Comparing hybrid data assimilation methods on the Lorenz 1963 model with increasing nonlinearity

We systematically compare the performance of ETKF-4DVAR, 4DVAR-BEN and 4DENVAR with respect to two traditional methods (4DVAR and ETKF) and an ensemble transform Kalman smoother (ETKS) on the Lorenz 1963 model. We specifically investigated this performance with increasing nonlinearity and using a quasi-static variational assimilation algorithm as a comparison. Using the analysis root mean square error (RMSE) as a metric, these methods have been compared considering (1) assimilation window length and observation interval size and (2) ensemble size to investigate the influence of hybrid background error covariance matrices and nonlinearity on the performance of the methods. For short assimilation windows with close to linear dynamics, it has been shown that all hybrid methods show an improvement in RMSE compared to the traditional methods. For long assimilation window lengths in which nonlinear dynamics are substantial, the variational framework can have diffculties fnding the global minimum of the cost function, so we explore a quasi-static variational assimilation (QSVA) framework. Of the hybrid methods, it is seen that under certain parameters, hybrid methods which do not use a climatological background error covariance do not need QSVA to perform accurately. Generally, results show that the ETKS and hybrid methods that do not use a climatological background error covariance matrix with QSVA outperform all other methods due to the full flow dependency of the background error covariance matrix which also allows for the most nonlinearity.

A model analysis of climate and CO2 controls on tree growth in a semi-arid woodland

We used a light-use efficiency model of photosynthesis coupled with a dynamic carbon allocation and tree-growth model to simulate annual growth of the gymnosperm Callitris columellaris in the semi-arid Great Western Woodlands, Western Australia, over the past 100 years. Parameter values were derived from independent observations except for sapwood specific respiration rate, fine-root turnover time, fine-root specific respiration rate and the ratio of fine-root mass to foliage area, which were estimated by Bayesian optimization. The model reproduced the general pattern of interannual variability in radial growth (tree-ring width), including the response to the shift in precipitation regimes that occurred in the 1960s. Simulated and observed responses to climate were consistent. Both showed a significant positive response of tree-ring width to total photosynthetically active radiation received and to the ratio of modeled actual to equilibrium evapotranspiration, and a significant negative response to vapour pressure deficit. However, the simulations showed an enhancement of radial growth in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration (ppm) ([CO2]) during recent decades that is not present in the observations. The discrepancy disappeared when the model was recalibrated on successive 30-year windows. Then the ratio of fine-root mass to foliage area increases by 14% (from 0.127 to 0.144 kg C m-2) as [CO2] increased while the other three estimated parameters remained constant. The absence of a signal of increasing [CO2] has been noted in many tree-ring records, despite the enhancement of photosynthetic rates and water-use efficiency resulting from increasing [CO2]. Our simulations suggest that this behaviour could be explained as a consequence of a shift towards below-ground carbon allocation.

Effect of surface restoring on subsurface variability in a climate model during 1949-2005

Initializing the ocean for decadal predictability studies is a challenge, as it requires reconstructing the little observed subsurface trajectory of ocean variability. In this study we explore to what extent surface nudging using well-observed sea surface temperature (SST) can reconstruct the deeper ocean variations for the 1949–2005 period. An ensemble made with a nudged version of the IPSLCM5A model and compared to ocean reanalyses and reconstructed datasets. The SST is restored to observations using a physically-based relaxation coefficient, in contrast to earlier studies, which use a much larger value. The assessment is restricted to the regions where the ocean reanalyses agree, i.e. in the upper 500 m of the ocean, although this can be latitude and basin dependent. Significant reconstruction of the subsurface is achieved in specific regions, namely region of subduction in the subtropical Atlantic, below the thermocline in the equatorial Pacific and, in some cases, in the North Atlantic deep convection regions. Beyond the mean correlations, ocean integrals are used to explore the time evolution of the correlation over 20-year windows. Classical fixed depth heat content diagnostics do not exhibit any significant reconstruction between the different existing observation-based references and can therefore not be used to assess global average time-varying correlations in the nudged simulations. Using the physically based average temperature above an isotherm (14 °C) alleviates this issue in the tropics and subtropics and shows significant reconstruction of these quantities in the nudged simulations for several decades. This skill is attributed to the wind stress reconstruction in the tropics, as already demonstrated in a perfect model study using the same model. Thus, we also show here the robustness of this result in an historical and observational context.

The water vapour continuum in near-infrared windows – current understanding and prospects for its inclusion in spectroscopic databases

Spectroscopic catalogues, such as GEISA and HITRAN, do not yet include information on the water vapour continuum that pervades visible, infrared and microwave spectral regions. This is partly because, in some spectral regions, there are rather few laboratory measurements in conditions close to those in the Earth’s atmosphere; hence understanding of the characteristics of the continuum absorption is still emerging. This is particularly so in the near-infrared and visible, where there has been renewed interest and activity in recent years. In this paper we present a critical review focusing on recent laboratory measurements in two near-infrared window regions (centred on 4700 and 6300 cm−1) and include reference to the window centred on 2600 cm−1 where more measurements have been reported. The rather few available measurements, have used Fourier transform spectroscopy (FTS), cavity ring down spectroscopy, optical-feedback – cavity enhanced laser spectroscopy and, in very narrow regions, calorimetric interferometry. These systems have different advantages and disadvantages. Fourier Transform Spectroscopy can measure the continuum across both these and neighbouring windows; by contrast, the cavity laser techniques are limited to fewer wavenumbers, but have a much higher inherent sensitivity. The available results present a diverse view of the characteristics of continuum absorption, with differences in continuum strength exceeding a factor of 10 in the cores of these windows. In individual windows, the temperature dependence of the water vapour self-continuum differs significantly in the few sets of measurements that allow an analysis. The available data also indicate that the temperature dependence differs significantly between different near-infrared windows. These pioneering measurements provide an impetus for further measurements. Improvements and/or extensions in existing techniques would aid progress to a full characterisation of the continuum – as an example, we report pilot measurements of the water vapour self-continuum using a supercontinuum laser source coupled to an FTS. Such improvements, as well as additional measurements and analyses in other laboratories, would enable the inclusion of the water vapour continuum in future spectroscopic databases, and therefore allow for a more reliable forward modelling of the radiative properties of the atmosphere. It would also allow a more confident assessment of different theoretical descriptions of the underlying cause or causes of continuum absorption.

NeXSPheRIO results on azimuthal anisotropy in Au-Au collisions at 200 A GeV

In this work, we present the results obtained by the hydrodynamic code NeXSPheRIO on anisotropic flows. In our calculation, we made use of event-by-event fluctuating initial conditions and chemical freeze-out was explicitly implemented. We studied directed flow, elliptic flow and forth harmonic coefficient for various hadrons at different centrality windows for Au+Au collisions at 200 A GeV. The results are discussed and compared with experimental data from RHIC.

Microgranitic Enclaves as Products of Self-mixing Events: a Study of Open-system Processes in the Maua Granite, Sao Paulo, Brazil, Based on in situ Isotopic and Trace Elements in Plagioclase

Felsic microgranular enclaves with structures indicating that they interacted in a plastic state with their chemically similar host granite are abundant in the Maua Pluton, SE Brazil. Larger plagioclase xenocrysts are in textural disequilibrium with the enclave groundmass and show complex zoning patterns with partially resorbed An-rich cores (locally with patchy textures) surrounded by more sodic rims. In situ laser ablation-(multi-collector) inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry trace element and Sr isotopic analyses performed on the plagioclase xenocrysts indicate open-system crystallization; however, no evidence of derivation from more primitive basic melts is observed. The An-rich cores have more radiogenic initial Sr isotopic ratios that decrease towards the outermost part of the rims, which are in isotopic equilibrium with the matrix plagioclase. These profiles may have been produced by either (1) diffusional re-equilibration after rim crystallization from the enclave-forming magma, as indicated by relatively short calculated residence times, or (2) episodic contamination with a decrease of the contaminant ratio proportional to the extent to which the country rocks were isolated by the crystallization front. Profiles of trace elements with high diffusion coefficients would require unrealistically long residence times, and can be modeled in terms of fractional crystallization. A combination of trace element and Sr isotope data suggests that the felsic microgranular enclaves from the Maua Pluton are the products of interaction between end-member magmas that had similar compositions, thus recording `self-mixing` events.

Gelatin-based protonic electrolyte for electrochromic windows

Proton-conducting gel polymer electrolytes based on gelatin plasticized with glycerol and containing acetic acid were investigated, characterized, and applied to electrochromic window. For glycerol contents varying from 7% to 48%, the conductivity of the uniform and predominantly amorphous gel electrolyte was found to follow a Vogel-Tamman-Fulcher behavior with the temperature. Typically, for the electrolyte chosen to make 7 x 2 cm(2) electrochromic smart window with the configuration: glass/fluor-doped tin oxide (FTO)/WO(3)/gelatin electrolyte/CeO(2)-TiO(2)/FTO/glass and containing 28% of glycerol, the conductivities were found to be of the order of 5 x 10(-5) S/cm at room temperature and 3.6 x 10(-4) S/cm at 80 A degrees C. The device was characterized by spectroelectrochemical techniques and was tested up to 10,000 cycles showing a fast coloring/bleaching behavior, where the coloring process was achieved in 10 s and the bleaching in 2 s. The transmission variation at the wavelength of 550 nm was about 15%. The cyclic voltammograms showed a very good reversibility of the cathodic/anodic processes, and the charge density was about 3.5 mC/cm(2). The memory tests showed that the transmittance in the colored state increased by 8% in 90 min after removing the potential.

Meeting the Standards: An Analysis of Eight Grade Educational Assesment Test Scores in Maine

This paper examines the impact of socioeconomic factors on eighth grade achievement test scores in the face of federal and state initiatives for educational reform in Maine. We use student-level data over a five year period to provide a framework for understanding the policy implications of these initiatives. We model performance on standardized tests using a seemingly unrelated regressions approach and then determine the likelihood of meeting the standards defined by the adequate yearly progress requirements of the No Child Left Behind Act and Maine Learning Results initiatives. Our results indicate that the key factors influencing a student’s test scores include the education of a student’s parents, special services received for learning disabilities, and alternative measures of academic achievement.

Analysis of Optimum Location, Viability, and Potential Effects of Wind Farm Construction in Maine

Maine has the highest potential for wind energy in New England and falls within the top twenty states in the nation. It falls just behind Wisconsin and California with an estimate electrical output of 56 billion kWhs. The geological makeup of Maine’s mountains in the western part of the state, and the exposed coastline provide opportune areas to capture wind and convert it into energy. The information included in this poster will suggest the most likely areas for wind development based on a number of factors as recommended by the American Wind Energy Association.

MODELING ICE COVER ON TRAILS AT GRAND CANYON NATIONAL PARK

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SOLAR PANEL MODELING ON SUITABLE ROOFS AT COLBY

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ANALYSIS OF FUTURE CONSTRUCTION POSSIBILITIES ON THE COLBY COLLEGE CAMPUS

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LIGHT COVERAGE ON COLBY COLLEGE CAMPUS

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WIND TURBINE VISIBILITY ON THE COLBY CAMPUS

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The Cultural Construction of the Maine Sporting Camps

Maine sporting camps were a cultural and social phenomenon of the urban upper and middle class. They originated in Maine in the late 1870s and early 1880s and reached their zenith around the turn of the century with over 160 in operation in eight of the sixteen counties in Maine in 1906. The period from 1880 until World War I can be considered the 'golden era' of the Maine sporting camps. After the war, with technological advancements such as the outboard motor, the proliferation of the automobile, and the introduction of a road system into rural Maine, the camps underwent significant change that warrants an entirely different cultural analysis. A number of elements came together to produce a cultural atmosphere permissive of sporting camp creation in Maine. These include changing national views upon nature, health, sport and the leisure time in which to pursue them. In the late nineteenth century, with the rise of large industrially based cities, overcrowding fostered crime and disease. An upper and middle class emerged that desired escape and separation from the lower classes. Maine was chosen for such an escape because it offered, through sporting camps, a chance to "get back to nature," by pursuing the healthful activities of hunting and fishing. At the same time these urban sportsmen and sportswomen distinguished themselves on the social Hierarchical scale from the rural inhabitants. What happened in rural Maine during the period between 1880 and World War I was the introduction of a new cultural order on the landscape. Coming primarily from urban centers on the East Coast of the United States were men, women and children who looked to Maine for vacations. These vacations were designed to put them in touch with nature by pursuing healthful activities, especially those of fishing and hunting. Coming from an environment that emphasized social standing, they ensured that these trips would perpetuate this hierarchy. They experienced nature through the Maine sporting camps, which provided them with the services and skills necessary to experience it while enjoying a degree of luxury that they were accustomed to in the urban world. The Maine sporting camps were a cultural manifestation of the urban upper and middle class, the groups that the camps were established to serve. Despite this the camps did not represent a structural duplication of urban society. Instead, the camps represented a cultural construction that was produced by interaction between members of two different conceptual and physical worlds, the blending of which, on a social level, was determined by urban mentality and rural knowledge. In the production of a cultural world meaningful to the clients, the rural world of the Maine woods was altered to meet their needs. It was not a one-sided process, however, as the clients were forced to acknowledge the importance of the rural inhabitants on the basis of their value to the clients.