NONLINEAR TIME SERIES/SYSTEM ANALYSIS (STATE-SPACE, DYNAMICS, INTERVENTION, RESILIENCE, KALMAN)

A discussion of nonlinear dynamics, demonstrated by the familiar automobile, is followed by the development of a systematic method of analysis of a possibly nonlinear time series using difference equations in the general state-space format. This format allows recursive state-dependent parameter estimation after each observation thereby revealing the dynamics inherent in the system in combination with random external perturbations.^ The one-step ahead prediction errors at each time period, transformed to have constant variance, and the estimated parametric sequences provide the information to (1) formally test whether time series observations y(,t) are some linear function of random errors (ELEM)(,s), for some t and s, or whether the series would more appropriately be described by a nonlinear model such as bilinear, exponential, threshold, etc., (2) formally test whether a statistically significant change has occurred in structure/level either historically or as it occurs, (3) forecast nonlinear system with a new and innovative (but very old numerical) technique utilizing rational functions to extrapolate individual parameters as smooth functions of time which are then combined to obtain the forecast of y and (4) suggest a measure of resilience, i.e. how much perturbation a structure/level can tolerate, whether internal or external to the system, and remain statistically unchanged. Although similar to one-step control, this provides a less rigid way to think about changes affecting social systems.^ Applications consisting of the analysis of some familiar and some simulated series demonstrate the procedure. Empirical results suggest that this state-space or modified augmented Kalman filter may provide interesting ways to identify particular kinds of nonlinearities as they occur in structural change via the state trajectory.^ A computational flow-chart detailing computations and software input and output is provided in the body of the text. IBM Advanced BASIC program listings to accomplish most of the analysis are provided in the appendix. ^

Irrigated agriculture: Water resources management for a sustainable environment

In the last decade, research on irrigation has mainly been aimed at reducing crop water consumption. In arid and semi-arid environments, in relation to the limited water resources, the use of low quality water in agriculture has also been investigated in order to detect their effects on soil physical properties and on crop production. More recently, even the reduction of energy consumption in agriculture, as well as the effects of external factors, climate change and agricultural policies, have been major research interests. All these objectives have been considered in the papers included in this special issue. However, in the last years, approaches aimed at reducing crop water requirements have significantly changed. Remote sensing with satellites or unmanned vehicles, and vegetation spectral measurements, among others, represent in fact the newest frontier of existing technologies. Knowledge of soil hydraulic properties, often forgotten because of the difficulty of their estimation, can also be considered as a new way to reduce water consumption.

Integrated Water Resources Management: Principles for Coordination in the Coal River Watershed, West Virginia

Mountaintop removal (MTR) coal mining has had a significant influence on the water sources within the Coal River watershed of West Virginia. Using an approach such as Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) may improve management for the long-term protection and sustainability of the Coal River watershed‰Ûªs water resources. This Capstone project analyzes current site-specific information related to water quality and quantity and the impacts of MTR in the region, reviews current management challenges, and identifies key stakeholders to be included in IWRM planning. This information provided a foundation for the development of a preliminary IWRM coordination plan for the Coal River watershed based on IWRM principles and guidelines. It is hoped that this preliminary plan will contribute to the development of a final coordinated IWRM plan.

New Orleans, Louisiana, Water Distribution System, 1902 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Map of the city of New Orleans : showing proposed water distribution system, [by] Sewerage and Water Board New Orleans, LA.; Geo. G. Earl, genl. sup't. It was published by the Sewerage and Water Board New Orleans in 1902. Scale [ca. 1:50,900]. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Louisiana State Plane Coordinate System, South NAD83 (in Feet) (Fipszone 1702). All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows water distribution features such as existing and proposed water mains (with sizes), suction pipes, and water purification station sites. Also shows other features such as roads, canals, levees, drainage, cemeteries, Parish boundaries, and more. Shaded to show built-up and unbuilt areas for construction. This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from The Harvard Map Collection as part of the Imaging the Urban Environment project. Maps selected for this project represent major urban areas and cities of the world, at various time periods. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features at a large scale. The selection represents a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates, scales, and purposes.

Strategic Water Resources in Central Asia: in search of a new international legal order. EUCAM Policy Brief No. 14, May 2010

The allocation and use of the water resources of Central Asia is one of the most difficult issues to arise out of the break-up of the Soviet Union. How should the waters of the great Central Asian rivers, the Syr Darya and Amu Darya, be used? To generate much needed hydropower electricity in the mountainous countries in which they arise? Or for irrigation in the energy-rich downstream countries? The aim of this paper is to describe the basic problem and the efforts undertaken both by the Central Asian states and the international community, including the EU, to seek a resolution. It traces recent developments relating to the planned construction of dams, the modification of energy supplies and the periodic issue of increasingly bellicose statements from the capitals of the region. Finally it looks into the challenge for establishing a modern international legal order to govern the region's strategic water resources.

System Analysis of Innovative Projects in Mechanical Engineering

Modern production and innovation processes in industrial corporations differ by complex nature of modern technologies and organizational solutions. Adequate methodological approaches to their analysis and evaluation of efficiency are required. The present study contains the conceptand the model of operational and innovation program for which formulated theoretical and methodological principles and systematic statement of the general problem of planning, designed to optimize the process of resource usage under different criteria, including: investment, financial, technological, industrial and information capabilities of the corporation.