyde-3-P dehydrogenase, PPi : fructose-6-P 1-phosphotransferase and NADP : glyceraldehyde-3-P dehydrogenase all decreased with severe root restriction. Glycerate-3-P : Pi and glucose-6-P : fructose-6-P ratios decreased accordingly. Photosynthetic down-regulation was unlikely to have been associated directly with an end-product limitation, but rather with decreases in Rubisco. Such a down-regulation was largely a result of N deficiency caused by growing coffee plants in small pots.

Reintegração dos finos provenientes do beneficiamento de argila no processo de produção de revestimentos via seca

Na região de Rio Claro (SP), localiza-se o Pólo Cerâmico de Santa Gertrudes, responsável por cerca de 50% da produção nacional de revestimentos. Durante o beneficiamento da argila e preparação da massa, cerca de 2 a 3% argila fina é colocada em suspensão no ar, sendo quase toda retida nos filtros de manga. Esse material fino, por problemas de homogeneização ou tecnológico, representa perda de material e se constitui em um potencial agente de contaminação do ar e da água, necessitando ser armazenado. A presente pesquisa buscou viabilizar o aproveitamento do pó retido nos filtros, no próprio processo, através da granulação da massa por aspersão de barbotina preparada com o pó. Investigaram-se a composição ideal da barbotina e a influência dessa metodologia no produto final, comparando a massa granulada por aspersão com a massa-padrão.

Whole-body protein turnover in malnourished patients with child class B and C cirrhosis on diets low to high in protein energy

The purpose of this study was to determine the rate of whole-body protein turnover in moderately and severely alcoholic, malnourished, cirrhotic patients fed with different amounts of protein or energy. Six male patients (Child classes B and C) and four age- and sex-matched healthy control subjects were studied for 18 d in fasting and feeding states; a single oral dose of [N-15]glycine was used as a tracer and urinary ammonia was the end product. The kinetic study showed that patients had higher protein catabolism while fasting (patients: 3.14 +/- 1.2 g of lean body mass/9 h; controls: 1.8 +/- 0.3 g of lean body mass/9 h: P<0.02). Although not statistically significant, protein catabolism (grams of lean body mass/9 h) was lower with the hyperproreic/hyperenergetic diet when compared with fasting. Nitrogen retention was consistent with the lower protein-catabolism rate; a statistically significant increase in nitrogen balance was observed when patients were fed with the hyperproteic/hyperenergetic diet compared with fasting 14.3 +/- 3.2 g of nitrogen/d and -2.2 +/- 1.9 g of nitrogen/d, respectively; P < 0.01). These data indicate that Child class B and C cirrhotic patients are hypercatabolic and that Long-term nutritional intervention with a hyperproteic/hyperenergetic diet is likely needed to improve their clinical and nutritional status. Nutrition 2001;17:239-242. (C) Elsevier B.V. 2001.

Protein-energy status and 15N-glycine kinetic study of child a cirrhotic patients fed low- to high-protein energy diets

In five male cirrhotic patients (Child A) and in four age- and sex-matched healthy control subjects, whole-body protein turnover was measured using a single oral dose of N-15-glycine as a tracer and urinary ammonia as end product. Subjects were studied in the fasting and feeding state, with different levels of protein and energy intake. The patients were underweight and presented lower plasma transthyretin and retinol-binding protein levels. When compared with controls, the kinetic studies showed patients to be hypometabolic in the fasting (Do) state and with the control diet [D-1 = (0.85 g of protein/154 kJ). kg(-1). day(-1)]. However, when corrected by body weight, the kinetic differences between groups disappeared, whereas the N-retention in the feeding state showed better results for the patients due mainly to their efficient breakdown decrease. When fed high-level protein or energy diets [D-2 = (0.9 g protein/195 kJ) and D-3 = (1.56 g protein/158 kJ). kg(-1). day(-1)], the patients showed D-0 = D-1 = D-2 < D-3 for N-flux and (D-0 = D-1) < D-3 (D-2 is intermediary) for protein synthesis. Thus, the present data suggest that the remaining mass of the undernourished mild cirrhotic patients has fairly good protein synthesis activity and also that protein, rather than energy intake, would be the limiting factor for increasing their whole-body protein synthesis.

Germination and anaerobic metabolism of seeds of Tabebuia cassinoides (Lam.) DC subjected to flooding and anoxia

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Utilização do metabolismo protéico ( 15N-glicina) na detecção precoce de agravamento da atividade da doença em pacientes portadores de retocolite ulcerativa inespecífica

Disease activity was assessed in 10 (five males and five females) ulcerative colitis patients through the following parameters: clinical, laboratory, sigmoidoscopic and histological. Protein metabolism was also assessed with 15N-glycine and urinary ammonia as end product. Only one patient had exacerbation of the disease two months after the study started. This patient presented in the beginning of the study protein synthesis and breakdown of 4.51 and 3.47 g protein/kg/day, respectively, values higher than all other patients, showing an hypermetabolic state, suggesting an increase of the disease activity. However, this increase was not detected by others indicators and indexes utilised. These data allow to suggest the hypothesis that protein metabolism predicts precociously the exacerbation of disease activity in ulcerative colitis patients.

WEDGE - ferramenta on-line de gerenciamento, análise e otimização de processos

This article summarizes the implementation of an online process management, analysis, and optimization tool at Lwarcel Celulose e Papel, within the PIMS and MES philosophy, for process indicator implementation, understanding of variables, and their cause-effect relationship in the process, as well as the achievement of operational benchmarking. The process analysis, by means of statistical tools, allied to mathematical modeling algorithms used in Wedge, makes it possible to identify the relevant information for process and quality improvement with regard to efficiency, equipment maintenance, productivity, and uniformity of the end product quality, reduction of unwanted shutdowns, and quicker resolution of process problems.