Adaptive learning in agents behaviour: a framework for electricity markets simulation

Electricity markets are complex environments with very particular characteristics. A critical issue regarding these specific characteristics concerns the constant changes they are subject to. This is a result of the electricity markets’ restructuring, which was performed so that the competitiveness could be increased, but it also had exponential implications in the increase of the complexity and unpredictability in those markets scope. The constant growth in markets unpredictability resulted in an amplified need for market intervenient entities in foreseeing market behaviour. The need for understanding the market mechanisms and how the involved players’ interaction affects the outcomes of the markets, contributed to the growth of usage of simulation tools. Multi-agent based software is particularly well fitted to analyze dynamic and adaptive systems with complex interactions among its constituents, such as electricity markets. This dissertation presents ALBidS – Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System, a multiagent system created to provide decision support to market negotiating players. This system is integrated with the MASCEM electricity market simulator, so that its advantage in supporting a market player can be tested using cases based on real markets’ data. ALBidS considers several different methodologies based on very distinct approaches, to provide alternative suggestions of which are the best actions for the supported player to perform. The approach chosen as the players’ actual action is selected by the employment of reinforcement learning algorithms, which for each different situation, simulation circumstances and context, decides which proposed action is the one with higher possibility of achieving the most success. Some of the considered approaches are supported by a mechanism that creates profiles of competitor players. These profiles are built accordingly to their observed past actions and reactions when faced with specific situations, such as success and failure. The system’s context awareness and simulation circumstances analysis, both in terms of results performance and execution time adaptation, are complementary mechanisms, which endow ALBidS with further adaptation and learning capabilities.

ECG denoising based on adaptive signal processing technique

An Electrocardiogram (ECG) monitoring system deals with several challenges related with noise sources. The main goal of this text was the study of Adaptive Signal Processing Algorithms for ECG noise reduction when applied to real signals. This document presents an adaptive ltering technique based on Least Mean Square (LMS) algorithm to remove the artefacts caused by electromyography (EMG) and power line noise into ECG signal. For this experiments it was used real noise signals, mainly to observe the di erence between real noise and simulated noise sources. It was obtained very good results due to the ability of noise removing that can be reached with this technique. A recolha de sinais electrocardiogr a cos (ECG) sofre de diversos problemas relacionados com ru dos. O objectivo deste trabalho foi o estudo de algoritmos adaptativos para processamento digital de sinal, para redu c~ao de ru do em sinais ECG reais. Este texto apresenta uma t ecnica de redu c~ao de ru do baseada no algoritmo Least Mean Square (LMS) para remo c~ao de ru dos causados quer pela actividade muscular (EMG) quer por ru dos causados pela rede de energia el ectrica. Para as experiencias foram utilizados ru dos reais, principalmente para aferir a diferen ca de performance do algoritmo entre os sinais reais e os simulados. Foram conseguidos bons resultados, essencialmente devido as excelentes caracter sticas que esta t ecnica tem para remover ru dos.

Effectiveness of see-and-treat for approaching pre-invasive lesions of uterine cervix

OBJECTIVE: To compare the effectiveness between the see-and-treat (S&T) approach and the conventional one (with prior biopsy) for squamous intraepithelial lesions of uterine cervix. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted with 900 nonpregnant women with cytology suggestive of high grade squamous intraepithelial lesions in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Southeastern Brazil, between 1998 and 2004. The S&T approach consists of a large loop excision of the transformation zone procedure and is recommended when cytology is suggestive of high grade squamous intraepithelial lesion, satisfactory colposcopy with abnormalities compatible with the suspected cytological results, and the lesion is limited to the ectocervix or extends up to one centimeter of the endocervical canal. A subgroup of 336 patients whose colposcopy was considered satisfactory was analyzed, and they were divided into two groups for comparison: patients treated without prior biopsy (n = 288) and patients treated after a biopsy showing high grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (n = 48). Patients who were not treated or only treated more than a year later after recruitment at the colposcopy unit were considered dropouts. RESULTS: Of patients recruited during the study period, 71 were not treated or were only treated for at least a year. The overall dropout rate was 7.9% (95% CI: 6.1;9.7). Mean time elapsed between patient recruitment and treatment was 17.5 days in the S&T group and 102.5 days in the prior biopsy group. Dropout rates were 1.4% (95% CI: 0.04;2.7) and 5.% (95% CI: 0;12.3), respectively (p=0.07). The proportion of overtreated cases (negative histology) in the S&T group was 2.0% (95% CI: 0.4;3.6). CONCLUSIONS: The difference in the mean time elapsed between patient recruitment and treatment indicates that S&T is a time-saving approach The proportion of negative cases from using the S&T approach can be regarded as low.

Os serviços partilhados no âmbito dos grupos económicos e sua avaliação no contexto da qualidade da informação financeira

Mestrado em Contabilidade

Parallel real-time support for distributed adaptive embedded applications

Real-time embedded applications require to process large amounts of data within small time windows. Parallelize and distribute workloads adaptively is suitable solution for computational demanding applications. The purpose of the Parallel Real-Time Framework for distributed adaptive embedded systems is to guarantee local and distributed processing of real-time applications. This work identifies some promising research directions for parallel/distributed real-time embedded applications.

Service offloading in adaptive real-time systems

Smartphones and other internet enabled devices are now common on our everyday life, thus unsurprisingly a current trend is to adapt desktop PC applications to execute on them. However, since most of these applications have quality of service (QoS) requirements, their execution on resource-constrained mobile devices presents several challenges. One solution to support more stringent applications is to offload some of the applications’ services to surrogate devices nearby. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an adaptable offloading mechanism which takes into account the QoS requirements of the application being executed (particularly its real-time requirements), whilst allowing offloading services to several surrogate nodes. We also present how the proposed computing model can be implemented in an Android environment

Hybrid adaptive control of a dragonfly model

Dragonflies show unique and superior flight performances than most of other insect species and birds. They are equipped with two pairs of independently controlled wings granting an unmatchable flying performance and robustness. In this paper, it is presented an adaptive scheme controlling a nonlinear model inspired in a dragonfly-like robot. It is proposed a hybrid adaptive (HA) law for adjusting the parameters analyzing the tracking error. At the current stage of the project it is considered essential the development of computational simulation models based in the dynamics to test whether strategies or algorithms of control, parts of the system (such as different wing configurations, tail) as well as the complete system. The performance analysis proves the superiority of the HA law over the direct adaptive (DA) method in terms of faster and improved tracking and parameter convergence.

Effectiveness of motivational interviewing at improving oral health: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE : To analyze the effectiveness of motivational interviewing (MI) at improving oral health behaviors (oral hygiene habits, sugar consumption, dental services utilization or use of fluoride) and dental clinical outcomes (dental plaque, dental caries and periodontal status). METHODS : A systematic search of PubMed, LILACS, SciELO, PsyINFO, Cochrane and Google Scholar bibliographic databases was conducted looking for intervention studies that investigated MI as the main approach to improving the oral health outcomes investigated. RESULTS : Of the 78 articles found, ten met the inclusion criteria, all based on randomized controlled trials. Most studies (n = 8) assessed multiple outcomes. Five interventions assessed the impact of MI on oral health behaviors and nine on clinical outcomes (three on dental caries, six on dental plaque, four on gingivitis and three on periodontal pockets). Better quality of evidence was provided by studies that investigated dental caries, which also had the largest population samples. The evidence of the effect of MI on improving oral health outcomes is conflicting. Four studies reported positive effects of MI on oral health outcomes whereas another four showed null effect. In two interventions, the actual difference between groups was not reported or able to be recalculated. CONCLUSIONS : We found inconclusive effectiveness for most oral health outcomes. We need more and better designed and reported interventions to fully assess the impact of MI on oral health and understand the appropriate dosage for the counseling interventions.

Self-adaptive combination of global tabu search and local search for nonlinear equations

Solving systems of nonlinear equations is a very important task since the problems emerge mostly through the mathematical modelling of real problems that arise naturally in many branches of engineering and in the physical sciences. The problem can be naturally reformulated as a global optimization problem. In this paper, we show that a self-adaptive combination of a metaheuristic with a classical local search method is able to converge to some difficult problems that are not solved by Newton-type methods.

Resistance of Aedes aegypti to temephos and adaptive disadvantages

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the resistance of Aedes aegypti to temephos Fersol 1G (temephos 1% w/w) associated with the adaptive disadvantage of insect populations in the absence of selection pressure. METHODS A diagnostic dose of 0.28 mg a.i./L and doses between 0.28 mg a.i./L and 1.40 mg a.i./L were used. Vector populations collected between 2007 and 2008 in the city of Campina Grande, state of Paraíba, were evaluated. To evaluate competition in the absence of selection pressure, insect populations with initial frequencies of 20.0%, 40.0%, 60.0%, and 80.0% resistant individuals were produced and subjected to the diagnostic dose for two months. Evaluation of the development of aquatic and adult stages allowed comparison of the life cycles in susceptible and resistant populations and construction of fertility life tables. RESULTS No mortality was observed in Ae. aegypti populations subjected to the diagnostic dose of 0.28 mg a.i./L. The decreased mortality observed in populations containing 20.0%, 40.0%, 60.0%, and 80.0% resistant insects indicates that temephos resistance is unstable in the absence of selection pressure. A comparison of the life cycles indicated differences in the duration and viability of the larval phase, but no differences were observed in embryo development, sex ratio, adult longevity, and number of eggs per female. CONCLUSIONS The fertility life table results indicated that some populations had reproductive disadvantages compared with the susceptible population in the absence of selection pressure, indicating the presence of a fitness cost in populations resistant to temephos.

Cyclosporine versus tacrolimus: cost-effectiveness analysis for renal transplantation in Brazil

OBJECTIVE To analyze the cost-effectiveness of treatment regimens with cyclosporine or tacrolimus, five years after renal transplantation.METHODS This cost-effectiveness analysis was based on historical cohort data obtained between 2000 and 2004 and involved 2,022 patients treated with cyclosporine or tacrolimus, matched 1:1 for gender, age, and type and year of transplantation. Graft survival and the direct costs of medical care obtained from the National Health System (SUS) databases were used as outcome results.RESULTS Most of the patients were women, with a mean age of 36.6 years. The most frequent diagnosis of chronic renal failure was glomerulonephritis/nephritis (27.7%). In five years, the tacrolimus group had an average life expectancy gain of 3.96 years at an annual cost of R$78,360.57 compared with the cyclosporine group with a gain of 4.05 years and an annual cost of R$61,350.44.CONCLUSIONS After matching, the study indicated better survival of patients treated with regimens using tacrolimus. However, regimens containing cyclosporine were more cost-effective.

Adaptive tackling of the swinging problem for a 2 DOF crane – payload system

The control of a crane carrying its payload by an elastic string corresponds to a task in which precise, indirect control of a subsystem dynamically coupled to a directly controllable subsystem is needed. This task is interesting since the coupled degree of freedom has little damping and it is apt to keep swinging accordingly. The traditional approaches apply the input shaping technology to assist the human operator responsible for the manipulation task. In the present paper a novel adaptive approach applying fixed point transformations based iterations having local basin of attraction is proposed to simultaneously tackle the problems originating from the imprecise dynamic model available for the system to be controlled and the swinging problem, too. The most important phenomenological properties of this approach are also discussed. The control considers the 4th time-derivative of the trajectory of the payload. The operation of the proposed control is illustrated via simulation results.

Fixed point transformations in the adaptive control of fractional-order MIMO systems

Though the formal mathematical idea of introducing noninteger order derivatives can be traced from the 17th century in a letter by L’Hospital in which he asked Leibniz what the meaning of D n y if n = 1/2 would be in 1695 [1], it was better outlined only in the 19th century [2, 3, 4]. Due to the lack of clear physical interpretation their first applications in physics appeared only later, in the 20th century, in connection with visco-elastic phenomena [5, 6]. The topic later obtained quite general attention [7, 8, 9], and also found new applications in material science [10], analysis of earth-quake signals [11], control of robots [12], and in the description of diffusion [13], etc.

Intra-hospital organ and tissue donation coordination project: cost-effectiveness and social benefits

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the viability of a professional specialist in intra-hospital committees of organ and tissue donation for transplantation. METHODS Epidemiological, retrospective and cross-sectional study (2003-2011 and 2008-2012), which was performed using organ donation for transplants data in the state of Sao Paulo, Southeastern Brazil. Nine hospitals were evaluated (hospitals 1 to 9). Logistic regression was used to evaluate the differences in the number of brain death referrals and actual donors (dependent variables) after the professional specialist started work (independent variable) at the intra-hospital committee of organ and tissue donation for transplantation. To evaluate the hospital invoicing, the hourly wage of the doctor and registered nurse, according to the legislation of the Consolidation of Labor Laws, were calculated, as were the investment return and the time elapsed to do so. RESULTS Following the nursing specialist commencement on the committee, brain death referrals and the number of actual donors increased at hospital 2 (4.17 and 1.52, respectively). At hospital 7, the number of actual donors also increased from 0.005 to 1.54. In addition, after the nurse started working, hospital revenues increased by 190.0% (ranging 40.0% to 1.955%). The monthly cost for the nurse working 20 hours was US$397.97 while the doctor would cost US$3,526.67. The return on investment was 275% over the short term (0.36 years). CONCLUSIONS This paper showed that including a professional specialist in intra-hospital committees for organ and tissue donation for transplantation proved to be cost-effective. Further economic research in the area could contribute to the efficient public policy implementation of this organ and tissue harvesting model.